Plasma cell-free DNA methylation analysis for ovarian cancer detection: Analysis of samples from a case-control study and an ovarian cancer screening trial.

Analysis of cell-free DNA methylation (cfDNAme), alone or combined with CA125, could help to detect ovarian cancers earlier and may reduce mortality. We assessed cfDNAme in regions of ZNF154, C2CD4D and WNT6 via targeted bisulfite sequencing in diagnostic and early detection (preceding diagnosis) settings. Diagnostic samples were obtained via prospective blood collection in cell-free DNA tubes in a convenience series of patients with a pelvic mass. Early detection samples were matched case-control samples derived from the UK Familial Ovarian Cancer Screening Study (UKFOCSS). In the diagnostic set (ncases = 27, ncontrols = 41), the specificity of cfDNAme was 97.6% (95% CI: 87.1%-99.9%). High-risk cancers were detected with a sensitivity of 80% (56.3%-94.3%). Combination of cfDNAme and CA125 resulted in a sensitivity of 94.4% (72.7%-99.9%) for high-risk cancers. Despite technical issues in the early detection set (ncases = 29, ncontrols = 29), the specificity of cfDNAme was 100% (88.1%-100.0%). We detected 27.3% (6.0%-61.0%) of high-risk cases with relatively lower genomic DNA (gDNA) contamination. The sensitivity rose to 33.3% (7.5%-70.1%) in samples taken <1 year before diagnosis. We detected ovarian cancer in several patients up to 1 year before diagnosis despite technical limitations associated with archival samples (UKFOCSS). Combined cfDNAme and CA125 assessment may improve ovarian cancer screening in high-risk populations, but future large-scale prospective studies will be required to validate current findings.

Tumour stage, treatment, and survival of women with high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer in UKCTOCS: an exploratory analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In UKCTOCS, there was a decrease in the diagnosis of advanced stage tubo-ovarian cancer but no reduction in deaths in the multimodal screening group compared with the no screening group. Therefore, we did exploratory analyses of patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer to understand the reason for the discrepancy. METHODS: UKCTOCS was a 13-centre randomised controlled trial of screening postmenopausal women from the general population, aged 50-74 years, with intact ovaries. The trial management system randomly allocated (2:1:1) eligible participants (recruited from April 17, 2001, to Sept 29, 2005) in blocks of 32 using computer generated random numbers to no screening or annual screening (multimodal screening or ultrasound screening) until Dec 31, 2011. Follow-up was through national registries until June 30, 2020. An outcome review committee, masked to randomisation group, adjudicated on ovarian cancer diagnosis, histotype, stage, and cause of death. In this study, analyses were intention-to-screen comparisons of women with high-grade serous cancer at censorship (Dec 31, 2014) in multimodal screening versus no screening, using descriptive statistics for stage and treatment endpoints, and the Versatile test for survival from randomisation. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, 22488978, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00058032. FINDINGS: 202 562 eligible women were recruited (50 625 multimodal screening; 50 623 ultrasound screening; 101 314 no screening). 259 (0·5%) of 50 625 participants in the multimodal screening group and 520 (0·5%) of 101 314 in the no screening group were diagnosed with high-grade serous cancer. In the multimodal screening group compared with the no screening group, fewer were diagnosed with advanced stage disease (195 [75%] of 259 vs 446 [86%] of 520; p=0·0003), more had primary surgery (158 [61%] vs 219 [42%]; p<0·0001), more had zero residual disease following debulking surgery (119 [46%] vs 157 [30%]; p<0·0001), and more received treatment including both surgery and chemotherapy (192 [74%] vs 331 [64%]; p=0·0032). There was no difference in the first-line combination chemotherapy rate (142 [55%] vs 293 [56%]; p=0·69). Median follow-up from randomisation of 779 women with high-grade serous cancer in the multimodal and no screening groups was 9·51 years (IQR 6·04-13·00). At censorship (June 30, 2020), survival from randomisation was longer in women with high-grade serous cancer in the multimodal screening group than in the no screening group with absolute difference in survival of 6·9% (95% CI 0·4-13·0; p=0·042) at 18 years (21% [95% CI 15·6-26·2] vs 14% [95% CI 10·5-17·4]). INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that screening can detect high-grade serous cancer earlier and lead to improved short-term treatment outcomes compared with no screening. The potential survival benefit for women with high-grade serous cancer was small, most likely due to only modest gains in early detection and treatment improvement, and tumour biology. The cumulative results of the trial suggest that surrogate endpoints for disease-specific mortality should not currently be used in screening trials for ovarian cancer. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, The Eve Appeal.

Increased FOXJ1 protein expression is associated with improved overall survival in high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma: an Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis Consortium Study.

BACKGROUND: Recently, we showed a >60% difference in 5-year survival for patients with tubo-ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) when stratified by a 101-gene mRNA expression prognostic signature. Given the varied patient outcomes, this study aimed to translate prognostic mRNA markers into protein expression assays by immunohistochemistry and validate their survival association in HGSC. METHODS: Two prognostic genes, FOXJ1 and GMNN, were selected based on high-quality antibodies, correlation with protein expression and variation in immunohistochemical scores in a preliminary cohort (n = 134 and n = 80, respectively). Six thousand four hundred and thirty-four (FOXJ1) and 5470 (GMNN) formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded ovarian neoplasms (4634 and 4185 HGSC, respectively) represented on tissue microarrays from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium underwent immunohistochemical staining and scoring, then univariate and multivariate survival analysis. RESULTS: Consistent with mRNA, FOXJ1 protein expression exhibited a linear, increasing association with improved overall survival in HGSC patients. Women with >50% expression had the most favourable outcomes (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.67-0.91, p < 0.0001). GMNN protein expression was not significantly associated with overall HSGC patient survival. However, HGSCs with >35% GMNN expression showed a trend for better outcomes, though this was not significant. CONCLUSION: We provide foundational evidence for the prognostic value of FOXJ1 in HGSC, validating the prior mRNA-based prognostic association by immunohistochemistry.

Ovarian cancer symptoms in pre-clinical invasive epithelial ovarian cancer - An exploratory analysis nested within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

OBJECTIVE: UKCTOCS provides an opportunity to explore symptoms in preclinical invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (iEOC). We report on symptoms in women with pre-clinical (screen-detected) cancers (PC) compared to clinically diagnosed (CD) cancers. METHODS: In UKCTOCS, 202638 postmenopausal women, aged 50-74 were randomly allocated (April 17, 2001-September 29, 2005) 2:1:1 to no screening or annual screening till Dec 31,2011, using a multimodal or ultrasound strategy. Follow-up was through national registries. An outcomes committee adjudicated on OC diagnosis, histotype, stage. Eligible women were those diagnosed with iEOC at primary censorship (Dec 31, 2014). Symptom details were extracted from trial clinical-assessment forms and medical records. Descriptive statistics were used to compare symptoms in PC versus CD women with early (I/II) and advanced (III/IV/unable to stage) stage high-grade-serous (HGSC) cancer. ISRCTN-22488978; ClinicalTrials.gov-NCT00058032. RESULTS: 1133 (286PC; 847CD) women developed iEOC. Median age (years) at diagnosis was earlier in PC compared to CD (66.8PC, 68.7CD, p = 0.0001) group. In the PC group, 48% (112/234; 90%, 660/730CD) reported symptoms when questioned. Half PC (50%, 13/26PC; 36%, 29/80CD; p = 0.213) women with symptomatic HGSC had >1symptom, with abdominal symptoms most common, both in early (62%, 16/26, PC; 53% 42/80, CD; p = 0.421) and advanced (57%, 49/86, PC; 74%, 431/580, CD; p = 0.001) stages. In symptomatic early-stage HGSC, compared to CD, PC women reported more gastrointestinal (change in bowel habits and dyspepsia) (35%, 9/26PC; 9%, 7/80CD; p = 0.001) and systemic (mostly lethargy/tiredness) (27%, 7/26PC; 9%, 7/80CD; p = 0.017) symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, add to the growing evidence, that we should reconsider what constitutes alert symptoms for early tubo-ovarian cancer. We need a more nuanced complex of key symptoms which is then evaluated and refined in a prospective trial.

Comprehensive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer risk prediction model incorporating genetic and epidemiological risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify women at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention. METHODS: We developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for women of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D and BRIP1, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively. RESULTS: Based on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the first to 99th percentiles of the EOC risk distribution. The corresponding range for women with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9%-10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk. CONCLUSION: This multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among women with FH of cancer and/or moderate-risk and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).

Ovarian cancer population screening and mortality after long-term follow-up in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer continues to have a poor prognosis with the majority of women diagnosed with advanced disease. Therefore, we undertook the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) to determine if population screening can reduce deaths due to the disease. We report on ovarian cancer mortality after long-term follow-up in UKCTOCS. METHODS: In this randomised controlled trial, postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years were recruited from 13 centres in National Health Service trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were bilateral oophorectomy, previous ovarian or active non-ovarian malignancy, or increased familial ovarian cancer risk. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS), annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. Follow-up was through national registries. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer (WHO 2014 criteria) by June 30, 2020. Analyses were by intention to screen, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening using the versatile test. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type, whereas the outcomes review committee were masked to randomisation group. This study is registered with ISRCTN, 22488978, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00058032. FINDINGS: Between April 17, 2001, and Sept 29, 2005, of 1 243 282 women invited, 202 638 were recruited and randomly assigned, and 202 562 were included in the analysis: 50 625 (25·0%) in the MMS group, 50 623 (25·0%) in the USS group, and 101 314 (50·0%) in the no screening group. At a median follow-up of 16·3 years (IQR 15·1-17·3), 2055 women were diagnosed with tubal or ovarian cancer: 522 (1·0%) of 50 625 in the MMS group, 517 (1·0%) of 50 623 in the USS group, and 1016 (1·0%) of 101 314 in the no screening group. Compared with no screening, there was a 47·2% (95% CI 19·7 to 81·1) increase in stage I and 24·5% (-41·8 to -2·0) decrease in stage IV disease incidence in the MMS group. Overall the incidence of stage I or II disease was 39·2% (95% CI 16·1 to 66·9) higher in the MMS group than in the no screening group, whereas the incidence of stage III or IV disease was 10·2% (-21·3 to 2·4) lower. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0·6%) of 50 625 in the MMS group, 291 (0·6%) of 50 623 in the USS group, and 619 (0·6%) of 101 314 in the no screening group. No significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths was observed in the MMS (p=0·58) or USS (p=0·36) groups compared with the no screening group. INTERPRETATION: The reduction in stage III or IV disease incidence in the MMS group was not sufficient to translate into lives saved, illustrating the importance of specifying cancer mortality as the primary outcome in screening trials. Given that screening did not significantly reduce ovarian and tubal cancer deaths, general population screening cannot be recommended. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal.

Implementation of a nurse-led overdose prevention site in a hospital setting: lessons learned from St. Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: In May 2018, St. Paul's Hospital (SPH) in Vancouver (Canada) opened an outdoor peer-led overdose prevention site (OPS) operated in partnership with Vancouver Coastal Health and RainCity Housing. At the end of 2020, the partnered OPS moved to a new location, which created a gap in service for SPH inpatients and outpatients. To address this gap, which was magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic, SPH opened a nurse-led OPS in February 2021. This paper describes the steps leading to the implementation of the nurse-led OPS, its impact, and lessons learned. METHODS: Four steps paved the way for the opening of the OPS: (1) identifying the problem, (2) seeking ethics guidance, (3) adapting policies and practices, and (4) supporting and training staff. RESULTS: The OPS is open between 10:00 and 20:00 and staffed by two nurses per shift. It is accessible to all patients including inpatients, patients in the Emergency Department, and patients attending outpatient services. Between February 1, 2021 and October 23, 2021, the OPS recorded 1612 visits for the purpose of injection, for an average weekly visit number of 42. A total of 46 overdoses were recorded in that 9-month period. Thirty-seven (80%) required administration of naloxone and 12 (26%) required a code blue response. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the unique nature of our OPS, we learned many important lessons in the process leading to the opening of the site and the months that followed. We conclude the paper with lessons learned grouped into six main categories, namely engagement, communication, access, staff education and support, data collection, and safety.

Improved early detection of ovarian cancer using longitudinal multimarker models.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer has a poor survival rate due to late diagnosis and improved methods are needed for its early detection. Our primary objective was to identify and incorporate additional biomarkers into longitudinal models to improve on the performance of CA125 as a first-line screening test for ovarian cancer. METHODS: This case-control study nested within UKCTOCS used 490 serial serum samples from 49 women later diagnosed with ovarian cancer and 31 control women who were cancer-free. Proteomics-based biomarker discovery was carried out using pooled samples and selected candidates, including those from the literature, assayed in all serial samples. Multimarker longitudinal models were derived and tested against CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. RESULTS: The best performing models, incorporating CA125, HE4, CHI3L1, PEBP4 and/or AGR2, provided 85.7% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity up to 1 year before diagnosis, significantly improving on CA125 alone. For Type II cases (mostly high-grade serous), models achieved 95.5% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity. Predictive values were elevated earlier than CA125, showing the potential of models to improve lead time. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified candidate biomarkers and tested longitudinal multimarker models that significantly improve on CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. These models now warrant independent validation.

Ovarian cancer symptoms, routes to diagnosis and survival - Population cohort study in the 'no screen' arm of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

OBJECTIVE: There are widespread efforts to increase symptom awareness of 'pelvic/abdominal pain, increased abdominal size/bloating, difficulty eating/feeling full and urinary frequency/urgency' in an attempt to diagnose ovarian cancer earlier. Long-term survival of women with these symptoms adjusted for known prognostic factors is yet to be determined. This study explored the association of symptoms, routes and interval to diagnosis and long-term survival in a population-based cohort of postmenopausal women diagnosed with invasive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (iEOC) in the 'no screen' (control) UKCTOCS arm. METHODS: Of 101,299 women in the control arm, 574 were confirmed on outcome review to have iEOC between randomisation (2001-2005) and 31 December 2014. Data was extracted from medical notes and electronic records. A multivariable model was fitted for individual symptoms, time interval from symptom onset to diagnosis, route to diagnosis, speciality, morphological Type, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis (period effect), stage, primary treatment, and residual disease. RESULTS: Women presenting with symptoms listed in the NICE guidelines (HR1.48, 95%CI1.16-1.89, p = 0.001) or the modified Goff Index (HR1·68, 95%CI1·32-2.13, p < 0.0001) had significantly worse survival than those who did not. Each additional presenting symptom decreased survival (HR1·20, 95%CI1·12-1·28, p < 0.0001). In multivariable analysis, in addition to advanced stage, increasing residual disease and inadequate primary treatment, abdominal pain and loss of appetite/feeling full were significantly associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The ovarian cancer symptom indices identify postmenopausal women with a poorer prognosis. This study however cannot exclude the possibility of better outcomes in those who are aware and act on their symptoms.

Serum HE4 and diagnosis of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women with adnexal masses.

BACKGROUND: Transvaginal ultrasound and serum CA125 are routinely used for differential diagnosis of pelvic adnexal mass. Use of human epididymis 4 was approved in the United States in 2011. However, there is scarcity of studies evaluating the additional value of human epididymis 4. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to evaluate the performance characteristics of transvaginal ultrasound, CA125, and human epididymis 4 for differential diagnosis of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women with adnexal masses. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cohort study nested within the screen arms of the multicenter randomized controlled trial, United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, based in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. In United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 48,230 women randomized to transvaginal ultrasound screening and 50,078 to multimodal screening (serum CA125 interpreted by Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm with second line transvaginal ultrasound) underwent the first (prevalence) screen. Women with adnexal lesions and/or persistently elevated risk were clinically assessed and underwent surgery or follow-up for a median of 10.9 years. Banked samples taken within 6 months of transvaginal ultrasound from all clinically assessed women were assayed for human epididymis 4 and CA125. Area under the curve and sensitivity for diagnosing ovarian cancer of multiple penalized logistic regression models incorporating logCA125, log human epididymis 4, age, and simple ultrasound features of the adnexal mass were compared. RESULTS: Of 1590 (158 multimodal, 1432 ultrasound) women with adnexal masses, 78 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (48 invasive epithelial ovarian, 14 type I, 34 type II; 24 borderline epithelial; 6 nonepithelial) within 1 year of scan. The area under the curve (0.893 vs 0.896; P = .453) and sensitivity (74.4% vs 75.6% ;P = .564) at fixed specificity of 90% of the model incorporating age, ultrasound, and CA125 were similar to that also including human epididymis 4. Both models had high sensitivity for invasive epithelial ovarian (89.6%) and type II (>91%) cancers. CONCLUSION: Our population cohort study suggests that human epididymis 4 adds little value to concurrent use of CA125 and transvaginal ultrasound in the differential diagnosis of adnexal masses in postmenopausal women.

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test is associated with liver-related outcomes in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study was to estimate the association between the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test and liver-related events (LRE) and its performance in predicting LRE in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case-control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). METHODS: In a cohort of 95,126 we performed a case-control study measuring ELF in blinded samples from 173 participants with self-reported high alcohol use and / or BMI ≥25 kg/m2 comprising all 58 cases who developed LRE and 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8.5 years. RESULTS: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 10.51 hazard ratios (HR) for LRE were 4.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37-10.03) (unadjusted model) and 4.62 (95% CI 2.12-10.08) (adjusted for deprivation and self-reported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes). At a threshold of 9.8 HR for LRE were 2.21 (95% CI 1.22-3.97) (unadjusted model) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.19-4.01) (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating time-dependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 10.51 were 1.94 (95% CI 1.10-3.39) (unadjusted) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.16-3.64) (adjusted) and at a threshold of 9.8 HRs were 1.85 (95% CI 1.09-3.15) (unadjusted) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.04-3.13) (adjusted). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for recruitment ELF predicting LRE was 0.58 (95% CI 0.49-0.68), and for second subsequent ELF 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.71). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the association between ELF and CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the potential of ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is nested in UKCTOCS. UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

Association between the cervicovaginal microbiome, BRCA1 mutation status, and risk of ovarian cancer: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Various factors-including age, family history, inflammation, reproductive factors, and tubal ligation-modulate the risk of ovarian cancer. In this study, our aim was to establish whether women with, or at risk of developing, ovarian cancer have an imbalanced cervicovaginal microbiome. METHODS: We did a case-control study in two sets of women aged 18-87 years in the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Norway, and the UK. The ovarian cancer set comprised women with epithelial ovarian cancer and controls (both healthy controls and those diagnosed with benign gynaecological conditions). The BRCA set comprised women with a BRCA1 mutation but without ovarian cancer and controls who were wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2 (both healthy controls and those with benign gynaecological conditions). Cervicovaginal samples were gathered from all participants with the ThinPrep system and then underwent 16S rRNA gene sequencing. For each sample, we calculated the proportion of lactobacilli species (ie, Lactobacillus crispatus, Lactobacillus iners, Lactobacillus gasseri, and Lactobacillus jensenii), which are essential for the generation of a protective low vaginal pH, in the cervicovaginal microbiota. We grouped samples into those in which lactobacilli accounted for at least 50% of the species present (community type L) and those in which lactobacilli accounted for less than 50% of the species present (community type O). We assessed the adjusted association between BRCA1 status and ovarian cancer status and cervicovaginal microbiota community type, using a logistic regression model with a bias reduction method. FINDINGS: Participants were recruited between Jan 2, 2016, and July 21, 2018. The ovarian cancer set (n=360) comprised 176 women with epithelial ovarian cancer, 115 healthy controls and 69 controls with benign gynaecological conditions. The BRCA set (n=220) included 109 women with BRCA1 mutations, 97 healthy controls wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2 and 14 controls with a benign gynaecological condition wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2. On the basis of two-dimensional density plots, receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, and age thresholds used previously, we divided the cohort into those younger than 50 years and those aged 50 years or older. In the ovarian cancer set, women aged 50 years or older had a higher prevalence of community type O microbiota (81 [61%] of 133 ovarian cancer cases and 84 [59%] of 142 healthy controls) than those younger than 50 years (23 [53%] of 43 cases and 12 [29%] of 42 controls). In the ovarian cancer set, women younger than 50 years with ovarian cancer had a significantly higher prevalence of community type O microbiota than did age-matched controls under a logistic regression model with bias correction (odds ratio [OR] 2·80 [95% CI 1·17-6·94]; p=0·020). In the BRCA set, women with BRCA1 mutations younger than 50 years were also more likely to have community type O microbiota than age-matched controls (OR 2·79 [95% CI 1·25-6·68]; p=0·012), after adjustment for pregnancy (ever). This risk was increased further if more than one first-degree family member was affected by any cancer (OR 5·26 [95% CI 1·83-15·30]; p=0·0022). In both sets, we noted that the younger the participants, the stronger the association between community type O microbiota and ovarian cancer or BRCA1 mutation status (eg, OR for community type O for cases aged <40 years in the ovarian cancer set 7·00 [95% CI 1·27-51·44], p=0·025; OR for community type O for BRCA1 mutation carriers aged <35 years in the BRCA set 4·40 [1·14-24·36], p=0·031). INTERPRETATION: The presence of ovarian cancer, or factors known to affect risk for the disease (ie, age and BRCA1 germline mutations), were significantly associated with having a community type O cervicovaginal microbiota. Whether re-instatement of a community type L microbiome by using, for example, vaginal suppositories containing live lactobacilli, would alter the microbiomial composition higher up in the female genital tract and in the fallopian tubes (the site of origin of high-grade serous ovarian cancer), and whether such changes could translate into a reduced incidence of ovarian cancer, needs to be investigated. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, EU Horizon 2020 European Research Council Programme, and The Eve Appeal.

Diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer using a combined protein biomarker panel.

BACKGROUND: An early detection tool for EOC was constructed from analysis of biomarker expression data from serum collected during the UKCTOCS. METHODS: This study included 49 EOC cases (19 Type I and 30 Type II) and 31 controls, representing 482 serial samples spanning seven years pre-diagnosis. A logit model was trained by analysis of dysregulation of expression data of four putative biomarkers, (CA125, phosphatidylcholine-sterol acyltransferase, vitamin K-dependent protein Z and C-reactive protein); by scoring the specificity associated with dysregulation from the baseline expression for each individual. RESULTS: The model is discriminatory, passes k-fold and leave-one-out cross-validations and was further validated in a Type I EOC set. Samples were analysed as a simulated annual screening programme, the algorithm diagnosed cases with >30% PPV 1-2 years pre-diagnosis. For Type II cases (~80% were HGS) the algorithm classified 64% at 1 year and 28% at 2 years tDx as severe. CONCLUSIONS: The panel has the potential to diagnose EOC one-two years earlier than current diagnosis. This analysis provides a tangible worked example demonstrating the potential for development as a screening tool and scrutiny of its properties. Limits on interpretation imposed by the number of samples available are discussed.

Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for ovarian cancer risk prediction in a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified >30 common SNPs associated with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). We evaluated the combined effects of EOC susceptibility SNPs on predicting EOC risk in an independent prospective cohort study. METHODS: We genotyped ovarian cancer susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a nested case-control study (750 cases and 1428 controls) from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening trial. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed and their associations with EOC risk were evaluated using logistic regression. The absolute risk of developing ovarian cancer by PRS percentiles was calculated. RESULTS: The association between serous PRS and serous EOC (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.58, p=1.3×10-11) was stronger than the association between overall PRS and overall EOC risk (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.45, p=5.4×10-10). Women in the top fifth percentile of the PRS had a 3.4-fold increased EOC risk compared with women in the bottom 5% of the PRS, with the absolute EOC risk by age 80 being 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively, for the two groups of women in the population. CONCLUSION: PRSs can be used to predict future risk of developing ovarian cancer for women in the general population. Incorporation of PRSs into risk prediction models for EOC could inform clinical decision-making and health management.

Causal Associations of Adiposity and Body Fat Distribution With Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke Subtypes, and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The implications of different adiposity measures on cardiovascular disease etiology remain unclear. In this article, we quantify and contrast causal associations of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index [WHRadjBMI]) and general adiposity (body mass index [BMI]) with cardiometabolic disease. METHODS: Ninety-seven independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms for BMI and 49 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for WHRadjBMI were used to conduct Mendelian randomization analyses in 14 prospective studies supplemented with coronary heart disease (CHD) data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics; combined total 66 842 cases), stroke from METASTROKE (12 389 ischemic stroke cases), type 2 diabetes mellitus from DIAGRAM (Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis; 34 840 cases), and lipids from GLGC (Global Lipids Genetic Consortium; 213 500 participants) consortia. Primary outcomes were CHD, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and major stroke subtypes; secondary analyses included 18 cardiometabolic traits. RESULTS: Each one standard deviation (SD) higher WHRadjBMI (1 SD≈0.08 U) associated with a 48% excess risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] for CHD, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-1.71), similar to findings for BMI (1 SD≈4.6 kg/m2; OR for CHD, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.22-1.52). Only WHRadjBMI increased risk of ischemic stroke (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03-1.70). For type 2 diabetes mellitus, both measures had large effects: OR, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.38-2.42) and OR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41-2.78) per 1 SD higher WHRadjBMI and BMI, respectively. Both WHRadjBMI and BMI were associated with higher left ventricular hypertrophy, glycemic traits, interleukin 6, and circulating lipids. WHRadjBMI was also associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (39%; 95% CI, 9%-77% per 1 SD). CONCLUSIONS: Both general and central adiposity have causal effects on CHD and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Central adiposity may have a stronger effect on stroke risk. Future estimates of the burden of adiposity on health should include measures of central and general adiposity.

Pleural abnormalities and exposure to elongate mineral particles in Minnesota iron ore (taconite) workers.

BACKGROUND: Iron ore (taconite) mining and processing are an important industry in northern Minnesota and western Michigan. Concerns around exposures have centered largely on exposure to non-asbestiform amphibole elongate mineral particles (EMPs) found in the eastern portion of the Minnesota iron range. METHODS: A cross sectional survey was undertaken of current and former taconite workers and spouses along with a detailed exposure assessment. Participants provided an occupational history and had a chest radiograph performed. RESULTS: A total of 1188 workers participated. Potential exposures to non-amphibole EMPs were evident across multiple jobs in all active mines. Pleural abnormalities were found in 16.8% of workers. There was an association of pleural abnormalities with cumulative EMP exposure that was not specific to the eastern portion of the range. CONCLUSION: There was evidence of a mild to moderate increase in pleural abnormalities in this population of miners, associated with geographically non-specific cumulative EMP exposure.

Testing breast cancer serum biomarkers for early detection and prognosis in pre-diagnosis samples.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although mammography screening is available, there is an ongoing interest in improved early detection and prognosis. Herein, we have analysed a combination of serological biomarkers in a case-control cohort of sera taken before diagnosis. METHODS: This nested case-control study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) used serum samples from 239 women who subsequently developed breast cancer and 239 matched cancer-free controls. Sera were screened by ELISA for 9 candidate markers. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to examine associations with clinico-pathological features and between case controls in different time groups before diagnosis. RESULTS: Significant associations with clinico-pathological features related to prognosis were found for several candidates (CA15-3, HSP90A and PAI-1). However, there were no consistent differences between cases and controls for any candidate in the lead up to diagnosis. Whilst combination models outperformed single markers, there was no increase in performance towards diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study using unique pre-diagnosis samples shows that CA15-3, HSP90A and PAI-1 have potential as early prognostic markers and warrant further investigation. However, none of the candidates or combinations would be useful for screening.

A combined biomarker panel shows improved sensitivity for the early detection of ovarian cancer allowing the identification of the most aggressive type II tumours.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for biomarkers for the early detection of ovarian cancer (OC). The purpose of this study was to assess whether changes in serum levels of lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT), sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), glucose-regulated protein, 78 kDa (GRP78), calprotectin and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 (IGFBP2) are observed before clinical presentation and to assess the performance of these markers alone and in combination with CA125 for early detection. METHODS: This nested case-control study used samples from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening trial. The sample set consisted of 482 serum samples from 49 OC subjects and 31 controls, with serial samples spanning up to 7 years pre-diagnosis. The set was divided into the following: (I) a discovery set, which included all women with only two samples from each woman, the first at<14 months and the second at >32 months to diagnosis; and (ii) a corroboration set, which included all the serial samples from the same women spanning the 7-year period. Lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase, SHBG, GRP78, calprotectin and IGFBP2 were measured using ELISA. The performance of the markers to detect cancers pre-diagnosis was assessed. RESULTS: A combined threshold model IGFBP2 >78.5 ng ml-1 : LCAT <8.831 µg ml-1 : CA125 >35 U ml-1 outperformed CA125 alone for the earlier detection of OC. The threshold model was able to identify the most aggressive Type II cancers. In addition, it increased the lead time by 5-6 months and identified 26% of Type I subjects and 13% of Type II subjects that were not identified by CA125 alone. CONCLUSIONS: Combined biomarker panels (IGFBP2, LCAT and CA125) outperformed CA125 up to 3 years pre-diagnosis, identifying cancers missed by CA125, providing increased diagnostic lead times for Type I and Type II OC. The model identified more aggressive Type II cancers, with women crossing the threshold dying earlier, indicating that these markers can improve on the sensitivity of CA125 alone for the early detection of OC.

The cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer: results from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

BACKGROUND: To assess the within-trial cost-effectiveness of an NHS ovarian cancer screening (OCS) programme using data from UKCTOCS and extrapolate results based on average life expectancy. METHODS: Within-trial economic evaluation of no screening (C) vs either (1) an annual OCS programme using transvaginal ultrasound (USS) or (2) an annual ovarian cancer multimodal screening programme with serum CA125 interpreted using a risk algorithm (ROCA) and transvaginal ultrasound as a second-line test (MMS), plus comparison of lifetime extrapolation of the no screening arm and the MMS programme using both a predictive and a Markov model. RESULTS: Using a CA125-ROCA cost of £20, the within-trial results show USS to be strictly dominated by MMS, with the MMS vs C comparison returning an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £91 452 per life year gained (LYG). If the CA125-ROCA unit cost is reduced to £15, the ICER becomes £77 818 per LYG. Predictive extrapolation over the expected lifetime of the UKCTOCS women returns an ICER of £30 033 per LYG, while Markov modelling produces an ICER of £46 922 per QALY. CONCLUSION: Analysis suggests that, after accounting for the lead time required to establish full mortality benefits, a national OCS programme based on the MMS strategy quickly approaches the current NICE thresholds for cost-effectiveness when extrapolated out to lifetime as compared with the within-trial ICER estimates. Whether MMS could be recommended on economic grounds would depend on the confirmation and size of the mortality benefit at the end of an ongoing follow-up of the UKCTOCS cohort.

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality. METHODS: In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. FINDINGS: Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202,638 women: 50,640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50,639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101,359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202,546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50,624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50,623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101,299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345,570 MMS and 327,775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0-12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0-14 of 15% (95% CI -3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (-7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (-20 to 31) in years 0-7 and 23% (1-46) in years 7-14, and in the USS group, of 2% (-27 to 26) in years 0-7 and 21% (-2 to 42) in years 7-14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (-2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (-27 to 43) in years 0-7 and 28% (-3 to 49) in years 7-14 in favour of MMS. INTERPRETATION: Although the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7-14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.