In Silico Methods for Environmental Risk Assessment: Principles, Tiered Approaches, Applications, and Future Perspectives.

This chapter aims to introduce the reader to the basic principles of environmental risk assessment of chemicals and highlights the usefulness of tiered approaches within weight of evidence approaches in relation to problem formulation i.e., data availability, time and resource availability. In silico models are then introduced and include quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models, which support filling data gaps when no chemical property or ecotoxicological data are available. In addition, biologically-based models can be applied in more data rich situations and these include generic or species-specific models such as toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models, dynamic energy budget models, physiologically based models, and models for ecosystem hazard assessment i.e. species sensitivity distributions and ultimately for landscape assessment i.e. landscape-based modeling approaches. Throughout this chapter, particular attention is given to provide practical examples supporting the application of such in silico models in real-world settings. Future perspectives are discussed to address environmental risk assessment in a more holistic manner particularly for relevant complex questions, such as the risk assessment of multiple stressors and the development of harmonized approaches to ultimately quantify the relative contribution and impact of single chemicals, multiple chemicals and multiple stressors on living organisms.

Establishment of a cross-European field site network in the ALARM project for assessing large-scale changes in biodiversity.

The field site network (FSN) plays a central role in conducting joint research within all Assessing Large-scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods (ALARM) modules and provides a mechanism for integrating research on different topics in ALARM on the same site for measuring multiple impacts on biodiversity. The network covers most European climates and biogeographic regions, from Mediterranean through central European and boreal to subarctic. The project links databases with the European-wide field site network FSN, including geographic information system (GIS)-based information to characterise the test location for ALARM researchers for joint on-site research. Maps are provided in a standardised way and merged with other site-specific information. The application of GIS for these field sites and the information management promotes the use of the FSN for research and to disseminate the results. We conclude that ALARM FSN sites together with other research sites in Europe jointly could be used as a future backbone for research proposals.

Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change.

Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.

Extending standard testing period in honeybees to predict lifespan impacts of pesticides and heavy metals using dynamic energy budget modelling.

Concern over reported honeybee (Apis mellifera spp.) losses has highlighted chemical exposure as a risk. Current laboratory oral toxicity tests in A. mellifera spp. use short-term, maximum 96 hour, exposures which may not necessarily account for chronic and cumulative toxicity. Here, we use extended 240 hour (10 day) exposures to examine seven agrochemicals and trace environmental pollutant toxicities for adult honeybees. Data were used to parameterise a dynamic energy budget model (DEBtox) to further examine potential survival effects up to 30 day and 90 day summer and winter worker lifespans. Honeybees were most sensitive to insecticides (clothianidin > dimethoate ≫ tau-fluvalinate), then trace metals/metalloids (cadmium, arsenic), followed by the fungicide propiconazole and herbicide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D). LC50s calculated from DEBtox parameters indicated a 27 fold change comparing exposure from 48 to 720 hours (summer worker lifespan) for cadmium, as the most time-dependent chemical as driven by slow toxicokinetics. Clothianidin and dimethoate exhibited more rapid toxicokinetics with 48 to 720 hour LC50s changes of <4 fold. As effects from long-term exposure may exceed those measured in short-term tests, future regulatory tests should extend to 96 hours as standard, with extension to 240 hour exposures further improving realism.

New risk assessment approach for systemic insecticides: the case of honey bees and imidacloprid (Gaucho).

The procedure to assess the risk posed by systemic insecticides to honey bees follows the European Directives and depends on the determination of the Hazard Quotient (HQ), though this parameter is not adapted to these molecules. This paper describes a new approach to assess more specifically the risk posed by systemic insecticides to honey bees with the example of imidacloprid (Gaucho). This approach is based on the new and existing chemical substances Directive in which levels of exposure (PEC, Predicted Exposure Concentration) and toxicity (PNEC, Predicted No Effect Concentration) are compared. PECs are determined for different categories of honey bees in relation to the amounts of contaminated pollen and nectar they might consume. PNECs are calculated from data on acute, chronic, and sublethal toxicities of imidacloprid to honey bees, to which selected assessment factors are applied. Results highlight a risk for all categories of honey bees, in particular for hive bees. These data are discussed in the light of field observations made on honey bee mortalities and disappearances. New perspectives are given to better determine the risk posed by systemic insecticides to honey bees.