Surveillance of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil: a space-time approach.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the epidemiological, spatial, and temporal pattern of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2020. METHODS: Ecological study using space-time analysis techniques. It included cases of TB-HIV coinfection registered in Brazil from 2001 to 2020. The temporal trend analysis was performed using segmented regression by Joinpoint regression. For spatial analysis, Moran indices were calculated and choropleth maps were produced using TerraView and QGIS software. RESULTS: A stable temporal trend was observed in the incidence rates of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil during the analyzed period. In addition, high-risk areas for coinfection located in states in the North, Southeast, South, and Midwest regions were identified. CONCLUSION: There was stability in the incidence of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil over the last 20 years and heterogeneous geographic distribution of risk areas for the condition.

A space-time analysis of mortality in older people living with HIV/AIDS in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality in older people living with the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This is an ecological study with temporal and spatial approaches to analyze mortality from HIV/AIDS in the older adult population in the 2010-2020 period in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Analysis of temporal trends was performed using the joinpoint regression, and spatial analysis was carried out using the Moran's index and the local empirical Bayesian model. RESULTS: We identified a total of 3,070 deaths from HIV/AIDS among older adults and a mortality rate of 51.71 per 100 thousand inhabitants during the study period. The joinpoint method showed a growing trend for the age groups from 70 to 79 years (annual percent change [APC]=3.45; p=0.01) and ≥80 years (APC=6.60; p=0.006) and stability for the general older adult population (APC=0.99; p=0.226). The spatial distribution of the crude mortality rate was diffuse throughout the state. After smoothing by the Bayesian estimator, we observed greater concentration in the eastern mesoregions. In Moran's analysis, we observed clusters of lower mortality rates in more central regions; and of higher rates in the southern and northern regions of the state. CONCLUSIONS: We found a major growing trend in mortality from HIV/AIDS in the age group of older adults over 69 years during the 2010-2020 period. Clusters of high mortality rates were located in regions further to the south and north of the state, where places of greater social inequalities are concentrated.

Spatial modeling of homicide mortality in the Northeast region of Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of homicide mortality and association with social determinants of health in the Northeast Region of Brazil. METHODS: Ecological study with spatiotemporal modeling of homicide deaths between 2000 and 2019. Temporal trends were analyzed by segmented linear regression. Crude mortality was calculated and adjusted by smoothing the local empirical Bayesian method and analyzed by the Global/Local Moran Index and spatiotemporal scan statistics. The association between social determinants of health and homicide mortality was performed using multiple linear regression and autoregressive spatial models. RESULTS: 353,089 deaths were recorded. Mortality increased from 2000 to 2019, with an annual increase of 4.37 in males and 3.57 in females. High risk spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the coastal region of the states. The spatial regression model showed an association with socioeconomic inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: High risk areas for homicides associated with socioeconomic inequality, which should be considered as a priority for designing and investing in public health policies were investigated.

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices towards the Prevention of Schistosomiasis Mansoni in an Endemic Area of Alagoas, Northeast Brazil.

We analyzed the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of schistosomiasis mansoni prevention in an endemic area of Brazil. This cross-sectional study was conducted between March and May 2021, with 412 participants living in the municipality of Feira Grande, Alagoas, Brazil. Data collection occurred through visits to the Health Center Urbano II and Massapê, through an interview with a structured questionnaire to identify the levels of KAP regarding schistosomiasis prevention. Of all respondents, 70.87% lived in rural areas, 22.66% reported a history of past schistosomiasis and 52.71% never participated in schistosomiasis control program actions. Factors associated with better KAP scores were being part of an older age group, not using rainwater and having no history of past schistosomiasis. Specifically, among the domains, attitude was the highest score and knowledge was the lowest. Participation in a health intervention program, knowing someone who had schistosomiasis and having been informed through a public health program seemed to have an important impact on the population's KAP. Our results contributed to broadening perceptions about schistosomiasis prevention, highlighting the positive impacts that health programs and interventions have on disease control.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the actions of the Schistosomiasis Control Program in an endemic area in Northeastern Brazil.

Schistosomiasis remains a serious public health concern in Brazil and the Schistosomiasis Control Program (PCE) was elaborated to assist in the control of the disease. Nevertheless, the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted the program. Herein, we assessed the impact of the pandemic on PCE actions in an endemic area in the region with the highest positivity rate for schistosomiasis in Brazil. We conducted an ecological, population-based study using data from the PCE of the state of Alagoas, between 2015 and 2021, to calculate the percentage of change. The temporal trend analysis was performed using the segmented log-linear regression model. To evaluate the spatial distribution of the data, choropleth maps were made showing the values of the% of change. Moran maps was elaborated to indicate the critical areas. Our analysis showed a decrease in the population surveyed in 2020 (-41.00%) and 2021 (-18.42%). Likewise, there was a reduction in the number of Kato-Katz tests performed (2020 = -43.45%; and in 2021 = -19.63%) and, consequently, a drop in the rate of positive tests (-37.98% in 2020 and -26.14% in 2021). Importantly, treatment of positive cases was lower than 80% (77.44% in 2020 and 77.38% in 2021). Additionally, spatial clusters with negative percentage values of up to -100% of the PCE indicators were identified mostly in the municipalities of the coastal areas that are historically most affected by schistosomiasis. Taken together, our analyzes corroborate that PCE actions in endemic municipalities of Alagoas were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Quality of basic health care and social vulnerability: a spatial analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between quality of basic health care and social vulnerability in municipalities of the Brazilian northeast. METHOD: Ecological study with spatial analysis using univariate global and local Moran's indexes. Bivariate analyses were employed to examine the relationship between the quality of basic health care and the Social Vulnerability Index in the Northeast. The dependent variable corresponded to the final scores of certifications of teams of basic health care in the Northeast that had participated in the third cycle of the Brazilian Program for the Improvement of Access and Quality of Basic Health Care. The independent variable was the Social Vulnerability Index of the municipality. RESULTS: The bivariate analysis has pointed out the presence of areas of low vulnerability with high quality basic health care in the municipalities in the states of Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, and Bahia. The state of Maranhão is emphasized for its low performance in basic health care in a large number of municipalities with high vulnerability. CONCLUSION: The study has revealed a spatial relation between the indicators of social vulnerability and quality of basic health care in the Northeast, suggesting that limitations in access to health resources and services may be related to social and health determinants.

Coronavirus disease and basic sanitation: too early to be worried?

INTRODUCTION: Considering that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been detected in feces, this study aimed to verify a possible relationship between basic sanitation indices and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) numbers/rates. METHODS: Data of COVID-19 cases registered in Brazil until May 28, 2020, and independent variables associated with basic sanitation were analyzed. RESULTS: A significant correlation between the number of cases and sewage treatment index/population density was observed. In addition, COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates were significantly associated with the total water service index and lethality rate was significantly associated with the sewage treatment index. CONCLUSIONS: Precarious basic sanitation infrastructure may potentially increase the SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Brazil.

[Tuberculosis among children and adolescents: an epidemiological and spatial analysis in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, 2001-2017]. / Tuberculose em crianças e adolescentes: uma análise epidemiológica e espacial no estado de Sergipe, Brasil, 2001-2017.

Tuberculosis continues to be of the most frequent diseases in the world and one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality. Data from the World Health Organization indicate that Brazil accounts for 75% of global cases involving children. The study aims to analyze the epidemiological and spatial pattern of tuberculosis in children and adolescents in the state of Sergipe during the period from 2001 to 2017. This is an ecological, temporal series study using secondary data. The categorical variables were summarized in simple and absolute frequency. In the spatial analysis the Bayesian method for rate smoothing and the Moran index were used to evaluate spatial autocorrelation. Trend analysis was performed using the Joinpoint regression model. The mean incidence rate was 5.9, with a predominance of 15 to 19 years of age (76.4%) and a steady trend, but with a positive annual variation in both sexes. Tuberculosis in children and adolescents has significant spatial dependence in the north and northeast regions. The knowledge of the epidemiological situation of tuberculosis over the years provides subsidies for the targeting of resources in risk areas and new strategies for prevention and control of the disease among children and adolescents.

A tuberculose continua como uma das doenças mais frequentes no mundo e uma das principais causas de morbimortalidade. Dados da Organização Mundial de Saúde indicam que o Brasil responde por 75% dos casos mundiais envolvendo crianças. O estudo objetiva analisar o padrão epidemiológico e espacial da tuberculose em crianças e adolescentes no estado de Sergipe durante o período de 2001 a 2017. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, de serie temporal, com uso de dados secundários. As variáveis categóricas foram sumarizadas em frequência simples e absoluta. Na análise espacial foi utilizado o método bayesiano para suavização de taxas e o índice de Moran para avaliar a autocorrelação espacial. A análise de tendência foi realizada por meio do modelo de regressão Joinpoint. Verificou que a taxa média de incidência foi de 5,9 com predomínio na faixa etária 15 a 19 anos (76,4%) e tendência estacionaria, porém com variação anual positiva em ambos os sexos. A tuberculose em crianças e adolescentes apresenta dependência espacial significante nas regiões norte e nordeste. O conhecimento da situação epidemiológica da tuberculose ao longo dos anos fornece subsídios para o direcionamento de recursos em áreas de risco e às novas estratégias de prevenção e controle da doença em crianças e adolescentes.

Quality of tuberculosis information systems after record linkage.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the quality of a tuberculosis notification information system after record linkage and spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis in a Brazilian state. METHOD: an ecological study carried between 2006 and 2016 in Sergipe, Brazil. A deterministic linkage was performed with Notifiable Diseases Information System and Mortality Information System, recording 7,873 cases and 483 deaths. The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was calculated. RESULTS: there was an increase among men (2.75%), > 60 years (6.29%), higher education (4.34%) and indigenous (4.76%). A total of 190 new cases (2.9%) was found. There was an increasing trend in tuberculosis incidence with a concentration of deaths in the metropolitan region. CONCLUSION: the quality of the information system showed fragility in identifying cases and deaths in Sergipe. Temporal distribution showed an increasing trend in tuberculosis incidence, and spatial distribution identified higher incidences in southeastern Brazil.

Spatial and temporal analysis of the human immunodeficiency virus in an area of social vulnerability in Northeast Brazil.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection still represents an important public health problem, because it involves clinical, epidemiological, social, economic and political issues. We analyzed the temporal and spatial pattern of the HIV incidence in an area of social inequality in northeast Brazil and its association with socioeconomic indicators. An ecological study was carried out with a focus on all HIV cases reported in Alagoas State, Northeast Brazil from 2007 to 2016 using its 102 municipalities as the units of our analysis. Data from the Brazilian information systems were used. Georeferenced data were analyzed using TerraView 4.2.2 software, QGis 2.18.2 and GeoDa 1.14.0. Time trend analyses were performed by the Joinpoint Regression software and the spatial analyses included the empirical Bayesian model and Moran autocorrelation. Spatial regression was used to determine the influence of space on HIV incidence rate and socioeconomic inequalities. There was an increasing trend of HIV rates, especially in the municipalities of the interior. Significant spatial correlations were observed with the formation of clusters with emphasis on the coast of the state and in tourist regions. Spatial regression explained 46% of the dependent variable. The HIV incidence rate was positively influenced by rate of primary health care units (P=0.00), and negatively by Gini index (P=0.00) and proportion of heads of household without or low education (P=0.02). We conclude that the relationship found between indicators of better socioeconomic conditions and HIV infection suggests unequal access to the diagnosis of infection. Prevention and control strategies can be established according to each epidemiological reality.

Spatiotemporal clusters of schistosomiasis mortality and association with social determinants of health in the Northeast region of Brazil (1980-2017).

The Northeast region of Brazil includes the states with the highest prevalence for schistosomiasis mansoni (SM). This study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of SM mortality and to analyze this association with social determinants in health. We conducted an ecological time series study (1980-2017), using spatial analysis tools. Time trend analysis was performed by joinpoint regression. Maps representing mortality rates for SM were constructed and Moran Index was calculated to analyze spatial autocorrelation. A total of 13,720 deaths from SM were reported in this period. The states of Pernambuco (PE) (50.62%) and Alagoas (AL) (22.09%) had the highest mortality percentages. The mortality rate decreased from 1.28 to 0.63 along the time. Although most states showed a stable trend, Sergipe (SE) and Bahia (BA) showed increasing trends in the latest years. Additionally, the spatial analysis showed the concentration of municipalities that presented high risk in the coastal region of the states of PE, AL, SE, and BA. Lastly, mortality rates were correlated with social and educational indicators and hospitalizations for diarrhea. Altogether, these results demonstrate that some states showed stable or increasing trends of SM mortality in the last period of the studied time interval.

Surveillance of the first cases of COVID-19 in Sergipe using a prospective spatiotemporal analysis: the spatial dispersion and its public health implications.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global public health emergency with lethality ranging from 1% to 5%. This study aimed to identify active high-risk transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Sergipe. METHODS: We performed a prospective space-time analysis using confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the first 7 weeks of the outbreak in Sergipe. RESULTS: The prospective space-time statistic detected "active" and emerging spatio-temporal clusters comprising six municipalities in the south-central region of the state. CONCLUSIONS: The Geographic Information System (GIS) associated with spatio-temporal scan statistics can provide timely support for surveillance and assist in decision-making.

Surveillance of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil: a space-time approach / Vigilância da coinfecção TB-HIV no Brasil: uma abordagem temporal e espacial

ABSTRACT Objective To identify the epidemiological, spatial, and temporal pattern of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2020. Methods: Ecological study using space-time analysis techniques. It included cases of TB-HIV coinfection registered in Brazil from 2001 to 2020. The temporal trend analysis was performed using segmented regression by Joinpoint regression. For spatial analysis, Moran indices were calculated and choropleth maps were produced using TerraView and QGIS software. Results: A stable temporal trend was observed in the incidence rates of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil during the analyzed period. In addition, high-risk areas for coinfection located in states in the North, Southeast, South, and Midwest regions were identified. Conclusion: There was stability in the incidence of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil over the last 20 years and heterogeneous geographic distribution of risk areas for the condition.

RESUMO Objective Identificar o padrão epidemiológico, espacial e temporal da coinfecção TB-HIV no Brasil durante o período de 2001 a 2020. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com técnicas de análise espacial e temporal. Incluiu os casos de coinfecção por TB-HIV registrados no Brasil entre 2001 e 2020. A análise de tendência temporal foi realizada por meio da regressão segmentada, através do Joinpoint regression. Para a análise espacial, foram calculados os índices de Moran e construídos mapas coropléticos através dos softwares TerraView e QGIS. Resultados: Observou-se tendência temporal estável das taxas de incidência da coinfecção por TB-HIV no Brasil durante o período analisado. Adicionalmente, foram identificadas áreas de alto risco para coinfecção localizadas em estados das regiões Norte, Sudeste, Sul e Centro-Peste. Conclusão: Houve estabilidade da incidência da coinfecção TB-HIV no Brasil nos últimos 20 anos e distribuição geográfica heterogênea das áreas de risco para o agravo.

Clinical and epidemiological indicators and spatial analysis of leprosy cases in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil: an ecological and time series study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyse the clinical and epidemiological indicators, temporal trends and the spatial distribution of leprosy in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil. DESIGN: Regional surveillance study of all reported cases. SETTING: State of Sergipe, endemic area of Northeast Brazil. METHODS: An ecological and time series study was conducted, based on secondary data reported by the Brazilian Information System on Notifiable Diseases for leprosy cases diagnosed in Sergipe state (2002-2015). The analysis of temporal trends was performed using the Joinpoint Regression Programme through Poisson regression. We performed spatial analysis by Kernel estimator and Moran index. RESULTS: The incidence rate was reduced from 6.29 to 3.78 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2002 and 2015, respectively. However, Sergipe was still classified as highly endemicity in 2015. The mean number of household contacts (HHC) examined was significantly lower than those registered. Clinical data indicated that 21.4% of the patients developed leprosy reactions, and 31.3% presented with some physical disability in the multibacillary groups. Patients diagnosed by examination within the HHC presented better indicators, such as lower percentage of leprosy reaction and physical disability. Spatial analysis showed the most risk areas distributed on the northeast and cities around the capital, Aracaju. CONCLUSION: The data indicate that there is a persistence of active Myobacterium leprae transmission and a delay in disease detection, following a pattern of high endemicity in many municipalities. The early detection by HHC examination is important to stop transmission and also to detect the cases in a less severe state.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of Chagas disease in an endemic area of Sergipe State, Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated clinical and epidemiological characteristics of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Sergipe. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we collected serum samples to identify serological markers of Chagas disease. A questionnaire was used, and electrocardiogram, echocardiogram, chest radiography, and contrast radiography of esophagus and colon were performed. RESULTS: T. cruzi infection seroprevalence was 12.1%, mean age of subjects was 55 years, 90% had an elementary school education, 78.6% were agriculture workers, and 60.5% had electrocardiographic abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of T. cruzi infection was observed in mostly elderly individuals.

Eventos adversos na atençãoprimária à saúde / Adverse events in primary health care / Eventos adversos en la atención primaria a la salud

Objetivo: Identificar na literatura os principais fatores contribuintes para ocorrência de Eventos Adversos na Atenção Primária à Saúde. Métodos: Trata-se de uma revisão integrativa. A partir da formação da questão norteadora, foi realizada uma pesquisa nas bases de dados: MEDLINE, PubMed, BDENF, SciELO e LILACS. Ao final, foram incluídos 15 artigos. Resultados: 7 dos artigos traziam fatores ligados a medicação como principal, 3 traziam prática e procedimentos, 2 organização e gestão, 1 comunicação e 2 outros fatores. Conclusão: Percebeu-se que erros relacionados a medicação e diagnóstico são os mais comuns nas instâncias de saúde. A falha na comunicação entre funcionários e entre os serviços de saúde, além de fatores organizacionais e diagnósticos tardios também foram apontadas, sendo boa parte, evitável. A subnotificação foi comumente relatada nos artigos, revelando que os dados existentes possam não estar condizentes com a realidade. (AU)

Objective: To identify in the literature the main contributing factors for the occurrence of Adverse Events in Primary Health Care. Methods: This is an integrative review. Based on the formation of the guiding question, a research was carried out in the databases: MEDLINE, PubMed, BDENF, SciELO and LILACS. At the end, 15 articles were included. Results: 7 of the articles included factors related to medication as main, 3 had practice and procedures, 2 organization and management, 1 communication and 2 other factors. Conclusion: Errors related to medication and diagnosis are the most common in health instances. The failure to communicate between employees and between health services, in addition to organizational factors and late diagnoses were also pointed out, being mostly avoidable. Underreporting was commonly reported in the articles, revealing that existing data may not be consistent with reality. (AU)

Objetivo: Identificar en la literatura los principales factores contribuyentes para la ocurrencia de Eventos Adversos en la Atención Primaria a la Salud. Métodos: Se trata de una revisión integrativa. A partir de la formación de la cuestión orientadora, se realizó una investigación en las bases de datos: MEDLINE, PubMed, BDENF, SciELO y LILACS. Al final, se incluyeron 15 artículos. Resultados: 7 de los artículos traían factores ligados à la medicación como principal, 3 traían práctica y procedimientos, 2 orgnización y gestión, 1 comunicación y 2 otros factores. Conclusión: Se dio cuenta que errores relacionados con la medicación y el diagnóstico son los más comunes en las instancias de salud. La falla en la comunicación entre funcionarios y entre los servicios de salud, además de factores organizacionales y diagnósticos tardío también fueron señalados, siendo buena parte, evitable. La subnotificación fue comúnmente relatada en los artículos, revelando que los datos existentes pueden no estar en concordancia con la realidad. (AU)

Distribuição espacial e frequência da leishmaniose visceral canina no nordeste brasileiro: uma revisão sistemática / Spatial distribution and frequency of canine visceral leishmaniasis in northeastern Brazil: a systematic review

Introdução:o Brasil está entre os sete países responsáveis por mais de 90% dos casos de leishmaniose visceral humana (LVH), sendo a região Nordeste a mais endêmica. ALV também afeta cães, que apresentam sintomas debilitantes e podem ser fatais. Os cães são os principais os pedeiros desse parasita. No entanto,há carência de dados epidemiológicos sobre leishmaniose visceral canina (LVC) no Brasil, principalmente na região nordeste. Objetivo:realizar uma revisão sistemática para demonstrar a frequência e a distribuição espacial da LVC nos estados do nordeste do Brasil. Métodos:as seguintes bases de dados foram utilizadas para busca eletrônica: Google Scholar, Lilacs, Scopus, Pubmed, Scielo, Web of Science, Cochrane, OpenGrey e OpenThesis. Os descritores de busca foram: leishmaniose visceral canina, nordeste do Brasil, Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte e Sergipe. Resultados:a análise dos 73 artigos selecionados demonstrou uma frequência de LVC de 4,1% no Nordeste do Brasil, entre 1973 a 2022. O estado da Bahia apresentou a frequência (43,9%) e o Piauí a menor (1,9%). Conclusão:os dados demonstram, pela primeira vez, o caráter endêmico da LVC em toda a região nordeste e o caráter propício de disseminação de LVC nessa região. Esses dados também destacam a necessidade de ações governamentais e aprofundamento das pesquisas por parte da comunidade científica

A space-time analysis of mortality in older people living with HIV/AIDS in the state of São Paulo, Brazil / Uma análise espaço temporal da mortalidade em pessoas idosas que vivem com HIV/AIDS no estado de São Paulo, Brasil

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality in older people living with the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: This is an ecological study with temporal and spatial approaches to analyze mortality from HIV/AIDS in the older adult population in the 2010-2020 period in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Analysis of temporal trends was performed using the joinpoint regression, and spatial analysis was carried out using the Moran's index and the local empirical Bayesian model. Results: We identified a total of 3,070 deaths from HIV/AIDS among older adults and a mortality rate of 51.71 per 100 thousand inhabitants during the study period. The joinpoint method showed a growing trend for the age groups from 70 to 79 years (annual percent change [APC]=3.45; p=0.01) and ≥80 years (APC=6.60; p=0.006) and stability for the general older adult population (APC=0.99; p=0.226). The spatial distribution of the crude mortality rate was diffuse throughout the state. After smoothing by the Bayesian estimator, we observed greater concentration in the eastern mesoregions. In Moran's analysis, we observed clusters of lower mortality rates in more central regions; and of higher rates in the southern and northern regions of the state. Conclusions: We found a major growing trend in mortality from HIV/AIDS in the age group of older adults over 69 years during the 2010-2020 period. Clusters of high mortality rates were located in regions further to the south and north of the state, where places of greater social inequalities are concentrated.

RESUMO Objetivo: O estudo tem como objetivo analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal da mortalidade em idosos que vivem com HIV/AIDS no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com abordagens temporal e espacial para análise da mortalidade por HIV/AIDS em pessoas idosas no período de 2010-2020 no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. A análise das tendências temporais foi realizada por meio da regressão joinpoint e as análises espaciais foram realizadas usando o índice de Moran e o modelo bayesiano empírico local. Resultados: Foram identificados 3.070 óbitos por HIV/AIDS entre pessoas idosas e taxa de mortalidade de 51,71 por 100 mil habitantes no período de estudo. O método joinpoint revelou tendência crescente para as faixas etárias de 70 a 79 anos (variação percentual anual — APC=3,45 p=0,01) e 80 anos ou mais (APC=6,60, p=0,006) e de estabilidade para a população idosa geral (APC=0,99, p=0,226). A distribuição espacial da taxa bruta de mortalidade demonstrou-se difusa em todo o estado. Após suavização pelo estimador bayesiano, observou-se maior concentração nas mesorregiões ao leste. Na análise de Moran, foram observados aglomerados das menores taxas de mortalidade em regiões mais centrais e das altas taxas em regiões mais ao sul e norte do estado. Conclusão: O grupo etário em que ocorreu maior tendência de crescimento da mortalidade por HIV/AIDS durante o período de 2010-2020 foi o de pessoas idosas com mais de 69 anos. Os aglomerados das altas taxas de mortalidade foram localizados em regiões mais ao sul e norte do estado, onde se concentram locais de maiores desigualdades sociais.

Spatial analysis and temporal trends of suicide mortality in Sergipe, Brazil, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization defines suicide as the act of deliberately killing oneself. It is the second leading cause of death among 15-29 year olds globally. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological profile and the spatial distribution of suicide deaths in the state of Sergipe. METHODS: We performed an ecological time-series study with data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade - SIM) about deaths by suicide occurring between 2000 and 2015. We considered as suicide deaths cases recorded as voluntary self-inflicted injuries. Suicide rates were estimated and age-adjusted in the population above 9 years. We analyzed temporal trends by sex and age groups using the simple linear regression model. For the spatial analysis, we performed Kernel density estimation with the software TerraView version 4.2.2. RESULTS: We identified 1,560 suicide cases in the state of Sergipe between 2000 and 2015, with a mean of 97.5 cases per year. We also observed that suicide rates in the state increased 102.3% (from 2.69/100,000 population in 2000 to 5.44 in 2015). Suicides occurred predominantly among males (1,160 cases; 74.35%), single people (1,010 cases; 64.7%), and brown-skinned people (1,039 cases; 66.6%). We observed significantly growing temporal trends in the general population, especially among male adults. Spatial analysis allowed us to draw a map that showed the regions with the highest occurrence of suicide. CONCLUSION: We observed growing suicide trends in the state of Sergipe and the spatial analysis was an important tool that showed the areas with higher incidences of suicide.

Spatial modeling of homicide mortality in the Northeast region of Brazil / Modelado espacial de la mortalidad por homicidios en la Región Noreste de Brasil / Modelagem espacial da mortalidade por homicídios na Região Nordeste do Brasil

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of homicide mortality and association with social determinants of health in the Northeast Region of Brazil. Methods: Ecological study with spatiotemporal modeling of homicide deaths between 2000 and 2019. Temporal trends were analyzed by segmented linear regression. Crude mortality was calculated and adjusted by smoothing the local empirical Bayesian method and analyzed by the Global/Local Moran Index and spatiotemporal scan statistics. The association between social determinants of health and homicide mortality was performed using multiple linear regression and autoregressive spatial models. Results: 353,089 deaths were recorded. Mortality increased from 2000 to 2019, with an annual increase of 4.37 in males and 3.57 in females. High risk spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the coastal region of the states. The spatial regression model showed an association with socioeconomic inequalities. Conclusions: High risk areas for homicides associated with socioeconomic inequality, which should be considered as a priority for designing and investing in public health policies were investigated.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Analizar distribución espaciotemporal de mortalidad por homicidios y relación con determinantes sociales de salud en el Noreste brasileño. Métodos: Estudio ecológico con modelado espaciotemporal de óbitos por homicidios entre 2000 y 2019. Las tendencias temporales fueron analizadas por regresión lineal segmentada. La mortalidad brutal fue calculada y acordada por moderación del método bayesiano empírico local y analizadas por Índice de Moran Global/Local y estadística de barrido espaciotemporal. La relación entre determinantes sociales de salud y mortalidad por homicidios fue realizada mediante la regresión lineal múltiple y modelos espaciales autorregresivos. Resultados: Fueron registrados 353.089 óbitos. La mortalidad aumentó de 2000 para 2019, con un incremento anual de 4,37 en el sexo masculino y 3,57 y en el femenino. Aglomeraciones espaciales y espaciotemporales de alto riesgo fueron identificadas en la región costera de los estados. El modelo de regresión espacial demostró relación con las desigualdades socioeconómicas. Conclusiones: Identificamos áreas de alto riesgo para homicídios relacionadas con la desigualdad socioeconómica, debiendo ser consideradas como prioridad para el delineamiento e inversión en políticas públicas en salud.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espaçotemporal da mortalidade por homicídios e associação com determinantes sociais da saúde na Região Nordeste do Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com modelagem espaço temporal dos óbitos por homicídios entre 2000 e 2019. As tendências temporais foram analisadas por regressão linear segmentada. A mortalidade bruta foi calculada e ajustada pela suavização do método bayesiano empírico local e analisadas pelo Índice de Moran Global/Local e estatística de varredura espaço temporal. A associação entre os determinantes sociais da saúde e a mortalidade por homicídios foi realizada por meio da regressão linear múltipla e modelos espaciais autorregressivos. Resultados: Foram registrados 353.089 óbitos. A mortalidade aumentou de 2000 para 2019, com um acréscimo anual de 4,37 no sexo masculino e 3,57 no feminino. Aglomerações espaciais e espaçotemporais de alto risco foram identificadas na região costeira dos estados. O modelo de regressão espacial demonstrou associação com as desigualdades socioeconômicas. Conclusões: Identificamos áreas de alto risco para homicídios associadas com a desigualdade socioeconômica, devendo ser consideradas como prioridade para o delineamento e investimento em políticas públicas em saúde.