Epidemic Characteristics and Meteorological Risk Factors of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome in 151 Cities in China From 2015 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continues to pose a significant public health threat to the population in China. Previous epidemiological evidence indicates that HFRS is climate sensitive and influenced by meteorological factors. However, past studies either focused on too-narrow geographical regions or investigated time periods that were too early. There is an urgent need for a comprehensive analysis to interpret the epidemiological patterns of meteorological factors affecting the incidence of HFRS across diverse climate zones. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to describe the overall epidemic characteristics of HFRS and explore the linkage between monthly HFRS cases and meteorological factors at different climate levels in China. METHODS: The reported HFRS cases and meteorological data were collected from 151 cities in China during the period from 2015 to 2021. We conducted a 3-stage analysis, adopting a distributed lag nonlinear model and a generalized additive model to estimate the interactions and marginal effects of meteorological factors on HFRS. RESULTS: This study included a total of 63,180 cases of HFRS; the epidemic trends showed seasonal fluctuations, with patterns varying across different climate zones. Temperature had the greatest impact on the incidence of HFRS, with the maximum hysteresis effects being at 1 month (-19 ºC; relative risk [RR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.24-2.15) in the midtemperate zone, 0 months (28 ºC; RR 3.15, 95% CI 2.13-4.65) in the warm-temperate zone, and 0 months (4 ºC; RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.31-2.25) in the subtropical zone. Interactions were discovered between the average temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation in different temperature zones. Moreover, the influence of precipitation and relative humidity on the incidence of HFRS had different characteristics under different temperature layers. The hysteresis effect of meteorological factors did not end after an epidemic season, but gradually weakened in the following 1 or 2 seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Weather variability, especially low temperature, plays an important role in epidemics of HFRS in China. A long hysteresis effect indicates the necessity of continuous intervention following an HFRS epidemic. This finding can help public health departments guide the prevention and control of HFRS and develop strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change in specific regions.

Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China.

China has experienced successive waves of dengue epidemics over the past decade. Nationwide data on 95,339 dengue cases, 89 surveillance sites for mosquito density and population mobility between 337 cities during 2013-20 were extracted. Weekly dengue time series including time trends and harmonic terms were fitted using seasonal regression models, and the amplitude and peak timing of the annual and semiannual cycles were estimated. A data-driven model-inference approach was used to simulate the epidemic at city-scale and estimate time-evolving epidemiological parameters. We found that the geographical distribution of dengue cases was expanding, and the main imported areas as well as external sources of imported cases changed. Dengue cases were predominantly concentrated in southern China and it exhibited an annual peak of activity, typically peaking in September. The annual amplitude of dengue epidemic varied with latitude (F = 19.62, P = 0.0001), mainly characterizing by large in southern cities and small in northern cities. The effective reproduction number Reff across cities is commonly greater than 1 in several specific months from July to November, further confirming the seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity of dengue epidemics. The results of this national study help to better informing interventions for future dengue epidemics in China.

[Efficacy Analysis of Unrelated Cord Blood Transplantation for High-Risk Refractory AML1-ETO Positive Myeloid Leukemia].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the clinical outcomes of engraftment, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and survival in the patients with AML1-ETO positive acute myeloid leukemia (AML) treated with unrelated umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT). METHODS: Forty-Five patients with high-risk refractory AML1-ETO positive AML were treated with a single UCBT in a single center from July 2010 to April 2018. All the patients underwent a myeloablative preconditioning regimen，and cyclosporine A (CSA) combined with mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) was used to prevent GVHD. RESULTS: The median value of total nucleated cells (TNC) in cord blood was 5.21 (1.96-12.68)×107/kg recipient body weight, and that of CD34+ cells was 5.61 (0.56-15.4)×105/kg recipient weight. The implantation rate of neutrophil at 42 d and that of platelet at 120 d were 95.6% and 86.7%, respectively. The median time of absolute neutrophil count (ANC)＞0.5×109/L and platelet 20×109/L were 16 (12-18) d and 37 (17-140) d after transplantation, respectively. The cumulative incidence of Ⅰ -Ⅳ grade acute GVHD (aGVHD) at 100 d after transplantation was 48.9% (95% CI 33.5%-62.6%), Ⅱ-Ⅳ grade aGVHD occurred in 12 cases (33.3%) (95% CI 20%-47.2%) , and Ⅲ-Ⅳ grade a GVHD in 8 cases (20%) (95% CI 9.8% -32.8%). In 5 cases of 40 patients survived over 100 days, the chronic GVHD (cGVHD) occurred after transplantation, among which 4 were localized, and 1 was extensive. 3 patients relapsed, and the 2-year cumulative relapse rate was 9.5% (95% CI 2.4%-22.8%). The median follow-up time was 23.5 (0.9-89.67) months, 10 patients died, 2-year disease-free survival rate (DFS) was 72.7%, and overall survival rate (OS) was 75.5%. Multivariate analysis showed that Ⅲ-Ⅳ. acute GVHD (aGVHD) affected overall survival. CONCLUSION: UCBT is an effective rescue treatment for patients with high-risk refractory AML1-ETO positive AML.