Comparison of performances between risk scores for predicting mortality at 30 days in patients with community acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Risk scores facilitate the assessment of mortality risk in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Despite their utilities, there is a scarcity of evidence comparing the various RS simultaneously. This study aims to evaluate and compare multiple risk scores reported in the literature for predicting 30-day mortality in adult patients with CAP. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study on patients diagnosed with CAP was conducted across two hospitals in Colombia. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-curves) were calculated for the outcome of survival or death at 30 days using the scores obtained for each of the analyzed questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 7454 potentially eligible patients were included, with 4350 in the final analysis, of whom 15.2% (662/4350) died within 30 days. The average age was 65.4 years (SD: 21.31), and 59.5% (2563/4350) were male. Chronic kidney disease was 3.7% (9.2% vs. 5.5%; p < 0.001) (OR: 1.85) higher in subjects who died compared to those who survived. Among the patients who died, 33.2% (220/662) presented septic shock compared to 7.3% (271/3688) of the patients who survived (p < 0.001). The best performances at 30 days were shown by the following scores: PSI, SMART-COP and CURB 65 scores with the areas under ROC-curves of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.8-0.85), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.83), and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71-0.76), respectively. The RS with the lowest performance was SIRS with the area under ROC-curve of 0.53 (95% CI: 0.51-0.56). CONCLUSION: The PSI, SMART-COP and CURB 65, demonstrated the best diagnostic performances for predicting 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with CAP. The burden of comorbidities and complications associated with CAP was higher in patients who died.

Performance of risk scores in predicting mortality at 3, 6, and 12 months in patients diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Risk scores (RS) evaluate the likelihood of short-term mortality in patients diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, there is a scarcity of evidence to determine the risk of long-term mortality. This article aims to compare the effectiveness of 16 scores in predicting mortality at three, six, and twelve months in adult patients with CAP. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study on individuals diagnosed with CAP was conducted across two hospitals in Colombia. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed at 3, 6, and 12 months to assess the predictive ability of death for the following scoring systems: CURB-65, CRB-65, SCAP, CORB, ADROP, NEWS, Pneumonia Shock, REA-ICU, PSI, SMART-COP, SMRT-CO, SOAR, qSOFA, SIRS, CAPSI, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). RESULTS: A total of 3688 patients were included in the final analysis. Mortality at 3, 6, and 12 months was 5.2%, 8.3%, and 16.3% respectively. At 3 months, PSI, CCI, and CRB-65 scores showed ROC curves of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.71-0.77), 0.71 (95% CI: 0.67-0.74), and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.74). At 6 months, PSI and CCI scores showed performances of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.72-0.77) and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69-0.74), respectively. Finally at 12 months, all evaluated scores showed poor discriminatory capacity, including PSI, which decreased from acceptable to poor with an ROC curve of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66). CONCLUSION: When predicting mortality in patients with CAP, at 3 months, PSI, CCI, and CRB-65 showed acceptable predictive performances. At 6 months, only PSI and CCI maintained acceptable levels of accuracy. For the 12-month period, all evaluated scores exhibited very limited discriminatory ability, ranging from poor to almost negligible.