RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: The Incredible Years Teacher® Classroom Management (IY-TCM) intervention is associated with short-term improvements in mental health difficulties in young people. The aim was to estimate the long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of the IY-TCM intervention compared with no intervention. METHODS: An existing health economic model (LifeSim 1.0) was used to translate short-term changes in the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), based on the Supporting Teachers and childRen in Schools cluster randomized controlled trial of the IY-TCM intervention in schools, into estimated medium- and long-term effects using multiple longitudinal data sets. LifeSim 1.0 was adapted to incorporate teacher-reported SDQ and account for individual heterogeneity. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted using the trial-based intervention cost with subgroup analyses on deprivation, conduct scores and parental depression in the simulated baseline population. RESULTS: Regression analyses show significant predictor variables for intervention effectiveness, including deprivation and baseline SDQ. LifeSim results indicate small gains in long-term outcomes, and cost-effective analyses estimated that the IY-TCM intervention could be cost-effective, but there was a large amount of uncertainty (net monetary benefit = £10, Estimated CI = -£134, £156). Benefits and certainty of cost-effectiveness were greater for some subgroups, such as those with high conduct scores at baseline (net monetary benefit = £206, Estimated CI = £26, £318). CONCLUSIONS: IY-TCM could be cost-effective, but there was a large amount of uncertainty around costs and benefits. Greater benefits for pupils with difficulties at baseline suggest that the intervention may be more cost-effective for schools in more deprived areas with high levels of conduct problems.