Systematic Review of Shoulder Imaging Abnormalities in Asymptomatic Adult Shoulders (SCRUTINY): Abnormalities of the glenohumeral joint.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to determine the population prevalence of glenohumeral joint imaging abnormalities in asymptomatic adults. METHOD: We systematically reviewed studies reporting the prevalence of X-ray, ultrasound (US), computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) abnormalities in adults without shoulder symptoms (PROSPERO registration number CRD42018090041). This report presents the glenohumeral joint imaging findings. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and Web of Science from inception to June 2023 and assessed risk of bias using a tool designed for prevalence studies. The primary analysis was planned for the general population. The certainty of evidence was assessed using a modified Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) for prognostic studies. RESULTS: Thirty-five studies (4 X-ray, 10 US, 20 MRI, 1 X-ray and MRI) reported useable prevalence data. Two studies were population-based (846 shoulders), 15 studies included miscellaneous study populations (1715 shoulders) and 18 included athletes (727 shoulders). All were judged to be at high risk of bias. Clinical diversity precluded pooling. Population prevalence of glenohumeral osteoarthritis ranged from 15% to 75% (2 studies, 846 shoulders, 1 X-ray, 1 X-ray and MRI; low certainty evidence). Prevalence of labral abnormalities, humeral head cysts and long head of biceps tendon abnormalities were 20%, 5%, 30% respectively (1 study, 20 shoulders, X-ray and MRI; very low certainty evidence). CONCLUSION: The population-based prevalence of glenohumeral joint imaging abnormalities in asymptomatic individuals remains uncertain, but may range between 30% and 75%. Better estimates are needed to inform best evidence-based management of people with shoulder pain.

Diagnostic performance of clinical prediction rules to detect group A beta-haemolytic streptococci in people with acute pharyngitis: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the diagnostic performance of Clinical Prediction Rules (CPRs) developed to detect group A Beta-haemolytic streptococci in people with acute pharyngitis (or sore throat). STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science (inception-September 2022) for studies deriving and/or validating CPRs comprised of ≥2 predictors from an individual's history or physical examination. Two authors independently screened articles, extracted data and assessed risk of bias in included studies. A meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Instead we compared the performance of CPRs when they were validated in the same study population (head-to-head comparisons). We used a modified grading of recommendations, assessment, development, and evaluations (GRADE) approach to assess certainty of the evidence. RESULTS: We included 63 studies, all judged at high risk of bias. Of 24 derived CPRs, 7 were externally validated (in 46 external validations). Five validation studies provided data for head-to-head comparison of four pairs of CPRs. Very low certainty evidence favoured the Centor CPR over the McIsaac (2 studies) and FeverPain CPRs (1 study) and found the Centor CPR was equivalent to the Walsh CPR (1 study). The AbuReesh and Steinhoff 2005 CPRs had a similar poor discriminative ability (1 study). Within and between study comparisons suggested the performance of the Centor CPR may be better in adults (>18 years). CONCLUSION: Very low certainty evidence suggests a better performance of the Centor CPR. When deciding about antibiotic prescribing for pharyngitis patients, involving patients in a shared decision making discussion about the likely benefits and harms, including antibiotic resistance, is recommended. Further research of higher rigour, which compares CPRs across multiple settings, is needed.

Antibiotics for acute otitis media in children.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common diseases in childhood for which antibiotics are commonly prescribed; a systematic review reported a pooled prevalence of 85.6% in high-income countries. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in the Cochrane Library in 1997 and updated in 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2015. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of antibiotics for children with AOM. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Current Contents, CINAHL, LILACS and two trial registers. The date of the search was 14 February 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing 1) antimicrobial drugs with placebo, and 2) immediate antibiotic treatment with expectant observation (including delayed antibiotic prescribing) in children with AOM. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened trials for inclusion and extracted data using the standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. Our primary outcomes were: 1) pain at various time points (24 hours, two to three days, four to seven days, 10 to 14 days), and 2) adverse effects likely to be related to the use of antibiotics. Secondary outcomes were: 1) abnormal tympanometry findings, 2) tympanic membrane perforation, 3) contralateral otitis (in unilateral cases), 4) AOM recurrences, 5) serious complications related to AOM and 6) long-term effects (including the number of parent-reported AOM symptom episodes, antibiotic prescriptions and health care utilisation as assessed at least one year after randomisation). We used the GRADE approach to rate the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest. MAIN RESULTS: Antibiotics versus placebo We included 13 trials (3401 children and 3938 AOM episodes) from high-income countries, which we assessed at generally low risk of bias. Antibiotics do not reduce pain at 24 hours (risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 1.01; 5 trials, 1394 children; high-certainty evidence), or at four to seven days (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.14; 7 trials, 1264 children), but result in almost a third fewer children having pain at two to three days (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.88; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 20; 7 trials, 2320 children; high-certainty evidence), and likely result in two-thirds fewer having pain at 10 to 12 days (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.66; NNTB 7; 1 trial, 278 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Antibiotics increase the risk of adverse events such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) 14; 8 trials, 2107 children; high-certainty evidence). Antibiotics reduce the risk of children having abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96; NNTB 11; 7 trials, 2138 children), slightly reduce the risk of experiencing tympanic membrane perforations (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.89; NNTB 33; 5 trials, 1075 children) and halve the risk of contralateral otitis episodes (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.95; NNTB 11; 4 trials, 906 children). However, antibiotics do not reduce the risk of abnormal tympanometry findings at six to eight weeks (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.13; 3 trials, 953 children) and at three months (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.34; 3 trials, 809 children) or late AOM recurrences (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.11; 6 trials, 2200 children). Severe complications were rare, and the evidence suggests that serious complications do not differ between children treated with either antibiotics or placebo. Immediate antibiotics versus expectant observation We included six trials (1556 children) from high-income countries. The evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may result in a reduction of pain at two to three days (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.79; NNTB 8; 1 trial, 396 children; low-certainty evidence), but probably do not reduce the risk of pain at three to seven days (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.12; 4 trials, 959 children; moderate-certainty evidence), and may not reduce the risk of pain at 11 to 14 days (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.10; 1 trial, 247 children; low-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics increase the risk of vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.51; NNTH 10; 3 trials, 946 children; high-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics probably do not reduce the proportion of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at four weeks and evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may not reduce the risk of tympanic membrane perforation and AOM recurrences. No serious complications occurred in either group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review reveals that antibiotics probably have no effect on pain at 24 hours, a slight effect on pain in the days following and only a modest effect on the number of children with tympanic perforations, contralateral otitis episodes and abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks compared with placebo in children with AOM. In high-income countries, most cases of AOM spontaneously remit without complications. The benefits of antibiotics must be weighed against the possible harms: for every 14 children treated with antibiotics, one child experienced an adverse event (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) that would not have occurred if antibiotics were withheld. For most children with mild disease in high-income countries, an expectant observational approach seems justified. Therefore, clinical management should emphasise advice about adequate analgesia and the limited role for antibiotics.

Immunoglobulin treatment for hospitalised infants and young children with respiratory syncytial virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Millions of children are hospitalised due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection every year. Treatment is supportive, and current therapies (e.g. inhaled bronchodilators, epinephrine, nebulised hypertonic saline, and corticosteroids) are ineffective or have limited effect. Respiratory syncytial virus immunoglobulin may be used prophylactically to prevent hospital admission from RSV-related illness. It may be considered for the treatment of established severe RSV infection or for treatment in an immunocompromised host, although it is not licensed for this purpose. It is unclear whether immunoglobulins improve outcomes when used as a treatment for established RSV infection in infants and young children admitted to hospital. This is an update of a review first published in 2019. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of immunoglobulins for the treatment of RSV-proven lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children aged up to three years, admitted to hospital. SEARCH METHODS: For this 2022 update, we searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which contains the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Specialised Register, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science (from inception to 2 December 2022) with no restrictions. We searched two trial registries for ongoing trials (to 2 December 2022) and checked the reference lists of reviews and included articles for additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials comparing immunoglobulins with placebo in hospitalised infants and children aged up to three years with laboratory-diagnosed RSV lower respiratory tract infection. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected trials, assessed risk of bias, and extracted data. We assessed evidence certainty using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: In total, we included eight trials involving 906 infants and children aged up to three years. We included one new trial in this update. The immunoglobulin preparations used in these trials included anti-RSV immunoglobulin and the monoclonal antibody preparations palivizumab and motavizumab. Five trials were conducted at single or multiple sites within a single high-income country (four in the USA, one in Qatar). Three trials included study sites in different countries. All three of these trials included study sites in one or more high-income countries (USA, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Qatar), with two trials also including a study site in a middle-income country (Panama). Five of the eight trials were "supported" or "sponsored" by the trial drug manufacturers. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of immunoglobulins on mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 to 5.27; 4 studies, 309 participants). There were four deaths - two amongst 98 children receiving immunoglobulins, and two amongst 98 children receiving placebo. One additional death occurred in a fourth trial, however the study group of the child was not known and the data were not included in the analysis (very low-certainty evidence). The use of immunoglobulins in infants and children admitted to hospital with RSV proven LRTI probably results in little to no difference in the length of hospitalisation (mean difference (MD) -0.13 days, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.12; 6 studies, 737 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Immunoglobulins may result in little to no difference in the number of children who experience one or more adverse events of any severity or seriousness compared to placebo (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.78; 5 studies, 340 participants; low-certainty evidence) or the number of children who experience one or more adverse events judged by study investigators to be serious in nature, compared to placebo (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.79; 4 studies, 238 participants; low-certainty evidence). Certainty of evidence for secondary outcomes was low. This evidence suggests that use of immunoglobulins results in little to no difference in the need for, or duration of, mechanical ventilation and the need for, or duration of, supplemental oxygen. The use of immunoglobulins does not reduce the need for admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and when children are admitted to the ICU results in little to no difference in the duration of ICU stay. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We are very uncertain about the effect of immunoglobulins on mortality. We are moderately certain that use of immunoglobulins in hospitalised infants and children may result in little to no difference in the length of hospitalisation. Immunoglobulins may result in little to no difference in adverse events, the need for or duration of mechanical ventilation, supplemental oxygen, or admission to the intensive care unit, though we are less certain about this evidence and the true effect of immunoglobulins on these outcomes may differ markedly from the estimated effect observed in this review. All trials were conducted in high-income countries, and data from populations in which the rate of death from RSV infection is higher are lacking.

Self-Management for Men With Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Lower urinary tract symptoms are very common in older men. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of self-management interventions on these symptoms. METHODS: We included randomized controlled trials comparing the effect of self-management interventions (alone or combined with drug therapy) with usual care or drug therapy alone in men with lower urinary tract symptoms. Two independent reviewers screened retrieved articles, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. The primary outcome was lower urinary tract symptom severity. Where data were available, we calculated mean differences (MDs) between the interventions. RESULTS: Analyses were based on 8 studies among 1,006 adult men. Seven of these studies were judged to be at high risk in 2 of the 7 domains of bias. The nature of the self-management interventions varied across studies. There was a clinically important reduction in the 35-point International Prostate Symptom Score at 6 months favoring self-management interventions compared with usual care (MD = -7.4; 95% CI, -8.8 to -6.1; 2 studies). The reduction in score with self-management was similar to that achieved with drug therapy at 6 to 12 weeks (MD = 0.0; 95% CI, -2.0 to 2.0; 3 studies). Self-management had a smaller, additional benefit at 6 weeks when added to drug therapy (MD = -2.3; 95% CI, -4.1 to -0.5; 1 study). CONCLUSIONS: We found moderate-quality evidence (suggesting reasonable certainty in estimates) for the effectiveness of self-management for treating lower urinary tract symptoms in men. We therefore recommend the use of self-management interventions for this patient population.

The decisions and processes involved in a systematic search strategy: a hierarchical framework.

OBJECTIVE: The decisions and processes that may compose a systematic search strategy have not been formally identified and categorized. This study aimed to (1) identify all decisions that could be made and processes that could be used in a systematic search strategy and (2) create a hierarchical framework of those decisions and processes. METHODS: The literature was searched for documents or guides on conducting a literature search for a systematic review or other evidence synthesis. The decisions or processes for locating studies were extracted from eligible documents and categorized into a structured hierarchical framework. Feedback from experts was sought to revise the framework. The framework was revised iteratively and tested using recently published literature on systematic searching. RESULTS: Guidance documents were identified from expert organizations and a search of the literature and Internet. Data were extracted from 74 eligible documents to form the initial framework. The framework was revised based on feedback from 9 search experts and further review and testing by the authors. The hierarchical framework consists of 119 decisions or processes sorted into 17 categories and arranged under 5 topics. These topics are "Skill of the searcher," "Selecting information to identify," "Searching the literature electronically," "Other ways to identify studies," and "Updating the systematic review." CONCLUSIONS: The work identifies and classifies the decisions and processes used in systematic searching. Future work can now focus on assessing and prioritizing research on the best methods for successfully identifying all eligible studies for a systematic review.

Improving the translation of search strategies using the Polyglot Search Translator: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Searching for studies to include in a systematic review (SR) is a time- and labor-intensive process with searches of multiple databases recommended. To reduce the time spent translating search strings across databases, a tool called the Polyglot Search Translator (PST) was developed. The authors evaluated whether using the PST as a search translation aid reduces the time required to translate search strings without increasing errors. METHODS: In a randomized trial, twenty participants were randomly allocated ten database search strings and then randomly assigned to translate five with the assistance of the PST (PST-A method) and five without the assistance of the PST (manual method). We compared the time taken to translate search strings, the number of errors made, and how close the number of references retrieved by a translated search was to the number retrieved by a reference standard translation. RESULTS: Sixteen participants performed 174 translations using the PST-A method and 192 translations using the manual method. The mean time taken to translate a search string with the PST-A method was 31 minutes versus 45 minutes by the manual method (mean difference: 14 minutes). The mean number of errors made per translation by the PST-A method was 8.6 versus 14.6 by the manual method. Large variation in the number of references retrieved makes results for this outcome inconclusive, although the number of references retrieved by the PST-A method was closer to the reference standard translation than the manual method. CONCLUSION: When used to assist with translating search strings across databases, the PST can increase the speed of translation without increasing errors. Errors in search translations can still be a problem, and search specialists should be aware of this.

A review of changes to the attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder age of onset criterion using the checklist for modifying disease definitions.

BACKGROUND: Widening definitions of health conditions have the potential to affect millions of people and should only occur when there is strong evidence of benefit. In the last version of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), the DSM-5 Committee changed the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) age of onset criterion in two ways: raising the age of symptom onset and removing the requirement for symptoms to cause impairment. Given concerns about ADHD prevalence and treatment rates, we aimed to evaluate the evidence available to support these changes using a recently developed Checklist for Modifying Disease Definitions. METHODS: We identified and analysed research informing changes to the DSM-IV-TR ADHD age of onset criterion. We compared this evidence to the evidence recommended in the Checklist for Modifying Disease Definitions. RESULTS: The changes to the DSM-IV-TR age of onset criterion were based on a literature review (publicly available as a 2 page document with online table of included studies), which we appraised as at high risk of bias. Estimates of the change in ADHD prevalence resulting from change to the age of onset criterion were based on a single study that included only a small number of children with ADHD (n = 68) and only assessed the impact of change to the age component of the criterion. No evidence was used by, or available to the Committee regarding the impact on prevalence of removal of the requirement for impairment, or the effect of the criterion changes on diagnostic precision, the prognosis of, or the potential benefits or harms for individuals diagnosed by the new, but not old criterion. CONCLUSIONS: The changes to the age of onset criterion were based on minimal research evidence that suffered from either high risk of bias or poor applicability. The minimal documentation available makes it difficult to judge the rigor of the process behind the criterion changes. Use of the Checklist for Modifying Disease Definitions would assist future proposed modifications of the DSM ADHD criteria, provide guidance on the studies needed to inform potential changes and would improve the transparency and documentation of the process.

Immunoglobulin treatment for hospitalised infants and young children with respiratory syncytial virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Millions of children are hospitalised due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection every year. Treatment is supportive, and current therapies (e.g. inhaled bronchodilators, epinephrine, nebulised hypertonic saline, and corticosteroids) are ineffective or have limited effect. Respiratory syncytial virus immunoglobulin is sometimes used prophylactically to prevent hospital admission from RSV-related illness. It may be considered for the treatment of established severe RSV infection or for treatment in an immunocompromised host, although it is not licenced for this purpose. It is unclear whether immunoglobulins improve outcomes when used as a treatment for established RSV infection in infants and young children admitted to hospital.  OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of immunoglobulins for the treatment of RSV-proven lower respiratory tract infections in children aged up to three years, admitted to hospital.  SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which contains the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science (from inception to 6 November 2018) with no restrictions. We searched two trial registries for ongoing trials (to 30 March 2018) and checked the reference lists of reviews and included articles for additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials comparing immunoglobulins with placebo in hospitalised infants and children aged up to three years with laboratory-diagnosed RSV lower respiratory tract infection. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected trials, assessed risk of bias, and extracted data. We assessed evidence quality using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: We included seven trials involving 486 infants and children aged up to three years. The immunoglobulin preparations used in these trials included anti-RSV immunoglobulin and the monoclonal antibody preparations palivizumab and motavizumab. We assessed the primary outcomes of mortality, length of hospital stay, and adverse events as providing low- or very low-certainty evidence due to risk of bias and imprecision. All trials were conducted at sites in high-income countries (USA, Chile, New Zealand, Australia), with two studies including a site in a middle-income country (Panama). Five of the seven studies were "supported" or "sponsored" by the trial drug manufacturers. We found no evidence of a difference between immunoglobulins and placebo for mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 to 5.27; 3 trials; 196 children; 4 deaths; 2 deaths amongst 98 children receiving immunoglobulins, and 2 deaths amongst 98 children receiving placebo. One additional death occurred in a fourth trial, however, the study group of the child was not known and the data were not included in the analysis; very low-certainty evidence), and length of hospitalisation (mean difference -0.70, 95% CI -1.83 to 0.42; 5 trials; 324 children; low-certainty evidence). There was no evidence of a difference between immunoglobulins and placebo in adverse events of any severity or seriousness (reported in five trials) or serious adverse events (four trials) (RR for any severity 1.18, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.78; 340 children; low-certainty evidence, and for serious adverse events 1.08, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.79; 238 children; low-certainty evidence).We found no evidence of a significant difference between immunoglobulins and placebo for any of our secondary outcomes. We identified one ongoing trial. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found insufficient evidence of a difference between immunoglobulins and placebo for any review outcomes. We assessed the evidence for the effects of immunoglobulins when used as a treatment for RSV lower respiratory tract infection in hospitalised infants and young children as of low or very low certainty due to risk of bias and imprecision. We are uncertain of the effects of immunoglobulins on these outcomes, and the true effect may be substantially different from the effects reported in this review. All trials were conducted in high-income countries, and data from populations in which the rate of death from RSV infection is higher are lacking.

Antibiotics for acute otitis media in children.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common diseases in early infancy and childhood. Antibiotic use for AOM varies from 56% in the Netherlands to 95% in the USA, Canada and Australia. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in The Cochrane Library in Issue 1, 1997 and previously updated in 1999, 2005, 2009 and 2013. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of antibiotics for children with AOM. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (2015, Issue 3), MEDLINE (1966 to April week 3, 2015), OLDMEDLINE (1958 to 1965), EMBASE (January 1990 to April 2015), Current Contents (1966 to April 2015), CINAHL (2008 to April 2015) and LILACS (2008 to April 2015). SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing 1) antimicrobial drugs with placebo and 2) immediate antibiotic treatment with expectant observation (including delayed antibiotic prescribing) in children with AOM. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: For the review of antibiotics against placebo, 13 RCTs (3401 children and 3938 AOM episodes) from high-income countries were eligible and had generally low risk of bias. The combined results of the trials revealed that by 24 hours from the start of treatment, 60% of the children had recovered whether or not they had placebo or antibiotics. Pain was not reduced by antibiotics at 24 hours (risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 1.01) but almost a third fewer had residual pain at two to three days (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.86; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 20). A quarter fewer had pain at four to seven days (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.91; NNTB 16) and two-thirds fewer had pain at 10 to 12 days (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.66; NNTB 7) compared with placebo. Antibiotics did reduce the number of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.90; NNTB 11), at six to eight weeks (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.00; NNTB 16) and the number of children with tympanic membrane perforations (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.76; NNTB 33) and halved contralateral otitis episodes (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.95; NNTB 11) compared with placebo. However, antibiotics neither reduced the number of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at three months (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.24) nor the number of children with late AOM recurrences (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.10) when compared with placebo. Severe complications were rare and did not differ between children treated with antibiotics and those treated with placebo. Adverse events (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) occurred more often in children taking antibiotics (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.59; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) 14). Funnel plots do not suggest publication bias. Individual patient data meta-analysis of a subset of included trials found antibiotics to be most beneficial in children aged less than two years with bilateral AOM, or with both AOM and otorrhoea.For the review of immediate antibiotics against expectant observation, five trials (1149 children) from high-income countries were eligible and had low to moderate risk of bias. Four trials (1007 children) reported outcome data that could be used for this review. From these trials, data from 959 children could be extracted for the meta-analysis of pain at three to seven days. No difference in pain was detectable at three to seven days (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.12). One trial (247 children) reported data on pain at 11 to 14 days. Immediate antibiotics were not associated with a reduction in the number of children with pain (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.10) compared with expectant observation. Additionally, no differences in the number of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at four weeks, tympanic membrane perforations and AOM recurrence were observed between groups. No serious complications occurred in either the antibiotic or the expectant observation group. Immediate antibiotics were associated with a substantial increased risk of vomiting, diarrhoea or rash compared with expectant observation (RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.36; NNTH 9).Results from an individual patient data meta-analysis including data from six high-quality trials (1643 children) that were also included as individual trials in our review showed that antibiotics seem to be most beneficial in children younger than two years of age with bilateral AOM (NNTB 4) and in children with both AOM and otorrhoea (NNTB 3). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review reveals that antibiotics have no early effect on pain, a slight effect on pain in the days following and only a modest effect on the number of children with tympanic perforations, contralateral otitis episodes and abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks and at six to eight weeks compared with placebo in children with AOM. In high-income countries, most cases of AOM spontaneously remit without complications. The benefits of antibiotics must be weighed against the possible harms: for every 14 children treated with antibiotics one child experienced an adverse event (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) that would not have occurred if antibiotics were withheld. Therefore clinical management should emphasise advice about adequate analgesia and the limited role for antibiotics. Antibiotics are most useful in children under two years of age with bilateral AOM, or with both AOM and otorrhoea. For most other children with mild disease in high-income countries, an expectant observational approach seems justified.

Accuracy of epidemiological inferences based on publicly available information: retrospective comparative analysis of line lists of human cases infected with influenza A(H7N9) in China.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate public health responses to infectious disease threats should be based on best-available evidence, which requires timely reliable data for appropriate analysis. During the early stages of epidemics, analysis of 'line lists' with detailed information on laboratory-confirmed cases can provide important insights into the epidemiology of a specific disease. The objective of the present study was to investigate the extent to which reliable epidemiologic inferences could be made from publicly-available epidemiologic data of human infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus. METHODS: We collated and compared six different line lists of laboratory-confirmed human cases of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in the 2013 outbreak in China, including the official line list constructed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention plus five other line lists by HealthMap, Virginia Tech, Bloomberg News, the University of Hong Kong and FluTrackers, based on publicly-available information. We characterized clinical severity and transmissibility of the outbreak, using line lists available at specific dates to estimate epidemiologic parameters, to replicate real-time inferences on the hospitalization fatality risk, and the impact of live poultry market closure. RESULTS: Demographic information was mostly complete (less than 10% missing for all variables) in different line lists, but there were more missing data on dates of hospitalization, discharge and health status (more than 10% missing for each variable). The estimated onset to hospitalization distributions were similar (median ranged from 4.6 to 5.6 days) for all line lists. Hospital fatality risk was consistently around 20% in the early phase of the epidemic for all line lists and approached the final estimate of 35% afterwards for the official line list only. Most of the line lists estimated >90% reduction in incidence rates after live poultry market closures in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that analysis of publicly-available data on H7N9 permitted reliable assessment of transmissibility and geographical dispersion, while assessment of clinical severity was less straightforward. Our results highlight the potential value in constructing a minimum dataset with standardized format and definition, and regular updates of patient status. Such an approach could be particularly useful for diseases that spread across multiple countries.

Evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions was assessed: a metaepidemiological study using the 'Fair Umpire' framework.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the strength of the evidence for, and the extent of, overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched for studies investigating overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions. Using the 'Fair Umpire' framework to assess the evidence that cases diagnosed by one diagnostic strategy but not by another may be overdiagnosed, two reviewers independently identified whether a Fair Umpire-a disease-specific clinical outcome, a test result or risk factor that can determine whether an additional case does or does not have disease-was present. Disease-specific clinical outcomes provide the strongest evidence for overdiagnosis, follow-up or concurrent tests provide weaker evidence, and risk factors provide only weak evidence. Studies without a Fair Umpire provide the weakest evidence of overdiagnosis. RESULTS: Of 132 studies, 47 (36%) did not include a Fair Umpire to adjudicate additional diagnoses. When present, the most common Umpire was a single test or risk factor (32% of studies), with disease-specific clinical outcome Umpires used in only 21% of studies. Estimates of overdiagnosis included 43-45% of screen-detected acute abdominal aneurysms, 54% of cases of acute kidney injury, and 77% of cases of oligohydramnios in pregnancy. CONCLUSION: Much of the current evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions is weak. Application of the framework can guide development of robust studies to detect and estimate overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions, ultimately informing evidence-based policies to reduce it.

The impact of telehealth care on escalation to emergency care: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We compared the impact of accessing healthcare (1) by telehealth (via telephone or video) vs face-to-face; and (2) by telephone vs video telehealth care, on escalation to emergency care. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL to 24 July 2023; and conducted a citation analysis on 19 September 2023. We included randomised controlled trials. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane Tool 2. We calculated risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes and standardised mean difference for continuous outcomes. RESULTS: Ten trials compared telehealth (five telephone, four video, one both) to face-to-face care. Six were overall low, three some concerns and one high risk of bias. There were no differences between telehealth and face-to-face for visits to the emergency department (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.29), hospitalisations up to 12 months (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.41), deaths or other adverse events. Costs of care were similar, as were patient satisfaction scores.Six trials compared telephone to video telehealth: three were overall low, two some concerns, and one high risk of bias. There were no differences between telephone and video for visits to the emergency department (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.12), hospitalisations (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.48), deaths, other adverse events, costs, or patient satisfaction. Healthcare provider satisfaction was high. CONCLUSIONS: Telehealth care - delivered by telephone or by video - may be an appropriate alternative to face-to-face provision of care, as it does not increase the likelihood of escalation of care to the emergency department for patients in primary care, hospital outpatients, post-discharge patients or residents in aged care.

Clinical trials and their impact on policy during COVID-19: a review.

Background: Of over 8,000 recorded randomised trials addressing COVID-19, around 80% were of treatments, and 17% have reported results. Approximately 1% were adaptive or platform trials, with 25 having results available, across 29 journal articles and 10 preprint articles. Methods: We conducted an extensive literature review to address four questions about COVID-19 trials, particularly the role and impact of platform/adaptive trials and lessons learned. Results: The key findings were: Q1. Social value in conducting trials and uptake into policy? COVID-19 drug treatments varied substantially and changed considerably, with drugs found effective in definitive clinical trials replacing unproven drugs. Dexamethasone has likely saved ½-2 million lives, and was cost effective across a range of countries and populations, whereas the cost effectiveness of remdesivir is uncertain. Published economic and health system impacts of COVID-19 treatments were infrequent. Q2. Issues with adaptive trial designs. Of the 77 platform trials registered, 6 major platform trials, with approximately 50 treatment arms, recruited ~135,000 participants with funding over $100 million. Q3. Models of good practice. Streamlined set-up processes such as flexible and fast-track funding, ethics, and governance approvals are vital. To facilitate recruitment, simple and streamlined research processes, and pre-existing research networks to coordinate trial planning, design, conduct and practice change are crucial to success. Q4. Potential conflicts to avoid? When treating patients through trials, balancing individual and collective rights and allocating scarce resources between healthcare and research are challenging. Tensions occur between commercial and non-commercial sectors, and academic and public health interests, such as publication and funding driven indicators and the public good. Conclusion: There is a need to (i) reduce small, repetitive, single centre trials, (ii) increase coordination to ensure robust research conducted for treatments, and (iii) a wider adoption of adaptive/platform trial designs to respond to fast-evolving evidence landscape.

Antibiotics for acute otitis media in children.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common diseases in early infancy and childhood. Antibiotic use for AOM varies from 56% in the Netherlands to 95% in the USA, Canada and Australia. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of antibiotics for children with AOM. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (2012, Issue 10), MEDLINE (1966 to October week 4, 2012), OLDMEDLINE (1958 to 1965), EMBASE (January 1990 to November 2012), Current Contents (1966 to November 2012), CINAHL (2008 to November 2012) and LILACS (2008 to November 2012). SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing 1) antimicrobial drugs with placebo and 2) immediate antibiotic treatment with expectant observation (including delayed antibiotic prescribing) in children with AOM. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: For the review of antibiotics against placebo, 12 RCTs (3317 children and 3854 AOM episodes) from high-income countries were eligible. However, one trial did not report patient-relevant outcomes, leaving 11 trials with generally low risk of bias. Pain was not reduced by antibiotics at 24 hours (risk ratio (RR) 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 1.01) but almost a third fewer had residual pain at two to three days (RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.86; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 20) and fewer had pain at four to seven days (RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.95; NNTB 20). When compared with placebo, antibiotics did not alter the number of abnormal tympanometry findings at either four to six weeks (RR 0.92; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.01) or at three months (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.76 to 1.24), or the number of AOM recurrences (RR 0.93; 95% CI 0.78 to 1.10). However, antibiotic treatment did lead to a statistically significant reduction of tympanic membrane perforations (RR 0.37; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.76; NNTB 33) and halved contralateral AOM episodes (RR 0.49; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.95; NNTB 11) as compared with placebo. Severe complications were rare and did not differ between children treated with antibiotics and those treated with placebo. Adverse events (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) occurred more often in children taking antibiotics (RR 1.34; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.55; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) 14). Funnel plots do not suggest publication bias. Individual patient data meta-analysis of a subset of included trials found antibiotics to be most beneficial in children aged less than two with bilateral AOM, or with both AOM and otorrhoea.For the review of immediate antibiotics against expectant observation, five trials (1149 children) were eligible. Four trials (1007 children) reported outcome data that could be used for this review. From these trials, data from 959 children could be extracted for the meta-analysis on pain at days three to seven. No difference in pain was detectable at three to seven days (RR 0.75; 95% CI 0.50 to 1.12). No serious complications occurred in either the antibiotic group or the expectant observation group. Additionally, no difference in tympanic membrane perforations and AOM recurrence was observed. Immediate antibiotic prescribing was associated with a substantial increased risk of vomiting, diarrhoea or rash as compared with expectant observation (RR 1.71; 95% CI 1.24 to 2.36). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic treatment led to a statistically significant reduction of children with AOM experiencing pain at two to seven days compared with placebo but since most children (82%) settle spontaneously, about 20 children must be treated to prevent one suffering from ear pain at two to seven days. Additionally, antibiotic treatment led to a statistically significant reduction of tympanic membrane perforations (NNTB 33) and contralateral AOM episodes (NNTB 11). These benefits must be weighed against the possible harms: for every 14 children treated with antibiotics, one child experienced an adverse event (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) that would not have occurred if antibiotics had been withheld. Antibiotics appear to be most useful in children under two years of age with bilateral AOM, or with both AOM and otorrhoea. For most other children with mild disease, an expectant observational approach seems justified. We have no trials in populations with higher risks of complications.

Nondrug interventions for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission are frequently incompletely reported.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the completeness of reporting of behavioral, environmental, social and system interventions (BESSI) for reducing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 evaluated in randomized trials, to obtain missing intervention details and to document the interventions assessed. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We assessed completeness of reporting in randomized trials of BESSI using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication (TIDieR) checklist. Investigators were contacted to provide missing intervention details and if provided, intervention descriptions were reassessed and documented according to the TIDieR items. RESULTS: Forty-five trials (planned or complete) describing 21 educational interventions, 15 protective measures, and nine social distancing interventions were included. In 30 trials with a protocol or study report, 30% (9/30) of interventions were completely described; this increased to 53% (16/30) after contacting 24 trial investigators (11 responded). Across all interventions, intervention provider training (35%) was the most frequently incompletely described checklist item, followed by the 'when and how much' intervention item. CONCLUSION: Incomplete reporting of BESSI is a substantial problem with essential information necessary for implementation of interventions and for building on existing knowledge frequently missing and unable to be obtained. Such reporting is an avoidable source of research waste.

Prioritising CVD prevention therapy - absolute risk versus individual risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that a high proportion of persons at high risk of cardiovascular disease in Australia are not receiving adequate disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid lowering therapy. However, it is not clear how a move to an absolute risk factor approach will affect the proportion of the population that is treated with blood pressure and lipid lowering therapy versus treatment based on individual risk factors. METHODS: We classified participants in the AusDiab follow up cohort study who had no previous history of cardiovascular disease and who were not taking blood pressure or lipid lowering medication currently according to the presence of individual risk factors versus combined absolute risk. RESULTS: Of the 3627 participants who were untreated, 429 (12%) had elevated blood pressure and 983 (27%) had dyslipidaemia, with 167 (5%) having both risk factors. 1245 participants (34%) would be treated using the individual risk factor approaches and 281 (8%) using the absolute risk approach based on the most clearly defined criteria of high risk. CONCLUSION: Moving to an absolute risk approach prioritises treatment to those most at risk, but ambiguities regarding what is meant by the absolute risk approach remain.

A novel methodological framework was described for detecting and quantifying overdiagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: Methods to quantify overdiagnosis of screen detected cancer have been developed, but methods for quantifying overdiagnosis of noncancer conditions (whether symptomatic or asymptomatic) have been lacking. We aimed to develop a methodological framework for quantifying overdiagnosis that may be used for asymptomatic or symptomatic conditions and used gestational diabetes mellitus as an example of how it may be applied. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We identify two earlier definitions for overdiagnosis, a narrower prognosis-based definition and a wider utility-based definition. Building on the central importance of the concepts of prognostic information and clinical utility of a diagnosis, we consider the following questions: within a target population, do people found to have a disease using one diagnostic strategy but found not to have the disease using another diagnostic strategy (so called 'additional diagnoses'), have an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes without treatment (prognosis evidence), and/or a decreased risk of adverse outcomes with treatment (utility evidence)? RESULTS: Using Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs and fair umpires, we illuminate the relationships between diagnostics strategies and the frequency of overdiagnosis. We then use the example of gestational diabetes mellitus to demonstrate how the Fair Umpire framework may be applied to estimate overdiagnosis. CONCLUSION: Our framework may be used to quantify overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions (and in cancer conditions) and to guide further studies on this topic.

Mapping genetic determinants of the cell-culture growth phenotype of enterovirus 71.

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a member of the species Human enterovirus A within the family Picornaviridae and is a major causative agent of epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease associated with severe neurological disease. Three EV71 genogroups, designated A, B and C, have been identified, with 75-84 % nucleotide sequence similarity between them. Two strains, EV71-26M (genogroup B) and EV71-6F (genogroup C), were found to have distinct cell-culture growth (26M, rapid; 6F, slow) and plaque-formation (26M, large; 6F, small) phenotypes. To identify the genome regions responsible for the growth phenotypes of the two strains, a series of chimeric viruses was constructed by exchanging the 5' untranslated region (UTR), P1 structural protein or P2/P3 non-structural protein gene regions plus the 3'UTR using infectious cDNA clones of both virus strains. Analysis of reciprocal virus chimeras revealed that the 5'UTRs of both strains were compatible, but not responsible for the observed phenotypes. Introduction of the EV71-6F P1 region into the EV71-26M clone resulted in a small-plaque and slow-growth phenotype similar to that of EV71-6F, whereas the reciprocal chimera displayed intermediate-growth and intermediate-sized plaque phenotypes. Introduction of the EV71-26M P2-P3-3'UTR regions into the EV71-6F clone resulted in a large-plaque and rapid-growth phenotype identical to that of strain EV71-26M, whereas the reciprocal chimera retained the background strain large-plaque phenotype. These results indicate that, although both the P1 and P2-P3-3'UTR genome regions influence the EV71 growth phenotype in cell culture, phenotype expression is dependent on specific genome-segment combinations and is not reciprocal.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of healthcare services: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the extent and nature of changes in utilisation of healthcare services during COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Systematic review. ELIGIBILITY: Eligible studies compared utilisation of services during COVID-19 pandemic to at least one comparable period in prior years. Services included visits, admissions, diagnostics and therapeutics. Studies were excluded if from single centres or studied only patients with COVID-19. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and preprints were searched, without language restrictions, until 10 August, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, health services and impact. DATA ANALYSIS: Risk of bias was assessed by adapting the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool, and a Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care tool. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics, graphical figures and narrative synthesis. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was change in service utilisation between prepandemic and pandemic periods. Secondary outcome was the change in proportions of users of healthcare services with milder or more severe illness (eg, triage scores). RESULTS: 3097 unique references were identified, and 81 studies across 20 countries included, reporting on >11 million services prepandemic and 6.9 million during pandemic. For the primary outcome, there were 143 estimates of changes, with a median 37% reduction in services overall (IQR -51% to -20%), comprising median reductions for visits of 42% (-53% to -32%), admissions 28% (-40% to -17%), diagnostics 31% (-53% to -24%) and for therapeutics 30% (-57% to -19%). Among 35 studies reporting secondary outcomes, there were 60 estimates, with 27 (45%) reporting larger reductions in utilisation among people with a milder spectrum of illness, and 33 (55%) reporting no difference. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare utilisation decreased by about a third during the pandemic, with considerable variation, and with greater reductions among people with less severe illness. While addressing unmet need remains a priority, studies of health impacts of reductions may help health systems reduce unnecessary care in the postpandemic recovery. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020203729.