A new approach to Health Benefits Package design: an application of the Thanzi La Onse model in Malawi.

An efficient allocation of limited resources in low-income settings offers the opportunity to improve population-health outcomes given the available health system capacity. Efforts to achieve this are often framed through the lens of "health benefits packages" (HBPs), which seek to establish which services the public healthcare system should include in its provision. Analytic approaches widely used to weigh evidence in support of different interventions and inform the broader HBP deliberative process however have limitations. In this work, we propose the individual-based Thanzi La Onse (TLO) model as a uniquely-tailored tool to assist in the evaluation of Malawi-specific HBPs while addressing these limitations. By mechanistically modelling-and calibrating to extensive, country-specific data-the incidence of disease, health-seeking behaviour, and the capacity of the healthcare system to meet the demand for care under realistic constraints on human resources for health available, we were able to simulate the health gains achievable under a number of plausible HBP strategies for the country. We found that the HBP emerging from a linear constrained optimisation analysis (LCOA) achieved the largest health gain-∼8% reduction in disability adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2023 and 2042 compared to the benchmark scenario-by concentrating resources on high-impact treatments. This HBP however incurred a relative excess in DALYs in the first few years of its implementation. Other feasible approaches to prioritisation were assessed, including service prioritisation based on patient characteristics, rather than service type. Unlike the LCOA-based HBP, this approach achieved consistent health gains relative to the benchmark scenario on a year- to-year basis, and a 5% reduction in DALYs over the whole period, which suggests an approach based upon patient characteristics might prove beneficial in the future.

Health workforce needs in Malawi: analysis of the Thanzi La Onse integrated epidemiological model of care.

BACKGROUND: To make the best use of health resources, it is crucial to understand the healthcare needs of a population-including how needs will evolve and respond to changing epidemiological context and patient behaviour-and how this compares to the capabilities to deliver healthcare with the existing workforce. Existing approaches to planning either rely on using observed healthcare demand from a fixed historical period or using models to estimate healthcare needs within a narrow domain (e.g., a specific disease area or health programme). A new data-grounded modelling method is proposed by which healthcare needs and the capabilities of the healthcare workforce can be compared and analysed under a range of scenarios: in particular, when there is much greater propensity for healthcare seeking. METHODS: A model representation of the healthcare workforce, one that formalises how the time of the different cadres is drawn into the provision of units of healthcare, was integrated with an individual-based epidemiological model-the Thanzi La Onse model-that represents mechanistically the development of disease and ill-health and patients' healthcare seeking behaviour. The model was applied in Malawi using routinely available data and the estimates of the volume of health service delivered were tested against officially recorded data. Model estimates of the "time needed" and "time available" for each cadre were compared under different assumptions for whether vacant (or established) posts are filled and healthcare seeking behaviour. RESULTS: The model estimates of volume of each type of service delivered were in good agreement with the available data. The "time needed" for the healthcare workforce greatly exceeded the "time available" (overall by 1.82-fold), especially for pharmacists (6.37-fold) and clinicians (2.83-fold). This discrepancy would be largely mitigated if all vacant posts were filled, but the large discrepancy would remain for pharmacists (2.49-fold). However, if all of those becoming ill did seek care immediately, the "time needed" would increase dramatically and exceed "time supply" (2.11-fold for nurses and midwives, 5.60-fold for clinicians, 9.98-fold for pharmacists) even when there were no vacant positions. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that services are being delivered in less time on average than they should be, or that healthcare workers are working more time than contracted, or a combination of the two. Moreover, the analysis shows that the healthcare system could become overwhelmed if patients were more likely to seek care. It is not yet known what the health consequences of such changes would be but this new model provides-for the first time-a means to examine such questions.

Supporting the revision of the health benefits package in Uganda: A constrained optimisation approach.

This study demonstrates how the linear constrained optimization approach can be used to design a health benefits package (HBP) which maximises the net disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted given the health system constraints faced by a country, and how the approach can help assess the marginal value of relaxing health system constraints. In the analysis performed for Uganda, 45 interventions were included in the HBP in the base scenario, resulting in a total of 26.7 million net DALYs averted. When task shifting of pharmacists' and nutrition officers' tasks to nurses is allowed, 73 interventions were included in the HBP resulting in a total of 32 million net DALYs averted (a 20% increase). Further, investing only $58 towards hiring additional nutrition officers' time could avert one net DALY; this increased to $60 and $64 for pharmacists and nurses respectively, and $100,000 for expanding the consumable budget, since human resources present the main constraint to the system.

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study.

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

A qualitative study on the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing health technology assessment in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. METHODS: This study employed a document review and qualitative research methods, to understand the status of HTA in Malawi. This was complemented by a review of the status and nature of HTA institutionalization in selected countries.Qualitative research employed a Focus Group Discussion (FGD ) with 7 participants, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with12 informants selected based on their knowledge and expertise in policy processes related to HTA in Malawi.Data extracted from the literature was organized in Microsoft Excel, categorized according to thematic areas and analyzed using a literature review framework. Qualitative data from KIIs and the FGD was analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach. RESULTS: Some HTA processes exist and are executed through three structures namely: Ministry of Health Senior Management Team, Technical Working Groups, and Pharmacy and Medicines Regulatory Authority (PMRA) with varyingdegrees of effectiveness.The main limitations of current HTA mechanisms include limited evidence use, lack of a standardized framework for technology adoption, donor pressure, lack of resources for the HTA process and technology acquisition, laws and practices that undermine cost-effectiveness considerations. KII and FGD results showed overwhelming demand for strengthening HTA in Malawi, with a stronger preference for strengthening coordination and capacity of existing entities and structures. CONCLUSION: The study has shown that HTA institutionalization is acceptable and feasible in Malawi. However, the current committee based processes are suboptimal to improve efficiency due to lack of a structured framework. A structured HTA framework has the potential to improve processes in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies decision-making.In the short to medium term, HTA capacity building should focus on generating demand and increasing capacity in cost-effectiveness assessments. Country-specific assessments should precede HTA institutionalization as well as recommendations for new technology adoptions.

Using Economic Evaluation to Inform Responses to the Opioid Epidemic in the United States: Challenges and Suggestions for Future Research.

Background: Several aspects of the opioid epidemic and of public health care organization in the United States (US) make the conduct of economic evaluation and the design of policies to respond to this crisis particularly challenging. Objectives: This commentary offers suggestions for how economic evaluation may address and overcome four key features of the opioid epidemic: 1) its magnitude and geographical distribution, 2) its intersection with multiple epidemics, 3) its rapidly changing dynamics, 4) its multi-sectoral causes and consequences. Results: We first offer pragmatic suggestions to address the difficulties in delivering a coordinated response given the fragmented nature of health care in the US. In view of the broad suite of responses required to address opioid use disorder and its associated comorbidities, we highlight the need for economic evaluations which consider interventions throughout the continuum of care (i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary levels of prevention). We examine how the use of predictive modelling alongside economic evaluation might be adopted to address the rapidly evolving situation affecting distinct populations and geographic areas and encourage investments in epidemic preparedness. Finally, we propose methods to capture the interdependence of various sectors of government affected by the opioid crisis in economic evaluations to ensure optimal levels of investment towards a comprehensive response. Conclusions: The opioid epidemic in the US represents an unprecedented public health challenge, but sound epidemiological modelling and economic analysis can help to guide use of limited resources committed to addressing it in ways that can have greatest impact in limiting its adverse consequences.

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance.

INTRODUCTION: Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation. METHODS: We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (1) PrEP availability for adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years and female sex workers, and (2) availability for everyone aged 15-64 years. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programs. RESULTS: In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 years, there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24 years. PrEP was cost-effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective.

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Sustainable HIV treatment in Africa through viral-load-informed differentiated care.

There are inefficiencies in current approaches to monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients typically attend clinics every 1 to 3 months for clinical assessment. The clinic costs are comparable with the costs of the drugs themselves and CD4 counts are measured every 6 months, but patients are rarely switched to second-line therapies. To ensure sustainability of treatment programmes, a transition to more cost-effective delivery of antiretroviral therapy is needed. In contrast to the CD4 count, measurement of the level of HIV RNA in plasma (the viral load) provides a direct measure of the current treatment effect. Viral-load-informed differentiated care is a means of tailoring care so that those with suppressed viral load visit the clinic less frequently and attention is focussed on those with unsuppressed viral load to promote adherence and timely switching to a second-line regimen. The most feasible approach to measuring viral load in many countries is to collect dried blood spot samples for testing in regional laboratories; however, there have been concerns over the sensitivity and specificity of this approach to define treatment failure and the delay in returning results to the clinic. We use modelling to synthesize evidence and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of viral-load-informed differentiated care, accounting for limitations of dried blood sample testing. We find that viral-load-informed differentiated care using dried blood sample testing is cost-effective and is a recommended strategy for patient monitoring, although further empirical evidence as the approach is rolled out would be of value. We also explore the potential benefits of point-of-care viral load tests that may become available in the future.

Factors associated with healthcare seeking behaviour for children in Malawi: 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise health seeking behaviour (HSB) and determine its predictors amongst children in Malawi in 2016. METHODS: We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey data set. The outcome of interest was HSB, defined as seeking care at a health facility amongst people who reported one or more of a list of possible symptoms given on the questionnaire in the past two weeks. We fitted a multivariate logistic regression model of HSB using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and symptoms entered as a priori variables. RESULTS: Of 5350 children, 1666 (32%) had symptoms in the past two weeks. Of the 1666, 1008 (61%) sought care at health facility. The children aged 5-14 years were less likely to be taken to health facilities for health care than those aged 0-4 years. Having fever vs. not having fever and having a skin problem vs. not having skin problem were associated with increased likelihood of HSB. Having a headache vs. not having a headache was associated with lower likelihood of accessing care at health facilities (AOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.26-0.96, P = 0.04). Children from urban areas were more likely to be taken to health facilities for health care (AOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.17-2.85, P = 0.008), as were children from households with a high wealth status (AOR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.25-2.78, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: There is a need to understand and address individual, socio-economic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and use of health care and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage.

OBJECTIF: Caractériser le comportement de recherche de santé (CRS) et déterminer ses prédicteurs chez les enfants du Malawi en 2016. MÉTHODES: Nous avons utilisé l'ensemble de données de l'Enquête intégrée de 2016 auprès des ménages du Malawi. Le résultat d'intérêt était le CRS, défini comme la recherche de soins dans un établissement de santé chez les personnes qui ont déclaré une ou plusieurs symptômes d'une liste de possibilités figurant sur le questionnaire, dans les deux dernières semaines. Nous avons appliqué un modèle de régression logistique multivariée du CRS en utilisant une méthode de sélection par étape, avec l'âge, le sexe et les symptômes entrés comme variables a priori. RÉSULTATS: Sur 5.350 enfants, 1.666 (32%) ont présenté des symptômes au cours des deux dernières semaines. Sur les 1.666, des soins ont été cherché pour 1.008 (61%) dans un établissement de santé. Les enfants âgés de 5 à 14 ans étaient moins susceptibles d'être emmenés dans des établissements de santé pour des soins de santé que ceux âgés de 0 à 4 ans. Avoir de la fièvre par rapport à ne pas en avoir et avoir un problème de peau par rapport à ne pas en avoir étaient associés à une probabilité accrue de CRS. Avoir un mal de tête par rapport à ne pas en avoir était associé à une probabilité plus faible d'accéder aux soins dans les établissements de santé (AOR = 0,50 ; IC95%: 0,26-0,96 ; P= 0,04). Les enfants des zones urbaines étaient plus susceptibles d'être emmenés dans des établissements de santé pour des soins de santé (AOR = 1,81 ; IC95%: 1,17-2,85 ; P= 0,008), tout comme les enfants de ménages ayant une position socioéconomique plus élevée (AOR = 1,96 ; IC95%: 1,13-3,40 ; P= 0,02). CONCLUSION: Il est nécessaire de comprendre et de surmonter les obstacles individuels, socioéconomiques et géographiques à la recherche de la santé pour accroître l'accès et l'utilisation des soins de santé et accélérer les progrès vers la couverture sanitaire universelle.

Methods to promote equity in health resource allocation in low- and middle-income countries: an overview.

Unfair differences in healthcare access, utilisation, quality or health outcomes exist between and within countries around the world. Improving health equity is a stated objective for many governments and international organizations. We provide an overview of the major tools that have been developed to measure, evaluate and promote health equity, along with the data required to operationalise them.Methods are organised into four key policy questions facing decision-makers: (i) what is the current level of inequity in health; (ii) does government health expenditure benefit the worst-off; (iii) can government health expenditure more effectively promote equity; and (iv) which interventions provide the best value for money in reducing inequity.Benefit incidence analysis can be used to estimate the distribution of current public health sector expenditure, with geographical resource allocation formulae and health system reform being the main government policy levers for improving equity. Techniques from the economic evaluation literature, such as extended and distributional cost-effectiveness analysis can be used to identify 'best buy' interventions from a health equity perspective. A range of inequality metrics, from gap measures and slope indices to concentration indices and regression analysis, can be applied to these approaches to evaluate changes in equity.Methods from the economics literature can provide policymakers with a toolkit for addressing multiple aspects of health equity, from outcomes to financial protection, and can be adapted to accommodate data commonly available in low- and middle-income settings.

A one stop shop for cost-effectiveness evidence? Recommendations for improving Disease Control Priorities.

Setting out a health benefits package (HBP) of interventions to be prioritised for funding is an important step towards achieving universal health coverage in low and middle income countries. The 3rd version of the Disease Control Priorities (DCP3) database, and other similar databases, aim to establishing a single point of reference ("one stop shop") for cost effectiveness evidence to inform HBP design and other policy making. We reflect upon our experiences in using DCP3 for HBP design and offer suggestions for improving the future reporting of cost-effectiveness evidence. We appraise DCP3 based on generalisability, level of detail, and accessibility. We find that DCP and similar initiatives should be commended for the systematic assessment of a vast array of cost-effectiveness studies-the magnitude of such an endeavour is impressive in its own right. However, there are flaws. In future, providing disaggregated estimates of costs and effects, quantifying uncertainty, and systematically assessing the context in which estimates apply would make this evidence more useful for decision makers.

Economic Analysis of Vaccination Programs: An ISPOR Good Practices for Outcomes Research Task Force Report.

This report provides recommendations for budget holders and decision makers in high-, middle, and low-income countries requiring economic analyses of new vaccination programs to allocate scarce resources given budget constraints. ISPOR's Economic Evaluation of Vaccines Designed to Prevent Infectious Disease: Good Practices Task Force wrote guidelines for three analytic methods and solicited comments on them from external reviewers. Cost-effectiveness analyses use decision-analytic models to estimate cumulative changes in resource use, costs, and changes in quality- or disability-adjusted life-years attributable to changes in disease outcomes. Constrained optimization modeling uses a mathematical objective function to be optimized (e.g. disease cases avoided) for a target population for a set of interventions including vaccination programs within established constraints. Fiscal health modeling estimates changes in net present value of government revenues and expenditures attributable to changes in disease outcomes. The task force recommends that those designing economic analyses for new vaccination programs take into account the decision maker's policy objectives and country-specific decision context when estimating: uptake rate in the target population; vaccination program's impact on disease cases in the population over time using a dynamic transmission epidemiologic model; vaccination program implementation and operating costs; and the changes in costs and health outcomes of the target disease(s). The three approaches to economic analysis are complementary and can be used alone or together to estimate a vaccination program's economic value for national, regional, or subregional decision makers in high-, middle-, and low-income countries.

Impact of HIV Drug Resistance on HIV/AIDS-Associated Mortality, New Infections, and Antiretroviral Therapy Program Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.

Identifying Key Drivers of the Impact of an HIV Cure Intervention in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown what properties would be required to make an intervention in low income countries that can eradicate or control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without antiretroviral therapy (ART) cost-effective. METHODS: We used a model of HIV and ART to investigate the effect of introducing an ART-free viral suppression intervention in 2022 using Zimbabwe as an example country. We assumed that the intervention (cost: $500) would be accessible for 90% of the population, be given to those receiving effective ART, have sufficient efficacy to allow ART interruption in 95%, with a rate of viral rebound of 5% per year in the first 3 months, and a 50% decline in rate with each successive year. RESULTS: An ART-free viral suppression intervention with these properties would result in >0.53 million disability-adjusted-life-years averted over 2022-2042, with a reduction in HIV program costs of $300 million (8.7% saving). An intervention of this efficacy costing anything up to $1400 is likely to be cost-effective in this setting. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions aimed at curing HIV infection have the potential to improve overall disease burden and to reduce costs. Given the effectiveness and cost of ART, such interventions would have to be inexpensive and highly effective.

Country-Level Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: Initial Estimates and the Need for Further Research.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analysis can guide policymakers in resource allocation decisions. It assesses whether the health gains offered by an intervention are large enough relative to any additional costs to warrant adoption. When there are constraints on the health care system's budget or ability to increase expenditures, additional costs imposed by interventions have an "opportunity cost" in terms of the health foregone because other interventions cannot be provided. Cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) are typically used to assess whether an intervention is worthwhile and should reflect health opportunity cost. Nevertheless, CETs used by some decision makers-such as the World Health Organization that suggested CETs of 1 to 3 times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita-do not. OBJECTIVES: To estimate CETs based on opportunity cost for a wide range of countries. METHODS: We estimated CETs based on recent empirical estimates of opportunity cost (from the English National Health Service), estimates of the relationship between country GDP per capita and the value of a statistical life, and a series of explicit assumptions. RESULTS: CETs for Malawi (the country with the lowest income in the world), Cambodia (with borderline low/low-middle income), El Salvador (with borderline low-middle/upper-middle income), and Kazakhstan (with borderline high-middle/high income) were estimated to be $3 to $116 (1%-51% GDP per capita), $44 to $518 (4%-51%), $422 to $1967 (11%-51%), and $4485 to $8018 (32%-59%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: To date, opportunity-cost-based CETs for low-/middle-income countries have not been available. Although uncertainty exists in the underlying assumptions, these estimates can provide a useful input to inform resource allocation decisions and suggest that routinely used CETs have been too high.

The International Decision Support Initiative Reference Case for Economic Evaluation: An Aid to Thought.

BACKGROUND: Policymakers in high-, low-, and middle-income countries alike face challenging choices about resource allocation in health. Economic evaluation can be useful in providing decision makers with the best evidence of the anticipated benefits of new investments, as well as their expected opportunity costs-the benefits forgone of the options not chosen. To guide the decisions of health systems effectively, it is important that the methods of economic evaluation are founded on clear principles, are applied systematically, and are appropriate to the decision problems they seek to inform. METHODS: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, a major funder of economic evaluations of health technologies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), commissioned a "reference case" through the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI) to guide future evaluations, and improve both the consistency and usefulness to decision makers. RESULTS: The iDSI Reference Case draws on previous insights from the World Health Organization, the US Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health Care, and the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Comprising 11 key principles, each accompanied by methodological specifications and reporting standards, the iDSI Reference Case also serves as a means of identifying priorities for methods research, and can be used as a framework for capacity building and technical assistance in LMICs. CONCLUSIONS: The iDSI Reference Case is an aid to thought, not a substitute for it, and should not be followed slavishly without regard to context, culture, or history. This article presents the iDSI Reference Case and discusses the rationale, approach, components, and application in LMICs.

Factors influencing job preferences of health workers providing obstetric care: results from discrete choice experiments in Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Task shifting from established health professionals to mid-level providers (MLPs) (professionals who undergo shorter training in specific procedures) is one key strategy for reducing maternal and neonatal deaths. This has resulted in a growth in cadre types providing obstetric care in low and middle-income countries. Little is known about the relative importance of the different factors in determining motivation and retention amongst these cadres. METHODS: This paper presents findings from large sample (1972 respondents) discrete choice experiments to examine the employment preferences of obstetric care workers across three east African countries. RESULTS: The strongest predictors of job choice were access to continuing professional development and the presence of functioning human resources management (transparent, accountable and consistent systems for staff support, supervision and appraisal). Consistent with similar works we find pay and allowances significantly positively related to utility, but financial rewards are not as fundamental a factor underlying employment preferences as many may have previously believed. Location (urban vs rural) had the smallest average effect on utility for job choice in all three countries. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are important in the context where efforts to address the human resources crisis have focused primarily on increasing salaries and incentives, as well as providing allowances to work in rural areas.

Shifting human resources for health in the context of ART provision: qualitative and quantitative findings from the Lablite baseline study.

BACKGROUND: Lablite is an implementation project supporting and studying decentralized antiretroviral therapy (ART) rollout to rural communities in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Task shifting is one of the strategies to deal with shortage of health care workers (HCWs) in ART provision. Evaluating Human Resources for Health (HRH) optimization is essential for ensuring access to ART. The Lablite project started with a baseline survey whose aim was to describe and compare national and intercountry delivery of ART services including training, use of laboratories and clinical care. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted between October 2011 and August 2012 in a sample of 81 health facilities representing different regions, facility levels and experience of ART provision in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Using a questionnaire, data were collected on facility characteristics, human resources and service provision. Thirty three (33) focus group discussions were conducted with HCWs in a subset of facilities in Malawi and Zimbabwe. RESULTS: The survey results showed that in Malawi and Uganda, primary care facilities were run by non-physician clinical officers/medical assistants while in Zimbabwe, they were run by nurses/midwives. Across the three countries, turnover of staff was high especially among nurses. Between 10 and 20% of the facilities had at least one clinical officer/medical assistant leave in the 3 months prior to the study. Qualitative results show that HCWs in ART and non-ART facilities perceived a shortage of staff for all services, even prior to the introduction of ART provision. HCWs perceived the introduction of ART as having increased workload. In Malawi, the number of people on ART and hence the workload for HCWs has further increased following the introduction of Option B+ (ART initiation and life-long treatment for HIV positive pregnant and lactating women), resulting in extended working times and concerns that the quality of services have been affected. For some HCWs, perceived low salaries, extended working schedules, lack of training opportunities and inadequate infrastructure for service provision were linked to low job satisfaction and motivation. CONCLUSIONS: ART has been decentralized to lower level facilities in the context of an ongoing HRH crisis and staff shortage, which may compromise the provision of high-quality ART services. Task shifting interventions need adequate resources, relevant training opportunities, and innovative strategies to optimize the operationalization of new WHO treatment guidelines which continue to expand the number of people eligible for ART.

Assessment of the Potential Impact and Cost-effectiveness of Self-Testing for HIV in Low-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Studies have demonstrated that self-testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is highly acceptable among individuals and could allow cost savings, compared with provider-delivered HIV testing and counseling (PHTC), although the longer-term population-level effects are uncertain. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of introducing self-testing in 2015 over a 20-year time frame in a country such as Zimbabwe. METHODS: The HIV synthesis model was used. Two scenarios were considered. In the reference scenario, self-testing is not available, and the rate of first-time and repeat PHTC is assumed to increase from 2015 onward, in line with past trends. In the intervention scenario, self-testing is introduced at a unit cost of $3. RESULTS: We predict that the introduction of self-testing would lead to modest savings in healthcare costs of $75 million, while averting around 7000 disability-adjusted life-years over 20 years. Findings were robust to most variations in assumptions; however, higher cost of self-testing, lower linkage to care for people whose diagnosis is a consequence of a positive self-test result, and lower threshold for antiretroviral therapy eligibility criteria could lead to situations in which self-testing is not cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that introducing self-testing offers some health benefits and may well save costs.