Modelling the potential clinical and economic impact of universal immunisation with nirsevimab versus standard of practice for protecting all neonates and infants in their first respiratory syncytial virus season in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is associated with substantial morbidity among infants. This study modelled the potential public health and economic impact of nirsevimab, a long-acting monoclonal antibody, as an immunoprophylactic strategy for all infants in Spain in their first RSV season. METHODS: A static decision-analytic model of the Spanish birth cohort during its first RSV season was developed to estimate the impact of nirsevimab on RSV-related health events and costs versus the standard of practice (SoP). Spain-specific costs and epidemiological data were used as model inputs. Modelled outcomes included RSV-related outpatient visits, emerging room (ER) visits, hospitalisations - including pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and inpatient mortality. RESULTS: Under the current SoP, RSV caused 151,741 primary care visits, 38,798 ER visits, 12,889 hospitalisations, 1,412 PICU admissions, and 16 deaths over a single season, representing a cost of €71.8 million from a healthcare payer perspective. Universal immunisation of all infants with nirsevimab was expected to prevent 97,157 primary care visits (64.0% reduction), 24,789 ER visits (63.9%), 8,185 hospitalisations (63.5%), 869 PICU admissions (61.5%), and 9 inpatient deaths (52.6%), saving €47.8 million (62.4%) in healthcare costs. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that immunisation with nirsevimab of all infants experiencing their first RSV season in Spain is likely to prevent thousands of RSV-related health events and save considerable costs versus the current SoP.

Expected Impact of Universal Immunization With Nirsevimab Against RSV-Related Outcomes and Costs Among All US Infants in Their First RSV Season: A Static Model.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is associated with substantial morbidity in the United States, especially among infants. Nirsevimab, an investigational long-acting monoclonal antibody, was evaluated as an immunoprophylactic strategy for infants in their first RSV season and for its potential impact on RSV-associated, medically attended lower respiratory tract illness (RSV-MALRTI) and associated costs. METHODS: A static decision-analytic model of the US birth cohort during its first RSV season was developed to estimate nirsevimab's impact on RSV-related health events and costs; model inputs included US-specific costs and epidemiological data. Modelled RSV-related outcomes included primary care and emergency room visits, hospitalizations including intensive care unit admission and mechanical ventilations, and RSV-related mortality. RESULTS: Under current standard of care, RSV caused 529 915 RSV-MALRTIs and 47 281 hospitalizations annually, representing $1.2 billion (2021 US dollars [USD]) in costs. Universal immunization of all infants with nirsevimab is expected to reduce 290 174 RSV-MALRTI, 24 986 hospitalizations, and expenditures of $612 million 2021 USD. CONCLUSIONS: An all-infant immunization strategy with nirsevimab could substantially reduce the health and economic burden for US infants during their first RSV season. While this reduction is driven by term infants, all infants, including palivizumab-eligible and preterm infants, would benefit from this strategy.

Influenza burden averted with a cell-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine compared with egg-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Cell-based quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4c) avoid egg-adaptive mutations found in egg-based production, improving vaccine effectiveness (VE). Studies demonstrate improved VE for IIV4c relative to egg-based quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We built on a static compartmental model developed by the CDC to estimate the influenza burden in persons 0-64 years that would be additionally averted by vaccination with IIV4c vs. IIV4. Model inputs were based on published data from 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 Northern Hemisphere influenza seasons for the US. RESULTS: Over 3 influenza seasons, relative to IIV4, IIV4c would avert 31-39% more symptomatic cases, 29-40% more outpatient visits, 29-38% more hospitalizations and ICU admissions, and 34-49% more deaths vs. IIV4. In a deterministic sensitivity analysis, the main drivers were the relative VE of IIV4c vs. IIV4 in the 2017-2018 season and influenza burden estimates for the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the interquartile range of symptomatic cases was ± 13% of baseline in 2017-2018, ±8% in 2018-2019, and ± 7% in 2019-2020. CONCLUSIONS: IIV4c prevented significantly more symptomatic cases, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths than IIV4 in persons aged 0-64 years over 3 influenza seasons.

Disease Burden Associated with All Infants in Their First RSV Season in the UK: A Static Model of Universal Immunization with Nirsevimab Against RSV-Related Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) leads to significant morbidity in newborn infants in the United Kingdom (UK). Nirsevimab, a long-acting monoclonal antibody, received approval from the European Medicines Agency and has been licensed by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency for preventing RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) in neonates and infants during their first RSV season. The objective of this study was to assess the potential impact of nirsevimab on RSV-associated LRTDs, related costs, and loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in infants experiencing their first RSV season. METHODS: The impact of administering nirsevimab across all infant populations compared to palivizumab in the high-risk palivizumab-eligible population was assessed via a static decision-analytic model specified for a UK birth cohort experiencing their first RSV season. The RSV-related health events of interest included primary care (PC), accident and emergency (A&E) visits, hospitalizations [including hospitalizations alone and those resulting in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions], recurrent wheezing in infants who were previously hospitalized, and all-cause LRTD hospitalizations. RESULTS: Under the current standard of practice (SoP), RSV was estimated to result in 329,425 RSV LRTDs annually, including 24,381 hospitalizations and ICU admissions, representing £117.8 million (2024 GBP) in costs. Comparatively, universal immunization of all infants with nirsevimab could avoid 198,886 RSV LRTDs, including 16,657 hospitalizations and ICU admissions, resulting in savings of £77.2 million in RSV treatment costs. Considering the impact on all-cause LRTD of a universal immunization strategy, nirsevimab could be valued between £243 and £274, assuming willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY saved, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrated that the health and economic burden of RSV would be substantially reduced in all infants experiencing their first RSV season in the UK (including term, preterm, and palivizumab-eligible infants) as a result of a universal immunization strategy with nirsevimab.

Additional Burden Averted in the United States From Use of MF59-Adjuvanted Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Compared With Standard Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Among Adults ≥65 Years.

Background: The MF59-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV3) is designed to overcome immunosenescence and enhance vaccine responses in older adults. We expanded on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modeling method to estimate the number of additional influenza-related outcomes averted with aIIV3 versus generic quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) in adults ≥65 years over 3 influenza seasons (2017-2018 to 2019-2020) in the United States. Methods: A static compartmental model was developed based on an existing CDC model with 2 previously recommended calculation methods that increased the accuracy of the model in providing estimates of burden averted. Model inputs included vaccine effectiveness, vaccine coverage, population counts, and disease burden estimates. Additional burden averted (symptomatic cases, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions, and deaths) was expressed as total incremental cases averted between the vaccines. Sensitivity analyses tested the resilience of the model results to uncertainties in model inputs. Results: The model estimated that vaccination with aIIV3 versus IIV4 would avert 2.24 times as many symptomatic cases, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, ICU stays, and deaths during 2017-2018; the burden averted in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 with aIIV3 would be 3.44 and 1.72 times that averted with IIV4, respectively. Disease burden estimates and relative vaccine effectiveness of aIIV3 had the greatest impact on model estimates. Conclusions: Over 3 influenza seasons, the model estimated that aIIV3 was more effective than IIV4 in averting influenza-related outcomes, preventing 1.72 to 3.44 times as many influenza illnesses with proportionate decreases in related healthcare use and complications.

A Path to Improved Alzheimer's Care: Simulating Long-Term Health Outcomes of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer's Disease from the CLARITY AD Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD), a progressive neurodegenerative disease, is the main cause of dementia and one of the leading causes of death for elderly people in the USA. Lecanemab is a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils for the treatment of early AD [i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or mild AD dementia]. In a recent 18-month phase III trial, using a double-blind, placebo-controlled design, lecanemab treatment led to reduced brain amyloid burden and significant improvements in cognitive and functional abilities in individuals with early AD. METHODS: An evidence-based patient-level disease simulation model was updated to estimate the long-term health outcomes of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) compared to SoC alone in patients with early AD and evidence of brain amyloid burden, using recent phase III trial data and published literature. The disease progression is described by changes in the underlying biomarkers of AD, including measures of amyloid and tau, and their connection to the clinical presentation of the disease assessed through various patient-level scales of cognition and function. RESULTS: Lecanemab treatment was estimated to slow the progression of AD to moderate and severe stages and reduce the time spent in these more advanced states. In individuals with early AD, lecanemab plus SoC was associated with a gain of 0.71 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), a 2.95-year delay in mean time to progression to AD dementia, a reduction of 0.11 years in institutional care, and an additional 1.07 years in community care as shown in the base-case study. Improved health outcomes were demonstrated with lecanemab treatment when initiated earlier based on age, disease severity, or tau pathology, resulting in estimated gains in QALYs ranging from 0.77 to 1.09 years, compared to 0.4 years in the mild AD dementia subset, as shown by the model. CONCLUSION: The study findings demonstrate the potential clinical value of lecanemab for individuals with early AD by slowing down disease progression and prolonging time in earlier stages of disease, which significantly benefits not only patients and caregivers but also society overall. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT03887455.

Estimated Societal Value of Lecanemab in Patients with Early Alzheimer's Disease Using Simulation Modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder associated with memory, cognitive, and behavioral deficits, and brings significant economic burden on caregivers and healthcare systems. This study aims to estimate the long-term societal value of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone, corresponding to a range of willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds based on the phase III CLARITY AD trial readouts from both the US payer and societal perspectives. METHODS: An evidence-based model was developed to simulate the effects of lecanemab on disease progression in early AD using interconnected predictive equations based on longitudinal clinical and biomarker data derived from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The model was informed with the results of the phase III CLARITY AD trial and published literature. Key model outcomes included patient life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and total costs of both the direct and indirect costs of patients and caregivers over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Patients treated with lecanemab plus SoC gained an additional 0.62 years of life versus SoC alone (6.23 years vs. 5.61 years). The mean time on lecanemab was 3.91 years, and the treatment was associated with an increase in patient QALYs of 0.61 and an increase in total QALYs of 0.64 when both patient and caregiver utilities were considered. The model estimated that the annual value of lecanemab for the US payer perspective was US$18,709-35,678 ($19,710-37,351 for societal perspective) at the WTP threshold of $100,000-200,000 per QALY gained, respectively. Scenario analyses of patient subgroups, time horizon, input sources, treatment stopping rules, and treatment dosing were conducted to explore the impact of alternative assumptions on the model results. CONCLUSION: The economic study suggested that lecanemab plus SoC would improve health and humanistic (quality of life) outcomes and reduce economic burden for patients and caregivers in early AD.

Predicting the Societal Value of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer's Disease in Japan: A Patient-Level Simulation.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD), a neurodegenerative disorder that progresses from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, is responsible for significant burden on caregivers and healthcare systems. In this study, data from the large phase III CLARITY AD trial were used to estimate the societal value of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone against a range of willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds from a healthcare and societal perspective in Japan. METHODS: A disease simulation model was used to evaluate the impact of lecanemab on disease progression in early AD based on data from the phase III CLARITY AD trial and published literature. The model used a series of predictive risk equations based on clinical and biomarker data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and Assessment of Health Economics in Alzheimer's Disease II study. The model predicted key patient outcomes, including life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and total healthcare and informal costs of patients and caregivers. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, patients treated with lecanemab plus SoC gained an additional 0.73 LYs compared with SoC alone (8.50 years vs. 7.77 years). Lecanemab, with an average treatment duration of 3.68 years, was found to be associated with a 0.91 increase in patient QALYs and a total increase of 0.96 when accounting for caregiver utility. The estimated value of lecanemab varied according to the WTP thresholds (JPY 5-15 million per QALY gained) and the perspective employed. From the narrow healthcare payer's perspective, it ranged from JPY 1,331,305 to JPY 3,939,399. From the broader healthcare payer's perspective, it ranged from JPY 1,636,827 to JPY 4,249,702, while from the societal perspective, it ranged from JPY 1,938,740 to JPY 4,675,818. CONCLUSION: The use of lecanemab plus SoC would improve health and humanistic outcomes with reduced economic burden for patients and caregivers with early AD in Japan.

Cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib compared with infliximab, adalimumab, golimumab, vedolizumab and ustekinumab for the treatment of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: Tofacitinib is an oral, small molecule Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor for the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib versus other available treatments for patients with moderate to severe UC following an inadequate response to conventional treatment and who are either naïve to or have failed previous biologics in Germany. METHODS: A Markov cohort model was developed to evaluate the differences in long-term costs and outcomes between tofacitinib and its comparators from the perspective of German statutory health insurance (SHI) for patients either naïve or exposed to biologics. Tofacitinib was compared to infliximab, infliximab biosimilar, adalimumab, adalimumab biosimilar, golimumab, vedolizumab, ustekinumab, and conventional therapy. Health states modeled were remission, treatment response, active UC, and post-colectomy. Patients not responding to treatment could switch to a different treatment. Treatment efficacy for induction and maintenance phases were assessed by a systematic literature review (SLR) and network meta-analysis (NMA). The model included costs associated with drug administration, adverse events, and medical resource use. Extensive deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA and PSA) were conducted. RESULTS: Over a life-time horizon, patients treated with tofacitinib gained 0.035-0.083 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and had direct cost savings to the SHI of €4,228-€17,184 compared to biologic treatments other than adalimumab biosimilar. When compared to adalimumab biosimilar, treatment with tofacitinib resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €17,497 per QALY gained and can be considered a cost-effective alternative. Compared with conventional therapy, tofacitinib resulted in a lower ICER than all other biologics. The DSA showed that the model results were most influenced by differences in treatment efficacy. The PSA suggested confidence in the base-case results considering uncertainty around parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this economic model suggest tofacitinib is a cost-effective treatment option for patients with moderate to severe UC in Germany.

Soluble Polymer Pneumatic Networks and a Single-Pour System for Improved Accessibility and Durability of Soft Robotic Actuators.

Soft robotic devices can be used to demonstrate mechanics, robotics, and health care devices in classrooms. The complexity of soft robotic actuator fabrication has limited its classroom use. We propose a single-mold method of fabricating soluble insert actuators (SIAs) to simplify existing actuator fabrication methods using common accessible materials. This was accomplished by embedding molded soluble structures into curing polymer with custom molds and later dissolving the internal structure, leaving behind a hollow pneumatic network. Compared with similar actuators, SIAs actuated with comparable deformations while withstanding higher pressures for longer durations. SIAs have simple and accessible fabrication, resulting in durable actuators. We propose this method of actuator fabrication for use in K-12 schools to engage young students in this emerging field. In addition to silicone actuators, we show application of SIAs in biodegradable actuator fabrication, in a simplified model for classroom demonstration, and use in a glove designed to teach students the tactile art of ceramics.