Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years.

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.

Towards dynamic genome-scale models.

The analysis of the dynamic behaviour of genome-scale models of metabolism (GEMs) currently presents considerable challenges because of the difficulties of simulating such large and complex networks. Bacterial GEMs can comprise about 5000 reactions and metabolites, and encode a huge variety of growth conditions; such models cannot be used without sophisticated tool support. This article is intended to aid modellers, both specialist and non-specialist in computerized methods, to identify and apply a suitable combination of tools for the dynamic behaviour analysis of large-scale metabolic designs. We describe a methodology and related workflow based on publicly available tools to profile and analyse whole-genome-scale biochemical models. We use an efficient approximative stochastic simulation method to overcome problems associated with the dynamic simulation of GEMs. In addition, we apply simulative model checking using temporal logic property libraries, clustering and data analysis, over time series of reaction rates and metabolite concentrations. We extend this to consider the evolution of reaction-oriented properties of subnets over time, including dead subnets and functional subsystems. This enables the generation of abstract views of the behaviour of these models, which can be large-up to whole genome in size-and therefore impractical to analyse informally by eye. We demonstrate our methodology by applying it to a reduced model of the whole-genome metabolism of Escherichia coli K-12 under different growth conditions. The overall context of our work is in the area of model-based design methods for metabolic engineering and synthetic biology.

Petri-net-based 2D design of DNA walker circuits.

We consider localised DNA computation, where a DNA strand walks along a binary decision graph to compute a binary function. One of the challenges for the design of reliable walker circuits consists in leakage transitions, which occur when a walker jumps into another branch of the decision graph. We automatically identify leakage transitions, which allows for a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of circuit designs, design comparison, and design optimisation. The ability to identify leakage transitions is an important step in the process of optimising DNA circuit layouts where the aim is to minimise the computational error inherent in a circuit while minimising the area of the circuit. Our 2D modelling approach of DNA walker circuits relies on coloured stochastic Petri nets which enable functionality, topology and dimensionality all to be integrated in one two-dimensional model. Our modelling and analysis approach can be easily extended to 3-dimensional walker systems.

Snoopy--a unifying Petri net framework to investigate biomolecular networks.

SUMMARY: To investigate biomolecular networks, Snoopy provides a unifying Petri net framework comprising a family of related Petri net classes. Models can be hierarchically structured, allowing for the mastering of larger networks. To move easily between the qualitative, stochastic and continuous modelling paradigms, models can be converted into each other. We get models sharing structure, but specialized by their kinetic information. The analysis and iterative reverse engineering of biomolecular networks is supported by the simultaneous use of several Petri net classes, while the graphical user interface adapts dynamically to the active one. Built-in animation and simulation are complemented by exports to various analysis tools. Snoopy facilitates the addition of new Petri net classes thanks to its generic design. AVAILABILITY: Our tool with Petri net samples is available free of charge for non-commercial use at http://www-dssz.informatik.tu-cottbus.de/snoopy.html; supported operating systems: Mac OS X, Windows and Linux (selected distributions).

Historical weather data for climate risk assessment.

Weather- and climate-related hazards are responsible for monetary losses, material damages, and societal consequences. Quantifying related risks is, therefore, an important societal task, particularly in view of future climate change. For this task, climate risk assessment increasingly uses model chains, which mainly build on data from the last few decades. The past record of events could play a role in this context. New numerical techniques can make use of historical weather data to simulate impacts quantitatively. However, using historical data for model applications differs from using recent products. Here, we provide an overview of climate risk assessment methodologies and of the properties of historical instrumental and documentary data. Using three examples, we then outline how historical environmental data can be used today in climate risk assessment by (1) developing and validating numerical model chains, (2) providing a large statistical sample which can be directly exploited to estimate hazards and to model present risks, and (3) establishing "worst-case" events which are relevant references in the present or future. The examples show that, in order to be successful, different sources (reanalyses, digitized instrumental data, and documentary data) and methods (dynamical downscaling and analog methods) need to be combined on a case-by-case basis.

Coloured Hybrid Petri Nets: An adaptable modelling approach for multi-scale biological networks.

Coloured Petri nets are an excellent choice for exploring large biological models, particularly when there are repetitions of components. Such models can be easily adapted by slight modifications of parameter values related to colours. Similarly, multi-scale models could involve multiple spatial scales in addition to multiple time scales. Thus, they require the full interplay between stochastic as well as deterministic processes. In this paper we take these two aspects into account and present a modelling and simulation approach for multi-scale biochemical networks using Coloured Generalised Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPNC). GHPNC are a Petri net class that associates colours to Generalised Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPN), which incorporate discrete and continuous places in addition to stochastic and continuous transitions. Moreover, we present two case studies to illustrate typical applications taking advantage of such a Petri net class.

Snoopy's hybrid simulator: a tool to construct and simulate hybrid biological models.

BACKGROUND: Hybrid simulation of (computational) biochemical reaction networks, which combines stochastic and deterministic dynamics, is an important direction to tackle future challenges due to complex and multi-scale models. Inherently hybrid computational models of biochemical networks entail two time scales: fast and slow. Therefore, it is intricate to efficiently and accurately analyse them using only either deterministic or stochastic simulation. However, there are only a few software tools that support such an approach. These tools are often limited with respect to the number as well as the functionalities of the provided hybrid simulation algorithms. RESULTS: We present Snoopy's hybrid simulator, an efficient hybrid simulation software which builds on Snoopy, a tool to construct and simulate Petri nets. Snoopy's hybrid simulator provides a wide range of state-of-the-art hybrid simulation algorithms. Using this tool, a computational model of biochemical networks can be constructed using a (coloured) hybrid Petri net's graphical notations, or imported from other compatible formats (e.g. SBML), and afterwards executed via dynamic or static hybrid simulation. CONCLUSION: Snoopy's hybrid simulator is a platform-independent tool providing an accurate and efficient simulation of hybrid (biological) models. It can be downloaded free of charge as part of Snoopy from http://www-dssz.informatik.tu-cottbus.de/DSSZ/Software/Snoopy .

Upk3b is dispensable for development and integrity of urothelium and mesothelium.

The mesothelium, the lining of the coelomic cavities, and the urothelium, the inner lining of the urinary drainage system, are highly specialized epithelia that protect the underlying tissues from mechanical stress and seal them from the overlying fluid space. The development of these epithelia from simple precursors and the molecular characteristics of the mature tissues are poorly analyzed. Here, we show that uroplakin 3B (Upk3b), which encodes an integral membrane protein of the tetraspanin superfamily, is specifically expressed both in development as well as under homeostatic conditions in adult mice in the mesothelia of the body cavities, i.e., the epicardium and pericardium, the pleura and the peritoneum, and in the urothelium of the urinary tract. To analyze Upk3b function, we generated a creERT2 knock-in allele by homologous recombination in embryonic stem cells. We show that Upk3bcreERT2 represents a null allele despite the lack of creERT2 expression from the mutated locus. Morphological, histological and molecular analyses of Upk3b-deficient mice did not detect changes in differentiation or integrity of the urothelium and the mesothelia that cover internal organs. Upk3b is coexpressed with the closely related Upk3a gene in the urothelium but not in the mesothelium, leaving the possibility of a functional redundancy between the two genes in the urothelium only.

JAK/STAT signalling--an executable model assembled from molecule-centred modules demonstrating a module-oriented database concept for systems and synthetic biology.

Mathematical models of molecular networks regulating biological processes in cells or organisms are most frequently designed as sets of ordinary differential equations. Various modularisation methods have been applied to reduce the complexity of models, to analyse their structural properties, to separate biological processes, or to reuse model parts. Taking the JAK/STAT signalling pathway with the extensive combinatorial cross-talk of its components as a case study, we make a natural approach to modularisation by creating one module for each biomolecule. Each module consists of a Petri net and associated metadata and is organised in a database publically accessible through a web interface (). The Petri net describes the reaction mechanism of a given biomolecule and its functional interactions with other components including relevant conformational states. The database is designed to support the curation, documentation, version control, and update of individual modules, and to assist the user in automatically composing complex models from modules. Biomolecule centred modules, associated metadata, and database support together allow the automatic creation of models by considering differential gene expression in given cell types or under certain physiological conditions or states of disease. Modularity also facilitates exploring the consequences of alternative molecular mechanisms by comparative simulation of automatically created models even for users without mathematical skills. Models may be selectively executed as an ODE system, stochastic, or qualitative models or hybrid and exported in the SBML format. The fully automated generation of models of redesigned networks by metadata-guided modification of modules representing biomolecules with mutated function or specificity is proposed.

Petri nets in Snoopy: a unifying framework for the graphical display, computational modelling, and simulation of bacterial regulatory networks.

Using the example of phosphate regulation in enteric bacteria, we demonstrate the particular suitability of stochastic Petri nets to model biochemical phenomena and their simulative exploration by various features of the software tool Snoopy.