Identification and Mapping Real-World Data Sources for Heart Failure, Acute Coronary Syndrome, and Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Transparent and robust real-world evidence sources are increasingly important for global health, including cardiovascular (CV) diseases. We aimed to identify global real-world data (RWD) sources for heart failure (HF), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of publications with RWD pertaining to HF, ACS, and AF (2010-2018), generating a list of unique data sources. Metadata were extracted based on the source type (e.g., electronic health records, genomics, and clinical data), study design, population size, clinical characteristics, follow-up duration, outcomes, and assessment of data availability for future studies and linkage. RESULTS: Overall, 11,889 publications were retrieved for HF, 10,729 for ACS, and 6,262 for AF. From these, 322 (HF), 287 (ACS), and 220 (AF) data sources were selected for detailed review. The majority of data sources had near complete data on demographic variables (HF: 94%, ACS: 99%, and AF: 100%) and considerable data on comorbidities (HF: 77%, ACS: 93%, and AF: 97%). The least reported data categories were drug codes (HF, ACS, and AF: 10%) and caregiver involvement (HF: 6%, ACS: 1%, and AF: 1%). Only a minority of data sources provided information on access to data for other researchers (11%) or whether data could be linked to other data sources to maximize clinical impact (20%). The list and metadata for the RWD sources are publicly available at www.escardio.org/bigdata. CONCLUSIONS: This review has created a comprehensive resource of CV data sources, providing new avenues to improve future real-world research and to achieve better patient outcomes.

Objectively measured physical activity, sedentary behaviour and all-cause mortality in older men: does volume of activity matter more than pattern of accumulation?

OBJECTIVES: To understand how device-measured sedentary behaviour and physical activity are related to all-cause mortality in older men, an age group with high levels of inactivity and sedentary behaviour. METHODS: Prospective population-based cohort study of men recruited from 24 UK General Practices in 1978-1980. In 2010-2012, 3137 surviving men were invited to a follow-up, 1655 (aged 71-92 years) agreed. Nurses measured height and weight, men completed health and demographic questionnaires and wore an ActiGraph GT3x accelerometer. All-cause mortality was collected through National Health Service central registers up to 1 June 2016. RESULTS: After median 5.0 years' follow-up, 194 deaths occurred in 1181 men without pre-existing cardiovascular disease. For each additional 30 min in sedentary behaviour, or light physical activity (LIPA), or 10 min in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), HRs for mortality were 1.17 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.25), 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.90) and 0.90 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.96), respectively. Adjustments for confounders did not meaningfully change estimates. Only LIPA remained significant on mutual adjustment for all intensities. The HR for accumulating 150 min MVPA/week in sporadic minutes (achieved by 66% of men) was 0.59 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.81) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.33 to 1.00) for accumulating 150 min MVPA/week in bouts lasting ≥10 min (achieved by 16% of men). Sedentary breaks were not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In older men, all activities (of light intensity upwards) were beneficial and accumulation of activity in bouts ≥10 min did not appear important beyond total volume of activity. Findings can inform physical activity guidelines for older adults.

Objectively measured physical activity and kidney function in older men; a cross-sectional population-based study.

Background: kidney function declines in older adults and physical activity levels are low. We investigated whether higher levels of physical activity and lower levels of sedentary behaviour were associated with lower odds of low kidney function in older men. Methods: cross-sectional study of 1,352 men from the British Regional Heart Study, mean (standard deviation) age 78.5 (4.6) year. Physical activity and sedentary behaviour were measured using Actigraph GT3X accelerometers. Kidney function was measured by estimated Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the chronic kidney disease-EPI creatinine-cystatin equation. Associations between physical (in)activity and kidney function were investigated using regression models. Results: higher levels of physical activity and lower levels of sedentary behaviour were associated with reduced odds ratios (ORs) for lower eGFR (<45 versus ≥45 ml/min per 1.73 m2) after adjustment for covariates. Each additional 1,000 steps, 30 min of light physical activity and 10 min of moderate/vigorous physical activity per day were associated with a lower odds (95% confidence interval (CI)) of a low eGFR; OR 0.81 (0.73, 0.91), OR 0.87 (0.78, 0.97) and OR 0.84 (0.76, 0.92), respectively. Each additional 30 min of sedentary behaviour per day was associated with a higher odds of a low eGFR (1.16 95% CI 1.06, 1.27). Associations between moderate/vigorous physical activity and lower kidney function persisted after adjustment for light physical activity or sedentary behaviour. Conclusion: physical activity is associated with kidney function in older men and could be of public health importance in this group who are at increased risk of poor kidney function and low physical activity. More evidence is needed on whether the association is causal.

Validity of questionnaire-based assessment of sedentary behaviour and physical activity in a population-based cohort of older men; comparisons with objectively measured physical activity data.

BACKGROUND: Older adults are the most inactive age group and self-reporting of activities may be complicated by age-related reductions in structured activities and misclassification or recall biases. We investigate the validity of simple questionnaires about sedentary behaviour (SB), (including the widely used proxy television (TV) viewing), and physical activity (PA) in comparison with objective measures. METHODS: Community dwelling men aged 71-93 years, from a UK population-based cohort wore a GT3X accelerometer over the right hip for 7 days and self-completed a questionnaire including information about SB (TV, reading, computer use and car use) and PA (leisure and sporting domains). RESULTS: 1566/3137 surviving men (mean age 79 years) attended. 1377 ambulatory men provided questionnaire and accelerometer data. Questionnaires under-estimated mean daily sedentary time; 317 minutes total SB (TV, computer use, reading or driving), 176 minutes (TV) vs 619 minutes (objectively measured). Correlations between objective measures and self-reports were 0.18 (total SB) and 0.17 (TV), both P < 0.001. Objective SB levels were similar across the lowest three quartiles of self-reported SB but raised in the highest quartile. Correlations between steps/day or moderate to vigorous PA with self-reported total PA were both 0.49, P < 0.001 and measured PA levels were progressively higher at higher levels of self-reported PA. CONCLUSIONS: Among older men, simple SB questions performed poorly for identifying total SB time, although simple PA questions were associated with a graded increase with objectively measured PA. Future studies of health effects of SB in older men would benefit from objective measures of SB.

Does duration of physical activity bouts matter for adiposity and metabolic syndrome? A cross-sectional study of older British men.

BACKGROUND: Older adults have low physical activity(PA) and high sedentary behaviour(SB) levels. We investigate how total volume and specific patterns of moderate to vigorous PA(MVPA), light PA(LPA) and SB are related to adiposity and metabolic syndrome (MS). Then, with reference to physical activity guidelines which encourage MVPA in bouts > =10 min and avoiding "long" sedentary bouts, we investigate whether accumulating PA and SB in bouts of different defined durations are differently associated with these outcomes. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of men (71-91 years) recruited in UK primary care centres. Nurses made physical measures (weight, height, bio-impedance, blood pressure) and took fasting blood samples. 1528/3137 (49%) surviving men had ≥3 valid days (≥600 min) accelerometer data. 450 men with pre-existing chronic disease were excluded. 1009/1078 (93.6%) had complete covariate data. RESULTS: Men (n = 1009, mean age 78.5(SD 4.7) years) spent 612(SD 83), 202(SD 64) and 42(SD 33) minutes in SB, LIPA and MVPA respectively. Each additional 30 min/day of SB and MVPA were associated with 0.32 (95% CI 0.23, 0.40)Kg/m(2) higher Body Mass Index (BMI) and -0.72(-0.93, -0.51) lower BMI Kg/m(2) respectively. Patterns for waist circumference (WC), fat mass index (FMI), fasting insulin and MS were similar. MVPA in bouts lasting <10 min or ≥10 min duration were not associated differently with outcomes. In models adjusted for total MVPA, each minute accumulated in SB bouts lasting 1-15 min was associated with lower BMI -0.012 kg/m(2), WC -0.029 cm, and OR 0.989 for MS (all p < 0.05), and coefficients for LPA bouts 1-9 min were very similar in separate models adjusted for total MVPA. Minutes accumulated in SB bouts 1-15 min and LPA bouts 1-9 min were correlated, r = 0.62. CONCLUSIONS: Objectively measured MVPA, LPA and SB were all associated with lower adiposity and metabolic risk. The beneficial associations of LPA are encouraging for older adults for whom initiating MVPA and maintaining bouts lasting ≥10 min may be particularly challenging. Findings that short bouts of LPA (1-9 min) and SB (1-15 min), but that all MVPA, not just MVPA accumulated in bouts ≥10 min were associated with lower adiposity and better metabolic health could help refine older adult PA guidelines.

Cross-sectional associations of objectively measured physical activity and sedentary time with sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity in older men.

This study investigated associations between objectively measured physical activity (PA) with sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity in older British men. Participants were men aged 70-92years (n=1286) recruited from UK Primary Care Centres. Outcomes included (i) sarcopenia, defined as low muscle mass (lowest two fifths of the mid-upper arm muscle circumference distribution) accompanied by low muscular strength (hand grip strength <30kg) or low physical performance (gait speed≤0.8m/s); (ii) severe sarcopenia, required all three conditions; (iii) sarcopenic obesity defined as sarcopenia or severe sarcopenia and a waist circumference of >102cm. Independent variables included time spent in PA intensities measured by GT3x accelerometers, worn during one week in 2010-12. Multinomial regression models were used for cross-sectional analyses relating PA and sarcopenia. In total, 14.2% (n=183) of men had sarcopenia and a further 5.4% (n=70) had severe sarcopenia. 25.3% of sarcopenic or severely sarcopenic men were obese. Each extra 30min per day of moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) was associated with a reduced risk of severe sarcopenia (relative risk [RR] 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30, 0.93) and sarcopenic obesity (RR 0.47 [95% CI 0.27, 0.84]). Light PA (LPA) and sedentary breaks were marginally associated with a reduced risk of sarcopenic obesity. Sedentary time was marginally associated with an increased risk of sarcopenic obesity independent of MVPA (RR 1.18 [95% CI 0.99, 1.40]). MVPA may reduce the risk of severe sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity among older men. Reducing sedentary time and increasing LPA and sedentary breaks may also protect against sarcopenic obesity.

Objectively measured physical activity, sedentary time and subclinical vascular disease: Cross-sectional study in older British men.

Low physical activity (PA) and high levels of sedentary time (ST) are associated with higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among older people. However, their independent contribution and importance of duration of PA and ST bouts remain unclear. We investigated associations between objectively measured PA, ST and non-invasive vascular measures, markers of CVD risk. Cross-sectional study of 1216 men from the British Regional Heart Study, mean age 78.5years, measured in 2010-2012. Carotid intima thickness (CIMT), distensibility coefficient (DC) and plaque presence were measured using ultrasound; pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) and augmentation index (AIx) using a Vicorder. PA and ST were measured using hip-worn ActiGraph GT3X accelerometers. After adjusting for covariates, each additional 1000 steps per day was associated with a 0.038m/s lower cfPWV (95% CI=-0.076, 0.0003), 0.095 10(-3) kPa(-1) higher DC (95% CI=0.006, 0.185), 0.26% lower AIx (95% CI=-0.40, -0.12) and a 0.005mm lower CIMT (95% CI=-0.008, -0.001). Moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA) was associated with lower AIx and CIMT, light PA (LPA) with lower cfPWV and CIMT and ST with higher cfPWV, AIx and CIMT and lower DC. LPA and ST were highly correlated (r=-0.62). The independence of MVPA and ST or MVPA and LPA was inconsistent across vascular measures. Bout lengths for both PA and ST were not associated with vascular measures. In our cross-sectional study of older men, all PA regardless of intensity or bout duration was beneficially associated with vascular measures, as was lower ST. LPA was particularly relevant for cfPWV and CIMT.

Diurnal patterns of objectively measured physical activity and sedentary behaviour in older men.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) levels among older adults are generally low and sedentary behaviour (SB) very common; increasing PA and reducing SB levels could have appreciable health benefits. Quantifying PA and SB patterns through the day could help in defining strategies for change. We examined within day variations in PA and SB and whether these varied by demographic factors and health status. METHODS: Men aged 71-91 years participating in an established UK population-based cohort study were invited to wear a GT3x Actigraph accelerometer over the hip for one week in 2010-12. Percentages of time spent in sedentary (SB, <100 counts per minute [CPM]); in light (LIPA, 100-1040 CPM) and in moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA, >1040 CPM) were derived. Multilevel models were used to estimate the associations between demographic factors and health status and SB, LIPA and MVPA. RESULTS: 1455 of 3137 men invited (46.4 %) participated and provided adequate data. Men spent 73 % of the day in SB, 23 % in LIPA and 4.5 % in MVPA (619, 197 and 39 min per day respectively). The percentage of time spent in MVPA was highest in the morning, peaking at 10-11 am (8.4 %), and then declining until the evening, with the exception of a small increase at 2-3 pm. LIPA followed a similar pattern. Conversely, SB levels were lowest in the morning and increased throughout the day, peaking at 9 pm (88 %). Men who were older, did not use active transport, had mobility limitations, were obese, depressed, had more chronic health conditions, and were smokers had lower levels of MVPA. The impacts of older age, obesity, mobility limitations and chronic diseases on LIPA, MVPA and SB were more marked in the morning than in the afternoon and evening. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of MVPA and LIPA are highest in the morning (peak at 10-11 am) and decrease during the day. SB increases through the course of the day to peak in the evening. Interventions to encourage older men to be physically active may need to take account of current PA patterns, aiming to prolong active morning bouts of PA and/or reducing SB in the afternoon and evening hours.

Duration and breaks in sedentary behaviour: accelerometer data from 1566 community-dwelling older men (British Regional Heart Study).

BACKGROUND: Sedentary behaviours are increasingly recognised as raising the risk of cardiovascular disease events, diabetes and mortality, independently of physical activity levels. However, little is known about patterns of sedentary behaviour in older adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 1566/3137 (50% response) men aged 71-91 years from a UK population-based cohort study. Men wore a GT3x accelerometer over the hip for 1 week in 2010-2011. Mean daily minutes of sedentary behaviours, percentage of day in sedentary behaviours, sedentary bouts and breaks were calculated and summarised by health and demographic characteristics. RESULTS: 1403 ambulatory men aged 78.4 years (SD=4.6 years) with ≥ 600 min of accelerometer wear on ≥ 3 days had complete data on covariables. Men spent on average 618 min (SD=83), or 72% of their day in sedentary behaviours (<100 counts/min). On average, men accumulated 72 spells of sedentary behaviours per day, with 7 breaks in each sedentary hour. Men had on average 5.1 sedentary bouts of ≥ 30 min, which accounted for 43% of sedentary time, and 1.4 bouts of ≥ 60 min, which accounted for 19% of daily sedentary time. Men who were over 80 years old, obese, depressed and had multiple chronic conditions accumulated more sedentary time and spent more time in longer sedentary bouts. CONCLUSIONS: Older men spend nearly three quarters of their day in sedentary behaviours, mostly accumulated in short bouts, although bouts lasting ≥ 30 min accounted for nearly half of the sedentary time each day. Men with medical risk factors were more likely to also display sedentary behaviour.

How are falls and fear of falling associated with objectively measured physical activity in a cohort of community-dwelling older men?

BACKGROUND: Falls affect approximately one third of community-dwelling older adults each year and have serious health and social consequences. Fear of falling (FOF) (lack of confidence in maintaining balance during normal activities) affects many older adults, irrespective of whether they have actually experienced falls. Both falls and fear of falls may result in restrictions of physical activity, which in turn have health consequences. To date the relation between (i) falls and (ii) fear of falling with physical activity have not been investigated using objectively measured activity data which permits examination of different intensities of activity and sedentary behaviour. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 1680 men aged 71-92 years recruited from primary care practices who were part of an on-going population-based cohort. Men reported falls history in previous 12 months, FOF, health status and demographic characteristics. Men wore a GT3x accelerometer over the hip for 7 days. RESULTS: Among the 12% of men who had recurrent falls, daily activity levels were lower than among non-fallers; 942 (95% CI 503, 1381) fewer steps/day, 12(95% CI 2, 22) minutes less in light activity, 10(95% CI 5, 15) minutes less in moderate to vigorous PA [MVPA] and 22(95% CI 9, 35) minutes more in sedentary behaviour. 16% (n = 254) of men reported FOF, of whom 52% (n = 133) had fallen in the past year. Physical activity deficits were even greater in the men who reported that they were fearful of falling than in men who had fallen. Men who were fearful of falling took 1766(95% CI 1391, 2142) fewer steps/day than men who were not fearful, and spent 27(95% CI 18, 36) minutes less in light PA, 18(95% CI 13, 22) minutes less in MVPA, and 45(95% CI 34, 56) minutes more in sedentary behaviour. The significant differences in activity levels between (i) fallers and non-fallers and (ii) men who were fearful of falling or not fearful, were mediated by similar variables; lower exercise self-efficacy, fewer excursions from home and more mobility difficulties. CONCLUSIONS: Falls and in particular fear of falling are important barriers to older people gaining health benefits of walking and MVPA. Future studies should assess the longitudinal associations between falls and physical activity.

Adherence to physical activity guidelines in older adults, using objectively measured physical activity in a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) levels in older adults decline with age. The prevalence and correlates of adherence to current UK PA guidelines in older adults has not been studied using objectively measured PA, which can examine precisely whether PA is carried out in bouts of specified length and intensity. METHODS: Free living men and women aged 70-93 years from 25 towns in the United Kingdom, participating in parallel on-going population based cohort studies were invited (by post) to wear a GT3x accelerometer over the hip for one week in 2010-12. Adherence to UK PA guidelines was defined as ≥150 minutes/week of moderate or vigorous PA (MVPA) in bouts of ≥10 minutes; the effect of different intensities and durations were examined. RESULTS: 1593 men and 857 women participated (responses 51% and 29% respectively). 15% men and 10% women achieved ≥150 minutes/week of MVPA (defined as >1040 cpm) in bouts lasting ≥10 minutes. With MVPA defined as >1952 cpm, prevalences were 7% and 3% respectively. Those adhering to guidelines were younger, had fewer chronic health conditions, less depression, less severe mobility limitations, but higher exercise self-efficacy and exercise outcomes expectations. They rated their local environment more highly for social activities and leisure facilities, having somewhere nice to go for a walk and feeling safe after dark, They left the house on more days per week, were more likely to use active transport (cycle or walk) and to walk a dog regularly. CONCLUSIONS: Few older adults attain current PA guidelines. Health promotion to extend the duration of moderate-intensity activity episodes to 10 minutes or more could yield important health gains among older adults. However future studies will need to clarify whether attaining guideline amounts of PA in spells lasting 10 minutes or more is critical for reducing chronic disease risks as well as improving cardiometabolic risk factors.

Maternal prepregnancy obesity is an independent risk factor for frequent wheezing in infants by age 14 months.

BACKGROUND: Maternal prepregnancy obesity has been linked to the offspring's risk for subsequent asthma. We determined whether maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of wheezing phenotypes early in life. METHODS: We used data on 1107 mother-child pairs from two birth cohorts from the INMA-INfancia y Medio Ambiente project. Maternal height was measured and prepregnancy weight self-reported at enrolment (on average at 13.7 ± 2 weeks of gestation). Maternal prepregnancy body mass index was categorised as underweight, normal, overweight and obese according to WHO recommendations. Information on child's wheezing was obtained through questionnaires up to the age of 14 (± 1) months. Wheezing was classified as infrequent (<4 reported wheezing episodes) or frequent (≥ 4 episodes). Weight and length of infants were measured by trained study staff at 14.6 (± 1) months of age and weight-for-length z-scores computed. RESULTS: Although maternal obesity did not increase the risk of the child to have any or infrequent wheezing, children of obese mothers were more likely to have frequent wheezing than children of normal-weight mothers (11.8% vs. 3.8%; P = 0.002). In fully adjusted multinomial logistic regression models, including infants' weight-for-length z-scores and other covariates, maternal prepregnancy obesity was associated with increased risk of frequent [adjusted relative risk (RR) 4.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.55, 11.3] but not infrequent (RR 1.05 [95% CI 0.55, 2.01]) wheezing in their children. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal prepregnancy obesity is independently associated with an increased risk of frequent wheezing in the infant by the age of 14 months. These findings add evidence on the potential effects of in utero exposures on asthma-related phenotypes.

Smartphone detection of atrial fibrillation using photoplethysmography: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Timely diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) is essential to reduce complications from this increasingly common condition. We sought to assess the diagnostic accuracy of smartphone camera photoplethysmography (PPG) compared with conventional electrocardiogram (ECG) for AF detection. METHODS: This is a systematic review of MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane (1980-December 2020), including any study or abstract, where smartphone PPG was compared with a reference ECG (1, 3 or 12-lead). Random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool sensitivity/specificity and identify publication bias, with study quality assessed using the QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2) risk of bias tool. RESULTS: 28 studies were included (10 full-text publications and 18 abstracts), providing 31 comparisons of smartphone PPG versus ECG for AF detection. 11 404 participants were included (2950 in AF), with most studies being small and based in secondary care. Sensitivity and specificity for AF detection were high, ranging from 81% to 100%, and from 85% to 100%, respectively. 20 comparisons from 17 studies were meta-analysed, including 6891 participants (2299 with AF); the pooled sensitivity was 94% (95% CI 92% to 95%) and specificity 97% (96%-98%), with substantial heterogeneity (p<0.01). Studies were of poor quality overall and none met all the QUADAS-2 criteria, with particular issues regarding selection bias and the potential for publication bias. CONCLUSION: PPG provides a non-invasive, patient-led screening tool for AF. However, current evidence is limited to small, biased, low-quality studies with unrealistically high sensitivity and specificity. Further studies are needed, preferably independent from manufacturers, in order to advise clinicians on the true value of PPG technology for AF detection.

Heat waves and cause-specific mortality at all ages.

BACKGROUND: Mortality has been shown to increase with extremely hot ambient temperatures. Details on the specific cause of mortality can be useful for improving preventive policies. Infants are often identified as a population that is vulnerable to extreme heat conditions; however, information on heat and infant mortality is scarce, with no studies reporting on cause-specific mortality. METHODS: The study includes all deaths in the Catalonia region of Spain during the warm seasons of 1983-2006 (503,389 deaths). We used the case-crossover design to evaluate the association between the occurrence of extremely hot days (days with maximum temperature above the 95th percentile) and mortality. Total mortality and infant mortality were stratified into 66 and 8 causes of death, respectively. RESULTS: Three consecutive hot days increased total daily mortality by 19%. We calculated that 1.6% of all deaths were attributable to heat. About 40% of attributable deaths did not occur during heat-wave periods. The causes of death that were increased included cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, mental and nervous system disorders, infectious and digestive system diseases, diabetes, and some external causes such as suicide. In infants, the effect of heat was observed on the same day and was detected only for conditions originating in the perinatal period (relative risk = 1.53 [95% confidence interval = 1.16-2.02]). Within the perinatal causes, cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive system, and hemorrhagic and hematologic disorders were the causes of death with stronger effects. CONCLUSIONS: Heat contributes to an increase in mortality from several causes. In infants, the first week of life is the most critical window of vulnerability.

Saharan dust and daily mortality in Emilia-Romagna (Italy).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between Saharan dust outbreaks and natural, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. METHODS: A case-crossover design was adopted to assess the effects of Saharan dust days (SDD) on mortality in the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy. The population under study consisted of residents in the six main towns of the central-western part of the region who died between August 2002 and December 2006. The association of Saharan dust outbreaks and PM(10) concentration with mortality was estimated using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for apparent temperature, holidays, summer population decrease, flu epidemic weeks and heat wave days. The role of the interaction term between PM(10) and SDD was analysed to test for effect modification induced by SDD on the PM(10)-mortality concentration-response function. Separate estimates were undertaken for hot and cold seasons. RESULTS: We found some evidence of increased respiratory mortality for people aged 75 or older on SDD. Respiratory mortality increased by 22.0% (95% CI 4.0% to 43.1%) on the SDD in the whole year model and by 33.9% (8.4% to 65.4%) in the hot season model. Effects substantially attenuated for natural and cardiovascular mortality with ORs of 1.042 (95% CI 0.992 to 1.095) and 1.043 (95% CI 0.969 to 1.122), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest an association between respiratory mortality in the elderly and Saharan dust outbreaks. We found no evidence of an effect modification of dust events on the concentration-response relationship between PM(10) and daily deaths. Further work should be carried out to clarify the mechanism of action.

Introducing PIONEER: a project to harness big data in prostate cancer research.

Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment Enhancement Through the Power of Big Data in Europe (PIONEER) is a European network of excellence for big data in prostate cancer, consisting of 32 private and public stakeholders from 9 countries across Europe. Launched by the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 and part of the Big Data for Better Outcomes Programme (BD4BO), the overarching goal of PIONEER is to provide high-quality evidence on prostate cancer management by unlocking the potential of big data. The project has identified critical evidence gaps in prostate cancer care, via a detailed prioritization exercise including all key stakeholders. By standardizing and integrating existing high-quality and multidisciplinary data sources from patients with prostate cancer across different stages of the disease, the resulting big data will be assembled into a single innovative data platform for research. Based on a unique set of methodologies, PIONEER aims to advance the field of prostate cancer care with a particular focus on improving prostate-cancer-related outcomes, health system efficiency by streamlining patient management, and the quality of health and social care delivered to all men with prostate cancer and their families worldwide.

Author Correction: Introducing PIONEER: a project to harness big data in prostate cancer research.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Does total volume of physical activity matter more than pattern for onset of CVD? A prospective cohort study of older British men.

AIMS: With increasing age, physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour levels increase, as does cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. We investigate how device-measured sedentary behaviour and physical activity (PA) are related to CVD onset in men aged 70+; whether the total volume of activity is more important than pattern. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective population-based cohort study of men recruited from 24 UK General Practices in 1978-80. In 2010-12, 3137 survivors were invited to complete questionnaires and wear an Actigraph GT3x accelerometer for 7 days. PA intensity was categorised as sedentary, light and moderate to vigorous (MVPA). Men were followed up for Myocardial Infarction, stroke and heart failure (ICD9 410-414, 430-438 and 428) morbidity and mortality from 2010 to 12 to June 2016. Hazard Ratios (HRs) for incident Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) were estimated. 1528/3137 (49%) men had sufficient accelerometer data. 254 men with pre-existing CVD were excluded. Participants' mean age was 78.4 (range 71-92) years. After median 4.9 years follow-up, 122 first CVD events occurred in 1181 men (22.7/1000 person-years) with complete data. For each additional 30 min in sedentary behaviour, light PA,10 min in MVPA, or 1000 steps/day, HRs for CVD were 1.09(95%CI 1.00, 1.19), 0.94(0.85, 1.04), 0.88(0.81, 0.96) and 0.86(0.78 to 0.95) respectively, adjusted for measurement-related factors, socio-demographics, health behaviours and disability. HRs for accumulating 150 min/week MVPA in bouts ≥1 min and bouts ≥10 min were 0.47(0.32 to 0.69), and 0.49(0.25, 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: In older men, high volume of steps or MVPA rather than MVPA bouts was associated with reduced CVD risk.

Use of primary care data to predict those most vulnerable to cold weather: a case-crossover analysis.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that GPs use routinely available data to identify patients most at risk of death and ill health from living in cold homes. AIM: To investigate whether sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics could predict cold-related mortality. DESIGN AND SETTING: A case-crossover analysis was conducted on 34 777 patients aged ≥65 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink who died between April 2012 and March 2014. The average temperature of date of death and 3 days previously were calculated from Met Office data. The average 3-day temperature for the 28th day before/after date of death were calculated, and comparisons were made between these temperatures and those experienced around the date of death. METHOD: Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of death associated with temperature and interactions between temperature and sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics, expressed as relative odds ratios (RORs). RESULTS: Lower 3-day temperature was associated with higher risk of death (OR 1.011 per 1°C fall; 95% CI = 1.007 to 1.015; P<0.001). No modifying effects were observed for sociodemographic characteristics, clinical factors, and house energy efficiency characteristics. Analysis of winter deaths for causes typically associated with excess winter mortality (N = 7710) showed some evidence of a weaker effect of lower 3-day temperature for females (ROR 0.980 per 1°C, 95% CI = 0.959 to 1.002, P = 0.082), and a stronger effect for patients living in northern England (ROR 1.040 per 1°C, 95% CI = 1.013 to 1.066, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: It is unlikely that GPs can identify older patients at highest risk of cold-related death using routinely available data, and NICE may need to refine its guidance.

Objectively measured physical activity and cardiac biomarkers: A cross sectional population based study in older men.

BACKGROUND: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high sensitivity Troponin T (hsTnT) are markers of cardiac injury used in diagnosis of heart failure and myocardial infarction respectively, and associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Since physical activity is protective against cardiovascular disease and heart failure, we investigated whether higher levels of physical activity, and less sedentary behaviour were associated with lower NT-proBNP and hsTnT. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cross sectional study of 1130 men, age 70-91years, from the British Regional Heart Study, measured in 2010-2012. Fasting blood samples were analysed for NT-proBNP and hsTnT. Physical activity and sedentary behaviour were measured using ActiGraph GT3X accelerometers. Relationships between activity and NT-proBNP or hsTnT were non-linear; biomarker levels were lower with higher total activity, steps, moderate/vigorous activity and light activity only at low to moderate levels of activity. For example, for each additional 10min of moderate/vigorous activity, NT-proBNP was lower by 35.7% (95% CI -47.9, -23.6) and hsTnT by 8.4% (95% CI -11.1, -5.6), in men who undertook <25 or 50min of moderate/vigorous activity per day respectively. Biomarker levels increased linearly with increasing sedentary behaviour, but not independently of moderate/vigorous activity. CONCLUSION: Associations between biomarkers and moderate/vigorous activity (and between hsTnT and light activity) were independent of sedentary behaviour, suggesting activity is driving the relationships. In these older men with concomitantly low levels of physical activity, activity may be more important in protecting against cardiac health deterioration in less active individuals, although reverse causality might be operating.