Guidance for building a dedicated health facility to contain the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak.

Preparedness for the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its spread in India calls for setting up of adequately equipped and dedicated health facilities to manage sick patients while protecting healthcare workers and the environment. In the wake of other emerging dangerous pathogens in recent times, such as Ebola, Nipah and Zika, it is important that such facilities are kept ready during the inter-epidemic period for training of health professionals and for managing cases of multi-drug resistant and difficult-to-treat pathogens. While endemic potential of such critically ill patients is not yet known, the health system should have surge capacity for such critical care units and preferably each tertiary government hospital should have at least one such facility. This article describes elements of design of such unit (e.g., space, infection control, waste disposal, safety of healthcare workers, partners to be involved in design and plan) which can be adapted to the context of either a new construction or makeshift construction on top of an existing structure. In view of a potential epidemic of COVID-19, specific requirements to handle it are also given.

The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic: A review of the current evidence.

A novel coronavirus (nCoV) spillover event, with its epicenter in Wuhan, People's Republic of China, has emerged as a public health emergency of international concern. This began as an outbreak in December 2019, and till February 28, 2020, there have been 83,704 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) globally, with 2,859 deaths, resulting in an overall case fatality rate of 3.41 per cent (95% confidence interval 3.29-3.54%). By this time (February 28, 2020) 58 countries or territories and one international conveyance (Diamond Princess Cruise Ship) were affected. As a part of the global response to manage and contain the pandemic, major emphasis was placed on generating research intelligence to guide evidence-based responses to contain the virus, which was named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), owing to its genetic similarities with the SARS virus. This review summarizes the emerging evidence which can help guide the public health response, particularly in India. Key areas have been identified in which research needs to be conducted to generate critical intelligence for advising prevention and control efforts. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has once again exposed the weaknesses of global health systems preparedness, ability to respond to an infectious threat, the rapidity of transmission of infections across international borders and the ineffectiveness of knee-jerk policy responses to emerging/re-emerging infectious disease threats. The review concludes with the key learning points from the ongoing efforts to prevent and contain COVID-19 and identifies the need to invest in health systems, community-led response mechanisms and the need for preparedness and global health security.

Prudent public health intervention strategies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in India: A mathematical model-based approach.

Background & objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised urgent questions about containment and mitigation, particularly in countries where the virus has not yet established human-to-human transmission. The objectives of this study were to find out if it was possible to prevent, or delay, the local outbreaks of COVID-19 through restrictions on travel from abroad and if the virus has already established in-country transmission, to what extent would its impact be mitigated through quarantine of symptomatic patients? Methods: These questions were addressed in the context of India, using simple mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. While there remained important uncertainties in the natural history of COVID-19, using hypothetical epidemic curves, some key findings were illustrated that appeared insensitive to model assumptions, as well as highlighting critical data gaps. Results: It was assumed that symptomatic quarantine would identify and quarantine 50 per cent of symptomatic individuals within three days of developing symptoms. In an optimistic scenario of the basic reproduction number (R0) being 1.5, and asymptomatic infections lacking any infectiousness, such measures would reduce the cumulative incidence by 62 per cent. In the pessimistic scenario of R0=4, and asymptomatic infections being half as infectious as symptomatic, this projected impact falls to two per cent. Interpretation & conclusions: Port-of-entry-based entry screening of travellers with suggestive clinical features and from COVID-19-affected countries, would achieve modest delays in the introduction of the virus into the community. Acting alone, however, such measures would be insufficient to delay the outbreak by weeks or longer. Once the virus establishes transmission within the community, quarantine of symptomatics may have a meaningful impact on disease burden. Model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more is understood about the natural history of infection of this novel virus. As a public health measure, health system and community preparedness would be critical to control any impending spread of COVID-19 in the country.

National sero-surveillance to monitor the trend of SARS-CoV-2 infection transmission in India: Protocol for community-based surveillance.

Conducting population-based serosurveillance for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) will estimate and monitor the trend of infection in the adult general population, determine the socio-demographic risk factors and delineate the geographical spread of the infection. For this purpose, a serial cross-sectional survey would be conducted with a sample size of 24,000 distributed equally across four strata of districts categorized on the basis of the incidence of reported cases of COVID-19. Sixty districts will be included in the survey. Simultaneously, the survey will be done in 10 high-burden hotspot cities. ELISA-based antibody tests would be used. Data collection will be done using a mobile-based application. Prevalence from the group of districts in each of the four strata will be pooled to estimate the population prevalence of COVID-19 infection, and similarly for the hotspot cities, after adjusting for demographic characteristics and antibody test performance. The total number of reported cases in the districts and hotspot cities will be adjusted using this seroprevalence to estimate the expected number of infected individuals in the area. Such serosurveys repeated at regular intervals can also guide containment measures in respective areas. State-specific context of disease burden, priorities and resources should guide the use of multifarious surveillance options for the current COVID-19 epidemic.

Strategies for ending tuberculosis in the South-East Asian Region: A modelling approach.

Background & objectives: To support recent political commitments to end tuberculosis (TB) in the World Health Organization South-East Asian Region (SEAR), there is a need to understand by what measures, and with what investment, these goals could be reached. These questions were addressed by using mathematical models of TB transmission by doing the analysis on a country-by-country basis in SEAR. Methods: A dynamical model of TB transmission was developed, in consultation with each of the 11 countries in the SEAR. Three intervention scenarios were examined: (i) strengthening basic TB services (including private sector engagement), (ii) accelerating TB case-finding and notification, and (iii) deployment of a prognostic biomarker test by 2025, to guide mass preventive therapy of latent TB infection. Each scenario was built on the preceding ones, in successive combination. Results: Comprehensive improvements in basic TB services by 2020, in combination with accelerated case-finding to increase TB detection by at least two-fold by 2020, could lead to a reduction in TB incidence rates in SEAR by 67.3 per cent [95% credible intervals (CrI) 65.3-69.8] and TB deaths by 80.9 per cent (95% CrI 77.9-84.7) in 2035, relative to 2015. These interventions alone would require an additional investment of at least US$ 25 billion. However, their combined effect is insufficient to reach the end TB targets of 80 per cent by 2030 and 90 per cent by 2035. Model projections show how additionally, deployment of a biomarker test by 2025 could end TB in the region by 2035. Targeting specific risk groups, such as slum dwellers, could mitigate the coverage needed in the general population, to end TB in the Region. Interpretation & conclusions: While the scale-up of currently available strategies may play an important role in averting TB cases and deaths in the Region, there will ultimately be a need for novel, mass preventive measures, to meet the end TB goals. Achieving these impacts will require a substantial escalation in funding for TB control in the Region.

COVID-19 mortality in 1984 Bhopal gas tragedy survivors: implications for chemically exposed populations.

Leakage of methyl isocyanate from the Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, killed thousands and left deleterious trans-generational effects. Gas-exposed populations experience higher rates of lung and metabolic diseases, and immune dysregulation, all associated with adverse outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We used publicly available, official data from government sources to estimate COVID-19-associated crude mortality in populations with and without a history of gas exposure. Overall, there were 1240 deaths among patients hospitalized with known COVID-19 in Bhopal, of which 453 (36.53%) were in gas-exposed individuals, 726 (58.55%) were in gas-unexposed individuals and the exposure status of 61 (4.92%) individuals could not be determined. There were 351 and 375 deaths in gas-unexposed people in the first (April 2020-February 2021) and second (March 2021-July 2021) waves, respectively; in the gas-exposed population, there were 300 and 153 deaths in the two respective waves. The overall annualized crude mortality of COVID-19 was 3.84 (95% CI 3.41 to 4.33) times higher in the gas-exposed population at 83.6 (95% CI 76.1 to 91.7) per 100 000 compared with the gas-unexposed population, at 21.8 (95% CI 20.2 to 23.4) per 100,000. When stratified by age, compared with unexposed people, the gas-exposed individuals experienced 1.88 (95% CI 1.61 to 2.21) and 1.24 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.50) times the mortality rates in the age groups of 35-65 and >65 y, respectively. These findings indicate that gas-exposed individuals are likely to have a higher risk of severe COVID-19 and death and need to be specifically targeted and recognized for preventive and promotive efforts.

The burden of dengue and force of infection among children in Kerala, India; seroprevalence estimates from Government of Kerala-WHO Dengue study.

Background: Dengue shows high geographic heterogeneity within and across endemic countries. In the context of increasing burden and predicted outbreaks due to climate change, understanding the heterogeneity will enable us to develop region specific targeted interventions, including vaccination. World Health Organisation (WHO) suggests standard methodologies to study the burden and heterogeneity at national and subnational levels. Regional studies with robust and standard methodology to capture heterogeneity are scarce. We estimated the seroprevalence of dengue in children aged 9-12 years and the force of infection in Kerala, India, from where Zika cases also have been reported recently. Methods: We conducted a school-based cross-sectional survey in 38 clusters; selected by stratified random sampling, representing rural, urban, high burden and low-burden administrative units. Validation of Indirect IgG ELISA was done by Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT90) using the local isolates of all four serotypes. Force of infection (FOI) was estimated using the WHO-FOI calculator. We conducted a follow-up survey among a subsample of seronegative children, to estimate the rate of sero-conversion. Results: Among 5236 children tested, 1521 were positive for anti-dengue IgG antibody. The overall seroprevalence in the state was 29% (95% CI 24.1-33.9). The validity corrected seroprevalence was 30.9% in the overall sample, 46.9% in Thiruvananthapuram, 26.9% in Kozhikkode and 24.9% in Kollam. Age-specific seroprevalence increased with age; 25.7% at 9 years, 29.5% at 10 years, 30.9% at 11 years and 33.9% at 12 years. Seroprevalence varied widely across clusters (16.1%-71.4%). The estimated force of infection was 3.3/100 person-years and the seroconversion rate was 4.8/100 person-years. 90% of children who tested positive were not aware of dengue infection. All the four serotypes were identified in PRNT and 40% of positive samples had antibodies against multiple serotypes. Interpretation: The study validates the WHO methodology for dengue serosurveys and confirms its feasibility in a community setting. The overall seroprevalence in the 9-12 year age group is low to moderate in Kerala; there are regional variations; high burden and low burden clusters co-exist in the same districts. The actual burden of dengue exceeds the reported numbers. Heterogeneity in prevalence, the high proportion of inapparent dengue and the hyperendemic situation suggest the need for region-specific and targeted interventions, including vaccination. Funding: World Health Organization.

'Imperfect but useful': pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling.

Mathematical modelling has been a helpful resource for planning public health responses to COVID-19. However, there is a need to improve the accessibility of models built within country contexts in the Global South. Immediately following the overwhelming 'second wave' of COVID-19 in India, we developed a user-friendly, web-based modelling simulator in partnership with the public health experts and health administrators for subnational planning. The purpose was to help policy-makers and programme officials at the state and district levels, to construct model-based scenarios for a possible third wave. Here, we describe our experiences of developing and deploying the simulator and propose the following recommendations for future such initiatives: early preparation will be the key for pandemic management planning, including establishment of networks with potential simulator users. Ideally, this preparedness should be conducted during 'peace time', and coordinated by agencies such as WHO. Second, flexible modelling frameworks will be needed, to respond rapidly to future emergencies as the precise nature of any pandemic is impossible to predict. Modelling resources will, therefore, need to be rapidly adaptable to respond as soon as a novel pathogen emerges. Third, limitations of modelling must be communicated clearly and consistently to end users. Finally, systematic mechanisms are required for monitoring the use of models in decision making, which will help in providing modelling support to those local authorities who may benefit most from it. Overall, these lessons from India can be relevant for other countries in the South-Asian-Region, to incorporate modelling resources into their pandemic preparedness planning.

Recalibrating the notion of modelling for policymaking during pandemics.

COVID-19 disease models have aided policymakers in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) with many critical decisions. Many challenges remain surrounding their use, from inappropriate model selection and adoption, inadequate and untimely reporting of evidence, to the lack of iterative stakeholder engagement in policy formulation and deliberation. These issues can contribute to the misuse of models and hinder effective policy implementation. Without guidance on how to address such challenges, the true potential of such models may not be realised. The COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration (CMCC) was formed to address this gap. CMCC is a global collaboration between decision-makers from LMICs, modellers and researchers, and development partners. To understand the limitations of existing COVID-19 disease models (primarily from high income countries) and how they could be adequately support decision-making in LMICs, a desk review of modelling experience during the COVID-19 and past disease outbreaks, two online surveys, and regular online consultations were held among the collaborators. Three key recommendations from CMCC include: A 'fitness-for-purpose' flowchart, a tool that concurrently walks policymakers (or their advisors) and modellers through a model selection and development process. The flowchart is organised around the following: policy aims, modelling feasibility, model implementation, model reporting commitment. Holmdahl and Buckee (2020) A 'reporting standards trajectory', which includes three gradually increasing standard of reports, 'minimum', 'acceptable', and 'ideal', and seeks collaboration from funders, modellers, and decision-makers to enhance the quality of reports over time and accountability of researchers. Malla et al. (2018) A framework for "collaborative modelling for effective policy implementation and evaluation" which extends the definition of stakeholders to funders, ground-level implementers, public, and other researchers, and outlines how each can contribute to modelling. We advocate for standardisation of modelling processes and adoption of country-owned model through iterative stakeholder participation and discuss how they can enhance trust, accountability, and public ownership to decisions.

Radial Head Arthroplasty, Excision and Osteosynthesis in Complex Elbow Fracture-Dislocations in Young Adults: What is Preferred?

OBJECTIVE: Complex elbow fractures are common injuries in young adults. Results in recent studies with various operative treatment protocols are equivocal. We compared the results of radial head arthroplasty, excision with osteosynthesis in such injuries at two follow-ups 1 year apart. METHODS: Thirty-five patients of complex elbow fracture-dislocations including, posterior/anterior olecranon dislocation of elbow, terrible triad injury, anteromedial facet of coronoid fracture, Type IV Monteggia fracture-dislocation and unclassified elbow dislocation were enrolled. They were managed operatively by standardized protocol similar to McKee et al. radial head reconstruction with miniplates, lag screws or non-operative treatment for undisplaced fractures. Arthroplasty of radial head with cemented prosthesis + LCL repair with suture anchor/transosseous tunnel was done. Coronoid and olecranon fixation was always performed. Patients were evaluated as follows: Q-DASH score, MEPI, pain according to VAS, range of motion, complications and radiographic findings and fracture union, and elbow instability. RESULTS: The mean length of follow-up among the patients was 18 months. There were statistically significant differences between the DASH score/MEPS between radial head excision and replacement/reconstruction. Instability was significantly reduced in those with LCL reconstruction. Excising the comminuted radial head without replacement had the worst outcome. Best PROM was reported in patients with osteosynthesis. CONCLUSION: Provided a standard protocol is applied, radial head osteosynthesis has preferable outcomes in terms of patient-related outcomes as compared to arthroplasty, although not statistically significant. Radial head excision though has acceptable outcomes but there is a restriction of movements especially flexion-extension. Acceptable rate of complications major or minor warrants need of secondary surgical procedures or a staged treatment.

Ending TB in Southeast Asia: current resources are not enough.

The Southeast Asia Region continues to battle tuberculosis (TB) as one of its most severe health and development challenges. Unless there is a substantial increase in investments for TB prevention, diagnosis, care and treatment, there will be catastrophic effects for the region. The uncontrolled TB burden impacts socioeconomic development and increase of drug resistance in the region. Based on epidemiological inputs from a mathematical model, a costing analysis estimates that the desired targets of ending TB are achievable with additional interventions, and critical thresholds require an increase in spending by almost double the current levels. The data source for financial allocation to TB programmes is the report submitted by countries to WHO, while projections are based on modelling. The model accounts for funding needs for all strategies based on published data and accounts for programme and patient costs. This paper delineates the resource needs, availability and gaps of ending TB in the region. It is estimated that close to US$2 billion per year are needed in the region for TB-related activities for a meaningful bending of the incidence curve towards ending TB.

The epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus infection, sexually transmitted infections, and associated risk behaviors among men who have sex with men in the Mekong Subregion and China: implications for policy and programming.

BACKGROUND: Little systematic knowledge is available regarding risk behaviors and the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and sexually transmitted infections (STI) in populations of men having sex with men (MSM) in the Mekong Subregion and China. METHODS: Data on HIV/STI prevalence and risk behavior of MSM in the region were collected through Internet searches, were summarized and assessed for their policy and programming implications. RESULTS: Twenty-four articles, reports and abstracts of research studies were identified for review. High levels of HIV, STI and associated risk behavior were reported among MSM throughout the region. The HIV prevalence among MSM in urban areas varied between 5.5% and 28.3% in Thailand and Cambodia and between 0.0% and 9.4% in Vietnam and China. No HIV/STI prevalence data were available for Lao PDR and Myanmar. CONCLUSION: Levels of HIV/STI prevalence and risk behavior among MSM in the Mekong Subregion and China are high. Continued monitoring and surveillance and targeted preventive interventions are necessary to stop the spread of HIV in this vulnerable population.

HIV/AIDS in the South-East Asia region: progress and challenges.

The South-East Asia region, with 11 member states, has an estimated 3.5 million people living with HIV (PLHIV). More than 99% of PLHIV live in five countries where HIV prevalence among the population aged 15-49 remains low but is between 2% and 29% among key populations. Since 2010, the region has made progress to combat the epidemic. Mature condom programmes exist in most countries but opioid substitution therapy, and needle and syringe exchange programmes need to be scaled up. HIV testing is recommended nationwide in four countries and is prioritised in high prevalence areas or for key populations in the rest. In 2015, PLHIV aware of their HIV status ranged from 26% to 89%. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for all PLHIV in Thailand and Maldives while six countries recommend ART at CD4 cell counts <500 cells/mm3. In 2015, 1.4 million (39%) PLHIV were receiving ART compared to 670,000 (20%) in 2010. Coverage of HIV testing and treatment among HIV-positive pregnant women has also improved but remains low in all countries except Thailand, which has eliminated mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis. Between 2010 and 2015, AIDS-related deaths and new HIV infections have shown a declining trend in all the high-burden countries except Indonesia. But the region is far from achieving the 90-90-90 target by 2020 and the end of AIDS by 2030. The future HIV response requires that governments work in close collaboration with communities, address stigma and discrimination, and efficiently invest domestic resources in evidence-based HIV testing and treatment interventions for populations in locations that need them most.

A success story: identified gaps and the way forward for low HIV prevalence in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh remains a low prevalence country for HIV infection. In this article we attempt to address the reasons for the present success in this country and the challenges lying ahead to minimise the spread of HIV in the future.