Cortical and subcortical brain networks predict prevailing heart rate.

Resting heart rate may confer risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other adverse cardiovascular events. While the brainstem's autonomic control over heart rate is well established, less is known about the regulatory role of higher level cortical and subcortical brain regions, especially in humans. This study sought to characterize the brain networks that predict variation in prevailing heart rate in otherwise healthy adults. We used machine learning approaches designed for complex, high-dimensional data sets, to predict variation in instantaneous heart period (the inter-heartbeat-interval) from whole-brain hemodynamic signals measured by fMRI. Task-based and resting-state fMRI, as well as peripheral physiological recordings, were taken from two data sets that included extensive repeated measurements within individuals. Our models reliably predicted instantaneous heart period from whole-brain fMRI data both within and across individuals, with prediction accuracies being highest when measured within-participants. We found that a network of cortical and subcortical brain regions, many linked to visceral motor and visceral sensory processes, were reliable predictors of variation in heart period. This adds to evidence on brain-heart interactions and constitutes an incremental step toward developing clinically applicable biomarkers of brain contributions to CVD risk.

Integrating across neuroimaging modalities boosts prediction accuracy of cognitive ability.

Variation in cognitive ability arises from subtle differences in underlying neural architecture. Understanding and predicting individual variability in cognition from the differences in brain networks requires harnessing the unique variance captured by different neuroimaging modalities. Here we adopted a multi-level machine learning approach that combines diffusion, functional, and structural MRI data from the Human Connectome Project (N = 1050) to provide unitary prediction models of various cognitive abilities: global cognitive function, fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, impulsivity, spatial orientation, verbal episodic memory and sustained attention. Out-of-sample predictions of each cognitive score were first generated using a sparsity-constrained principal component regression on individual neuroimaging modalities. These individual predictions were then aggregated and submitted to a LASSO estimator that removed redundant variability across channels. This stacked prediction led to a significant improvement in accuracy, relative to the best single modality predictions (approximately 1% to more than 3% boost in variance explained), across a majority of the cognitive abilities tested. Further analysis found that diffusion and brain surface properties contribute the most to the predictive power. Our findings establish a lower bound to predict individual differences in cognition using multiple neuroimaging measures of brain architecture, both structural and functional, quantify the relative predictive power of the different imaging modalities, and reveal how each modality provides unique and complementary information about individual differences in cognitive function.

Interaction Information Along Lifespan of the Resting Brain Dynamics Reveals a Major Redundant Role of the Default Mode Network.

Interaction Information (II) generalizes the univariate Shannon entropy to triplets of variables, allowing the detection of redundant (R) or synergetic (S) interactions in dynamical networks. Here, we calculated II from functional magnetic resonance imaging data and asked whether R or S vary across brain regions and along lifespan. Preserved along lifespan, we found high overlapping between the pattern of high R and the default mode network, whereas high values of S were overlapping with different cognitive domains, such as spatial and temporal memory, emotion processing and motor skills. Moreover, we have found a robust balance between R and S among different age intervals, indicating informational compensatory mechanisms in brain networks.

Cortical and subcortical brain networks predict prevailing heart rate.

Resting heart rate may confer risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other adverse cardiovascular events. While the brainstem's autonomic control over heart rate is well established, less is known about the regulatory role of higher-level cortical and subcortical brain regions, especially in humans. The present study sought to characterize the brain networks that predict variation in prevailing heart rate in otherwise healthy adults. We used machine learning approaches designed for complex, high-dimensional datasets, to predict variation in instantaneous heart period (the inter-heartbeat-interval) from whole brain hemodynamic signals measured by fMRI. Task-based and resting-state fMRI, as well as peripheral physiological recordings, were taken from two datasets that included extensive repeated measurements within individuals. Our models reliably predicted instantaneous heart period from whole brain fMRI data both within and across individuals, with prediction accuracies being highest when measured within-participants. We found that a network of cortical and subcortical brain regions, many linked to psychological stress, were reliable predictors of variation in heart period. This adds to evidence on brain-heart interactions and constitutes an incremental step towards developing clinically-applicable biomarkers of brain contributions to CVD risk.

Cortical network reconfiguration aligns with shifts of basal ganglia and cerebellar influence.

Mammalian functional architecture flexibly adapts, transitioning from integration where information is distributed across the cortex, to segregation where information is focal in densely connected communities of brain regions. This flexibility in cortical brain networks is hypothesized to be driven by control signals originating from subcortical pathways, with the basal ganglia shifting the cortex towards integrated processing states and the cerebellum towards segregated states. In a sample of healthy human participants (N=242), we used fMRI to measure temporal variation in global brain networks while participants performed two tasks with similar cognitive demands (Stroop and Multi-Source Inference Task (MSIT)). Using the modularity index, we determined cortical networks shifted from integration (low modularity) at rest to high modularity during easier i.e. congruent (segregation). Increased task difficulty (incongruent) resulted in lower modularity in comparison to the easier counterpart indicating more integration of the cortical network. Influence of basal ganglia and cerebellum was measured using eigenvector centrality. Results correlated with decreases and increases in cortical modularity respectively, with only the basal ganglia influence preceding cortical integration. Our results support the theory the basal ganglia shifts cortical networks to integrated states due to environmental demand. Cerebellar influence correlates with shifts to segregated cortical states, though may not play a causal role.

Similarity in evoked responses does not imply similarity in macroscopic network states.

It is commonplace in neuroscience to assume that if two tasks activate the same brain areas in the same way, then they are recruiting the same underlying networks. Yet computational theory has shown that the same pattern of activity can emerge from many different underlying network representations. Here we evaluated whether similarity in activation necessarily implies similarity in network architecture by comparing region-wise activation patterns and functional correlation profiles from a large sample of healthy subjects (N = 242). Participants performed two executive control tasks known to recruit nearly identical brain areas, the color-word Stroop task and the Multi-Source Interference Task (MSIT). Using a measure of instantaneous functional correlations, based on edge time series, we estimated the task-related networks that differed between incongruent and congruent conditions. We found that the two tasks were much more different in their network profiles than in their evoked activity patterns at different analytical levels, as well as for a wide range of methodological pipelines. Our results reject the notion that having the same activation patterns means two tasks engage the same underlying representations, suggesting that task representations should be independently evaluated at both node and edge (connectivity) levels.

As a dynamical system, the brain can encode information at the module (e.g., brain regions) or the network level (e.g., connections between brain regions). This means that two tasks can produce the same pattern of activation, but differ in their network profile. Here we tested this using two tasks with largely similar cognitive requirements. Despite producing nearly identical macroscopic activation patterns, the two tasks produced different functional network profiles. These findings confirm prior theoretical work that similarity in task activation does not imply the same similarity in underlying network states.

Stressor-evoked brain activity, cardiovascular reactivity, and subclinical atherosclerosis in midlife adults.

Background: Cardiovascular responses to psychological stressors have been separately associated with preclinical atherosclerosis and hemodynamic brain activity patterns across different studies and cohorts; however, what has not been established is whether cardiovascular stress responses reliably link indicators of stressor-evoked brain activity and preclinical atherosclerosis that have been measured in the same individuals. Accordingly, the present study used cross-validation and predictive modeling to test for the first time whether stressor-evoked systolic blood pressure (SBP) responses statistically mediated the association between concurrently measured brain activity and a vascular marker of preclinical atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries. Methods: 624 midlife adults (aged 28-56 years, 54.97% female) from two different cohorts underwent two information-conflict fMRI tasks, with concurrent SBP measures collected. Carotid artery intima-media thickness (CA-IMT) was measured by ultrasonography. A mediation framework that included harmonization, cross-validation, and penalized principal component regression was then employed, while significant areas in possible direct and indirect effects were identified through bootstrapping. Sensitivity analysis further tested the robustness of findings after accounting for prevailing levels of cardiovascular disease risk and brain imaging data quality control. Results: Task-averaged patterns of hemodynamic brain responses exhibited a generalizable association with CA-IMT, which was mediated by an area-under-the-curve measure of aggregate SBP reactivity. Importantly, this effect held in sensitivity analyses. Implicated brain areas in this mediation included the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, insula and amygdala. Conclusions: These novel findings support a link between stressor-evoked brain activity and preclinical atherosclerosis accounted for by individual differences in corresponding levels of stressor-evoked cardiovascular reactivity.

Competing neural representations of choice shape evidence accumulation in humans.

Making adaptive choices in dynamic environments requires flexible decision policies. Previously, we showed how shifts in outcome contingency change the evidence accumulation process that determines decision policies. Using in silico experiments to generate predictions, here we show how the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic (CBGT) circuits can feasibly implement shifts in decision policies. When action contingencies change, dopaminergic plasticity redirects the balance of power, both within and between action representations, to divert the flow of evidence from one option to another. When competition between action representations is highest, the rate of evidence accumulation is the lowest. This prediction was validated in in vivo experiments on human participants, using fMRI, which showed that (1) evoked hemodynamic responses can reliably predict trial-wise choices and (2) competition between action representations, measured using a classifier model, tracked with changes in the rate of evidence accumulation. These results paint a holistic picture of how CBGT circuits manage and adapt the evidence accumulation process in mammals.

The Neurogenetics of Functional Connectivity Alterations in Autism: Insights From Subtyping in 657 Individuals.

BACKGROUND: There is little consensus and controversial evidence on anatomical alterations in the brains of people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), due in part to the large heterogeneity present in ASD, which in turn is a major drawback for developing therapies. One strategy to characterize this heterogeneity in ASD is to cluster large-scale functional brain connectivity profiles. METHODS: A subtyping approach based on consensus clustering of functional brain connectivity patterns was applied to a population of 657 autistic individuals with quality-assured neuroimaging data. We then used high-resolution gene transcriptomic data to characterize the molecular mechanism behind each subtype by performing enrichment analysis of the set of genes showing a high spatial similarity with the profiles of functional connectivity alterations between each subtype and a group of typically developing control participants. RESULTS: Two major stable subtypes were found: subtype 1 exhibited hypoconnectivity (less average connectivity than typically developing control participants) and subtype 2, hyperconnectivity. The 2 subtypes did not differ in structural imaging metrics in any of the analyzed regions (68 cortical and 14 subcortical) or in any of the behavioral scores (including IQ, Autism Diagnostic Interview, and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule). Finally, only subtype 2, comprising about 43% of ASD participants, led to significant enrichments after multiple testing corrections. Notably, the dominant enrichment corresponded to excitation/inhibition imbalance, a leading well-known primary mechanism in the pathophysiology of ASD. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support a link between excitation/inhibition imbalance and functional connectivity alterations, but only in one ASD subtype, overall characterized by brain hyperconnectivity and major alterations in somatomotor and default mode networks.

Effects of a laboratory-based aerobic exercise intervention on brain volume and cardiovascular health markers: protocol for a randomised clinical trial.

INTRODUCTION: Physical activity (PA) has beneficial effects on brain health and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Yet, we know little about whether PA-induced changes to physiological mediators of CVD risk influence brain health and whether benefits to brain health may also explain PA-induced improvements to CVD risk. This study combines neurobiological and peripheral physiological methods in the context of a randomised clinical trial to better understand the links between exercise, brain health and CVD risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this 12-month trial, 130 healthy individuals between the ages of 26 and 58 will be randomly assigned to either: (1) moderate-intensity aerobic PA for 150 min/week or (2) a health information control group. Cardiovascular, neuroimaging and PA measurements will occur for both groups before and after the intervention. Primary outcomes include changes in (1) brain structural areas (ie, hippocampal volume); (2) systolic blood pressure (SBP) responses to functional MRI cognitive stressor tasks and (3) heart rate variability. The main secondary outcomes include changes in (1) brain activity, resting state connectivity, cortical thickness and cortical volume; (2) daily life SBP stress reactivity; (3) negative and positive affect; (4) baroreflex sensitivity; (5) pulse wave velocity; (6) endothelial function and (7) daily life positive and negative affect. Our results are expected to have both mechanistic and public health implications regarding brain-body interactions in the context of cardiovascular health. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the University of Pittsburgh Institutional Review Board (IRB ID: 19020218). This study will comply with the NIH Data Sharing Policy and Policy on the Dissemination of NIH-Funded Clinical Trial Information and the Clinical Trials Registration and Results Information Submission rule. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03841669.

Pirin is a prognostic marker of human melanoma that dampens the proliferation of malignant cells by downregulating JARID1B/KDM5B expression.

Originally considered to act as a transcriptional co-factor, Pirin has recently been reported to play a role in tumorigenesis and the malignant progression of many tumors. Here, we have analyzed the diagnostic and prognostic value of Pirin expression in the early stages of melanoma, and its role in the biology of melanocytic cells. Pirin expression was analyzed in a total of 314 melanoma biopsies, correlating this feature with the patient's clinical course. Moreover, PIR downregulated primary melanocytes were analyzed by RNA sequencing, and the data obtained were validated in human melanoma cell lines overexpressing PIR by functional assays. The immunohistochemistry multivariate analysis revealed that early melanomas with stronger Pirin expression were more than twice as likely to develop metastases during the follow-up. Transcriptome analysis of PIR downregulated melanocytes showed a dampening of genes involved in the G1/S transition, cell proliferation, and cell migration. In addition, an in silico approach predicted that JARID1B as a potential transcriptional regulator that lies between PIR and its downstream modulated genes, which was corroborated by co-transfection experiments and functional analysis. Together, the data obtained indicated that Pirin could be a useful marker for the metastatic progression of melanoma and that it participates in the proliferation of melanoma cells by regulating the slow-cycling JARID1B gene.

Melanoma Clinical Decision Support System: An Artificial Intelligence-Based Tool to Diagnose and Predict Disease Outcome in Early-Stage Melanoma Patients.

This study set out to assess the performance of an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm based on clinical data and dermatoscopic imaging for the early diagnosis of melanoma, and its capacity to define the metastatic progression of melanoma through serological and histopathological biomarkers, enabling dermatologists to make more informed decisions about patient management. Integrated analysis of demographic data, images of the skin lesions, and serum and histopathological markers were analyzed in a group of 196 patients with melanoma. The interleukins (ILs) IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, and IL-17A as well as IFNγ (interferon), GM-CSF (granulocyte and macrophage colony-stimulating factor), TGFß (transforming growth factor), and the protein DCD (dermcidin) were quantified in the serum of melanoma patients at the time of diagnosis, and the expression of the RKIP, PIRIN, BCL2, BCL3, MITF, and ANXA5 proteins was detected by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in melanoma biopsies. An AI algorithm was used to improve the early diagnosis of melanoma and to predict the risk of metastasis and of disease-free survival. Two models were obtained to predict metastasis (including "all patients" or only patients "at early stages of melanoma"), and a series of attributes were seen to predict the progression of metastasis: Breslow thickness, infiltrating BCL-2 expressing lymphocytes, and IL-4 and IL-6 serum levels. Importantly, a decrease in serum GM-CSF seems to be a marker of poor prognosis in patients with early-stage melanomas.

Integrating multiple brain imaging modalities does not boost prediction of subclinical atherosclerosis in midlife adults.

BACKGROUND: Human neuroimaging evidence suggests that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk may relate to functional and structural features of the brain. The present study tested whether combining functional and structural (multimodal) brain measures, derived from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), would yield a multivariate brain biomarker that reliably predicts a subclinical marker of CVD risk, carotid-artery intima-media thickness (CA-IMT). METHODS: Neuroimaging, cardiovascular, and demographic data were assessed in 324 midlife and otherwise healthy adults who were free of (a) clinical CVD and (b) use of medications for chronic illnesses (aged 30-51 years, 49% female). We implemented a prediction stacking algorithm that combined multimodal brain imaging measures and Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) to predict CA-IMT. We included imaging measures that could be easily obtained in clinical settings: resting state functional connectivity and structural morphology measures from T1-weighted images. RESULTS: Our models reliably predicted CA-IMT using FRS, as well as for several individual MRI measures; however, none of the individual MRI measures outperformed FRS. Moreover, stacking functional and structural brain measures with FRS did not boost prediction accuracy above that of FRS alone. CONCLUSIONS: Combining multimodal functional and structural brain measures through a stacking algorithm does not appear to yield a reliable brain biomarker of subclinical CVD, as reflected by CA-IMT.

Multivariate Brain Activity while Viewing and Reappraising Affective Scenes Does Not Predict the Multiyear Progression of Preclinical Atherosclerosis in Otherwise Healthy Midlife Adults.

Cognitive reappraisal is an emotion regulation strategy that is postulated to reduce risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly the risk due to negative affect. At present, however, the brain systems and vascular pathways that may link reappraisal to CVD risk remain unclear. This study thus tested whether brain activity evoked by using reappraisal to reduce negative affect would predict the multiyear progression of a vascular marker of preclinical atherosclerosis and CVD risk: carotid artery intima-media thickness (CA-IMT). Participants were 176 otherwise healthy adults (50.6% women; aged 30-51 years) who completed a functional magnetic resonance imaging task involving the reappraisal of unpleasant scenes from the International Affective Picture System. Ultrasonography was used to compute CA-IMT at baseline and a median of 2.78 (interquartile range, 2.67 to 2.98) years later among 146 participants. As expected, reappraisal engaged brain systems implicated in emotion regulation. Reappraisal also reduced self-reported negative affect. On average, CA-IMT progressed over the follow-up period. However, multivariate and cross-validated machine-learning models demonstrated that brain activity during reappraisal failed to predict CA-IMT progression. Contrary to hypotheses, brain activity during cognitive reappraisal to reduce negative affect does not appear to forecast the progression of a vascular marker of CVD risk. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42761-021-00098-y.

The roles of history, chance, and natural selection in the evolution of antibiotic resistance.

History, chance, and selection are the fundamental factors that drive and constrain evolution. We designed evolution experiments to disentangle and quantify effects of these forces on the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Previously, we showed that selection of the pathogen Acinetobacter baumannii in both structured and unstructured environments containing the antibiotic ciprofloxacin produced distinct genotypes and phenotypes, with lower resistance in biofilms as well as collateral sensitivity to ß-lactam drugs (Santos-Lopez et al., 2019). Here we study how this prior history influences subsequent evolution in new ß-lactam antibiotics. Selection was imposed by increasing concentrations of ceftazidime and imipenem and chance differences arose as random mutations among replicate populations. The effects of history were reduced by increasingly strong selection in new drugs, but not erased, at times revealing important contingencies. A history of selection in structured environments constrained resistance to new drugs and led to frequent loss of resistance to the initial drug by genetic reversions and not compensatory mutations. This research demonstrates that despite strong selective pressures of antibiotics leading to genetic parallelism, history can etch potential vulnerabilities to orthogonal drugs.

RKIP Regulates Differentiation-Related Features in Melanocytic Cells.

Raf Kinase Inhibitor Protein (RKIP) has been extensively reported as an inhibitor of key signaling pathways involved in the aggressive tumor phenotype and shows decreased expression in several types of cancers. However, little is known about RKIP in melanoma or regarding its function in normal cells. We examined the role of RKIP in both primary melanocytes and malignant melanoma cells and evaluated its diagnostic and prognostic value. IHC analysis revealed a significantly higher expression of RKIP in nevi compared with early-stage (stage I-II, AJCC 8th) melanoma biopsies. Proliferation, wound healing, and collagen-coated transwell assays uncovered the implication of RKIP on the motility but not on the proliferative capacity of melanoma cells as RKIP protein levels were inversely correlated with the migration capacity of both primary and metastatic melanoma cells but did not alter other parameters. As shown by RNA sequencing, endogenous RKIP knockdown in primary melanocytes triggered the deregulation of cellular differentiation-related processes, including genes (i.e., ZEB1, THY-1) closely related to the EMT. Interestingly, NANOG was identified as a putative transcriptional regulator of many of the deregulated genes, and RKIP was able to decrease the activation of the NANOG promoter. As a whole, our data support the utility of RKIP as a diagnostic marker for early-stage melanomas. In addition, these findings indicate its participation in the maintenance of a differentiated state of melanocytic cells by modulating genes intimately linked to the cellular motility and explain the progressive decrease of RKIP often described in tumors.

Affective brain patterns as multivariate neural correlates of cardiovascular disease risk.

This study tested whether brain activity patterns evoked by affective stimuli relate to individual differences in an indicator of pre-clinical atherosclerosis: carotid artery intima-media thickness (CA-IMT). Adults (aged 30-54 years) completed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) tasks that involved viewing three sets of affective stimuli. Two sets included facial expressions of emotion, and one set included neutral and unpleasant images from the International Affective Picture System (IAPS). Cross-validated, multivariate and machine learning models showed that individual differences in CA-IMT were partially predicted by brain activity patterns evoked by unpleasant IAPS images, even after accounting for age, sex and known cardiovascular disease risk factors. CA-IMT was also predicted by brain activity patterns evoked by angry and fearful faces from one of the two stimulus sets of facial expressions, but this predictive association did not persist after accounting for known cardiovascular risk factors. The reliability (internal consistency) of brain activity patterns evoked by affective stimuli may have constrained their prediction of CA-IMT. Distributed brain activity patterns could comprise affective neural correlates of pre-clinical atherosclerosis; however, the interpretation of such correlates may depend on their psychometric properties, as well as the influence of other cardiovascular risk factors and specific affective cues.

Brain connectivity and cognitive functioning in individuals six months after multiorgan failure.

Multiorgan failure (MOF) is a life-threating condition that affects two or more systems of organs not involved in the disorder that motivates admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Patients who survive MOF frequently present long-term functional, neurological, cognitive, and psychiatric sequelae. However, the changes to the brain that explain such symptoms remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine brain connectivity and cognitive functioning differences between a group of MOF patients six months after ICU discharge and healthy controls (HC). METHODS: 22 MOF patients and 22 HC matched by age, sex, and years of education were recruited. Both groups were administered a 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including structural T1 and functional BOLD, as well as a comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation that included tests of learning and memory, speed of information processing and attention, executive function, visual constructional abilities, and language. Voxel-based morphometry was used to analyses T1 images. For the functional data at rest, functional connectivity (FC) analyses were performed. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in structural imaging and neuropsychological performance between groups, even though patients with MOF performed worse in all the cognitive tests. Functional neuroimaging in the default mode network (DMN) showed hyper-connectivity towards sensory-motor, cerebellum, and visual networks. DMN connectivity had a significant association with the severity of MOF during ICU stay and with the neuropsychological scores in tests of attention and visual constructional abilities. CONCLUSIONS: In MOF patients without structural brain injury, DMN connectivity six months after ICU discharge is associated with MOF severity and neuropsychological impairment, which supports the use of resting-state functional MRI as a potential tool to predict the onset of long-term cognitive deficits in these patients. Similar to what occurs at the onset of other pathologies, the observed hyper-connectivity might suggest network re-adaptation following MOF.

BRAF V600E mutational load as a prognosis biomarker in malignant melanoma.

Analyzing the mutational load of driver mutations in melanoma could provide valuable information regarding its progression. We aimed at analyzing the heterogeneity of mutational load of BRAF V600E in biopsies of melanoma patients of different stages, and investigating its potential as a prognosis factor. Mutational load of BRAF V600E was analyzed by digital PCR in 78 biopsies of melanoma patients of different stages and 10 nevi. The BRAF V600E load was compared among biopsies of different stages. Results showed a great variability in the load of V600E (0%-81%). Interestingly, we observed a significant difference in the load of V600E between the early and late melanoma stages, in the sense of an inverse correlation between BRAF V600E mutational load and melanoma progression. In addition, a machine learning approach showed that the mutational load of BRAF V600E could be a good predictor of metastasis in stage II patients. Our results suggest that BRAF V600E is a promising biomarker of prognosis in stage II patients.

Serum markers improve current prediction of metastasis development in early-stage melanoma patients: a machine learning-based study.

Metastasis development represents an important threat for melanoma patients, even when diagnosed at early stages and upon removal of the primary tumor. In this scenario, determination of prognostic biomarkers would be of great interest. Serum contains information about the general status of the organism and therefore represents a valuable source for biomarkers. Thus, we aimed to define serological biomarkers that could be used along with clinical and histopathological features of the disease to predict metastatic events on the early-stage population of patients. We previously demonstrated that in stage II melanoma patients, serum levels of dermcidin (DCD) were associated with metastatic progression. Based on the relevance of the immune response on the cancer progression and the recent association of DCD with local and systemic immune response against cancer cells, serum DCD was analyzed in a new cohort of patients along with interleukin 4 (IL-4), IL-6, IL-10, IL-17A, interferon γ (IFN-γ), transforming growth factor-ß (TGF- ß), and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF). We initially recruited 448 melanoma patients, 323 of whom were diagnosed as stages I-II according to AJCC. Levels of selected cytokines were determined by ELISA and Luminex, and obtained data were analyzed employing machine learning and Kaplan-Meier techniques to define an algorithm capable of accurately classifying early-stage melanoma patients with a high and low risk of developing metastasis. The results show that in early-stage melanoma patients, serum levels of the cytokines IL-4, GM-CSF, and DCD together with the Breslow thickness are those that best predict melanoma metastasis. Moreover, resulting algorithm represents a new tool to discriminate subjects with good prognosis from those with high risk for a future metastasis.