RESUMO
Although mortality risk scores for chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients should have an important role in clinical decision-making, those currently available have limited applicability, robustness, and generalizability. Here we applied a modified Framingham Heart Study approach to derive 1- and 2-year all-cause mortality risk scores using a 11,508 European incident HD patient database (AROii) recruited between 2007 and 2009. This scoring model was validated externally using similar-sized Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Survey (DOPPS) data. For AROii, the observed 1- and 2-year mortality rates were 13.0 (95% confidence interval (CI; 12.3-13.8)) and 11.2 (10.4-12.1)/100 patient years, respectively. Increasing age, low body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease or cancer, and use of a vascular access catheter during baseline were consistent predictors of mortality. Among baseline laboratory markers, hemoglobin, ferritin, C-reactive protein, serum albumin, and creatinine predicted death within 1 and 2 years. When applied to the DOPPS population, the predictive risk score models were highly discriminatory, and generalizability remained high when restricted by incidence/prevalence and geographic location (C-statistics 0.68-0.79). This new model offers improved predictive power over age/comorbidity-based models and also predicted early mortality (C-statistic 0.71). Our new model delivers a robust and reproducible mortality risk score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data.
Assuntos
Falência Renal Crônica/mortalidade , Diálise Renal/mortalidade , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Coortes , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Medição de RiscoRESUMO
Early mortality is high in hemodialysis (HD) patients, but little is known about early cardiovascular event (CVE) rates after HD initiation. To study this we analyzed data in the AROii cohort of incident HD patients from over 300 European Fresenius Medical Care dialysis centers. Weekly rates of a composite of CVEs during the first year and monthly rates of the composite and its constituents (coronary artery, cerebrovascular, peripheral arterial, congestive heart failure, and sudden cardiac death) during the first 2 years after HD initiation were assessed. Of 6308 patients that started dialysis within 7 days, 1449 patients experienced 2405 CVEs over the next 2 years. The first-year CVE rate (30.2/100 person-years; 95% CI, 28.7-31.7) greatly exceeded the second-year rate (19.4/100; 95% CI, 18.1-20.8). Composite CVEs were highest during the first week with increased risk compared with the second year, persisting until the fifth month. Except for sudden cardiac death, temporal patterns of rates for all CVE categories were very similar, with highest rates during the first month and a high-risk period extending to 4 months. Higher or lower cumulative weekly dialysis dose, lower blood flow, and lower net ultrafiltration during dialysis were associated with CVE during the high-risk period, but not during the post high-risk period. Thus, the incidence of CVE in the first weeks after HD initiation is much higher than during subsequent periods which raises concerns that HD initiation may trigger CVEs.
Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Diálise Renal/efeitos adversos , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/terapia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Doença das Coronárias/epidemiologia , Morte Súbita Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Feminino , Insuficiência Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doença Arterial Periférica/epidemiologia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/complicações , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
PURPOSE: Hyporesponsiveness to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) is clinically and economically important in the treatment of anaemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Previous studies focused on baseline predictors of ESA hyporesponsiveness, rather than factors associated with the transition to this state. Reversibility of ESA hyporesponsiveness has also not been studied previously. METHODS: Case-crossover methodology was applied to a cohort of 6645 European CKD patients undergoing haemodialysis and prescribed ESAs. Ninety-day ESA exposure periods were defined, haemoglobin (Hb) response was calculated using the last 30 days of one period and the first 30 days of the next, and periods were classified based on a median ESA dose (80.8 IU/kg/week) and a 10 g/dL Hb threshold. Clinical, dialysis and laboratory data from patients' first hyporesponsive 'case' period was compared with the preceding responsive 'control' period using conditional logistic regression. A similar approach was applied to hyporesponsiveness reversal. RESULTS: Of the patients, 672 experienced hyporesponsiveness periods with preceding responsive periods; 711 reversed to normality from hyporesponsiveness periods. Transition to hyporesponsiveness was associated with hospitalization, vascular access changes or worsening inflammation, with these factors accounting for over two-thirds of transitions. Findings were largely insensitive to alternative ESA doses and Hb thresholds. Continued hospitalization, catheter insertion and uncontrolled secondary hyperparathyroidism were associated with a lack of regain of responsiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Transition to hyporesponsiveness is linked to the development of conditions such as hospitalization events, vascular access issues or episodes of systemic inflammation. However, a third of hyporesponsive episodes remain unexplained.
Assuntos
Anemia/tratamento farmacológico , Hematínicos/uso terapêutico , Diálise Renal , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Cross-Over , Relação Dose-Resposta a Droga , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Análise Multivariada , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Sepsis, the leading cause of acute kidney injury (AKI), is associated with a high morbidity and mortality. Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) is an endogenous detoxifying enzyme. A recombinant human ALP compound, ilofotase alfa, showed no safety or tolerability concerns in a phase 2 trial. Renal function improvement over 28 days was significantly greater in the ilofotase alfa group. Moreover, a significant relative reduction in 28-day all-cause mortality of >40% was observed. A follow-up trial has been designed to confirm these findings. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a phase 3, global, multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, sequential design trial in which patients are randomly assigned to either placebo or 1.6 mg/kg ilofotase alfa. Randomisation is stratified by baseline modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mSOFA) score and trial site. The primary objective is to confirm the survival benefit with ilofotase alfa by demonstrating a reduction in 28-day all-cause mortality in patients with sepsis-associated AKI requiring vasopressors. A maximum of 1400 patients will be enrolled at â¼120 sites in Europe, North America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Up to four interim analyses will take place. Based on predefined decision rules, the trial may be stopped early for futility or for effectiveness. In addition, patients with COVID-19 disease and patients with 'moderate to severe' chronic kidney disease are analysed as 2 separate cohorts of 100 patients each. An independent Data Monitoring Committee evaluates safety data at prespecified intervals throughout the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial is approved by relevant institutional review boards/independent ethics committees and is conducted in accordance with the ethical principles of the Declaration of Helsinki, guidelines of Good Clinical Practice, Code of Federal Regulations and all other applicable regulations. Results of this study will determine the potential of ilofotase alfa to reduce mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis-associated AKI and will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT CT Number 2019-0046265-24. US IND Number 117 605 Pre-results. CLINICALTRIALS: gov number: NCT04411472.
Assuntos
Injúria Renal Aguda , COVID-19 , Sepse , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Fosfatase Alcalina/uso terapêutico , Sepse/complicações , Sepse/tratamento farmacológico , Injúria Renal Aguda/etiologia , Resultado do Tratamento , Método Duplo-Cego , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Estudos Multicêntricos como Assunto , Ensaios Clínicos Fase III como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A simple clinical tool to predict cardiovascular disease risk does not exist for haemodialysis patients. The long-term coronary risk Framingham Heart Study Risk score (FRS), although used in this population, may be inadequate. Therefore, we developed separate risk-scores for cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and cardiovascular morbidity & mortality (CVMM) in a Fresenius Medical Care-based haemodialysis patient cohort (AROii). METHODS: Applying a modified FRS approach, we derived and internally validated two-year risk-scores in incident European adult patients randomly assigned to a development (N=4831) or a validation (N=4796) dataset. External validation was conducted in the third Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS III) cohort. Additional discrimination comparing to the FRS was performed. RESULTS: The overall two-year CVM and CVMM event rates were 5.0 and 22.6 per 100 person-years respectively. Common risk predictors included increasing age, cardiovascular disease history, primary diabetic nephropathy, low blood pressure, and inflammation. The CVM score was more predictive in AROii (c-statistic 0.72) and in DOPPS III (c-statistic 0.73-0.74) than the CVMM score (c-statistic 0.66-0.67 & 0.63 respectively). The FRS was not predictive of either CVM (c-statistic 0.54) or CVMM (c-statistic 0.56) in AROii. CONCLUSIONS: We describe novel, easy-to-apply and interpret CV risk-scores for haemodialysis patients. Our improved cardiovascular prediction performance over traditional (FRS) scores reflected its tailored development and validation in haemodialysis populations, and the integration of non-classical cardiovascular risk factors. The lower expected versus observed CVM and CVMM risk suggests the existence of novel cardiovascular risk factors in this patient population not measured in this study.