Second-generation surveillance for HIV/AIDS in Pakistan: results from the 4th round of Integrated Behavior and Biological Survey 2011-2012.

OBJECTIVES: In an effort to fully analyse and understand the HIV situation and its epidemiology in Pakistan, a bilateral collaboration between the National AIDS Control Program and the Canadian International Development Agency resulted in the establishment of an effective second-generation surveillance (SGS) system for HIV/AIDS between 2004 and 2012 in accordance with the published guidelines. This paper presents findings from the 4th round of SGS. METHODS: A mapping exercise was initially conducted for size estimations of the key vulnerable populations: people who inject drugs (PWIDs), male sex workers (MSWs), hijra sex workers (HSWs), and female sex workers (FSWs), followed by an Integrated Behavioral and Biological Surveillance in 20 selected cities across Pakistan. RESULTS: The estimated sizes of the four key populations mapped in the 20 cities were 89 178 FSWs, 46 351 PWIDs, 23 317 HSWs and 19 119 MSWs. The HIV sero-prevalence among PWIDs was the highest among all key populations surveyed at 37.8% (CI 37.3 to 38.3) nationally, followed by a prevalence of 7.2% (CI 6.8 to 7.5) among HSWs, 3.1% (CI 2.8 to 3.4) among MSWs and 0.8% (CI 0.4 to 1.0) for FSWs. Various key risk behaviours, that is, sharing of syringes by PWIDs and inconsistent use of condoms by sex workers, were documented. CONCLUSIONS: Pakistan's HIV epidemic that once was characterised primarily by transmission among PWIDs is now increasingly characterised by significant sexual transmission, and all types of sex workers (male, hijra and female) exhibit epidemiological proportions of infection. There is a need to develop concrete strategic plans for each vulnerable subpopulation, initially focusing prevention resources on those with a higher risk or vulnerability.

The organisation, operational dynamics and structure of female sex work in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is known to have large populations of female sex workers (FSWs) with considerable geographic heterogeneity in their characteristics. In this paper, we describe the social organisation and structural patterns of female sex work in different geographic regions of Pakistan. METHODS: We report geographic and network mapping data collected among FSWs in 15 cities across Pakistan in 2011 as part of the Canada-Pakistan HIV/AIDS Surveillance Project. RESULTS: A total number of 89 178 FSWs were estimated in the target cities for an average of 7.2 FSWs per 1000 adult males. 55% of the estimated number of FSWs concentrated in Karachi and Lahore. Based on the operations of female sex work, two major typologies of FSWs were identified: establishment-based and non-establishment-based. FSWs were further subtyped into those operating through brothels, homes, kothikhanas, streets and by cell phone. Cities varied considerably in terms of predominance of different FSW typologies. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity among FSWs in Pakistan, geographically and in terms of operational typology. Understanding the social organisation of sex work and the influence of social-cultural and legal factors in Pakistan is essential for the design of HIV prevention programmes and other services for FSWs.

Heterogeneity of characteristics, structure, and dynamics of male and hijra sex workers in selected cities of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: We sought to describe the characteristics and operational dynamics of male sex workers (MSW) and hijra sex workers (HSWs) in 11 cities across Pakistan in 2011. METHODS: We report descriptive statistics of self-reported sexual behaviour data from cross-sectional mapping and biological and behavioural surveys conducted among 1431 MSWs and 1415 HSWs in four cities across Pakistan in 2011. RESULTS: While Karachi had the largest numbers of MSWs and HSWs, Quetta had the largest relative population sizes, with 3.6 MSWs per 1000 male adults and 3.3 HSWs per 1000 male adults. There was considerable variability in the proportion of HSWs who operate through deras, ranging from 2.2% in Peshawar to 62.7% in Karachi. The number of HSWs per guru varies by city, from 1.5 in Quetta to 16.5 HSWs per guru in Karachi. Among HSWs, the use of mobile phones for solicitation ranged from 37.6% in Quetta to 83% in Peshawar and among MSWs the use of mobile phones ranged from 27% in Karachi to 52% in Quetta. In Quetta, a large proportion of HSWs (41%) find clients through gurus. Client volume tended to be higher among HSWs and among both MSWs and HSWs in Quetta and Peshawar. Condom use with clients was most consistent in Quetta, with 31% of MSWs and 41% of HSWs reporting always using condoms with clients. Peshawar had the greatest proportion reporting never using condoms. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable geographic heterogeneity in the characteristics and operational dynamics of MSWs and HSWs across Pakistan.

The size and distribution of key populations at greater risk of HIV in Pakistan: implications for resource allocation for scaling up HIV prevention programmes.

BACKGROUND: With competing interests, limited funding and a socially conservative context, there are many barriers to implementing evidence-informed HIV prevention programmes for sex workers and injection drug users in Pakistan. Meanwhile, the HIV prevalence is increasing among these populations across Pakistan. We sought to propose and describe an approach to resource allocation which would maximise the impact and allocative efficiency of HIV prevention programmes. METHODS: Programme performance reports were used to assess current resource allocation. Population size estimates derived from mapping conducted in 2011 among injection drug users and hijra, male and female sex workers and programme costs per person documented from programmes in the province of Sindh and also in India were used to estimate the cost to deliver services to 80% of these key population members across Pakistan. Cities were prioritised according to key population size. RESULTS: To achieve 80% population coverage, HIV prevention programmes should be implemented in 10 major cities across Pakistan for a total annual operating cost of approximately US$3.5 million, which is much less than current annual expenditures. The total cost varies according to the local needs and the purchasing power of the local currency. CONCLUSIONS: By prioritising key populations at greatest risk of HIV in cities with the largest populations and limited resources, may be most effectively harnessed to quell the spread of HIV in Pakistan.

Patterns and trends in Pakistan's heterogeneous HIV epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Considerable HIV transmission occurs among injection drug users (IDUs) in Pakistan and recently the HIV prevalence has been increasing among male (MSW), hijra (transgender; HSW) and female (FSW) sex workers. We describe past and estimate future patterns of HIV emergence among these populations in several cities in Pakistan. METHODS: The density of these key populations per 1000 adult men was calculated using 2011 mapping data from Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Larkana, Peshawar and Quetta, and surveillance data were used to assess bridging between these key populations. We used the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package model to estimate and project HIV epidemics among these key populations in Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad and Larkana. RESULTS: The density and bridging of key populations varied across cities. Lahore had the largest FSW population (11.5/1000 adult men) and the smallest IDU population (1.7/1000 adult men). Quetta had the most sexual and drug injection bridging between sex workers and IDUs (6.7%, 7.0% and 3.8% of FSW, MSW and HSW, respectively, reported injecting drugs). Model evidence suggests that by 2015 HIV prevalence is likely to reach 17-22% among MSWs/HSWs in Karachi, 44-49% among IDUs in Lahore and 46-66% among IDUs in Karachi. Projection suggests the prevalence may reach as high as 65-75% among IDUs in Faisalabad by 2025. HIV prevalence is also estimated to increase among FSWs, particularly in Karachi and Larkana. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to closely monitor regional and subpopulation epidemic patterns and implement prevention programmes customised to local epidemics.

The importance of public sector health facility-level data for monitoring changes in maternal mortality risks among communities: the case of pakistan.

This paper illustrates the importance of monitoring health facility-level information to monitor changes in maternal mortality risks. The annual facility-level maternal mortality ratios (MMRs), complications to live births ratios and case fatality ratios (CFRs) were computed from data recorded during 2007 and 2009 in 31 upgraded public sector health facilities across Pakistan. The facility-level MMR declined by about 18%; both the number of Caesarean sections and the episodes of complications as a percentage of live births increased; and CFR based on Caesarean sections and episodes of complications declined by 29% and 37%, respectively. The observed increases in the proportion of women with complications among those who come to these facilities point to a reduction in the delay in reaching facilities (first and second delays; Thaddeus & Maine, 1994); the decrease in CFRs points to improvements in treating obstetric complications and a reduction in the delay in receiving treatment once at facilities (the third delay). These findings point to a decline in maternal mortality risks among communities served by these facilities. A system of woman-level data collection instituted at health facilities with comprehensive emergency obstetric care is essential to monitor changes in the effects of any reduction in the three delays and any improvement in quality of care or the effectiveness of treating pregnancy-related complications among women reaching these facilities. Such a system of information gathering at these health facilities would also help policymakers and programme mangers to measure and improve the effectiveness of safe-motherhood initiatives and to monitor progress being made toward achieving the fifth Millennium Development Goal.