Estimating sexual size dimorphism in fossil species from posterior probability densities.

Accurate characterization of sexual dimorphism is crucial in evolutionary biology because of its significance in understanding present and past adaptations involving reproductive and resource use strategies of species. However, inferring dimorphism in fossil assemblages is difficult, particularly with relatively low dimorphism. Commonly used methods of estimating dimorphism levels in fossils include the mean method, the binomial dimorphism index, and the coefficient of variation method. These methods have been reported to overestimate low levels of dimorphism, which is problematic when investigating issues such as canine size dimorphism in primates and its relation to reproductive strategies. Here, we introduce the posterior density peak (pdPeak) method that utilizes the Bayesian inference to provide posterior probability densities of dimorphism levels and within-sex variance. The highest posterior density point is termed the pdPeak. We investigated performance of the pdPeak method and made comparisons with the above-mentioned conventional methods via 1) computer-generated samples simulating a range of conditions and 2) application to canine crown-diameter datasets of extant known-sex anthropoids. Results showed that the pdPeak method is capable of unbiased estimates in a broader range of dimorphism levels than the other methods and uniquely provides reliable interval estimates. Although attention is required to its underestimation tendency when some of the distributional assumptions are violated, we demonstrate that the pdPeak method enables a more accurate dimorphism estimate at lower dimorphism levels than previously possible, which is important to illuminating human evolution.

Canine sexual dimorphism in Ardipithecus ramidus was nearly human-like.

Body and canine size dimorphism in fossils inform sociobehavioral hypotheses on human evolution and have been of interest since Darwin's famous reflections on the subject. Here, we assemble a large dataset of fossil canines of the human clade, including all available Ardipithecus ramidus fossils recovered from the Middle Awash and Gona research areas in Ethiopia, and systematically examine canine dimorphism through evolutionary time. In particular, we apply a Bayesian probabilistic method that reduces bias when estimating weak and moderate levels of dimorphism. Our results show that Ar. ramidus canine dimorphism was significantly weaker than in the bonobo, the least dimorphic and behaviorally least aggressive among extant great apes. Average male-to-female size ratios of the canine in Ar. ramidus are estimated as 1.06 and 1.13 in the upper and lower canines, respectively, within modern human population ranges of variation. The slightly greater magnitude of canine size dimorphism in the lower than in the upper canines of Ar. ramidus appears to be shared with early Australopithecus, suggesting that male canine reduction was initially more advanced in the behaviorally important upper canine. The available fossil evidence suggests a drastic size reduction of the male canine prior to Ar. ramidus and the earliest known members of the human clade, with little change in canine dimorphism levels thereafter. This evolutionary pattern indicates a profound behavioral shift associated with comparatively weak levels of male aggression early in human evolution, a pattern that was subsequently shared by Australopithecus and Homo.

A 1.4-million-year-old bone handaxe from Konso, Ethiopia, shows advanced tool technology in the early Acheulean.

In the past decade, the early Acheulean before 1 Mya has been a focus of active research. Acheulean lithic assemblages have been shown to extend back to ∼1.75 Mya, and considerable advances in core reduction technologies are seen by 1.5 to 1.4 Mya. Here we report a bifacially flaked bone fragment (maximum dimension ∼13 cm) of a hippopotamus femur from the ∼1.4 Mya sediments of the Konso Formation in southern Ethiopia. The large number of flake scars and their distribution pattern, together with the high frequency of cone fractures, indicate anthropogenic flaking into handaxe-like form. Use-wear analyses show quasi-continuous alternate microflake scars, wear polish, edge rounding, and striae patches along an ∼5-cm-long edge toward the handaxe tip. The striae run predominantly oblique to the edge, with some perpendicular, on both the cortical and inner faces. The combined evidence is consistent with the use of this bone artifact in longitudinal motions, such as in cutting and/or sawing. This bone handaxe is the oldest known extensively flaked example from the Early Pleistocene. Despite scarcity of well-shaped bone tools, its presence at Konso shows that sophisticated flaking was practiced by ∼1.4 Mya, not only on a range of lithic materials, but also occasionally on bone, thus expanding the documented technological repertoire of African Early Pleistocene Homo.

New geological and palaeontological age constraint for the gorilla-human lineage split.

The palaeobiological record of 12 million to 7 million years ago (Ma) is crucial to the elucidation of African ape and human origins, but few fossil assemblages of this period have been reported from sub-Saharan Africa. Since the 1970s, the Chorora Formation, Ethiopia, has been widely considered to contain ~10.5 million year (Myr) old mammalian fossils. More recently, Chororapithecus abyssinicus, a probable primitive member of the gorilla clade, was discovered from the formation. Here we report new field observations and geochemical, magnetostratigraphic and radioisotopic results that securely place the Chorora Formation sediments to between ~9 and ~7 Ma. The C. abyssinicus fossils are ~8.0 Myr old, forming a revised age constraint of the human-gorilla split. Other Chorora fossils range in age from ~8.5 to 7 Ma and comprise the first sub-Saharan mammalian assemblage that spans this period. These fossils suggest indigenous African evolution of multiple mammalian lineages/groups between 10 and 7 Ma, including a possible ancestral-descendent relationship between the ~9.8 Myr old Nakalipithecus nakayamai and C. abyssinicus. The new chronology and fossils suggest that faunal provinciality between eastern Africa and Eurasia had intensified by ~9 Ma, with decreased faunal interchange thereafter. The Chorora evidence supports the hypothesis of in situ African evolution of the Gorilla-Pan-human clade, and is concordant with the deeper divergence estimates of humans and great apes based on lower mutation rates of ~0.5 × 10(-9) per site per year (refs 13 - 15).

The Origin of Epithelium with Low-Grade Atypia in Early Gastric Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection causes chronic inflammation and atrophy of the gastric mucosa and thus a high risk of gastric cancer (GC). With the increasing success of HP infection treatment, a larger number of GCs that develop after eradication can be assessed. Several studies have shown that epithelium with low-grade atypia (ELA) is a frequent characteristic of these GCs, but the origin of this condition is unknown. In this study, we compared the mucin phenotype, cellular proliferation, and p53 staining in ELA and cancerous tissues obtained from patients with GC with and without HP eradication. METHODS: The study population consisted of 23 patients with GC that developed after successful HP eradication therapy (eradicated group) and 24 patients with GC and HP infection (infected group). The prevalence of ELA was determined by hematoxylin and eosin staining. Tumor tissue and ELA samples were further analyzed by immunohistochemical staining for Muc5AC, Muc2, p53, and Ki-67. RESULTS: The ELA coverage rate was significantly higher in the eradicated group than in the infected group. Gastric-type mucin was frequently expressed by the ELA, and the mucin phenotypes of ELA and cancerous areas differed in 75% of cases. The Ki-67 labeling index was consistently lower in ELA than in the cancerous mucosa. Fourteen of 21 (66.7%) cancerous lesions, but only 3 ELA samples, were p53-positive. CONCLUSION: In most cases, ELA on the surfaces of GCs seems to have originated from normal gastric cells, not from cancer cells.

NAFLD exacerbates cholangitis and promotes cholangiocellular carcinoma in mice.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly common condition, affecting up to 25% of the population worldwide. NAFLD has been linked to several conditions, including hepatic inflammation, fibrosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), however the role of NAFLD in cholangitis and the development of cholangiocellular carcinoma (CCC) remains poorly understood. This study investigated whether a high-fat diet (HFD) promotes cholangitis and the development of CCC in mice. We used liver-specific E-cadherin gene (CDH1) knockout mice, CDH1∆Liv , which develop spontaneous inflammation in the portal areas along with periductal onion skin-like fibrosis, similar to that of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). An HFD or normal diet (ND) was fed to CDH1∆Liv mice for 7 mo. In addition, CDH1∆Liv mice were crossed with LSL-KrasG12D mice, fed an HFD, and assessed in terms of liver tumor development. The extent of cholangitis and number of bile ductules significantly increased in mice fed an HFD compared with ND-administered CDH1∆Liv mice. The numbers of Sox9 and CD44-positive stem cell-like cells were significantly increased in HFD mice. LSL-KrasG12D /CDH1∆Liv HFD mice exhibited increased aggressiveness along with the development of numerous HCC and CCC, whereas LSL-KrasG12D /CDH1∆Liv ND mice showed several macroscopic tumors with both HCC and CCC components. In conclusion, NAFLD exacerbates cholangitis and promotes the development of both HCC and CCC in mice.

Variation of bony labyrinthine morphology in Mio-Plio-Pleistocene and modern anthropoids.

OBJECTIVES: The bony labyrinth of the inner ear has special relevance when tracking phenotypic evolution because it is often well preserved in fossil and modern primates. Here we track the evolution of the bony labyrinth of anthropoid primates during the Mio-Plio-Pleistocene-the time period that gave rise to the extant great apes and humans. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We use geometric morphometrics to analyze labyrinthine morphology in a wide range of extant and fossil anthropoids, including New World and Old World monkeys, apes, and humans; fossil taxa are represented by Aegyptopithecus, Microcolobus, Epipliopithecus, Nacholapithecus, Oreopithecus, Ardipithecus, Australopithecus, and Homo. RESULTS: Our results show that the morphology of the anthropoid bony labyrinth conveys a statistically significant phylogenetic signal especially at the family level. The bony labyrinthine morphology of anthropoids is also in part associated with size, but does not cluster by locomotor adaptations. The Miocene apes examined here, regardless of inferred locomotor behaviors, show labyrinthine morphologies distinct from modern great apes. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that labyrinthine variation contains mixed signals and alternative explanations need to be explored, such as random genetic drift and neutral phenotypic evolution, as well as developmental constraints. The observed pattern in fossil and extant hominoids also suggests that an additional factor, for example, prenatal brain development, could have potentially had a larger role in the evolutionary modification of the bony labyrinth than hitherto recognized.

Correlation between the macroscopic severity of Crohn's disease in resected intestine and bowel wall thickness evaluated by water-immersion ultrasonography.

Objectives: Transabdominal ultrasonography is a common and accurate tool for managing Crohn's disease (CD); however, the significance of the resulting data is poorly understood. This study was performed to determine the association between bowel wall thickness evaluated by water-immersion ultrasonography and macroscopic severity, namely, refractory inflammation and subsequent fibrosis in CD surgical specimens.Materials and methods: We retrospectively evaluated 100 segments of colon and small intestine from 27 patients with CD. The resected specimens were placed in saline postoperatively, and bowel wall thickness was measured by water-immersion ultrasonography and compared with macroscopic findings. Correlations between bowel wall thickness and macroscopic findings were assessed using analysis of variance and receiver operating characteristic curves.Results: According to the progression of macroscopic severity, the mean bowel wall thickness was increased as follows: macroscopically intact: 4.1 mm, longitudinal ulcer scars: 5.4 mm, longitudinal open ulcers: 6.0 mm, large ulcers: 6.4 mm, cobblestone-like lesions: 7.1 mm, and fibrotic strictures: 7.4 mm. For all lesions except longitudinal ulcer scars, the bowel wall thickness was significantly thicker than that of macroscopically-intact areas (p < .001). According to receiver operating characteristic curves, bowel wall thickness >4.5 mm was associated with CD lesions, and thickness >5.5 mm was associated with more severe lesions.Conclusions: The bowel wall thickness of CD lesions was evaluated by water-immersion ultrasonography correlated with macroscopic disease severity.

Randomized trial of vonoprazan-based versus proton-pump inhibitor-based third-line triple therapy with sitafloxacin for Helicobacter pylori.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This was a prospective, randomized trial of the efficacy of vonoprazan-based and proton-pump inhibitor-based 7-day triple regimens with amoxicillin and sitafloxacin as a third-line therapy for eradicating Helicobacter pylori after failure of clarithromycin-based and metronidazole-based first-line and second-line therapy. METHODS: We enrolled 63 patients positive for H. pylori in whom first-line and second-line regimens for eradicating failed. Patients were randomized to the V-AS group (vonoprazan 20-mg bid, amoxicillin 750-mg bid, and sitafloxacin 100-mg bid for 7 days) or PPI-AS group (esomeprazole 20-mg bid, rabeprazole 10-mg bid, or lansoprazole 30-mg bid; amoxicillin 750-mg bid; and sitafloxacin 100-mg bid for 7 days). We assessed the outcome of eradication therapy using the 13 C-urea breath test. We evaluated safety using patient questionnaires. This study was registered in the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000016336). RESULTS: The intention-to-treat and per-protocol eradication rates of V-AS were 75.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 57.7-88.9%) and 83.3% (95% CI: 65.3-94.4%), respectively. The respective eradication rates of PPI-AS were 53.3% (95% CI: 34.3-71.7%) and 57.1% (95% CI: 37.2-75.5%). In per-protocol analyses, the eradication rate of the V-AS group was significantly higher than that of the PPI-AS group (P = 0.043); however, no significant differences were observed in intention-to-treat analyses (P = 0.071). Questionnaire scores did not differ significantly between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that 7-day triple therapy with vonoprazan, amoxicillin, and sitafloxacin is more effective than proton-pump inhibitor, amoxicillin, and sitafloxacin as a third-line regimen for eradicating H. pylori.

[A Case of Lung Metastasis Occurring Four Years after Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Pancreatic Cancer].

The patient was a 68-year-old man who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer in 2011(T3N1M0, Stage Ⅲ). Fifty-one months after surgery, 2tumors measuring about 8mm in diameter were detected in the right lung. Thus, partial resection of the right lung was performed. Histological examination of both tumors revealed a tubular adenocarcinoma, with positive staining for CA19-9 and cytokeratin 7 and negative staining for cytokeratin 20, TTF-1, and napsin A, which were diagnosed as metastasis of pancreatic cancer. Twenty-nine months after the lung operation, he died because of peritoneal dissemination. Recurrent pancreatic cancer with metastasis has a particularly poor prognosis; however, surgical resection of lung metastasis in pancreatic cancer might result in a better prognosis.

[A Case of Mucosal Gastric Cancer with Lymph Node Metastasis Successfully Treated with Chemotherapy].

A 64-year-old man was found to have an irregular region in the stomach by medical examinations. Upper gastrointestinal fiberscopy(GIF)revealed a reddish lesion in the lesser curvature of the upper stomach. Biopsy showed moderately differentiated adenocarcinoma. CT revealed swollen lymph nodes from the lesser curvature of the stomach to the para-aortic region. EUS-FNA was performed twice; however, histology revealed few atypical cells. A definitive diagnosis could not be obtained. Endoscopic findings revealed that the gastric cancer had invaded as far as the mucosa. Moreover, the swollen lymph nodes were considered to have originated from a different disease, such as lymphoma. The lesion of the stomach was an indication for ESD. On April 2016, ESD was performed, and histology revealed the following: Ⅱc, 31×23 mm, tub2, T1a(M), UL-, ly-, v-, VM0, and HM0. Incisional biopsy of the lymph nodes of the para-aorta was performed the followingmonth, and histology revealed poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma, which metastasized from gastric cancer. SOX therapy was performed in 10 courses. The para-aortic lymph nodes disappeared, and the number of lesser curvature lymph nodes decreased. On August 2018, follow-up GIF endoscopy was performed. A depressed mucosa was found in the lesser curvature of the gastric body, which was away from the ESD scar. Biopsy showed moderately differentiated adenocarcinoma. Total gastrectomy with lymph node dissection was performed on November 2018. Metastasis of the lesser curvature lymph nodes was positive; however, curative resection was performed histologically.

A quantification of calcaneal lateral plantar process position with implications for bipedal locomotion in Australopithecus.

The evolution of bipedalism in the hominin lineage has shaped the posterior human calcaneus into a large, robust structure considered to be adaptive for dissipating peak compressive forces and energy during heel-strike. A unique anatomy thought to contribute to the human calcaneus and its function is the lateral plantar process (LPP). While it has long been known that humans possess a plantarly positioned LPP and apes possess a more dorsally positioned homologous structure, the relative position of the LPP and intraspecific variation of this structure have never been quantified. Here, we present a method for quantifying relative LPP position and find that, while variable, humans have a significantly more plantar position of the LPP than that found in the apes. Among extinct hominins, while the position of the LPP in Australopithecus afarensis falls within the human distribution, the LPP is more dorsally positioned in Australopithecus sediba and barely within the modern human range of variation. Results from a resampling procedure suggest that these differences can reflect either individual variation of a foot structure/function largely shared among Australopithecus species, or functionally distinct morphologies that reflect locomotor diversity in Plio-Pleistocene hominins. An implication of the latter possibility is that calcaneal changes adaptive for heel-striking bipedalism may have evolved independently in two different hominin lineages.

Vonoprazan- vs proton-pump inhibitor-based first-line 7-day triple therapy for clarithromycin-susceptible Helicobacter pylori: A multicenter, prospective, randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The eradication rate of vonoprazan-based first-line triple therapy (combined with clarithromycin and amoxicillin) (V-AC) was reported to be 97.6% in patients with clarithromycin (CAM)-susceptible Helicobacter pylori in a phase III study, whereas our real-world, prospective, multicenter cohort study yielded an eradication rate <90%. OBJECTIVE: To validate the eradication rate of V-AC using CAM-susceptible testing in a multicenter, prospective, randomized trial. METHODS: We included 147 treatment-naïve H. pylori-positive patients [41 with CAM-resistant infections and 106 with CAM-susceptible infections]. The CAM-susceptible group patients were randomized to either the V-AC group (vonoprazan 20 mg bid, amoxicillin 750 mg bid, and clarithromycin 200 or 400 mg bid) or PPI-AC group (lansoprazole 30 mg, rabeprazole 10 mg, or esomeprazole 20 mg bid; amoxicillin 750 mg bid; and clarithromycin 200 or 400 mg bid). All CAM-resistant H. pylori were eradicated by V-AC, as measured by the urea breath test around 8 weeks after eradication. Safety was evaluated by patient questionnaires. RESULTS: The intention-to-treat and per-protocol eradication rates of V-AC in the CAM-susceptible H. pylori-infected patients were 87.3% (95% confidence interval 75.5%-94.7%) and 88.9% (77.4%-95.8%). The respective eradication rates of PPI-AC were 76.5% (62.5%-87.2%) and 86.7% (73.2%-94.9%). No significant difference was observed between the V-AC and PPI-AC regimes in terms of the intention-to-treat (P = .21) or per-protocol (P = .77) analyses. The questionnaire scores did not differ significantly between the groups. Both the intention-to-treat and per-protocol eradication rates of V-AC in the CAM-resistant patients were 82.9% (67.9%-92.8%). CONCLUSION: The eradication rate of V-AC treatment in the CAM-susceptible H. pylori-infected patients was <90%, as was that by PPI-AC, thus V-AC is not ideal regimen in CAM-susceptible H. pylori. However, the 82.9% eradication rate of V-AC in the CAM-resistant infections may indicate the potential of V-AC with modified dose, dosing interval, and treatment duration. (UMIN000016337).

Correction to: Helicobacter-induced gastric inflammation alters the properties of gastric tissue stem/progenitor cells.

CORRECTION: Unfortunately, the original article [1] contained an error incorporated during production. A duplicated version of Table 1 was published in place of Table 2. Table 2 has been corrected in the original article and is also included correctly below.

c-Jun N-terminal kinase in pancreatic tumor stroma augments tumor development in mice.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a life-threatening disease and there is an urgent need to develop improved therapeutic approaches. The role of c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) in PDAC stroma is not well defined even though dense desmoplastic reactions are characteristic of PDAC histology. We aimed to explore the role of JNK in PDAC stroma in mice. We crossed Ptf1aCre/+ ;KrasG12D/+ mice with JNK1-/- mice to generate Ptf1aCre/+ ;KrasG12D/+ ;JNK1-/- (Kras;JNK1-/- ) mice. Tumor weight was significantly lower in Kras;JNK1-/- mice than in Kras;JNK1+/- mice, whereas histopathological features were similar. We also transplanted a murine PDAC cell line (mPC) with intact JNK1 s.c. into WT and JNK1-/- mice. Tumor diameters were significantly smaller in JNK1-/- mice. Phosphorylated JNK (p-JNK) was activated in α-smooth muscle actin (SMA)-positive cells in tumor stroma, and mPC-conditioned medium activated p-JNK in tumor-associated fibroblasts (TAF) in vitro. Relative expression of Ccl20 was downregulated in stimulated TAF. Ccl20 is an important chemokine that promotes CD8+ T-cell infiltration by recruitment of dendritic cells, and the number of CD8+ T cells was decreased in Kras;JNK1+/- mice compared with Kras;JNK1-/- mice. These results suggest that the cancer secretome decreases Ccl20 secretion from TAF by activation of JNK, and downregulation of Ccl20 secretion might be correlated with reduction of infiltrating CD8+ T cells. Therefore, we concluded that inhibition of activated JNK in pancreatic tumor stroma could be a potential therapeutic target to increase Ccl20 secretion from TAF and induce accumulation of CD8+ T cells, which would be expected to enhance antitumor immunity.

Helicobacter-induced gastric inflammation alters the properties of gastric tissue stem/progenitor cells.

BACKGROUND: Although Helicobacter-induced gastric inflammation is the major predisposing factor for gastric carcinogenesis, the precise mechanism by which chronic gastritis causes gastric cancer remains unclear. Intestinal and spasmolytic polypeptide-expressing metaplasia (SPEM) is considered as precancerous lesions, changes in epithelial tissue stem/progenitor cells after chronic inflammation has not been clarified yet. In this study, we utilized three-dimensional gastric epithelial cell culture systems that could form organoids, mimicking gastric epithelial layer, and characterized the changes in epithelial cells after chronic Helicobacter felis infection. METHODS: We used three mice model; 1) long-term H. felis infection, 2) H. felis eradication, and 3) MNU chemical carcinogenesis model. We performed cRNA microarray analysis after organoid culture, and analyzed the effects of chronic gastric inflammation on tissue stem cells, by the size of organoid, mRNA expression profile and immunohistochemical analysis. RESULTS: The number of organoids cultured from gastric epithelial cells was significantly higher in organoids isolated from H. felis-infected mice compared with those from uninfected gastric mucosa. Based on the mRNA expression profile, we found that possible stem cell markers such as Cd44, Dclk1, and genes associated with the intestinal phenotype, such as Villin, were increased in organoids isolated from H. felis-infected mucosa compared with the control. The upregulation of these genes were cancelled after H. felis eradication. In a xenograft model, tumors were generated only from organoids cultured from carcinogen-treated gastric mucosa, not from H. felis infected mucosa or control organoids. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that, as a possible mechanism of gastric carcinogenesis, chronic inflammation induced by H. felis infection increased the number of tissue stem/progenitor cells and the expression of stem cell markers. These findings suggest that chronic inflammation may alter the direction of differentiation toward undifferentiated state and that drawbacks may enable cells to redifferentiate to intestinal metaplasia or neoplasia.

CXCL10 Expression Status is Prognostic in Patients with Advanced Thoracic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: CXCL10, a member of the CXC chemokine family, is known to mediate chemotaxis, apoptosis, angiogenesis, and cell growth. It is also reportedly involved in tumor development and can affect prognosis in several cancers. However, the precise relationship between CXCL10 and the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is not fully understood. METHODS: We used ESCC tissue microarrays containing samples from 177 patients to test whether the CXCL10 expression status, determined using immunohistochemical analysis, is predictive of prognosis. We also tested whether CXCL10 expression status could serve as a clinically useful marker for evaluating the need for adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery. RESULTS: We found that high CXCL10 expression in clinical samples was an independent prognostic factor and was predictive of a favorable 5-year overall survival and disease-specific survival (p = 0.0102 and 0.0332, respectively). Additionally, no significant difference was detected between patients in the CXCL10-high group treated with surgery alone and those treated with surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy. In the CXCL10-low group, on the other hand, patients treated with surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy had better 5-year overall survival than those treated with surgery alone. CONCLUSIONS: High CXCL10 expression is an independent prognostic factor and has the potential to serve as a clinically useful marker of the need for adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery in patients with advanced thoracic ESCC.

An informative prior probability distribution of the gompertz parameters for bayesian approaches in paleodemography.

OBJECTIVES: In paleodemography, the Bayesian approach has been suggested to provide an effective means by which mortality profiles of past populations can be adequately estimated, and thus avoid problems of "age-mimicry" inherent in conventional approaches. In this study, we propose an application of the Gompertz model using an "informative" prior probability distribution by revising a recent example of the Bayesian approach based on an "uninformative" distribution. METHODS: Life-table data of 134 human populations including those of contemporary hunter-gatherers were used to determine the Gompertz parameters of each population. In each population, we used both raw life-table data and the Gompertz parameters to calculate some demographic values such as the mean life-span, to confirm representativeness of the model. Then, the correlation between the two Gompertz parameters (the Strehler-Mildvan correlation) was re-established. We incorporated the correlation into the Bayesian approach as an "informative" prior probability distribution, and tested its effectiveness using simulated data. RESULTS: Our analyses showed that the mean life-span (≥ age 15) and the proportion of living persons aging over 45 were well-reproduced by the Gompertz model. The simulation showed that using the correlation as an informative prior provides a narrower estimation range in the Bayesian approach than does the uninformative prior. CONCLUSIONS: The Gompertz model can be assumed to accurately estimate the mean life-span and/or the proportion of old people in a population. We suggest that the Strehler-Mildvan correlation can be used as a useful constraint in demographic reconstructions of past human populations.

Maximum likelihood estimate of life expectancy in the prehistoric Jomon: Canine pulp volume reduction suggests a longer life expectancy than previously thought.

Recent theoretical progress potentially refutes past claims that paleodemographic estimations are flawed by statistical problems, including age mimicry and sample bias due to differential preservation. The life expectancy at age 15 of the Jomon period prehistoric populace in Japan was initially estimated to have been ∼16 years while a more recent analysis suggested 31.5 years. In this study, we provide alternative results based on a new methodology. The material comprises 234 mandibular canines from Jomon period skeletal remains and a reference sample of 363 mandibular canines of recent-modern Japanese. Dental pulp reduction is used as the age-indicator, which because of tooth durability is presumed to minimize the effect of differential preservation. Maximum likelihood estimation, which theoretically avoids age mimicry, was applied. Our methods also adjusted for the known pulp volume reduction rate among recent-modern Japanese to provide a better fit for observations in the Jomon period sample. Without adjustment for the known rate in pulp volume reduction, estimates of Jomon life expectancy at age 15 were dubiously long. However, when the rate was adjusted, the estimate results in a value that falls within the range of modern hunter-gatherers, with significantly better fit to the observations. The rate-adjusted result of 32.2 years more likely represents the true life expectancy of the Jomon people at age 15, than the result without adjustment. Considering ∼7% rate of antemortem loss of the mandibular canine observed in our Jomon period sample, actual life expectancy at age 15 may have been as high as ∼35.3 years.

Esophageal Cancer Patients Have a High Incidence of Severe Periodontitis and Preoperative Dental Care Reduces the Likelihood of Severe Pneumonia after Esophagectomy.

BACKGROUND: Poor oral health is a risk factor for causing upper aerodigestive tract tumors, including esophageal cancer. Our aim was to determine the periodontitis rate in our cohort of esophageal cancer patients. We also analyzed whether preoperative dental examination and care reduces the likelihood of severe pneumonia after esophagectomy. STUDY DESIGN: Between 2003 and 2014, 529 esophageal cancer patients received esophagectomy at Akita University Hospital. We studied 232 patients who had preoperative dental examinations and care (dental care group) retrospectively and assessed the severity of their periodontitis. The dental care group was compared to 297 patients who did not have preoperative dental care (control group) with respect to the incidence of severe pneumonia after esophagectomy. RESULTS: Ninety-one patients (39.2%) in the dental care group were diagnosed with slight periodontitis and 69 (29.7%) were diagnosed with severe periodontitis. Among all the patients, 69 patients (13.0%) were diagnosed with grade 3B postoperative severe pneumonia. The dental care group had a significantly lower incidence of severe pneumonia than the control group. Moreover, multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that anastomotic leakage, preoperative dental care, gender and %VC were correlated significantly with the occurrence of postoperative severe pneumonia. CONCLUSION: Preoperative dental examination and care by a dentist are essential to reduce the likelihood of postoperative severe pneumonia in esophageal cancer patients.