Estimating global arthropod species richness: refining probabilistic models using probability bounds analysis.

A key challenge in the estimation of tropical arthropod species richness is the appropriate management of the large uncertainties associated with any model. Such uncertainties had largely been ignored until recently, when we attempted to account for uncertainty associated with model variables, using Monte Carlo analysis. This model is restricted by various assumptions. Here, we use a technique known as probability bounds analysis to assess the influence of assumptions about (1) distributional form and (2) dependencies between variables, and to construct probability bounds around the original model prediction distribution. The original Monte Carlo model yielded a median estimate of 6.1 million species, with a 90 % confidence interval of [3.6, 11.4]. Here we found that the probability bounds (p-bounds) surrounding this cumulative distribution were very broad, owing to uncertainties in distributional form and dependencies between variables. Replacing the implicit assumption of pure statistical independence between variables in the model with no dependency assumptions resulted in lower and upper p-bounds at 0.5 cumulative probability (i.e., at the median estimate) of 2.9-12.7 million. From here, replacing probability distributions with probability boxes, which represent classes of distributions, led to even wider bounds (2.4-20.0 million at 0.5 cumulative probability). Even the 100th percentile of the uppermost bound produced (i.e., the absolutely most conservative scenario) did not encompass the well-known hyper-estimate of 30 million species of tropical arthropods. This supports the lower estimates made by several authors over the last two decades.

Quantifying uncertainty in estimation of tropical arthropod species richness.

There is a bewildering range of estimates for the number of arthropods on Earth. Several measures are based on extrapolation from species specialized to tropical rain forest, each using specific assumptions and justifications. These approaches have not provided any sound measure of uncertainty associated with richness estimates. We present two models that account for parameter uncertainty by replacing point estimates with probability distributions. The models predict medians of 3.7 million and 2.5 million tropical arthropod species globally, with 90% confidence intervals of [2.0, 7.4] million and [1.1, 5.4] million, respectively. Estimates of 30 million or greater are predicted to have <0.00001 probability. Sensitivity analyses identified uncertainty in the proportion of canopy arthropod species that are beetles as the most influential parameter, although uncertainties associated with three other parameters were also important. Using the median estimates suggests that in spite of 250 years of taxonomy and around 855,000 species of arthropods already described, approximately 70% await description.

Guild-specific patterns of species richness and host specialization in plant-herbivore food webs from a tropical forest.

1. The extent to which plant-herbivore feeding interactions are specialized is key to understand the processes maintaining the diversity of both tropical forest plants and their insect herbivores. However, studies documenting the full complexity of tropical plant-herbivore food webs are lacking. 2. We describe a complex, species-rich plant-herbivore food web for lowland rain forest in Papua New Guinea, resolving 6818 feeding links between 224 plant species and 1490 herbivore species drawn from 11 distinct feeding guilds. By standardizing sampling intensity and the phylogenetic diversity of focal plants, we are able to make the first rigorous and unbiased comparisons of specificity patterns across feeding guilds. 3. Specificity was highly variable among guilds, spanning almost the full range of theoretically possible values from extreme trophic generalization to monophagy. 4. We identify guilds of herbivores that are most likely to influence the composition of tropical forest vegetation through density-dependent herbivory or apparent competition. 5. We calculate that 251 herbivore species (48 of them unique) are associated with each rain forest tree species in our study site so that the ∼200 tree species coexisting in the lowland rain forest community are involved in ∼50,000 trophic interactions with ∼9600 herbivore species of insects. This is the first estimate of total herbivore and interaction number in a rain forest plant-herbivore food web. 6. A comprehensive classification of insect herbivores into 24 guilds is proposed, providing a framework for comparative analyses across ecosystems and geographical regions.

Acronymolpus, a new genus of Eumolpinae, endemic to New Caledonia (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae).

The genus Acronymolpus is proposed as new. It is represented by four new species, all of which are endemic to New Caledonia. Proposed are: Acronymolpus joliveti sp. n. (type species), Acronymolpus gressitti sp. n., Acronymolpus meteorus sp. n., and Acronymolpus turbo sp. n.