Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions.

Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.

Investigation of urinary volatile organic compounds as novel diagnostic and surveillance biomarkers of bladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis and surveillance of urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) require cystoscopy. There is a need for biomarkers to reduce the frequency of cystoscopy in surveillance; urinary volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis could fulfil this role. This cross-sectional study compared the VOC profiles of patients with and without UBC, to investigate metabolomic signatures as biomarkers. METHODS: Urine samples were collected from haematuria clinic patients undergoing diagnostic cystoscopy and UBC patients undergoing surveillance. Urinary headspace sampling utilised solid-phase microextraction and VOC analysis applied gas chromatography-mass spectrometry; the output underwent metabolomic analysis. RESULTS: The median participant age was 70 years, 66.2% were male. Of the haematuria patients, 21 had a new UBC diagnosis, 125 had no cancer. In the surveillance group, 75 had recurrent UBC, 84 were recurrence-free. A distinctive VOC profile was observed in UBC patients compared with controls. Ten VOCs had statistically significant abundances useful to classify patients (false discovery rate range 1.9 × 10-7-2.8 × 10-2). Two prediction models were evaluated using internal validation. An eight-VOC diagnostic biomarker panel achieved AUROC 0.77 (sensitivity 0.71, specificity 0.72). A six-VOC surveillance biomarker panel obtained AUROC 0.80 (sensitivity 0.71 and specificity 0.80). CONCLUSIONS: Urinary VOC analysis could aid the diagnosis and surveillance of UBC.

Individual repeatability of avian migration phenology: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Changes in phenology and distribution are being widely reported for many migratory species in response to shifting environmental conditions. Understanding these changes and the situations in which they occur can be aided by understanding consistent individual differences in phenology and distribution and the situations in which consistency varies in strength or detectability. Studies tracking the same individuals over consecutive years are increasingly reporting migratory timings to be a repeatable trait, suggesting that flexible individual responses to environmental conditions may contribute little to population-level changes in phenology and distribution. However, how this varies across species and sexes, across the annual cycle and in relation to study (tracking method, study design) and/or ecosystem characteristics is not yet clear. Here, we take advantage of the growing number of publications in movement ecology to perform a phylogenetic multilevel meta-analysis of repeatability estimates for avian migratory timings to investigate these questions. Of 2,433 reviewed studies, 54 contained suitable information for meta-analysis, resulting in 177 effect sizes from 47 species. Individual repeatability of avian migratory timings averaged 0.414 (95% confidence interval: 0.3-0.5) across landbirds, waterbirds and seabirds, suggesting consistent individual differences in migratory timings is a common feature of migratory systems. Timing of departure from the non-breeding grounds was more repeatable than timings of arrival at or departure from breeding grounds, suggesting that conditions encountered on migratory journeys and outcome of breeding attempts can influence individual variation. Population-level shifts in phenology could arise through individual timings changing with environmental conditions and/or through shifts in the numbers of individuals with different timings. Our findings suggest that, in addition to identifying the conditions associated with individual variation in phenology, exploring the causes of between-individual variation will be key in predicting future rates and directions of changes in migratory timings. We therefore encourage researchers to report the within- and between- individual variance components underpinning the reported repeatability estimates to aid interpretation of migration behaviour. In addition, the lack of studies in the tropics means that levels of repeatability in less strongly seasonal environments are not yet clear.

Overlap between marine predators and proposed Marine Managed Areas on the Patagonian Shelf.

Static (fixed-boundary) protected areas are key ocean conservation strategies, and marine higher predator distribution data can play a leading role toward identifying areas for conservation action. The Falkland Islands are a globally significant site for colonial breeding marine higher predators (i.e., seabirds and pinnipeds). However, overlap between marine predators and Falkland Islands proposed Marine Managed Areas (MMAs) has not been quantified. Hence, to provide information required to make informed decisions regarding the implementation of proposed MMAs, our aims were to objectively assess how the proposed MMA network overlaps with contemporary estimates of marine predator distribution. We collated tracking data (1999-2019) and used a combination of kernel density estimation and model-based predictions of spatial usage to quantify overlap between colonial breeding marine predators and proposed Falkland Islands MMAs. We also identified potential IUCN Key Biodiversity Areas (pKBAs) using (1) kernel density based methods originally designed to identify Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) and (2) habitat preference models. The proposed inshore MMA, which extends three nautical miles from the Falkland Islands, overlapped extensively with areas used by colonial breeding marine predators. This reflects breeding colonies being distributed throughout the Falklands archipelago, and use being high adjacent to colonies due to central-place foraging constraints. Up to 45% of pKBAs identified via kernel density estimation were located within the proposed MMAs. In particular, the proposed Jason Islands Group MMA overlapped with pKBAs for three marine predator species, suggesting it is a KBA hot spot. However, tracking data coverage was incomplete, which biased pKBAs identified using kernel density methods, to colonies tracked. Moreover, delineation of pKBA boundaries were sensitive to the choice of smoothing parameter used in kernel density estimation. Delineation based on habitat model predictions for both sampled and unsampled colonies provided less biased estimates, and revealed 72% of the Falkland Islands Conservation Zone was likely a KBA. However, it may not be practical to consider such a large area for fixed-boundary management. In the context of wide-ranging marine predators, emerging approaches such as dynamic ocean management could complement static management frameworks such as MMAs, and provide protection at relevant spatiotemporal scales.

Sexual segregation in juvenile Antarctic fur seals.

Sexual segregation, the differential space, habitat or resource use by males and females, can have profound implications for conservation, as one sex may be more vulnerable to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. The drivers of sexual segregation, such as sex differences in body size, breeding constraints, and social behaviour, have been well studied in adults but are poorly understood in immature animals. To determine whether sexual segregation occurs in juvenile Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, and investigate the underlying drivers, we deployed Global Location Sensors on 26 males and 19 females of 1-3 years of age at Bird Island, South Georgia. Sexual segregation occurred in foraging distribution, primarily in latitude, with females foraging closer to South Georgia and the Polar Front, and males foraging further south near the Antarctic Peninsula. This segregation was particularly evident in Feb-Apr and May-Nov, and males spent more time hauled out than females in May-Nov. Although juveniles have no immediate reproductive commitments, reproductive selection pressures are still likely to operate and drive sex differences in body size, risk-taking, and social roles. These factors, coupled with prey distribution, likely contributed to sexual segregation in juvenile Antarctic fur seals. Consequently, male and female juveniles may compete with different fisheries and respond differently to environmental change, highlighting the importance of considering sex and age groups in species conservation efforts.

The potential of volatile organic compound analysis in cervicovaginal mucus to predict estrus and ovulation in estrus-synchronized heifers.

Cervicovaginal mucus is a mixture of mucins, ions, salts, and water, the proportions of which change during the reproductive cycle. It is suspected that this mucus emits an important volatile signal indicative of the reproductive state of the female. The objective of this study was to identify volatile organic compounds (VOC) in bovine cervicovaginal mucus that are modulated during the estrous cycle and could potentially be used as biomarkers of estrus and ovulation. Cervicovaginal mucus was collected from crossbred beef heifers (n = 8), which were synchronized using an 8-d controlled internal drug release (CIDR) protocol and in which onset of estrus and time of ovulation were determined by visual observation and ultrasonography, respectively. Mucus samples were collected between 0 and 96 h after CIDR removal (estrus onset occurred at 49.1 ± 3.3 h after CIDR removal). A validation study was performed on an independent group of 15 heifers from which cervicovaginal mucus samples were collected every 8 h from 40 to 80 h after CIDR removal. The VOC in mucus were identified using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and selected compounds were quantified using selected-ion flow-tube mass spectrometry. The presence of 47 VOC was detected in mucus samples by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry with those exhibiting highest abundance including 2-butanone, acetone, 2-pentanone, 4-methyl-2-pentanone, 1-(1-methylethoxy)-2-propanone, ethanol, 2-methyl-2-propanol, and 2-butanol. All VOC peaked between 24 to 47 h after the onset of estrus (ovulation occurred 26.6 ± 5.6 h after estrus onset). Two VOC, 2-pentanone and 4-methyl-2-pentanone, exhibited a significant increase at the onset of estrus, whereas concentration of 2-butanone increased significantly just after estrus onset, indicating that these VOC may be used as putative biomarkers of estrus. The results of our study may contribute to the development of a sensor device based on VOC to aid the detection of estrus and ovulation in cattle, with particular relevance for the dairy industry where the majority of females are bred by artificial insemination.

Hyphenated Mass Spectrometry versus Real-Time Mass Spectrometry Techniques for the Detection of Volatile Compounds from the Human Body.

Mass spectrometry (MS) is an analytical technique that can be used for various applications in a number of scientific areas including environmental, security, forensic science, space exploration, agri-food, and numerous others. MS is also continuing to offer new insights into the proteomic and metabolomic fields. MS techniques are frequently used for the analysis of volatile compounds (VCs). The detection of VCs from human samples has the potential to aid in the diagnosis of diseases, in monitoring drug metabolites, and in providing insight into metabolic processes. The broad usage of MS has resulted in numerous variations of the technique being developed over the years, which can be divided into hyphenated and real-time MS techniques. Hyphenated chromatographic techniques coupled with MS offer unparalleled qualitative analysis and high accuracy and sensitivity, even when analysing complex matrices (breath, urine, stool, etc.). However, these benefits are traded for a significantly longer analysis time and a greater need for sample preparation and method development. On the other hand, real-time MS techniques offer highly sensitive quantitative data. Additionally, real-time techniques can provide results in a matter of minutes or even seconds, without altering the sample in any way. However, real-time MS can only offer tentative qualitative data and suffers from molecular weight overlap in complex matrices. This review compares hyphenated and real-time MS methods and provides examples of applications for each technique for the detection of VCs from humans.

An Optimization of Liquid-Liquid Extraction of Urinary Volatile and Semi-Volatile Compounds and Its Application for Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry and Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy.

Urinary volatile compounds (VCs) have been recently assessed for disease diagnoses. They belong to very diverse chemical classes, and they are characterized by different volatilities, polarities and concentrations, complicating their analysis via a single analytical procedure. There remains a need for better, lower-cost methods for VC biomarker discovery. Thus, there is a strong need for alternative methods, enabling the detection of a broader range of VCs. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to optimize a simple and reliable liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) procedure for the analysis of VCs in urine using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), in order to obtain the maximum number of responses. Extraction parameters such as pH, type of solvent and ionic strength were optimized. Moreover, the same extracts were analyzed using Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (1H-NMR), to evaluate the applicability of a single urine extraction for multiplatform purposes. After the evaluation of experimental conditions, an LLE protocol using 2 mL of urine in the presence of 2 mL of 1 M sulfuric acid and sodium sulphate extracted with dichloromethane was found to be optimal. The optimized method was validated with the external standards and was found to be precise and linear, and allowed for detection of >400 peaks in a single run present in at least 50% of six samples-considerably more than the number of peaks detected by solid-phase microextracton fiber pre-concentration-GC-MS (328 ± 6 vs. 234 ± 4). 1H-NMR spectroscopy of the polar and non-polar extracts extended the range to >40 more (mainly low volatility compounds) metabolites (non-destructively), the majority of which were different from GC-MS. The more peaks detectable, the greater the opportunity of assessing a fingerprint of several compounds to aid biomarker discovery. In summary, we have successfully demonstrated the potential of LLE as a cheap and simple alternative for the analysis of VCs in urine, and for the first time the applicability of a single urine solvent extraction procedure for detecting a wide range of analytes using both GC-MS and 1H-NMR analysis to enhance putative biomarker detection. The proposed method will simplify the transport between laboratories and storage of samples, as compared to intact urine samples.

Niche partitioning of sympatric penguins by leapfrog foraging appears to be resilient to climate change.

Interspecific competition can drive niche partitioning along multidimensional axes, including allochrony. Competitor matching will arise where the phenology of sympatric species with similar ecological requirements responds to climate change at different rates such that allochrony is reduced. Our study quantifies the degree of niche segregation in foraging areas and depths that arises from allochrony in sympatric Adélie and chinstrap penguins and explores its resilience to climate change. Three-dimensional tracking data were sampled during all stages of the breeding season and were used to parameterise a behaviour-based model that quantified spatial overlap of foraging areas under different scenarios of allochrony. The foraging ranges of the two species were similar within breeding stages, but differences in their foraging ranges between stages, combined with the observed allochrony of 28 days, resulted in them leapfrogging each other through the breeding season such that they were exploiting different foraging locations on the same calendar dates. Allochrony reduced spatial overlap in the peripheral utilisation distribution of the two species by 54.0% over the entire breeding season, compared to a scenario where the two species bred synchronously. Analysis of long-term phenology data revealed that both species advanced their laying dates in relation to October air temperatures at the same rate, preserving allochrony and niche partitioning. However, if allochrony is reduced by just a single day, the spatial overlap of the core utilisation distribution increased by an average of 2.1% over the entire breeding season. Niche partitioning between the two species by allochrony appears to be resilient to climate change and so competitor matching cannot be implicated in the observed population declines of the two penguin species across the Western Antarctic Peninsula.