Postnatal retention in HIV care: insight from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over a 15-year observational period.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to quantify loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV care after delivery and to identify risk factors for LTFU, and implications for HIV disease progression and subsequent pregnancies. METHODS: We used data on pregnancies within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 1996 to 2011. A delayed clinical visit was defined as > 180 days and LTFU as no visit for > 365 days after delivery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for LTFU. RESULTS: A total of 695 pregnancies in 580 women were included in the study, of which 115 (17%) were subsequent pregnancies. Median maternal age was 32 years (IQR 28-36 years) and 104 (15%) women reported any history of injecting drug use (IDU). Overall, 233 of 695 (34%) women had a delayed visit in the year after delivery and 84 (12%) women were lost to follow-up. Being lost to follow-up was significantly associated with a history of IDU [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-5.88; P = 0.007] and not achieving an undetectable HIV viral load (VL) at delivery (aOR 2.42; 95% CI 1.21-4.85; P = 0.017) after adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity and being on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at conception. Forty-three of 84 (55%) women returned to care after LTFU. Half of them (20 of 41) with available CD4 had a CD4 count < 350 cells/µL and 15% (six of 41) a CD4 count < 200 cells/µL at their return. CONCLUSIONS: A history of IDU and detectable HIV VL at delivery were associated with LTFU. Effective strategies are warranted to retain women in care beyond pregnancy and to avoid CD4 cell count decline. ART continuation should be advised especially if a subsequent pregnancy is planned.

Increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with age in HIV-positive men: a comparison of the D:A:D CVD risk equation and general population CVD risk equations.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to statistically model the relative increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) per year older in Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) and to compare this with the relative increased risk of CVD per year older in general population risk equations. METHODS: We analysed three endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD: MI or invasive coronary procedure) and CVD (CHD or stroke). We fitted a number of parametric age effects, adjusting for known risk factors and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. The best-fitting age effect was determined using the Akaike information criterion. We compared the ageing effect from D:A:D with that from the general population risk equations: the Framingham Heart Study, CUORE and ASSIGN risk scores. RESULTS: A total of 24 323 men were included in analyses. Crude MI, CHD and CVD event rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.29, 3.11 and 3.65 in those aged 40-45 years to 6.53, 11.91 and 15.89 in those aged 60-65 years, respectively. The best-fitting models included inverse age for MI and age + age(2) for CHD and CVD. In D:A:D there was a slowly accelerating increased risk of CHD and CVD per year older, which appeared to be only modest yet was consistently raised compared with the risk in the general population. The relative risk of MI with age was not different between D:A:D and the general population. CONCLUSIONS: We found only limited evidence of accelerating increased risk of CVD with age in D:A:D compared with the general population. The absolute risk of CVD associated with HIV infection remains uncertain.

Decreasing mortality and changing patterns of causes of death in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among HIV-infected persons is decreasing, and causes of death are changing. Classification of deaths is hampered because of low autopsy rates, frequent deaths outside of hospitals, and shortcomings of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) coding. METHODS: We studied mortality among Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants (1988-2010) and causes of death using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) protocol (2005-2009). Furthermore, we linked the SHCS data to the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) cause of death registry. RESULTS: AIDS-related mortality peaked in 1992 [11.0/100 person-years (PY)] and decreased to 0.144/100 PY (2006); non-AIDS-related mortality ranged between 1.74 (1993) and 0.776/100 PY (2006); mortality of unknown cause ranged between 2.33 and 0.206/100 PY. From 2005 to 2009, 459 of 9053 participants (5.1%) died. Underlying causes of deaths were: non-AIDS malignancies [total, 85 (19%) of 446 deceased persons with known hepatitis C virus (HCV) status; HCV-negative persons, 59 (24%); HCV-coinfected persons, 26 (13%)]; AIDS [73 (16%); 50 (21%); 23 (11%)]; liver failure [67 (15%); 12 (5%); 55 (27%)]; non-AIDS infections [42 (9%); 13 (5%); 29 (14%)]; substance use [31 (7%); 9 (4%); 22 (11%)]; suicide [28 (6%); 17 (7%), 11 (6%)]; myocardial infarction [28 (6%); 24 (10%), 4 (2%)]. Characteristics of deceased persons differed in 2005 vs. 2009: median age (45 vs. 49 years, respectively); median CD4 count (257 vs. 321 cells/µL, respectively); the percentage of individuals who were antiretroviral therapy-naïve (13 vs. 5%, respectively); the percentage of deaths that were AIDS-related (23 vs. 9%, respectively); and the percentage of deaths from non-AIDS-related malignancies (13 vs. 24%, respectively). Concordance in the classification of deaths was 72% between CoDe and ICD-10 coding in the SHCS; and 60% between the SHCS and the SNC registry. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in HIV-positive persons decreased to 1.33/100 PY in 2010. Hepatitis B or C virus coinfections increased the risk of death. Between 2005 and 2009, 84% of deaths were non-AIDS-related. Causes of deaths varied according to data source and coding system.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

HLA-Bw4 identifies a population of HIV-infected patients with an increased capacity to control viral replication after structured treatment interruption.

OBJECTIVES: After structured treatment interruption (STI) of treatment for HIV-1, a fraction of patients maintain suppressed viral loads. Prospective identification of such patients might improve HIV-1 treatment, if selected patients are offered STI. METHODS: We analysed the effect of previously identified genetic modulators of HIV-1 disease progression on patients' ability to suppress viral replication after STI. Polymorphisms in the genes killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor 3DLI (KIR3DL1)/KIR3DS1, human leucocyte antigen B (HLA-B) and HLA Complex P5 (HCP5), and a polymorphism affecting HLA-C surface expression were analysed in 130 Swiss HIV Cohort Study patients undergoing STI. Genotypes were correlated with viral load levels after STI. RESULTS: We observed a statistically significant reduction in viral load after STI in carriers of HLA-B alleles containing either the Bw480Thr or the Bw480Ile epitope (mean adjusted effect on post-STI viral load: -0.82 log HIV-1 RNA copies/ml, P < 0.001; and -1.12 log copies/ml, P < 0.001, respectively). No significant effects were detected for the other polymorphisms analysed. The likelihood of being able to control HIV-1 replication using a prespecified cut-off (viral load increase < 1000 copies/ml) increased from 39% in Bw4-negative patients to 53% in patients carrying Bw4-80Thr, and to 65% in patients carrying Bw4-80Ile (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: These data establish a significant impact of HLA-Bw4 on the control of viral replication after STI.

Trends over time of virological and immunological characteristics in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcome of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not assessed in controlled trials. We aimed to analyse trends in the population effectiveness of ART in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over the last decade. METHODS: We analysed the odds of stably suppressed viral load (ssVL: three consecutive values <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and of CD4 cell count exceeding 500 cells/µL for each year between 2000 and 2008 in three scenarios: an open cohort; a closed cohort ignoring the influx of new participants after 2000; and a worst-case closed cohort retaining lost or dead patients as virological failures in subsequent years. We used generalized estimating equations with sex, age, risk, non-White ethnicity and era of starting combination ART (cART) as fixed co-factors. Time-updated co-factors included type of ART regimen, number of new drugs and adherence to therapy. RESULTS: The open cohort included 9802 individuals (median age 38 years; 31% female). From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of participants with ssVL increased from 37 to 64% [adjusted odds ratio (OR) per year 1.16 (95% CI 1.15-1.17)] and the proportion with CD4 count >500 cells/µL increased from 40 to >50% [OR 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07)]. Similar trends were seen in the two closed cohorts. Adjustment did not substantially affect time trends. CONCLUSIONS: There was no relevant dilution effect through new participants entering the open clinical cohort, and the increase in virological/immunological success over time was not an artefact of the study design of open cohorts. This can partly be explained by new treatment options and other improvements in medical care.

Antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy and premature birth: analysis of Swiss data.

BACKGROUND: There is an ongoing debate as to whether combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) during pregnancy is an independent risk factor for prematurity in HIV-1-infected women. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine (1) crude effects of different ART regimens on prematurity, (2) the association between duration of cART and duration of pregnancy, and (3) the role of possibly confounding risk factors for prematurity. METHOD: We analysed data from 1180 pregnancies prospectively collected by the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study (MoCHiV) and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). RESULTS: Odds ratios for prematurity in women receiving mono/dual therapy and cART were 1.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85-3.6] and 2.5 (95% CI 1.4-4.3) compared with women not receiving ART during pregnancy (P=0.004). In a subgroup of 365 pregnancies with comprehensive information on maternal clinical, demographic and lifestyle characteristics, there was no indication that maternal viral load, age, ethnicity or history of injecting drug use affected prematurity rates associated with the use of cART. Duration of cART before delivery was also not associated with duration of pregnancy. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that confounding by maternal risk factors or duration of cART exposure is not a likely explanation for the effects of ART on prematurity in HIV-1-infected women.

Efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir-based therapy for treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.

Changing patterns of cancer incidence in the early- and late-HAART periods: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996 led to a decrease in the incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), but not of other cancers, among people with HIV or AIDS (PWHA). It also led to marked increases in their life expectancy. METHODS: We conducted a record-linkage study between the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and nine Swiss cantonal cancer registries. In total, 9429 PWHA provided 20,615, 17,690, and 15,410 person-years in the pre-, early-, and late-HAART periods, respectively. Standardised incidence ratios in PWHA vs the general population, as well as age-standardised, and age-specific incidence rates were computed for different periods. RESULTS: Incidence of KS and NHL decreased by several fold between the pre- and early-HAART periods, and additionally declined from the early- to the late-HAART period. Incidence of cancers of the anus, liver, non-melanomatous skin, and Hodgkin's lymphoma increased in the early- compared with the pre-HAART period, but not during the late-HAART period. The incidence of all non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) combined was similar in all periods, and approximately double that in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in the incidence of selected NADCs after the introduction of HAART were largely accounted for by the ageing of PWHA.

Uptake of and virological response to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected former and current injecting drug users and persons in an opiate substitution treatment programme: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to investigate the influence of continued injecting drug use, enrolment in an opiate substitution treatment programme (OSTP), or cessation of injecting drug use on the uptake and course of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Design A prospective observational study of all participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study followed between 1997 and 2006 was carried out. METHODS: We distinguished four groups of former or current injecting drug users (IDUs): (i) abstinent former IDUs; (ii) persons in OSTPs without concomitant injecting drug use; (iii) persons in OSTPs with concomitant injecting drug use; (vi) current IDUs. These groups were compared with a group of patients who had never been IDUs. Factors related to ART uptake and virological endpoints were analysed using logistic generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: We followed 8660 participants for 48 477 person-years; 29.7% were in the IDU HIV transmission group. The likelihood of being on ART at biannual visits was lower among individuals in OSTPs with concomitant injecting drug use [odds ratio (OR) 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.89] and current IDUs (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.67-0.96), compared with those who had never been IDUs (reference), abstinent former IDUs (OR 1.13; 95% CI 1.02-1.25) and individuals in OSTPs without injecting drug use (OR 1.18; 95% CI 1.06-1.31). The likelihood of suppressed viral replication on ART was similar among those who had never been IDUs, abstinent former IDUs and individuals in an OSTP without injecting drug use, and lower among those in OSTPs with concomitant drug use (OR 0.82; 95% CI 0.72-0.93) and current IDUs (OR 0.81; 0.65-1.00). Adherence to ART was decreased among persons with continued injecting drug use, and correlated with virological outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Uptake of and virological response to ART were improved among abstinent former IDUs and persons in OSTPs without concomitant injecting drug use, compared with persons with continued injecting drug use.

Little evidence that hepatitis C virus leads to a higher risk of mortality in the absence of cirrhosis and excess alcohol intake: the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study.

The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (

Host- rather than virus-related factors reduce health-related quality of life in hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with decreased health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Although HCV has been suggested to directly impair neuropsychiatric functions, other factors may also play a role. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we assessed the impact of various host-, disease- and virus-related factors on HRQOL in a large, unselected population of anti-HCV-positive subjects. All individuals (n = 1736) enrolled in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS) were asked to complete the Short Form 36 (SF-36) and the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: 833 patients (48%) returned the questionnaires. Survey participants had significantly worse scores in both assessment instruments when compared to a general population. By multivariable analysis, reduced HRQOL (mental and physical summary scores of SF-36) was independently associated with income. In addition, a low physical summary score was associated with age and diabetes, whereas a low mental summary score was associated with intravenous drug use. HADS anxiety and depression scores were independently associated with income and intravenous drug use. In addition, HADS depression score was associated with diabetes. None of the SF-36 or HADS scores correlated with either the presence or the level of serum HCV RNA. In particular, SF-36 and HADS scores were comparable in 555 HCV RNA-positive and 262 HCV RNA-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-HCV-positive subjects have decreased HRQOL compared to controls. The magnitude of this decrease was clinically important for the SF-36 vitality score. Host and environmental, rather than viral factors, seem to impact on HRQOL level.

Kaposi sarcoma incidence in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study before and after highly active antiretroviral therapy.

Between 1984 and 2006, 12 959 people with HIV/AIDS (PWHA) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study contributed a total of 73 412 person-years (py) of follow-up, 35 551 of which derived from PWHA treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Five hundred and ninety-seven incident Kaposi sarcoma (KS) cases were identified of whom 52 were among HAART users. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Kaposi sarcoma incidence fell abruptly in 1996-1998 to reach a plateau at 1.4 per 1000 py afterwards. Men having sex with men and birth in Africa or the Middle East were associated with KS in both non-users and users of HAART but the risk pattern by CD4 cell count differed. Only very low CD4 cell count (<50 cells microl(-1)) at enrollment or at HAART initiation were significantly associated with KS among HAART users. The HR for KS declined steeply in the first months after HAART initiation and continued to be low 7-10 years afterwards (HR, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.02-0.17). Thirty-three out of 52 (63.5%) KS cases among HAART users arose among PWHA who had stopped treatment or used HAART for less than 6 months.

Delayed diagnosis of HIV infection and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Two sub-populations were included: 1915 patients with HIV diagnosis from 1998 to 2007 and within 3 months of cohort registration (group A), and 1730 treatment-naïve patients with CD4>or=200 cells/microL before their second cohort visit (group B). In group A, predictors for low initial CD4 cell counts were examined with a median regression. In group B, we studied predictors for CD4<200 cells/microL without ART despite cohort follow-up. RESULTS: Median initial CD4 cell count in group A was 331 cells/microL; 31% and 10% were <200 and <50 cells/microL, respectively. Risk factors for low CD4 count were age and non-White race. Homosexual transmission, intravenous drug use and living alone were protective. In group B, 30% initiated ART with CD4>or=200 cells/microL; 18% and 2% dropped to CD4 <200 and <50 cells/microL without ART, respectively. Sub-Saharan origin was associated with lower probability of CD4 <200 cells/microL without ART during follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 207 and 253 cells/microL in groups A and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CD4<200 cells/microL and, particularly, CD4<50 cells/microL before starting ART are predominantly caused by late presentation. Earlier HIV diagnosis is paramount.

Effect of antiretroviral therapy on viral load, CD4 cell count, and progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in a community human immunodeficiency virus-infected cohort. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of different antiretroviral treatment regimens on viral load, CD4 lymphocyte counts, and rates of progression to clinical acquired immunodeficiency syndrome events among treatment-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients enrolled in a large community cohort study. METHODS: Based in 7 outpatient clinics, the Swiss HIV Cohort Study is a cohort with national coverage. Virological, immunologic, and clinical results of 755 treatment-naive patients (median age, 36 years; 28.2% female) who initiated antiretroviral therapy between July 1, 1995, and June 30, 1997, were analyzed. Patients started undergoing monotherapy with 1 reverse transcriptase inhibitor (RTI), combination therapy with at least 2 RTIs, or highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) with RTIs and protease inhibitors. RESULTS: Antiretroviral treatment led to a mean reduction of viremia of 1.8 log10 copies per milliliter with HAART, 1.2 log10 copies per milliliter with RTI combination therapy, and 0.4 log10 copies per milliliter with monotherapy. Virological failure, defined as less than 1 log10 reduction per milliliter in viremia, was present in 45 (20%) patients undergoing HAART, 180 (38%) undergoing RTI combination therapy, and 47 (82%) undergoing monotherapy. The proportion of patients reaching undetectable viremia was 12% (n = 7) for monotherapy, 41% (n = 197) for RTI combination therapy, and 63% (n = 137) for HAART. Similar gains of CD4 cells were achieved with RTI combination therapy and HAART. Kaplan-Meier estimates of progression rates to a new acquired immunodeficiency syndrome event at 18 months were 13.6% (monotherapy), 4.7% (RTI combination therapy), and 3.9% (HAART). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of virological failure of antiretroviral treatments was high in this population of treatment-naive patients, even among patients receiving combination regimens. Clinical progression rates were, however, low in patients treated with RTI combination therapy and HAART.

Increases in Condomless Sex in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Condomless sex is a key driver of sexually transmitted diseases. In this study, we assess the long-term changes (2000-2013) of the occurrence of condomless sex among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort study. The frequencies with which HIV-infected individuals reported condomless sex were either stable or only weakly increasing for 2000-2008. For 2008-2013, these rates increased significantly for stable relationships among heterosexuals and men who have sex with men (MSM) and for occasional relationships among MSM. Our results highlight the increasing public health challenge posed by condomless sex and show that condomless sex has been increasing even in the most recent years.

Impact of antiretroviral combination therapies on AIDS surveillance reports in Switzerland. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: AIDS reporting in Switzerland is mandatory by law. For the first time since the beginning of the epidemic, health authorities observed a decline in AIDS surveillance reports, from 545 new cases in 1995 to 459 in 1996, a decrease of 86 cases. OBJECTIVE: To examine the extent to which this decline in AIDS surveillance reports is attributable to the introduction of antiretroviral combination therapy. PATIENTS AND SETTING: Swiss HIV Cohort Study, a multicentre cohort of adult HIV-infected patients with national coverage. Participants at risk of developing a first AIDS-defining event, defined as persons with a CD4 cell count below 200 x 10(6)/l or in clinical stage B, were studied. METHODS: A parametric statistical survival model was used to estimate the number of AIDS cases expected in the absence of combination therapies. Taking reporting delays into account, the effect of the introduction of combination therapies in the cohort on national AIDS reports was estimated from the difference between the number of expected and observed cases. RESULTS: A total of 4915 participants contributed 10755 person-years and 2366 initial AIDS events. Between 1990 and 1994, about 35% received antiretroviral therapy, predominantly monotherapy. In 1995 and 1996, the prevalence of antiretroviral therapy increased steadily due to the introduction of dual and triple combinations. The mid-year prevalence of use of combination therapies was 6% in 1994, 13% in 1995, and 48% in 1996. The difference between expected and observed cases per half-year increased from 12 in the first 6 months of 1994 to 69 in the second half of 1996. Taking reporting delays into account, we estimated that 43 (95% confidence interval, 17-69) of the deficit of 86 reports could be attributed to combination therapies. CONCLUSION: The introduction of antiretroviral combination therapies in a single cohort study explained 50% of the decline in national AIDS surveillance reports. Monitoring the use and effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy must become an important component of AIDS surveillance systems.

Discontinuation of primary prophylaxis in HIV-infected patients at high risk of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia: prospective multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the safety of discontinuation of primary prophylaxis in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral combination therapy at high risk of developing Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. DESIGN: Prospective multicentre study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The incidence of P. carinii pneumonia after discontinuation of primary prophylaxis was studied in 396 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral combination therapy who experienced an increase in their CD4 cell count to at least 200 x 10(6)/l and 14% of total lymphocytes; the study population included 191 patients with a history of CD4 cell counts below 100 x 10(6)/l (245 person-years) and 144 patients with plasma HIV RNA above 200 copies/ml (215 person-years). RESULTS: There was one case of Pneumocystis pneumonia, an incidence of 0.18 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.005--1.0 per 100 person-years]. No case was diagnosed in groups with low nadir CD4 cell counts (95% CI, 0--1.2 per 100 person-years) or detectable plasma HIV RNA (95% CI, 0--1.4 per 100 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation of primary prophylaxis against Pneumocystis pneumonia is safe in patients who have responded with a sustained increase in their CD4 cell count to antiretroviral combination therapy, irrespective of the CD4 cell count nadir and the viral load at the time of stopping prophylaxis.

Acute HIV infection: impact on the spread of HIV and transmission of drug resistance.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of primary HIV infection (PHI) on the spread of HIV and the temporal trends in transmission of HIV drug resistance between 1996 and 1999 in Switzerland. METHODS: Sequencing of the genes for reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease was performed for 197 individuals with documented PHI. Phylogenetic analyses were confronted with epidemiological data. RESULTS: Significant clustering was demonstrated for 29% of the RT sequences. All these cases occurred closely together in place and time; contact tracing demonstrated transmission at the time of PHI in 30% of them. Genotypic drug resistance was detected in 8.6% of PHI individuals in 1996, 14.6% in 1997, 8.8% in 1998 and 5.0% in 1999. Drug-resistant variants were identified in 11.3% of individuals infected by homosexual contacts, 6.1% by heterosexual contacts, 13% of intravenous drug users and more frequently in men (10.4%) than women (2.6%). Potential factors involved in the recent decrease of transmission of drug-resistant variants include increase of HIV non-B subtypes from 23% in 1996 to 35% in 1999 (only one non-B subtype had resistance mutations) and a steady increase of patients with undetectable viraemia as documented in Swiss HIV Cohort Study (10% in 1996 vs 53% in 1999). CONCLUSIONS: Phylogenetic and epidemiological analyses underline the impact of PHI in the spread of HIV. Moreover, this study indicates that drug resistance transmission may have decreased recently in Switzerland through the increased frequency of infection with HIV non-B subtypes and the steady increase of patients with undetectable viraemia.

Hyperlactatemia and antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

The prevalence, clinical presentation, and risk factors for hyperlactatemia among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy was determined during a 1-month period for patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Overall, 73 (8.3%) of 880 patients presented an increase in serum lactate of >1.1 times the upper normal limit (UNL). For 9 patients (1%), lactate elevation was moderate or severe (>2.2 times the UNL). Patients who presented with hyperlactatemia were more likely to be receiving stavudine with or without didanosine (odds ratio, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-4.8), as compared with patients who received zidovudine-based regimens. The risk increased with increasing time receiving stavudine with or without didanosine. The association between hyperlactatemia and stavudine with or without didanosine was not biased by these medications being more recently available and, therefore, being given preferentially to patients who had prolonged use of nucleoside analog reverse-transcriptase inhibitors. Hyperlactatemia was associated with lipoatrophy, hyperlipidemia, and hyperglycemia. Age, sex, or stage of infection with human immunodeficiency virus were not predictive of hyperlactatemia. Determination of lactate levels may prove useful in the screening for mitochondrial toxicity.