Deep DNA sequencing of MGMT, TP53 and AGT in Mexican astrocytoma patients identifies an excess of genetic variants in women and a predictive biomarker.

PURPOSE: Astrocytomas are a type of malignant brain tumor with an unfavorable clinical course. The impact of AGT and MGMT somatic variants in the prognosis of astrocytoma is unknown, and it is controversial for TP53. Moreover, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the molecular characteristics of astrocytomas in Mexican patients. METHODS: We studied 48 Mexican patients, men and women, with astrocytoma (discovery cohort). We performed DNA deep sequencing in tumor samples, targeting AGT, MGMT and TP53, and we studied MGMT gene promoter methylation status. Then we compared our findings to a cohort which included data from patients with astrocytoma from The Cancer Genome Atlas (validation cohort). RESULTS: In the discovery cohort, we found a higher number of somatic variants in AGT and MGMT than in the validation cohort (10.4% vs < 1%, p < 0.001), and, in both cohorts, we observed only women carried variants AGT variants. We also found that the presence of either MGMT variant or promoter methylation was associated to better survival and response to chemotherapy, and, in conjunction with TP53 variants, to progression-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of AGT variants only in women expands our knowledge about the molecular differences in astrocytoma between men and women. The increased prevalence of AGT and MGMT variants in the discovery cohort also points towards possible distinctions in the molecular landscape of astrocytoma among populations. Our findings warrant further study.

Analysis of cancer mortality in Mexico using the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study.

BACKGROUND: In Mexico, cancer mortality rates have undergone changes over the past decades. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the evolution of cancer mortality rates in Mexico between 1990 and 2021. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease study, the mortality rates for the 10 most prevalent types of cancer in Mexico were obtained, at the national and regional level and by states, considering different age groups and gender. Global Burden of Disease reassigns misclassified causes and distributes them among different types of cancer; subsequently, it models and adjusts the causes to the total number of deaths with a model of a set of causes of death and a cause corrector, which corrects INEGI's mortality records. RESULTS: The cancer mortality rate went from 117.87 in 1990 to 84.18 in 2021. In women, breast, cervical, stomach and lung cancers were the most frequent. In men, the most common were prostate, stomach, lung, and colon and rectum cancer. The decrease in cancer mortality for men and women stood out, particularly from lung and cervical cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The results provide information for the development of health policies and specific prevention and control strategies to address the impact of cancer in Mexico.

ANTECEDENTES: En México, las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer han experimentado cambios a lo largo de las últimas décadas. OBJETIVO: Analizar la evolución de las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer en México entre 1990 y 2021. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Del Global Burden of Disease (GBD) se obtuvieron las tasas de mortalidad de los 10 tipos de cáncer más predominantes en México, en el ámbito nacional y por estados, considerando distintos grupos etarios y el sexo. En el GBD se reasignan las causas mal clasificadas y se distribuyen entre los distintos cánceres; posteriormente se modelan y ajustan las causas al total de fallecimientos con un modelo de conjunto de causas de muerte y un corrector de causas, con lo cual se corrigen registros de mortalidad del INEGI. RESULTADOS: La tasa de mortalidad por cáncer pasó de 117.87 en 1990 a 84.18 en 2021. En las mujeres, los cánceres de mama, cervicouterino, estómago y pulmón fueron los más frecuentes; en los hombres, de próstata, estómago, pulmón, colon y recto. Destacó la disminución de la mortalidad por cáncer en hombres y mujeres, en particular por cáncer de pulmón y cérvix uterino. CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados ofrecen información para desarrollar políticas de salud y estrategias de prevención y control específicas para enfrentar el impacto del cáncer en México.

Cancer Prevention Behaviors in Workers of a Referral Cancer Center in Mexico City: A Pilot Study on Early Detection Awareness for Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prevention strategies for cancer are necessary. Health workers who often serve as role models bear responsibility for prevention counseling and programs. However, whether their habits and behaviors reflect prevention goals are unknown. We describe the prevalence of cancer risk factors and prevention behaviors in health workers of a referral cancer center in Mexico City. METHODS: Cross-sectional study in which workers of the National Cancer Institute were invited to participate in a prevention program, risk factor survey, and nutrition, psychological, and genetic counseling were included. The likelihood of cancer was calculated based on the presence of risk factors. Factors associated with prevention behaviors were identified by logistic regression. RESULTS: We recruited 301 workers; 77% were women. The median self-reported BMI was 26.4 kg/m2, 9.97% smoked, 78% drank alcohol, and 89% did not get at least 150 min/week of physical activity. In women, age (OR = 1.3 95%CI 1.01-1.06) and physical activity of 150 min/week (OR = 2.52 95% CI 1.28-4.96) were associated with cancer prevention behaviors. No risk factors were associated with healthy behaviors among men. CONCLUSION: Health workers may have unhealthy lifestyles and behaviors, is essential to create supportive environments to promote cancer prevention counseling and programs effectively.

Clinicopathological and immunohistochemical behavior of ductal carcinoma of the salivary and lacrimal gland in a Mexican Mestizo population.

PURPOSE: Salivary gland tumors are rare and include benign and malignant entities with different behavior and prognosis. Salivary gland carcinoma accounts for 0.2% of all cancers and 5-9% of head and neck carcinomas. We aim to describe the clinicopathological characteristics and discuss the immunohistochemical findings of salivary ductal carcinoma. METHODS: We obtained 17 cases (2.3%) of salivary ductal carcinoma (SDC) from 727 patients with parotid tumors at our cancer center from a database covering a 22-year period (1996-2018). Two pathologists confirmed the diagnosis and excluded 6 cases. Eleven cases were assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) for HER2, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), androgen receptor (AR), mammaglobin, P53, GATA3, S100, cytokeratins (7,8,14,18, and 20), P63, PAX8, calponin, and SOX10. RESULTS: Eleven SDC cases were in advanced stage, and 80% had metastasis. All cases were surgically treated, and 40% received different adjuvant chemotherapy regimens. we found that most patients were dead of disease. The histological and immunohistochemical analysis showed that 70% of cases were high-grade, 40% were positive for HER2, and 50% for AR. Moreover, a high Ki-67 proliferative index was detected in all cases. We observed luminal differentiation in 50% of cases. CONCLUSION: SDC is a rare entity and survival is very poor. It is histologically similar to ductal carcinoma of the breast. However, important differences exist that help to distinguish them in case of synchronous cancers. The clinical behavior of SDC seems to be more aggressive and IHC analysis is useful for designing therapies.

Landscape of Germline Genetic Variants in AGT, MGMT, and TP53 in Mexican Adult Patients with Astrocytoma.

Astrocytoma is the most common type of primary brain tumor. The risk factors for astrocytoma are poorly understood; however, germline genetic variants account for 25% of the risk of developing gliomas. In this study, we assessed the risk of astrocytoma associated with variants in AGT, known by its role in angiogenesis, TP53, a well-known tumor suppressor and the DNA repair gene MGMT in a Mexican population. A case-control study was performed in 49 adult Mexican patients with grade II-IV astrocytoma. Sequencing of exons and untranslated regions of AGT, MGMT, and TP53 from was carried in an Ion Torrent platform. Individuals with Mexican Ancestry from the 1000 Genomes Project were used as controls. Variants found in our cohort were then assessed in a The Cancer Genome Atlas astrocytoma pan-ethnic validation cohort. Variants rs1926723 located in AGT (OR 2.74, 1.40-5.36 95% CI), rs7896488 in MGMT (OR 3.43, 1.17-10.10 95% CI), and rs4968187 in TP53 (OR 2.48, 1.26-4.88 95% CI) were significantly associated with the risk of astrocytoma after multiple-testing correction. This is the first study where the AGT rs1926723 variant, TP53 rs4968187, and MGMT rs7896488 were found to be associated with the risk of developing an astrocytoma.

Identification of a high-risk group for brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Identification of a high-risk group of brain metastases (BM) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) could lead to early interventions and probably better prognosis. The objective of the study was to identify this group by generating a multivariable model with recognized and accessible risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort from patients seen at a single center during 2010-2020, was divided into a training (TD) and validation (VD) datasets, associations with BM were measured in the TD with logit, variables significantly associated were used to generate a multivariate model. Model´s performance was measured with the AUC/C-statistic, Akaike information criterion, and Brier score. RESULTS: From 570 patients with NSCLC who met the strict eligibility criteria a TD and VD were randomly assembled, no significant differences were found amid both datasets. Variables associated with BM in the multivariate logit analyses were age [P 0.001, OR 0.96 (95% CI 0.93-0.98)]; mutational status positive [P 0.027, OR 1.96 (95% CI 1.07-3.56); and carcinoembryonic antigen levels [P 0.016, OR 1.001 (95% CI 1.000-1.003). BM were diagnosed in 24% of the whole cohort. Stratification into a high-risk group after simplification of the model, displayed a frequency of BM of 63% (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A multivariate model comprising age, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, and mutation status allowed the identification of a truly high-risk group of BM in NSCLC patients.

Identification of risk factors for central nervous system metastasis in patients with breast cancer with neurologic symptoms.

BACKGROUND: The current study was performed to identify factors that are present at the time of breast cancer (BC) diagnosis that are associated with a higher rate of central nervous system metastasis (CNSm). METHODS: The authors analyzed a database of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of BC who were referred for a neuro-oncology consultation at the National Cancer Institute in Mexico City, Mexico, from June 2009 to June 2017. Information was collected prospectively and included demographic, pathologic, and clinical data at the time of diagnosis of BC. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were built to estimate the associations between the development of CNSm and the time after BC diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 970 patients with BC, 263 (27%) were diagnosed with CNSm. The median time from BC diagnosis to the development of CNSm was 33 months (interquartile range, 15-76 months). After multivariate analysis, age <50 years at the time of BC diagnosis (odds ratio [OR], 2.5; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.8-3.5 [P < .0001]), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive status (HER2+) (OR, 3.6; 95% CI, 2.1-6.1 [P < .0001]), luminal B/HER2+ subtype (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.9-5.3 [P < .001]), triple-negative subtype(OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.5-4 [P = .001]), and Karnofsky performance status ≤70 (OR, 6.6; 95% CI, 4.5-9.6 [P < .0001]) were associated with a higher frequency of CNSm. Brain parenchyma was the most common site of CNSm. The median overall survival after a diagnosis of CNSm was 12.2 months (95% CI, 9.3-15.1 months). CONCLUSIONS: CNSm is not uncommon among patients with BC, particularly in those with neurologic symptoms who require neuro-oncology evaluation and are aged <50 years at the time of diagnosis, have HER2+ or triple-negative subtypes, have a poor Karnofsky performance status, and/or have ≥2 non-CNS metastases.

Cervical Cancer in Young Women: Do They Have a Worse Prognosis? A Retrospective Cohort Analysis in a Population of Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CC) is a global problem; it is among the five leading causes of cancer death in women. Several studies have examined the association between age and disease prognosis; however, controversy still exists. The objective of the present study is to determine if age at diagnosis has an impact on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort of 2,982 patients with CC treated at the National Cancer Institute of Mexico from 2005 to 2015. We collected demographic, clinical, and treatment data, as well as current status, of 2 groups: women under and over 40 years of age. We calculated OS and DFS rates with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to determine risks. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 26.5 months (percentile [P]25 -P75 , 11-60.23). When comparing DFS, OS, stage, and histologic subtype between young patients <40 and adult patients >40, we did not observe any difference. We found that in both groups, locally advanced and advanced stage, neuroendocrine subtype, hydronephrosis, and positive inguinal lymph nodes increased the risks of death and recurrence. Having been pregnant was identified as protective factor in DFS (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.71). CONCLUSION: We corroborated that age at diagnosis is not a prognostic factor for decreased or increased OS or DFS, and in both groups, the stage, histologic subtype, hydronephrosis, and node involvement were identified as factors adverse to OS and DFS, and pregnancy history was a protective factor in DFS. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The present study directly affects everyday clinical practice because it allows us to focus on the most relevant prognostic factors in patients with cervical cancer. When planning treatment and follow-up, clinicians should focus on stage at diagnosis, histologic subtype, hydronephrosis, and distant metastasis instead of patients' age. They should also be aware of any previous pregnancies and poor response, or nonresponse, to treatment, which results in disease progression and persistence. Paying attention to these factors affecting overall survival and disease-free survival will help treat patients better and increase their chances of survival and improve their quality of life.

Real-World Outcomes Among Older Mexican Women with Breast Cancer Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Older patients with breast cancer treated in high-income countries often present with early-stage disease, leading to a lack of information on the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in this population. We analyzed the real-world outcomes of older women with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy at a single institution in Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included 2,216 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Regarding achievement of pathologic complete response (defined as no invasive residual tumor in the breast and lymph nodes), 243 patients aged ≥65 years were compared with 1,973 patients aged <65 years. Disease-free survival and overall survival were compared between groups according to pathologic complete response and subtype, defined by hormone receptor and human epidermal growth receptor 2 (HER2) status. RESULTS: Older women were less likely to have a pathologic complete response than their younger counterparts (26.3 vs. 35.3%, p < .001). When response rates by subtype were analyzed, this difference was significant only for women with triple-negative tumors. Achieving less than a pathologic complete response was associated with a greater chance of recurrence, but age was not an independent factor for recurrence for any subtype. Reaching a pathologic complete response was significantly associated with improved survival among older women with breast cancer, with the exception of those with hormone receptor-positive, HER2- disease. CONCLUSION: Although older women have fewer pathological complete responses, their outcomes after neoadjuvant chemotherapy are comparable to those of younger patients. This is particularly relevant for the treatment of older adults with breast cancer in developing countries, who present in advanced stages and more often need neoadjuvant therapy. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The majority of older patients with breast cancer in high-income countries present with early-stage disease, leading to a lack of information regarding the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in real-world settings. This article reports the outcomes of older Mexican women with breast cancer who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy compared with their younger counterparts. Although older women (particularly those with triple-negative tumors) were less likely to have a pathologic complete response after neoadjuvant treatment, age was not an independent factor for recurrence. Achieving a pathologic complete response was associated with improved survival, regardless of age.

Implementation of the population-based cancer registry in the city of Mérida, Mexico: process and early results.

OBJECTIVE: To briefly describe the process of establishment and preliminary results of the Mérida Population-based Cancer Registry (Mérida-PBCR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mérida-PBCR started in 2016 as a research project in the IMSS, with a gradual increase in its information sources. It covers a population of 908 536 inhabitants. Data collection is active and passive, international standards are used; CanReg5 software enables data entry, storage and analysis. RESULTS: Current data include 71.5% of sources. For the period 2015- 2016, a total of 2 623 new cancer cases were registered, the majority of these (60.1%) among females. 81.5% of the cases had morphological verification. Prostate (17.4%), colorectal (8.5%) and stomach (8.1%) cancers were the most common among males, and breast (31.6%), cervix (12%) and corpus uteri (7.6%) cancers, the most common among females. Ageadjusted cancer incidence rates (per 100 000) for all sites combined were 114.9 among males and 145.1 among females. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the Mérida-PBCR has followed particular parameters, with important efforts to include new information sources. Although the data are still preliminary and must be interpreted with great caution, the main cancers follow a similar pattern to that of the national and regional estimates.

OBJETIVO: Describir brevemente el proceso de implementación y resultados preliminares del Registro de Cáncer de Base Poblacional (RCBP) de Mérida. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: RCBP-Mérida inició en 2016 como un proyecto de investigación del IMSS, con cobertura poblacional de 908 536 habitantes. El número de fuentes de información ha incrementado gradualmente. Se realizó colección de datos de forma pasiva y activa en software CanReg5 utilizando estándares internacionales. RESULTADOS: Se han incluido al RCBP-Mérida 71.5% de las fuentes de información. Durante 2015-2016 se registraron 2 623 casos nuevos, la mayoría (60.1%) mujeres. El 81.5% de los casos tuvo verificación morfológica. En hombres, el cáncer de próstata (17.4%), colorrectal (8.5%) y estómago (8.1%) son los más comunes; en mujeres, mama (31.6%), cérvix (12.0%) y cuerpo-uterino (7.6%). Las tasas de incidencia ajustadas por edad (100 000 habitantes) para todos los sitios combinados son 114.9 hombres y 145.1 mujeres. CONCLUSIONES: La implementación del RCBP-Mérida ha seguido parámetros particulares, con importante esfuerzo para incluir fuentes de información. Aunque los datos son preliminares y se deben interpretar con precaución; los principales tipos de cáncer siguen un patrón similar a las estimaciones nacionales y regionales.

Impact of invasive lobular carcinoma on long-term outcomes in Mexican breast cancer patients.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare the difference in disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) between invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) in our Hispanic population with breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a database of 4533 non-metastatic BC patients treated for BC at the National Cancer Institute in Mexico (INCan) between 2006 and 2016. We compared clinical characteristics, treatment and survival between women with invasive ductal and invasive lobular BC. We evaluated differences between survival curves with the log-rank test and used Cox's proportional hazards model for the multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 42.13 months (IQ25 25.2-IQ75 72.06). The median age was 50.9 years (IQ25 43.5-IQ75 59.8). DFS at 5 years was 80.8% for IDC versus 76.2% for ILC. 5 years OS was 88.7% for IDC versus 84.3% for ILC. Multivariate analysis showed that factors that negatively affected the 5-year DFS include: clinical stage III [hazard ratio (HR) 4.2, 95% CI 3.36-5.35; p < 0.001], triple negative phenotype (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.08-1.81; p = 0.009), Ki67 ≥ 18 (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.28-2.11; p < 0.001), and lobular histological type (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.09-2.49; p = 0.017). Factors associated with a negative impact on OS were: clinical stage III (HR 4.5, 95% CI 3.15-6.54; p < 0.001), triple negative phenotype (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.69-3.48; p < 0.001), and Ki67 ≥ 18% (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.27-2.92; p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the different biology of ILC and show that long-term prognosis in terms of DFS is not as favorable as previously reported.

[Prognostic factors in patients with breast cancer and brain metastasis as the first site of recurrence]. / Factores pronósticos en pacientes con cáncer de mama y metástasis cerebral como primer sitio de recurrencia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic factors (clinicalpathological characteristics and treatments) in patients with breast cancer and metastasis to central nervous system (CNS) as the first site of the disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Kaplan-Meier method and life tables were used to estimate overall survival time over a retrospective cohort of 125 breast cancer patients treated at the Instituto Nacional de Cancerología (INCan) during 2007-2015, who presented metastasis to the CNS as the first site of extension of the disease. The cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the prognosis factors. RESULTS: The median overall survival time was 14.2 months (IC95%: 11.83-26.93). Patients with triple negative (TN), according to inmunohistochemistry analysis classification, had lower survival times (p=0.0004) and had a risk of dying two times (p=0.037) higher than patients with a different immunophenotype (HR: 2.77. 95%CI: 1.10-6.99). The degree of intermediate SBR increases the risk of dying in patients with metastasis (HR 2.76, 95% CI: 1.17-6.51). CONCLUSIONS: CNS metastasis continues to be a poor prognostic factor that reduces survival and affects quality of life. It is recommended to monitor the early presence of clinical neurological manifestations during follow-up for prompt treatment. TN patients have worse prognosis and HER2+ a better control.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar los factores pronósticos (características clínico-patológicas y tratamientos) en las pacientes con cáncer de mama y metástasis al sistema nervioso central (SNC) como primer sitio de afección. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Cohorte retrospectiva, formada por 125 pacientes con cáncer de mama atendidas en el Instituto Nacional de Cancerología durante 2007-2015, quienes presentaron afección en el SNC como primer sitio de metástasis. A través del método Kaplan-Meier y tablas de vida se estimó la supervivencia global. El modelo de riesgos proporcionales de Cox fue utilizado para determinar los factores pronósticos. RESULTADOS: La mediana de supervivencia global fue de 14.2 meses (IC95% 11.8-26.9). Pacientes clasificadas por inmunohistoquímica como triple negativo (TN) presentaron tiempos de supervivencia más cortos (p<0.004) y con dos veces más riesgo de fallecer, en comparación con los otros inmunofenotipos (HR= 2.77; IC95% 1.10-6.99); asimismo, se identificó que un grado intermedio en la escala Scarff-Bloom-Richardson incrementa el riesgo de morir en pacientes con metástasis (HR=2.76; IC95% 1.17-6.51). CONCLUSIONES: La metástasis al SNC continúa siendo un factor de mal pronóstico que reduce la supervivencia y afecta la calidad de vida. Se recomienda vigilar puntualmente la presencia de manifestaciones clínicas neurológicas durante el seguimiento, para una rápida intervención. Las pacientes TN tienen peor pronóstico, y las HER2+ (es decir, con resultado positivo para el receptor 2 del factor de crecimiento humano epidérmico), mejor control a mediano plazo.

A prognostic score for survival in patients older than 65 years with Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Available prognosis scores for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) included a limited number of patients ≥ 65 years of age, and most of them did not include comorbidities. Here, we propose a prognostic score for overall survival (OS) for this group of patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients ≥ 65 years with DLBCL treated at a single national reference center were included. Clinical features including comorbidities and biochemical parameters were analyzed. RESULTS: We included 141 patients. Response rate in the whole group was 77%. Based on multivariate analysis, the presence of the European Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) > 2, elevated levels of beta-2 microglobulin, bulky disease, and anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL) had a significant effect on OS. These parameters were considered when computing the prognostic score, which identified three groups with differential survival: Low, intermediate, and high risk of death, with a probability of survival at 60 months of 80.05%, 55.5%, and 29.84%, respectively. DISCUSSION: This score may select patients to optimize treatment. The presence of high levels of beta-2 microglobulin, bulky disease, and hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, and ECOG > 2 was associated with poor OS in elderly patients with DLBCL.

Real-world outcomes in young women with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Breast cancer in young women has been shown to have an aggressive behavior and worse prognosis. Studies evaluating young women enrolled in clinical trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy have shown that age is a determinant factor in the achievement of a pathological complete response (pCR). In this study, we sought to analyze the outcomes of young patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy at a single institution. 1639 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy were included. 316 patients ≤40 years were compared with 1323 patients aged >40 years regarding the achievement of a pCR (defined as no invasive residual tumor in the breast or lymph nodes). Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival were compared between groups according to pCR status and subtype, defined by hormone receptor (HR) and HER2 status. Young women were more likely to have a pCR than their older counterparts (37.4 vs. 26.3 %, P < 0.001). This difference was significant both for HR+/HER2- and triple-negative (TN) tumors. Young age and achieving less than pCR were associated with a greater chance of recurrence for the entire population. Age was not an independent factor for recurrence in TN and HER2+ disease. However, being younger than 40 increased recurrence risk in HR+/HER2- tumors. The achievement of a pCR was not associated with improved DFS in young women with HR+/HER2- tumors. Although young women have a high rate of pCR, they also have a worse prognosis. In a real-world clinical setting, the achievement of a pCR was an independently significant protective factor for recurrence across all subtypes and ages, except for HR+, HER2- disease in young women.

Estimating the indirect costs associated with the expected number of cancer cases in Mexico by 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. RESULTS: We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new cases of cancer by 2020, which would be associated with a total indirect cost of 20.15 billion Mexican pesos. Men are expected to generate 54.9% of these costs. ILPD is expected to comprise the highest percentage of the cost (60%), followed by OCCs (22%), STBs (17%) and DPs (1%). CONCLUSIONS: From an economic perspective, the results emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and early detection of cancer among adults to reduce its effect on the productivity of Mexico.

Challenges in the development and implementation of the National Comprehensive Cancer Control Program in Mexico.

Chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including cancer, have become the leading cause of human morbidity and mortality. In Mexico, cancer is the third leading cause of death, with a high incidence among the economically active population, a high proportion of advanced stages at diagnosis and limited care coverage for patients. However, no public policy aimed at managing this important public health problem has been developed and implemented to date. This manuscript describes the first interinstitutional proposal of a National Program for Cancer Control, considering the known risk factors, early detection, treatment, palliative care and patient rehabilitation. This manuscript also outlines a series of thoughts on the difficulties and needs that the Mexican health system faces in achieving the main objectives of the program: to decrease the incidence of cancer, to increase survival and to improve the quality of life for this group of patients.

Estimation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening Using Mammography in Mexico Through a Simulation.

BACKGROUND: Currently, breast cancer is the most prevalent tumor among Mexican women. Screening methods such as mammography could potentially reduce the health and economic burden of breast cancer; however, its risk-benefit balance is still unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of different breast cancer screening programs using mammography in Mexico and to contribute to the decision-making process on this preventive measure. METHODS: A simulation study was performed using population data and incidence rates. Several screening programs were assessed using the cost-effectiveness methodology recommended by the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The feasible recommended screening program has an examination schedule periodicity of every three years, with a population coverage of 0, 15, 18, 20, 25, 20, 18, and 0% for the age groups of 25-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70, and 70-75 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Given the present coverage in Mexico, it is necessary to optimize our resource allocation to improve the country's breast cancer prevention policy.

Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates.

INTRODUCTION: Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. METHODS: We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960-2012), and birth-cohort (1920-1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010-2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. RESULTS: Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65-68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57-59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960-2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7-22.5% by 2050, affecting 15-25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico.

Factores socioeconómicos asociados por nivel de inseguridad alimentaria en adultos mexicanos con diabetes mellitus durante la pandemia de la COVID-19.

OBJETIVOS: estimar la prevalencia de la inseguridad alimentaria e identificar los factores socioeconómicos asociados en adultos mexicanos con diabetes mellitus, durante la pandemia de la COVID-19. MÉTODOS: estudio transversal, análisis secundario de los datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020 sobre la COVID-19. Se estudió a 1 232 individuos que representan a 9 569 330 adultos con diabetes mellitus. La inseguridad alimentaria se midió utilizando la Escala Latinoamericana y Caribeña de Seguridad Alimentaria adaptada para México. Se realizó un modelo de regresión logístico binario para cada nivel de inseguridad alimentaria. Se calcularon razón de momios e intervalos de confianza al 95 %. Un valor de p < 0.05 fue estadísticamente significativo. RESULTADOS: el 64.8 % presentó inseguridad alimentaria: 40.7 % leve, 14.2 % moderada y 9.9 % severa. Los factores asociados a inseguridad alimentaria leve fueron: nivel socioeconómico muy bajo (RM 2.6), pérdida del empleo de algún miembro del hogar (RM 2.0) y reducción de gastos en alimentación (RM 5.0); para inseguridad moderada la RM fue de 7.7, 3.4 y 18.6 y en severa la RM 7.1, 3.0 y 46.7, respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: la COVID-19 ha tenido efectos inmediatos en la inseguridad alimentaria de la población de adultos mexicanos con diabetes mellitus. Identificar los factores socioeconómicos asociados es prioritario para llevar a cabo políticas públicas que permitan redirigir los recursos y cubrir necesidades básicas como la alimentación.

Brain metastasis risk prediction model in females with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in females, and the hormone receptor-positive subtype is the most frequent. Breast cancer is a common source of brain metastases; therefore, we aimed to generate a brain metastases prediction model in females with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. METHODS: The primary cohort included 3,682 females with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer treated at a single center from May 2009 to May 2020. Patients were randomly divided into a training dataset (n = 2,455) and a validation dataset (n = 1,227). In the training dataset, simple logistic regression analyses were used to measure associations between variables and the diagnosis of brain metastases and to build multivariable models. The model with better calibration and discrimination capacity was tested in the validation dataset to measure its predictive performance. RESULTS: The variables incorporated in the model included age, tumor size, axillary lymph node status, clinical stage at diagnosis, HER2 expression, Ki-67 proliferation index, and the modified Scarff-Bloom-Richardson grade. The area under the curve was 0.81 (95 % CI 0.75-0.86), p < 0.001 in the validation dataset. The study presents a guide for the clinical use of the model. CONCLUSION: A brain metastases prediction model in females with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer helps assess the individual risk of brain metastases.