Variability of marine heatwaves' characteristics and assessment of their potential drivers in the Baltic Sea over the last 42 years.

This study examined Baltic Sea Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) using 42 years of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data. We found that MHWs in warmer months are more intense but shorter compared to MHWs in cooler months. Also, MHWs predominantly affect offshore areas in warmer months, whereas MHWs predominantly impacting coastal seas in cooler months, especially along the eastern coast. Our analysis of interannual variability revealed that, unlike in many other basins worldwide, Baltic MHWs tend to maintain a constant intensity, while their spatial extent has significantly increased over the last few decades. Shortwave radiation notably influences MHW intensity and spatial extent, with additional impacts from longwave radiation in cooler months and latent heat flux in warmer months. Northern Hemisphere teleconnections exhibit stronger correlations with MHWs in the Baltic Sea compared to global-scale climate oscillations, with the Eastern Atlantic pattern having a particularly significant effect on MHW variability in the region.

Sea surface circulation in the Baltic Sea: decomposed components and pattern recognition.

By decomposing the total sea surface current into its geostrophic and ageostrophic components, we examined the contribution of each to the long-term variability of the total sea surface current. Our findings demonstrate the importance of geostrophic currents in Baltic Sea gyre formations. Additionally, ageostrophic currents contribute significantly to the flow across the region. Quantifying the difference between total sea surface current fields has revealed two dominant general sea surface circulation patterns in the Baltic Sea, whose characteristics correspond to the monthly mean climatology of sea surface current fields in May and December. Subsequently, a machine learning technique was employed to effectively detect the types of sea surface circulation patterns using wind vectors and sea level anomaly fields. This underscored the combined influence of sea level anomaly-driven and wind-driven components in shaping surface current vectors in the Baltic Sea, consistent with geostrophic and ageostrophic decompositions.

Framework for the environmental impact assessment of operational shipping.

Shipping is an important source of pollution affecting both atmospheric and aquatic environments. To allow for efficient mitigation of environmental degradation, it is essential to know the extent of the impacts of shipping in relation to other sources of pollution. Here, we give a perspective on a holistic approach to studies of the environmental impacts of operational shipping through presentation of an assessment framework developed and applied on a case of shipping in the Baltic Sea. Through transfer of knowledge and concepts, previously used in assessments of air pollution, now applied to assessments of marine pollution and underwater noise, the horizon of understanding of shipping-related impacts is significantly improved. It identifies the main areas of environmental degradation caused by shipping and potential improvements through legislation and technological development. However, as the vast majority of contaminants discharged into the sea are not routinely monitored and assessed, the links between pressure of contaminants from shipping and environmental state and impacts will not be caught in the current environmental regulatory frameworks.

Assessing the potential for sea-based macroalgae cultivation and its application for nutrient removal in the Baltic Sea.

Marine eutrophication is a pervasive and growing threat to global sustainability. Macroalgal cultivation is a promising circular economy solution to achieve nutrient reduction and food security. However, the location of production hotspots is not well known. In this paper the production potential of macroalgae of high commercial value was predicted across the Baltic Sea region. In addition, the nutrient limitation within and adjacent to macroalgal farms was investigated to suggest optimal site-specific configuration of farms. The production potential of Saccharina latissima was largely driven by salinity and the highest production yields are expected in the westernmost Baltic Sea areas where salinity is >23. The direct and interactive effects of light availability, temperature, salinity and nutrient concentrations regulated the predicted changes in the production of Ulva intestinalis and Fucus vesiculosus. The western and southern Baltic Sea exhibited the highest farming potential for these species, with promising areas also in the eastern Baltic Sea. Macroalgal farming did not induce significant nutrient limitation. The expected spatial propagation of nutrient limitation caused by macroalgal farming was less than 100-250 m. Higher propagation distances were found in areas of low nutrient and low water exchange (e.g. offshore areas in the Baltic Proper) and smaller distances in areas of high nutrient and high water exchange (e.g. western Baltic Sea and Gulf of Riga). The generated maps provide the most sought-after input to support blue growth initiatives that foster the sustainable development of macroalgal cultivation and reduction of in situ nutrient loads in the Baltic Sea.

Modelling spatial dispersion of contaminants from shipping lanes in the Baltic Sea.

Major sources of pollution from shipping to marine environments are antifouling paint residues and discharges of bilge, black, grey and ballast water and scrubber discharge water. The dispersion of copper, zinc, naphthalene, pyrene, and dibromochloromethane have been studied using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model, the General Estuarine Transport Model, and the Eulerian tracer transport model in the Baltic Sea in 2012. Annual loads of the contaminants ranged from 10-2 tons for pyrene to 100 s of tons for copper. The dispersion of the contaminants is determined by the surface kinetic energy and vertical stratification at the location of the discharge. The elevated concentration of the contaminants at the surface persists for about two-days and the contaminants are dispersed over the spatial scale of 10-60 km. The Danish Sounds, the southwestern Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland are under the heaviest pressure of shipborne contaminants in the Baltic Sea.

Shipborne nutrient dynamics and impact on the eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.

The Baltic Sea is a severely eutrophicated sea-area where intense shipping as an additional nutrient source is a potential contributor to changes in the ecosystem. The impact of the two most important shipborne nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus, on the overall nutrient-phytoplankton-oxygen dynamics in the Baltic Sea was determined by using the coupled physical and biogeochemical model system General Estuarine Transport Model-Ecological Regional Ocean Model (GETM-ERGOM) in a cascade with the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. We compared two nutrient scenarios in the Baltic Sea: with (SHIP) and without nutrient input from ships (NOSHIP). The model uses the combined nutrient input from shipping-related waste streams and atmospheric depositions originating from the ship emission and calculates the effect of excess nutrients on the overall biogeochemical cycle, primary production, detritus formation and nutrient flows. The shipping contribution is about 0.3% of the total phosphorus and 1.25-3.3% of the total nitrogen input to the Baltic Sea, but their impact to the different biogeochemical variables is up to 10%. Excess nitrogen entering the N-limited system of the Baltic Sea slightly alters certain pathways: cyanobacteria growth is compromised due to extra nitrogen available for other functional groups while the biomass of diatoms and especially flagellates increases due to the excess of the limiting nutrient. In terms of the Baltic Sea ecosystem functioning, continuous input of ship-borne nitrogen is compensated by steady decrease of nitrogen fixation and increase of denitrification, which results in stationary level of total nitrogen content in the water. Ship-borne phosphorus input results in a decrease of phosphate content in the water and increase of phosphorus binding to sediments. Oxygen content in the water decreases, but reaches stationary state eventually.

Linking atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments: Regime shifts in the Estonian climate over the past 50 years.

Climate change in recent decades has been identified as a significant threat to natural environments and human wellbeing. This is because some of the contemporary changes to climate are abrupt and result in persistent changes in the state of natural systems; so called regime shifts (RS). This study aimed to detect and analyse the timing and strength of RS in Estonian climate at the half-century scale (1966-2013). We demonstrate that the extensive winter warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the late 1980s was represented in atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems to an extent not observed before or after the event within the studied time series. In 1989, abiotic variables displayed statistically significant regime shifts in atmospheric, river and marine systems, but not in lake and bog systems. This was followed by regime shifts in the biotic time series of bogs and marine ecosystems in 1990. However, many biotic time series lacked regime shifts, or the shifts were uncoupled from large-scale atmospheric circulation. We suggest that the latter is possibly due to complex and temporally variable interactions between abiotic and biotic elements with ecosystem properties buffering biotic responses to climate change signals, as well as being affected by concurrent anthropogenic impacts on natural environments.

Modelling the influence of Major Baltic Inflows on near-bottom conditions at the entrance of the Gulf of Finland.

A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991-2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.