Effects of climate on West Nile Virus transmission risk used for public health decision-making in Quebec.

BACKGROUND: In 2002, major human epidemics of West Nile Virus (WNV) were reported in five cities in the North East region of North America. The present analysis examines the climatic conditions that were conducive to the WNV epidemic, in order to provide information to public health managers who eventually must decide on the implementation of a preventive larvicide spraying program in Quebec, Canada. Two sets of variables, the first observed in the summer of 2002 and the second in the preceding winter were analysed to study their potential as explanatory variables for the emergence of the virus at epidemic levels. RESULTS: Results show that the climatic conditions observed in the year 2002 have contributed to the emergence of the virus and can be observed once every forty years on average. The analysis has shown that the 2002 events observed in several North East North American cities are characterized by two main variables: the number of degree-days below -5 degrees C in the winter (DD-5) and the number of degree-days greater than 25 degrees C in the summer (DD25). CONCLUSION: In the context of a declining rate of human and aviary infection to WNV, this element contributed to the decision to suspend the use of preventive larvicides in the province of Quebec in 2006 and for the foreseeable future. The second part of this study indicates that it is very important to estimate the risk that extreme values can be observed simultaneously in the summer and in the winter preceding the appearance of the virus. The proposed models provide important information to public health officials, weeks before the appearance of the virus, and can therefore be useful to help prevent human epidemics.

Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in California Rivers.

The total amount of suspended sediment load carried by a stream during a year is usually transported during one or several extreme events related to high river flow and intense rainfall, leading to very high suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). In this study quantiles of SSC derived from annual maximums and the 99th percentile of SSC series are considered to be estimated locally in a site-specific approach using regional information. Analyses of relationships between physiographic characteristics and the selected indicators were undertaken using the localities of 5-km radius draining of each sampling site. Multiple regression models were built to test the regional estimation for these indicators of suspended sediment transport. To assess the accuracy of the estimates, a Jack-Knife re-sampling procedure was used to compute the relative bias and root mean square error of the models. Results show that for the 19 stations considered in California, the extreme SSCs can be estimated with 40-60% uncertainty, depending on the presence of flow regulation in the basin. This modelling approach is likely to prove functional in other Mediterranean climate watersheds since they appear useful in California, where geologic, climatic, physiographic, and land-use conditions are highly variable.

Exploratory study of suspended sediment concentrations downstream of harvested peat bogs.

Peat bog harvesting is an important industry in many countries, including Canada. To harvest peat, bogs are drained and drainage water is evacuated towards neighboring rivers, estuaries or coastal waters. High suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) were found in the drainage water at one particular site during the 2001-2002 spring seasons in New Brunswick (Canada). The main objective of this study was to verify this observation at other sites, compare SSC levels leaving harvested peat bogs with those leaving an unharvested bog, and to determine if high SSC events happen only in Spring or all year round. Suspended sediment concentrations were monitored downstream of three harvested peat bogs and an unharvested reference bog located in New Brunswick during the ice free seasons of 2003-2004. On average, SSC at the harvested sites exceeded 25 mg/l, which is the recommended daily maximum concentration, 72% of the time, while the same concentration was exceeded 30% of the time at the unharvested sites. SSC were found to be significantly higher at harvested sites than at the reference sites for all seasons. The highest SSC medians were recorded in the Fall but SSC was elevated in all seasons. High SSC levels in receiving waters may be caused by field ditching activities and insufficient sediment controls. Findings suggest the NB Peat Harvesting 25 mg/l SSC guideline should be reviewed.