Sensitivity of Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction Tests for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Through Time.

BACKGROUND: Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests are the gold standard for detecting recent infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Reverse transcription PCR sensitivity varies over the course of an individual's infection, related to changes in viral load. Differences in testing methods, and individual-level variables such as age, may also affect sensitivity. METHODS: Using data from New Zealand, we estimate the time-varying sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR under varying temporal, biological, and demographic factors. RESULTS: Sensitivity peaks 4-5 days postinfection at 92.7% (91.4%-94.0%) and remains over 88% between 5 and 14 days postinfection. After the peak, sensitivity declined more rapidly in vaccinated cases compared with unvaccinated, females compared with males, those aged under 40 compared with over 40s, and Pacific peoples compared with other ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Reverse transcription PCR remains a sensitive technique and has been an effective tool in New Zealand's border and postborder measures to control coronavirus disease 2019. Our results inform model parameters and decisions concerning routine testing frequency.

Surface melting and breakup of metal nanowires: Theory and molecular dynamics simulation.

We consider the surface melting of metal nanowires by solving a phenomenological two-parabola Landau model and by conducting molecular dynamics simulations of nickel and aluminum nanowires. The model suggests that surface melting will precede bulk melting when the melt completely wets the surface and the wire is sufficiently thick, as is the case for planar surfaces and sufficiently large nanoparticles. Surface melting does not occur if the melt partially wets or does not wet the surface. We test this model, which assumes that the surface energies of the wire are isotropic, using molecular dynamics simulations. For nickel, we observe the onset of anisotropic surface melting associated with each of the two surface facets present, but this gives way to uniform surface melting and the solid melts radially until the solid core eventually breaks up. For aluminum, while we observe complete surface melting of one facet, the lowest energy surface remains partially dry even up to the point where the melt completely penetrates the solid core.

Nanowire melting modes during the solid-liquid phase transition: theory and molecular dynamics simulations.

Molecular dynamics simulations have shown that after initial surface melting, nanowires can melt via two mechanisms: an interface front moves towards the wire centre; the growth of instabilities at the interface can cause the solid to pinch-off and breakup. By perturbing a capillary fluctuation model describing the interface kinetics, we show when each mechanism is preferred and compare the results to molecular dynamics simulation. A Plateau-Rayleigh-type of instability is found and suggests longer nanowires will melt via an instability mechanism, whereas in shorter nanowires the melting front will move closer to the centre before the solid pinch-off can initiate. Simulations support this theory; preferred modes that destabilise the interface are proportional to the wire length, with longer nanowires preferring to pinch-off and melt; shorter wires have a more stable interface close to their melting temperature, and prefer to melt via an interface front that moves towards the wire centre.

Real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand.

During an epidemic, real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number supports decision makers to introduce timely and effective public health measures. We estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number, Rt , during Aotearoa New Zealand's August 2021 outbreak of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, by fitting the publicly available EpiNow2 model to New Zealand case data. While we do not explicitly model non-pharmaceutical interventions or vaccination coverage, these two factors were the leading drivers of variation in transmission in this period and we describe how changes in these factors coincided with changes in Rt . Alert Level 4, New Zealand's most stringent restriction setting which includes stay-at-home measures, was initially effective at reducing the median Rt to 0.6 (90% CrI 0.4, 0.8) on 29 August 2021. As New Zealand eased certain restrictions and switched from an elimination strategy to a suppression strategy, Rt subsequently increased to a median 1.3 (1.2, 1.4). Increasing vaccination coverage along with regional restrictions were eventually sufficient to reduce Rt below 1. The outbreak peaked at an estimated 198 (172, 229) new infected cases on 10 November, after which cases declined until January 2022. We continue to update Rt estimates in real time as new case data become available to inform New Zealand's ongoing pandemic response.

Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control.

New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border restrictions and an Alert Level (AL) system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These interventions were successful in containing an outbreak and ultimately eliminating community transmission of COVID-19 in June 2020. The timing of interventions is crucial to their success. Delaying interventions may reduce their effectiveness and mean that they need to be maintained for a longer period. We use a stochastic branching process model of COVID-19 transmission and control to simulate the epidemic trajectory in New Zealand's March-April 2020 outbreak and the effect of its interventions. We calculate key measures, including the number of reported cases and deaths, and the probability of elimination within a specified time frame. By comparing these measures under alternative timings of interventions, we show that changing the timing of AL4 (the strictest level of restrictions) has a far greater impact than the timing of border measures. Delaying AL4 restrictions results in considerably worse outcomes. Implementing border measures alone, without AL4 restrictions, is insufficient to control the outbreak. We conclude that the early introduction of stay-at-home orders was crucial in reducing the number of cases and deaths, enabling elimination.