Land-use intensity influences European tetrapod food webs.

Land use intensification favours particular trophic groups which can induce architectural changes in food webs. These changes can impact ecosystem functions, services, stability and resilience. However, the imprint of land management intensity on food-web architecture has rarely been characterized across large spatial extent and various land uses. We investigated the influence of land management intensity on six facets of food-web architecture, namely apex and basal species proportions, connectance, omnivory, trophic chain lengths and compartmentalization, for 67,051 European terrestrial vertebrate communities. We also assessed the dependency of this influence of intensification on land use and climate. In addition to more commonly considered climatic factors, the architecture of food webs was notably influenced by land use and management intensity. Intensification tended to strongly lower the proportion of apex predators consistently across contexts. In general, intensification also tended to lower proportions of basal species, favoured mesopredators, decreased food webs compartmentalization whereas it increased their connectance. However, the response of food webs to intensification was different for some contexts. Intensification sharply decreased connectance in Mediterranean and Alpine settlements, and it increased basal tetrapod proportions and compartmentalization in Mediterranean forest and Atlantic croplands. Besides, intensive urbanization especially favoured longer trophic chains and lower omnivory. By favouring mesopredators in most contexts, intensification could undermine basal tetrapods, the cascading effects of which need to be assessed. Our results support the importance of protecting top predators where possible and raise questions about the long-term stability of food webs in the face of human-induced pressures.

Maximizing regional biodiversity requires a mosaic of protection levels.

Protected areas are the flagship management tools to secure biodiversity from anthropogenic impacts. However, the extent to which adjacent areas with distinct protection levels host different species numbers and compositions remains uncertain. Here, using reef fishes, European alpine plants, and North American birds, we show that the composition of species in adjacent Strictly Protected, Restricted, and Non-Protected areas is highly dissimilar, whereas the number of species is similar, after controlling for environmental conditions, sample size, and rarity. We find that between 12% and 15% of species are only recorded in Non-Protected areas, suggesting that a non-negligible part of regional biodiversity occurs where human activities are less regulated. For imperiled species, the proportion only recorded in Strictly Protected areas reaches 58% for fishes, 11% for birds, and 7% for plants, highlighting the fundamental and unique role of protected areas and their environmental conditions in biodiversity conservation.

Vegetation structure and climate shape mountain arthropod distributions across trophic levels.

Arthropods play a vital role in ecosystems; yet, their distributions remain poorly understood, particularly in mountainous regions. This study delves into the modelling of the distribution of 31 foliar arthropod genera in the French Alps, using a comprehensive approach encompassing multi-trophic sampling, community DNA metabarcoding and random forest models. The results underscore the significant importance of vegetation structure, such as herbaceous vegetation density, and forest density and heterogeneity, along with climate, in shaping the distributions of most arthropods. These responses to environmental gradients are consistent across trophic groups, with the exception of nectarivores, whose distributions are more sensitive to landscape structure and water availability. By leveraging community DNA metabarcoding, this study sheds light on the understudied drivers of arthropod distributions, emphasizing the importance of modelling across diverse trophic groups to anticipate arthropod responses to global change.

A spatially explicit trait-based approach uncovers changes in assembly processes under warming.

The re-assembly of plant communities during climate warming depends on several concurrent processes. Here, we present a novel framework that integrates spatially explicit sampling, plant trait information and a warming experiment to quantify shifts in these assembly processes. By accounting for spatial distance between individuals, our framework allows separation of potential signals of environmental filtering from those of different types of competition. When applied to an elevational transplant experiment in the French Alps, we found common signals of environmental filtering and competition in all communities. Signals of environmental filtering were generally stronger in alpine than in subalpine control communities, and warming reduced this filter. Competition signals depended on treatments and traits: Symmetrical competition was dominant in control and warmed alpine communities, while hierarchical competition was present in subalpine communities. Our study highlights how distance-dependent frameworks can contribute to a better understanding of transient re-assembly dynamics during environmental change.

Extent of intraspecific trait variability in ecologically central and marginal populations of a dominant alpine plant across European mountains.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studying trait variability and restricted gene flow between populations of species can reveal species dynamics. Peripheral populations commonly exhibit lower genetic diversity and trait variability due to isolation and ecological marginality, unlike central populations experiencing gene flow and optimal conditions. This study focused on Carex curvula, the dominant species in alpine acidic meadows of European mountain regions. The species is sparser in dry areas such as the Pyrenees and Balkans, compared to the Central-Eastern Alps and Carpathians. We hypothesized that distinct population groups could be identified based on their mean functional trait values and their correlation with the environment; we predicted that ecologically marginal populations would have stronger trait correlations, lower within-population trait variability (intraspecific trait variability, ITV) and lower genetic diversity than populations of optimal habitats. METHODS: Sampling was conducted in 34 populations that spanned the entire distribution range of C. curvula. We used hierarchical clustering to identify emergent functional groups of populations, defined by combinations of multiple traits associated with nutrient economy and drought tolerance (e.g. specific leaf area, anatomy). We contrasted the geographical distribution of these groups in relation to environment and genetic structure. We compared pairwise trait relationships, within-population trait variation (ITV) and neutral genetic diversity between groups. KEY RESULTS: Our study identified emergent functional groups of populations. Those in the southernmost ranges, specifically the Pyrenees and Balkan region, showed drought-tolerant trait syndromes and correlated with indicators of limited water availability. While we noted a decline in population genetic diversity, we did not observe any significant changes in ITV in ecologically marginal (peripheral) populations. CONCLUSIONS: Our research exemplifies the relationship between ecological marginality and geographical peripherality, which in this case study is linked to genetic depauperation but not to reduced ITV. Understanding these relationships is crucial for understanding the biogeographical factors shaping trait variation.

Climate-associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps.

Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could impede the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)-derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north-western and south-eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.

Landscape does matter: Disentangling founder effects from natural and human-aided post-introduction dispersal during an ongoing biological invasion.

Environmental features impacting the spread of invasive species after introduction can be assessed using population genetic structure as a quantitative estimation of effective dispersal at the landscape scale. However, in the case of an ongoing biological invasion, deciphering whether genetic structure represents landscape connectivity or founder effects is particularly challenging. We examined the modes of dispersal (natural and human-aided) and the factors (landscape or founders history) shaping genetic structure in range edge invasive populations of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in the region of Grenoble (Southeast France). Based on detailed occupancy-detection data and environmental variables (climatic, topographic and land-cover), we modelled A. albopictus potential suitable area and its expansion history since first introduction. The relative role of dispersal modes was estimated using biological dispersal capabilities and landscape genetics approaches using genome-wide SNP dataset. We demonstrate that both natural and human-aided dispersal have promoted the expansion of populations. Populations in diffuse urban areas, representing highly suitable habitat for A. albopictus, tend to disperse less, while roads facilitate long-distance dispersal. Yet, demographic bottlenecks during introduction played a major role in shaping the genetic variability of these range edge populations. The present study is one of the few investigating the role of founder effects and ongoing expansion processes in shaping spatial patterns of genetic variation in an invasive species at the landscape scale. The combination of several dispersal modes and large proportions of continuous suitable habitats for A. albopictus promoted range filling of almost its entire potential distribution in the region of Grenoble only few years after introduction.

Life-History Traits Evolved Jointly with Climatic Niche and Disturbance Regime in the Genus Leucadendron (Proteaceae).

Organisms have evolved a diversity of life-history strategies to cope with variation in their environment. Persistence as adults and/or seeds across recruitment events allows species to dampen the effects of environmental fluctuations. The evolution of life cycles with overlapping generations should thus permit the colonization of environments with uncertain recruitment. We tested this hypothesis in Leucadendron (Proteaceae), a genus with high functional diversity native to fire-prone habitats in the South African fynbos. We analyzed the joint evolution of life-history traits (adult survival and seed-bank strategies) and ecological niches (climate and fire regime), using comparative methods and accounting for various sources of uncertainty. In the fynbos, species with canopy seed banks that are unable to survive fire as adults display nonoverlapping generations. In contrast, resprouters with an underground seed bank may be less threatened by extreme climatic events and fire intervals, given their iteroparity and long-lasting seed bank. Life cycles with nonoverlapping generations indeed jointly evolved with niches with less exposure to frost but not with those with less exposure to drought. Canopy seed banks jointly evolved with niches with more predictable fire return, compared to underground seed banks. The evolution of extraordinary functional diversity among fynbos plants thus reflects, at least in part, the diversity of both climates and fire regimes in this region.

Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence.

Rare species support vulnerable functions in high-diversity ecosystems.

Around the world, the human-induced collapses of populations and species have triggered a sixth mass extinction crisis, with rare species often being the first to disappear. Although the role of species diversity in the maintenance of ecosystem processes has been widely investigated, the role of rare species remains controversial. A critical issue is whether common species insure against the loss of functions supported by rare species. This issue is even more critical in species-rich ecosystems where high functional redundancy among species is likely and where it is thus often assumed that ecosystem functioning is buffered against species loss. Here, using extensive datasets of species occurrences and functional traits from three highly diverse ecosystems (846 coral reef fishes, 2,979 alpine plants, and 662 tropical trees), we demonstrate that the most distinct combinations of traits are supported predominantly by rare species both in terms of local abundance and regional occupancy. Moreover, species that have low functional redundancy and are likely to support the most vulnerable functions, with no other species carrying similar combinations of traits, are rarer than expected by chance in all three ecosystems. For instance, 63% and 98% of fish species that are likely to support highly vulnerable functions in coral reef ecosystems are locally and regionally rare, respectively. For alpine plants, 32% and 89% of such species are locally and regionally rare, respectively. Remarkably, 47% of fish species and 55% of tropical tree species that are likely to support highly vulnerable functions have only one individual per sample on average. Our results emphasize the importance of rare species conservation, even in highly diverse ecosystems, which are thought to exhibit high functional redundancy. Rare species offer more than aesthetic, cultural, or taxonomic diversity value; they disproportionately increase the potential breadth of functions provided by ecosystems across spatial scales. As such, they are likely to insure against future uncertainty arising from climate change and the ever-increasing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems. Our results call for a more detailed understanding of the role of rarity and functional vulnerability in ecosystem functioning.

Mammalian phylogenetic diversity-area relationships at a continental scale.

In analogy to the species-area relationship (SAR), one of the few laws in ecology, the phylogenetic diversity-area relationship (PDAR) describes the tendency of phylogenetic diversity (PD) to increase with area. Although investigating PDAR has the potential to unravel the underlying processes shaping assemblages across spatial scales and to predict PD loss through habitat reduction, it has been little investigated so far. Focusing on PD has noticeable advantages compared to species richness (SR), since PD also gives insights on processes such as speciation/extinction, assembly rules and ecosystem functioning. Here we investigate the universality and pervasiveness of the PDAR at continental scale using terrestrial mammals as study case. We define the relative robustness of PD (compared to SR) to habitat loss as the area between the standardized PDAR and standardized SAR (i.e., standardized by the diversity of the largest spatial window) divided by the area under the standardized SAR only. This metric quantifies the relative increase of PD robustness compared to SR robustness. We show that PD robustness is higher than SR robustness but that it varies among continents. We further use a null model approach to disentangle the relative effect of phylogenetic tree shape and nonrandom spatial distribution of evolutionary history on the PDAR. We find that, for most spatial scales and for all continents except Eurasia, PDARs are not different from expected by a model using only the observed SAR and the shape of the phylogenetic tree at continental scale. Interestingly, we detect a strong phylogenetic structure of the Eurasian PDAR that can be predicted by a model that specifically account for a finer biogeographical delineation of this continent. In conclusion, the relative robustness of PD to habitat loss compared to species richness is determined by the phylogenetic tree shape but also depends on the spatial structure of PD.

Modelling snow cover duration improves predictions of functional and taxonomic diversity for alpine plant communities.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Quantifying relationships between snow cover duration and plant community properties remains an important challenge in alpine ecology. This study develops a method to estimate spatial variation in energy availability in the context of a topographically complex, high-elevation watershed, which was used to test the explanatory power of environmental gradients both with and without snow cover in relation to taxonomic and functional plant diversity. METHODS: Snow cover in the French Alps was mapped at 15-m resolution using Landsat imagery for five recent years, and a generalized additive model (GAM) was fitted for each year linking snow to time and topography. Predicted snow cover maps were combined with air temperature and solar radiation data at daily resolution, summed for each year and averaged across years. Equivalent growing season energy gradients were also estimated without accounting for snow cover duration. Relationships were tested between environmental gradients and diversity metrics measured for 100 plots, including species richness, community-weighted mean traits, functional diversity and hyperspectral estimates of canopy chlorophyll content. KEY RESULTS: Accounting for snow cover in environmental variables consistently led to improved predictive power as well as more ecologically meaningful characterizations of plant diversity. Model parameters differed significantly when fitted with and without snow cover. Filtering solar radiation with snow as compared without led to an average gain in R(2) of 0·26 and reversed slope direction to more intuitive relationships for several diversity metrics. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that in alpine environments high-resolution data on snow cover duration are pivotal for capturing the spatial heterogeneity of both taxonomic and functional diversity. The use of climate variables without consideration of snow cover can lead to erroneous predictions of plant diversity. The results further indicate that studies seeking to predict the response of alpine plant communities to climate change need to consider shifts in both temperature and nival regimes.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps.

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognised at local scales, but its importance for plant species distributions at larger spatial scales has generally been ignored. Tree cover modifies the local abiotic conditions below the canopy, notably by reducing light availability, and thus, also the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains, by affecting colonisation probabilities and local extinction risks of herbs and shrubs. To assess the effect of tree cover at both the plot- and landscape-grain sizes (approximately 10-m and 1-km), we fit Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) for the plot-level distributions of 960 species of herbs and shrubs using 6,935 vegetation plots across the European Alps. We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) at both spatial grains for each species. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-grain tree cover on plot-level plant communities. Finally, the effects on species-specific elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species distributions under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved the model performance, with the probability of the presence of shade-tolerant species increasing with increasing tree cover, whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both the plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit most strongly at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-level plant communities. With high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited narrower elevational ranges than with low tree cover whereas shade-tolerant species showed wider elevational ranges at both limits. These findings suggest that forecasts of climate-related range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modified by tree cover dynamics.

Impaired liver function in Xenopus tropicalis exposed to benzo[a]pyrene: transcriptomic and metabolic evidence.

BACKGROUND: Despite numerous studies suggesting that amphibians are highly sensitive to cumulative anthropogenic stresses, the role pollutants play in the decline of amphibian populations remains unclear. Amongst the most common aquatic contaminants, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been shown to induce several adverse effects on amphibian species in the larval stages. Conversely, adults exposed to high concentrations of the ubiquitous PAH, benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), tolerate the compound thanks to their highly efficient hepatic detoxification mechanisms. Due to this apparent lack of toxic effect on adults, no studies have examined in depth the potential toxicological impact of PAH on the physiology of adult amphibian livers. This study sheds light on the hepatic responses of Xenopus tropicalis when exposed to high environmentally relevant concentrations of BaP, by combining a high throughput transcriptomic approach (mRNA deep sequencing) and a characterization of cellular and physiological modifications to the amphibian liver. RESULTS: Transcriptomic changes observed in BaP-exposed Xenopus were further characterized using a time-dependent enrichment analysis, which revealed the pollutant-dependent gene regulation of important biochemical pathways, such as cholesterol biosynthesis, insulin signaling, adipocytokines signaling, glycolysis/gluconeogenesis and MAPK signaling. These results were substantiated at the physiological level with the detection of a pronounced metabolic disorder resulting in a possible insulin resistance-like syndrome phenotype. Hepatotoxicity induced by lipid and cholesterol metabolism impairments was clearly identified in BaP-exposed individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggested that BaP may disrupt overall liver physiology, and carbohydrate and cholesterol metabolism in particular, even after short-term exposure. These results are further discussed in terms of how this deregulation of liver physiology can lead to general metabolic impairment in amphibians chronically exposed to contaminants, thereby illustrating the role xenobiotics might play in the global decline in amphibian populations.

Scale decisions can reverse conclusions on community assembly processes.

AIM: Phylogenetic diversity patterns are increasingly being used to better understand the role of ecological and evolutionary processes in community assembly. Here, we quantify how these patterns are influenced by scale choices in terms of spatial and environmental extent and organismic scales. LOCATION: European Alps. METHODS: We applied 42 sampling strategies differing in their combination of focal scales. For each resulting sub-dataset, we estimated the phylogenetic diversity of the species pools, phylogenetic α-diversities of local communities, and statistics commonly used together with null models in order to infer non-random diversity patterns (i.e. phylogenetic clustering versus over-dispersion). Finally, we studied the effects of scale choices on these measures using regression analyses. RESULTS: Scale choices were decisive for revealing signals in diversity patterns. Notably, changes in focal scales sometimes reversed a pattern of over-dispersion into clustering. Organismic scale had a stronger effect than spatial and environmental extent. However, we did not find general rules for the direction of change from over-dispersion to clustering with changing scales. Importantly, these scale issues had only a weak influence when focusing on regional diversity patterns that change along abiotic gradients. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results call for caution when combining phylogenetic data with distributional data to study how and why communities differ from random expectations of phylogenetic relatedness. These analyses seem to be robust when the focus is on relating community diversity patterns to variation in habitat conditions, such as abiotic gradients. However, if the focus is on identifying relevant assembly rules for local communities, the uncertainty arising from a certain scale choice can be immense. In the latter case, it becomes necessary to test whether emerging patterns are robust to alternative scale choices.

Multifaceted diversity-area relationships reveal global hotspots of mammalian species, trait and lineage diversity.

AIM: To define biome-scale hotspots of phylogenetic and functional mammalian biodiversity (PD and FD, respectively) and compare them to 'classical' hotspots based on species richness (SR) only. LOCATION: Global. METHODS: SR, PD & FD were computed for 782 terrestrial ecoregions using distribution ranges of 4616 mammalian species. We used a set of comprehensive diversity indices unified by a recent framework that incorporates the species relative coverage in each ecoregion. We build large-scale multifaceted diversity-area relationships to rank ecoregions according to their levels of biodiversity while accounting for the effect of area on each diversity facet. Finally we defined hotspots as the top-ranked ecoregions. RESULTS: While ignoring species relative coverage led to a relative good congruence between biome top ranked SR, PD and FD hotspots, ecoregions harboring a rich and abundantly represented evolutionary history and functional diversity did not match with top ranked ecoregions defined by species richness. More importantly PD and FD hotspots showed important spatial mismatches. We also found that FD and PD generally reached their maximum values faster than species richness as a function of area. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The fact that PD/FD reach faster their maximal value than SR may suggest that the two former facets might be less vulnerable to habitat loss than the latter. While this point is expected, it is the first time that it is quantified at global scale and should have important consequences in conservation. Incorporating species relative coverage into the delineation of multifaceted hotspots of diversity lead to weak congruence between SR, PD and FD hotspots. This means that maximizing species number may fail at preserving those nodes (in the phylogenetic or functional tree) that are relatively abundant in the ecoregion. As a consequence it may be of prime importance to adopt a multifaceted biodiversity perspective to inform conservation strategies at global scale.

Long-term modeling of the forest-grassland ecotone in the French Alps: implications for land management and conservation.

Understanding decadal-scale land-cover changes has the potential to inform current conservation policies. European mountain landscapes that include numerous protected areas provide a unique opportunity to weigh the long-term influences of land-use practices and climate on forest-grassland ecotone dynamics. Aerial photographs from four dates (1948, 1978, 1993, and 2009) were used to quantify the extent of forest and grassland cover at 5-m resolution across a 150-km2 area in a protected area of the southwestern French Alps. The study area included a grazed zone and a nongrazed zone that was abandoned during the 1970s. We estimated time series of a forestation index (FI) and analyzed the effects of elevation and grazing on FI using a hierarchical linear mixed effect model. Forest extent (composed primarily of mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) expanded from 50.6 km2 in 1948 to 85.5 km2 in 2009, i.e., a 23% increase in relative cover at the expense of grassland communities. Over the sixty-year period, the treeline rose by 118 m, from 1564 to 1682 m. Rapid forest expansion within the nongrazed zone followed the cessation of logging activities and was likely accelerated by climate warming during the 1980s. Within the grazed zone, the maintained presence of sheep did not fully counteract mountain pine expansion and led to highly contrasting rates of land-cover change based on the location of shepherds' cabins and water sources. Projections of FI for 2030 showed remnant patches of intensively used grasslands interspersed in a densely forested matrix. Our analysis of mountain land-cover dynamics provided strong evidence for forest encroachment into grassland habitat despite consistent grazing pressure. This pattern may be attributed to the disappearance of traditional land-use practices such as shrub burning and removal. Our findings prompt land managers to reconsider their initial conservation priority (i.e., the protection of a renowned mountain pine forest) and to implement proactive management strategies in order to preserve landscape heterogeneity and biological diversity. Projecting historical trends in the forest-grassland ecotone to 2030 provides stakeholders with a policy relevant tool for near-term land management.

Are different facets of plant diversity well protected against climate and land cover changes? A test study in the French Alps.

Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions and diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although the need for a multifaceted view of diversity based on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there are no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used a range of species distribution models in an ensemble-forecasting framework together with regional climate and land cover projections by 2080 to analyze the potential threat for more than 2,500 plant species at high resolution (2.5 km × 2.5 km) in the French Alps. We also decomposed taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity facets into α and ß components and analyzed their expected changes by 2080. Overall, plant species threats from climate and land cover changes in the French Alps were expected to vary depending on the species' preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, and conservation status. Indeed, rare species and species of conservation concern were the ones projected to experience less severe change, and also the ones being the most efficiently preserved by the current network of protected areas. Conversely, the three facets of plant diversity were also projected to experience drastic spatial re-shuffling by 2080. In general, the mean α-diversity of the three facets was projected to increase to the detriment of regional ß-diversity, although the latter was projected to remain high at the montane-alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due to a high-altitude distribution, the current protection network is efficient for rare species, and species predicted to migrate upward. Although our modeling framework may not capture all possible mechanisms of species range shifts, our work illustrates that a comprehensive risk assessment on an entire floristic region combined with functional and phylogenetic information can help delimitate future scenarios of biodiversity and better design its protection.

The socioeconomic and environmental niche of protected areas reveals global conservation gaps and opportunities.

The global network of protected areas has rapidly expanded in the past decade and is expected to cover at least 30% of land and sea by 2030 to halt biodiversity erosion. Yet, the distribution of protected areas is highly heterogeneous on Earth and the social-environmental preconditions enabling or hindering protected area establishment remain poorly understood. Here, using fourteen socioeconomic and environmental factors, we characterize the multidimensional niche of terrestrial and marine protected areas, which we use to accurately establish, at the global scale, whether a particular location has preconditions favourable for paestablishment. We reveal that protected areas, particularly the most restrictive ones, over-aggregate where human development and the number of non-governmental organizations are high. Based on the spatial distribution of vertebrates and the likelihood to convert non-protected areas into strictly protected areas, we identify 'potential' versus 'unrealistic' conservation gains on land and sea, which we define as areas of high vertebrate diversity that are, respectively, favourable and unfavourable to protected area establishment. Where protected areas are unrealistic, alternative strategies such as other effective area-based conservation measures or privately protected areas, could deliver conservation outcomes.