COVID-19 impact on overweight and obesity rates in Aotearoa | New Zealand 4-year-old children.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has had profound societal impacts. This study estimated overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity rates in 4-year-old children over pre- and post-COVID-19 periods, and investigated differential changes between sex, ethnic and deprivation groups. METHODS: A national screening programme of 4-year-old children undertaking B4 School Checks (B4SCs) between 1 January 2010 and 7 March 2023 was analysed. B4SCs include anthropometric measurements enabling sex-specific body mass index-for-age Z-scores (BMI z-scores) to be derived. Children with ≥85th, ≥95th, and ≥99.7th percentile BMI z-scores were classified as overweight, obese, and extremely obese. RESULTS: The eligible sample included 656,038 children (48.8% girls). Overall, 210,492 (32.1%) children were overweight, 95,196 (14.5%) obese, and 19,926 (3.0%) extremely obese. While decreasing in the pre-COVID-19 period, annual prevalence estimates for overweight, obese, and extremely obese significantly (all p < 0.001) increased in the year after COVID-restrictions were implemented. However, after three years, overweight and obese prevalence estimates were no different to pre-COVID levels overall or stratified by sex for ethnicity and deprivation groups. Extreme obesity prevalence estimates also decreased but remained higher than pre-COVID levels. CONCLUSION: The sharp and steep increases in prevalence estimates all dampened relatively quickly. The question remains whether these rates will continue to decrease in time. IMPACT: Compared to pre-COVID-19 estimates, the prevalence of overweight, obesity and extreme obesity significantly and substantially increased for 4-year-old children in the immediate post-COVID-19 period. These post-COVID-19 prevalence estimates dampened relatively quickly, returning to pre-COVID-19 rates for overweight and obesity after 3 years. Inequities between ethnic and social deprivation groups in overweight and obesity prevalence estimates remained similar between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods.

The psychosocial impacts of the 15 March terrorist attack on the Christchurch Muslim community: A descriptive, cross-sectional assessment.

OBJECTIVE: On 15 March 2019, a white supremacist terrorist carried out sequential attacks on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand during Friday prayers. This resulted in the loss of 51 lives, 40 others sustained gunshot injuries, and there were approximately 250 survivors. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts on community members, assess clinical needs, facilitate access to appropriate interventions and provide insights into working with a traumatised and diverse population. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used semi-structured clinical interviews and self-report measures to assess social and demographic factors, mental health disorders and well-being for adult Muslims 11-32 months post-attack. RESULTS: A total of 189 participants completed assessments. The sample was diverse, representing 34 different ethnicities and participant proximity to the attack was complex, with personal and familial exposures. Elevated levels of psychological distress and psychopathology were found with 38% of participants reporting moderate/severe psychological distress on the Kessler-10, 39% reporting post-traumatic stress disorder on the post-traumatic stress disorder checklist-5, and 40% reporting poor well-being or possible depression on the World Health Organization-5 Well Being Index. Secondary stressors were also documented, as well as high scores for post-traumatic growth and the importance of faith. CONCLUSION: This study provides valuable insights into the repercussions of the Christchurch mosque attack on the affected community, describing the complexity of exposure and the substantial burden of morbidity experienced. It also highlights the high levels of social connectedness and the role of faith in promoting positive outcomes in the recovery process for this population.

"A sweet in a polythene is not sweet": men's perceptions of their roles and experiences with family planning in East Uganda.

The significance of men's influence as partners in contraceptive decision-making and family size is often understated, particularly in patriarchal societies. Understanding men's experiences and perceptions of family planning is necessary to address women's unmet needs for contraception. This study examined men's involvement in contraceptive use and decision-making in the Busoga region of east Uganda. Twenty-four in-depth interviews were conducted with both male users and non-users of contraception living in urban and rural areas. Among participants, differences in preferred family size were influenced by competing norms valuing large families and economic wellbeing as reflections of men's role as a provider. Although the majority of interviewees were not opposed in principle to contraception, some men felt contraceptives undermined their own desire for a larger family. Men who supported family planning cited the economic benefits of smaller, healthier families and being able to fulfil their role as the primary breadwinner. Resistance to vasectomy and perceptions of condom use as protection against unwanted pregnancies and STIs/HIV in casual relationships, meant participants were unlikely to use male contraceptives. Efforts to increase contraceptive uptake among men should recognise the socio-cultural context of men's place within Ugandan society, to design reproductive health initiatives that engage men effectively.

Multimorbidity associated with urinary incontinence among older women and men with complex needs in Aotearoa | New Zealand.

AIMS: To investigate the association between multimorbidity and urinary incontinence (UI) among community living older adults with complex needs in sex-specific crude and adjusted analyses. METHODS: Since 2012 in Aotearoa | New Zealand (NZ) all community-living older people with complex needs who require publicly funded assistance undergo a comprehensive standardized geriatric needs assessment using the interRAI-HC instrument. Consenting adults aged ≥65 years who undertook this assessment between July 5, 2012 and December 31, 2020 were investigated. Multimorbidity was defined as having ≥2 chronic conditions. Recent bladder incontinence episodes were elicited and UI dichotomized into continent and incontinent groups. RESULTS: The study included 140 401 participants with an average age of 82.0 years (range: 65-107 years), of whom 85 746 (61.1%) were female. Overall, 36 185 (42.2%) females and 17 988 (32.9%) males reported UI. Participants had a median of 3 (range: 0-12) chronic conditions, with 109 135 (77.9%) classified as having multimorbidity. In adjusted modified Poisson regression analyses, the prevalence ratio for UI was 1.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19, 1.24) times higher in females and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.22) times higher for males with multimorbidity compared to those without multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Although significant, the estimated sex-specific effect sizes were modest for the association between multimorbidity and UI in this population. However, despite using the comprehensive interRAI-HC instrument, several potentially core chronic conditions were not adequately captured. Although increasingly recognized as an important and growing public health issue, capturing all relevant chronic conditions challenges many epidemiological investigations into multimorbidity.

Relationship between perceived and measured body size among Pacific 14-year-olds in Aotearoa|New Zealand: Findings from the Pacific Islands Families Study.

AIM: Pacific people carry a disproportionate burden of socio-cultural and economic determinants of health in Aotearoa | New Zealand (NZ), and 61.7% of Pacific children aged 0-14 years are overweight or obese. Yet Pacific children's self-perception of their body size is unknown. This population-based study aimed to investigate the concordance between measured and perceived body size in a cohort of Pacific 14-year-olds in NZ, and to assess how this relationship is influenced by their cultural orientation, socio-economic deprivation and degree of recreational internet use. METHODS: The Pacific Islands Families Study tracks a cohort of Pacific infants born in the year 2000 at Middlemore Hospital, South Auckland. This study is a nested cross-section of participants at the 14-year postpartum measurement wave. Following strict measurement protocols, body mass index was measured and categorised according to the World Health Organization classifications. Agreement and logistic regression analysis methods were employed. RESULTS: Of 834 participants with valid measures, 3 (0.4%) were measured as being underweight, 183 (21.9%) as normal, 235 (28.2%) as overweight and 413 (49.5%) as obese. Overall, 499 (59.8%) perceived their body size to have a lower classification than that when measured. Neither cultural orientation nor deprivation was significantly related to weight misconception but recreational internet use was, with higher use associated with increased misconception. CONCLUSIONS: Improving body size awareness together with the risk of higher recreational internet use is likely to be an important component in any population-based healthy weight intervention formulation for Pacific adolescents.

Commentary: The real (?) effect of smartphone use on parenting - a commentary on Modecki et al. (2020).

A recent publication by Modecki and colleagues asserts that 'more [smart]phone use was associated with higher parenting quality'. Modecki and colleagues make their generalistic concluding statement in contradiction to an increasingly conflicting research corpus, and we suggest that a more cautious interpretation of their data would be beneficial. This study used a cross-sectional convenience sample; however elsewhere, research questions the ability of participants to accurately estimate their own smartphone use. Further, one-sided reports of two-sided attachment relationships may be unreliable. A useful addition to the paper would have been the inclusion and stratification of demographic information about the children whose parents were surveyed. With Modecki and colleagues seeking to describe the 'real effect' of smartphones on parenting, the age, stage and needs of the children studied remained largely silent. Modecki and colleagues wisely encourage us to ask more nuanced questions in our research. We wholly agree, but also urge researchers to be more nuanced in our research designs and understanding of its implications for all within the parent:child relationship.

Risk factors for injuries in New Zealand older adults with complex needs: a national population retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Falls and falls-related injuries are common among older adults. Injuries in older adults lead to poor outcomes and lower quality of life. The objective of our study was to identify factors associated with fall-related injuries among home care clients in New Zealand. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 75,484 community-dwelling people aged 65 years or older who underwent an interRAI home care assessment between June 2012 and June 2018 in New Zealand. The injuries included for analysis were fracture of the distal radius, hip fracture, pelvic fracture, proximal humerus fracture, subarachnoid haemorrhage, traumatic subdural haematoma, and vertebral fracture. Unadjusted and adjusted competing risk regression models were used to identify factors associated with fall-related injuries. RESULTS: A total of 7414 (9.8%) people sustained a falls-related injury over the 6-year period, and most injuries sustained were hip fractures (4735 63.9%). The rate of injurious falls was 47 per 1000 person-years. The factors associated with injury were female sex, older age, living alone, Parkinson's disease, stroke/CVA, falls, unsteady gait, tobacco use, and being underweight. Cancer, dyspnoea, high BMI, and a decrease in the amount of food or fluid usually consumed, were associated with a reduced risk of sustaining an injury. After censoring hip fractures the risks associated with other types of injury were sex, age, previous falls, dyspnoea, tobacco use, and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: While it is important to reduce the risk of falls, it is especially important to reduce the risk of falls-related injuries. Knowledge of risk factors associated with these types of injuries can help to develop focused intervention programmes and development of a predictive model to identify those who would benefit from intervention programmes.

Urinary and fecal incontinence are independently associated with falls risk among older women and men with complex needs: A national population study.

AIMS: To determine the relationships between urinary incontinence (UI), fecal incontinence (FI), and falls risk among community-dwelling older women and men with complex needs, after controlling for confounders. METHODS: All community care recipients in New Zealand undergo standardized needs assessments, using the Home Care International Residential Assessment Instrument (interRAI-HC), which elicits information over multiple domains, including UI and FI frequency and falls. Consenting women and men aged greater than or equal to 65 years with at least one interRAI-HC assessment undertaken between 1 July 2012 and 1 June 2018 were investigated using multilevel mixed effects ordinal regression models, stratified by sex. RESULTS: Overall, 57 781 (61.8%) women and 35 681 (38.2%) men were eligible, contributing 138 302 interRAI-HC assessments. At first assessment, the average age was 82.0 years (range: 65-109 years); high falls risk was common, found among 8.8% of women and 12.4% of men; and 43.7% of women and 33.7% of men reported some incontinence. For women, the adjusted odds of increasing falls risk was 1.24 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.30) for those with occasional UI, 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29, 1.43) for those with frequent UI, and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.26) for those with any FI compared with their continent counterparts. Among men, the adjusted odds were 1.49 (95% CI: 1.41, 1.58) for any UI and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.27) for any FI. CONCLUSION: UI and FI are common, have separate associations with falls risk among women and men, and would benefit from routine screening in primary health care for older adults.

New Australian birthweight centiles.

OBJECTIVES: To prepare more accurate population-based Australian birthweight centile charts by using the most recent population data available and by excluding pre-term deliveries by obstetric intervention of small for gestational age babies. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective observational study. SETTING: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Perinatal Data Collection. PARTICIPANTS: All singleton births in Australia of 23-42 completed weeks' gestation and with spontaneous onset of labour, 2004-2013. Births initiated by obstetric intervention were excluded to minimise the influence of decisions to deliver small for gestational age babies before term. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birthweight centile curves, by gestational age and sex. RESULTS: Gestational age, birthweight, sex, and labour onset data were available for 2 807 051 singleton live births; onset of labour was spontaneous for 1 582 137 births (56.4%). At pre-term gestational ages, the 10th centile was higher than the corresponding centile in previous Australian birthweight charts based upon all births. CONCLUSION: Current birthweight centile charts probably underestimate the incidence of intra-uterine growth restriction because obstetric interventions for delivering pre-term small for gestational age babies depress the curves at earlier gestational ages. Our curves circumvent this problem by excluding intervention-initiated births; they also incorporate more recent population data. These updated centile curves could facilitate more accurate diagnosis of small for gestational age babies in Australia.

The Association Between Hearing Impairment and Problem Behaviors in 11-Year-Old Pacific Children Living in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVES: Hearing impairment in childhood is a serious disability that can impose a heavy social and economic burden on individuals and families. It was hypothesized that hearing loss or middle ear disease in 11-year-old Pacific children living in New Zealand would be associated with higher levels of engagement in (1) delinquent behaviors, and (2) clinical level internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors than Pacific children with no hearing loss or middle ear disease. Based on earlier findings, peer pressure, self-perception, physical punishment (slapping), sex, and ethnicity were controlled for in the association between hearing difficulties and behavioral outcomes. DESIGN: In the school setting, pure-tone audiometry and immittance audiometry assessments were used to establish the hearing level in 11-year-old Pacific children (n = 920). These children also completed multidisciplinary questionnaires, which included questions about involvement in delinquent behaviors, peer pressure, and self-perception. In the home setting, maternal reports were gathered on internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors in their offspring, their parenting style, and sociodemographic details. RESULTS: A significant effect of hearing level was detected for the odds of reporting mild delinquency versus no delinquency (odds ratio: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.05), and odds of moderate delinquency versus no delinquency (odds ratio: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.00). No significant effect was detected for hearing level and severe delinquency or internalizing or externalizing behavioral problems in the clinical range. Middle ear disease (abnormal tympanogram in the worse ear) was not significantly associated with delinquency at any level or with internalizing behaviors in the clinical range. However, children with middle ear disease were significantly less likely than all other participants to exhibit disruptive externalizing behavior in the clinical range. CONCLUSIONS: Relatively young children with hearing loss reported engagement in moderate levels of delinquency that represent serious antisocial and potentially violent acts. This finding provides evidence of the significant effect that hearing loss has on child behavior. This association between hearing loss and moderate delinquency requires ethnic-specific interventions that are targeted for maximum benefit at appropriate times in childhood to mitigate potentially long-term health, educational, and behavioral risks.

The Efficacy of Preschool Developmental Indicators as a Screen for Early Primary School-Based Literacy Interventions.

Literacy success lays the foundation for children's later educational, health, and well-being outcomes. Thus, early identification of literacy need is vital. Using data from New Zealand's national preschool health screening program for fiscal years 2010/2011-2014/2015, demographic and health variables from 255,090 children aged 4 years were related to whether they received a literacy intervention in early primary school. Overall, 20,652 (8.1%) children received an intervention. Time-to-event analysis revealed that all considered variables were significantly related to literacy intervention (all p < .01), but the full model lacked reasonable predictive power for population screening purposes (Harrell's c-statistic = .624; 95% CI [.618, .629]). Including more direct literacy measures in the national screening program is likely needed for improvement.

Increasing maternal age is not a significant cause of false-positive results for monosomy X in non-invasive prenatal testing.

OBJECTIVE: The accuracy of cell-free DNA aneuploidy screening varies by the chromosome assessed. The positive predictive value is consistently low for monosomy X (MX), at less than 30%. This study aims to investigate maternal age and other possible predictors of false-positive MX screening results in order to guide pre-test and post-test counselling. METHODS: A total of 52 499 NIPT samples were tested over 69 months, across three specialist obstetric services. Outcome data were available for 96 out of 107 cases high risk for MX. Cytogenetic outcomes were compared to clinical and demographic data to look for trends that may indicate higher likelihood of a false-positive NIPT result. RESULTS: The likelihood of a false-positive MX result significantly increased with the absence of ultrasound features suggestive of MX and with lower PAPP-A levels. Non-significant trends towards false-positive results were identified with increased maternal age, increased body mass index and Caucasian ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Maternal age is not a reliable predictor of a false-positive result. Assessment of ultrasound findings and placental serology in the first trimester is important for appropriate post-test counselling and should continue to be a part of screening even when NIPT is used as a first-tier screening test.

Quantitative evaluation of an outreach case management model of care for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults living with complex chronic disease: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic diseases are the leading contributor to the excess morbidity and mortality burden experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (hereafter, respectfully, Indigenous) people, compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts. The Home-based Outreach case Management of chronic disease Exploratory (HOME) Study provided person-centred, multidisciplinary care for Indigenous people with chronic disease. This model of care, aligned to Indigenous peoples' conceptions of health and wellbeing, was integrated within an urban Indigenous primary health care service. We aimed to determine the impact of this model of care on participants' health and wellbeing at 12 months. METHODS: HOME Study participants were Indigenous, regular patients of the primary health care service, with a diagnosis of at least one chronic disease, and complex health and social care needs. Data were collected directly from participants and from their medical records at baseline, and 3, 6 and 12 months thereafter. Variables included self-rated health status, depression, utilisation of health services, and key clinical outcomes. Participants' baseline characteristics were described using frequencies and percentages. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were employed to evaluate participant attrition and changes in outcome measures over time. RESULTS: 60 participants were enrolled into the study and 37 (62%) completed the 12-month assessment. After receiving outreach case management for 12 months, 73% of participants had good, very good or excellent self-rated health status compared with 33% at baseline (p < 0.001) and 19% of participants had depression compared with 44% at baseline (p = 0.03). Significant increases in appointments with allied health professionals (p < 0.001) and medical specialists other than general practitioners (p = 0.001) were observed at 12-months compared with baseline rates. Mean systolic blood pressure decreased over time (p = 0.02), but there were no significant changes in mean HbA1c, body mass index, or diastolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The HOME Study model of care was predicated on a holistic conception of health and aimed to address participants' health and social care needs. The positive changes in self-rated health and rates of depression evinced that this aim was met, and that participants received the necessary care to support and improve their health and wellbeing.

Risk factors for hip fracture in New Zealand older adults seeking home care services: a national population cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Hip fractures are a common injury in older people. Many studies worldwide have identified various risk factors for hip fracture. However, risk factors for hip fracture have not been studied extensively in New Zealand. The interRAI home care assessment consists of 236 health questions and some of these may be related to hip fracture risk. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 45,046 home care clients aged 65 years and older, in New Zealand. Assessments ranged from September 2012 to October 2015. Hip fracture diagnosis was identified by linking ICD (International Classification of Diseases) codes from hospital admissions data (September 2012 to December 2015) to the interRAI home care data. Unadjusted and adjusted competing risk regressions, using the Fine and Gray method were used to identify risk factors for hip fracture. Mortality was the competing event. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 61% female with a mean age of 82.7 years. A total of 3010 (6.7%) of the cohort sustained a hip fracture after assessment. After adjusting for sociodemographic and potentially confounding variables falls (SHR (Subhazard Ratio) = 1.17, 95% CI (Confidence interval): 1.05-1.31), previous hip fracture (SHR = 4.16, 95% CI: 2.93-5.89), female gender (SHR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.22-1.55), underweight (SHR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.39-2.02), tobacco use (SHR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.25-1.96), Parkinson's disease (SHR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.14-1.84), and Wandering (SHR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.07-1.72) were identified as risk factors for hip fracture. Shortness of breath (SHR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71-0.90), was identified as being protective against hip fracture risk. Males and females had different significant risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for hip fracture similar to international work on risk factors for hip fracture, can be identified using the New Zealand version of the interRAI home care assessment.

A mixed methods exploratory study tackling smoking during pregnancy in an urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander primary health care service.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy can be a time of joy and a time of significant stress. For many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (hereafter, respectfully, Indigenous) women, cigarette smoking, even during pregnancy, is a socially sanctioned behavioural response to stress. Indigenous women smoke during pregnancy at higher rates than their non-Indigenous counterparts. METHODS: A mixed methods, exploratory study, undertaken in an urban, Indigenous primary health care service, tested the impact and acceptability of a smoking cessation intervention for women pregnant with an Indigenous baby, their significant other (SO), and their primary health care service. The intervention included case management, incentivised smoking cessation support and culturally-based art activities. RESULTS: Thirty-one pregnant women and 16 SOs participated. Nearly half attempted to quit at least once during the study, 36% (4/11) of pregnant women had quit at the 3 month assessment and two remained smoke free 1 month postpartum. Most participants self-reported a reduction in tobacco smoking. Exhaled CO confirmed this for SOs (mean reduction - 2.2 ppm/assessment wave, 95% CI: -4.0, - 0.4 ppm/assessment wave, p = 0.015) but not for pregnant women. Many participants experienced social and economic vulnerabilities, including housing and financial insecurity and physical safety concerns. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking is normalised and socially sanctioned in Indigenous communities and smoking is frequently a response to the multitude of stressors and challenges that Indigenous people experience on a daily basis. Smoking cessation interventions for pregnant Indigenous women must be cognisant of the realities of their private lives where the smoking occurs, in addition to the impact of the broader societal context. Narrow definitions of success focussing only on smoking cessation ignore the psychological benefit of empowering women and facilitating positive changes in smoking behaviours. Our smoking cessation intervention supported pregnant women and their SOs to manage these stressors and challenges, thereby enabling them to develop a solid foundation from which they could address their smoking. A broad definition of success in this space is required: one that celebrates positive smoking behaviour changes in addition to cessation.

Sociodemographic, environmental characteristics and comorbidities of older adults with schizophrenia who access community health service support: A national cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Schizophrenia is a serious and chronic mental illness known to have broad ranging impacts for individuals across the lifespan, yet research on the disease in older adults is sparse. This study provides a profile of the sociodemographic, environmental and diagnostic characteristics of older community residents with schizophrenia using a national database. METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of individuals who underwent community needs assessment using the standardised Home Care International Residential Assessment Instrument between 1 September 2012 and 31 January 2016 was utilised. Sociodemographic, diagnostic, and social and environmental variables were measured for individuals with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and compared to those without a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Statistical investigations employed bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total sample of 71,859 was eligible and 517 (0.7%) had a diagnosis of schizophrenia. The majority of the sociodemographic variables were statistically associated with schizophrenia in the adjusted analysis, except for ethnicity ( p = 0.35). Nearly all the measured social and environmental variables were adversely associated with having a diagnosis of schizophrenia, such as living in squalid conditions (adjusted odds ratio = 2.16; 95% confidence interval = [1.42, 3.28]). Participants with schizophrenia were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with all assessed psychiatric comorbidities ( p < 0.001) and diabetes mellitus ( p = 0.002), whereas coronary heart disease ( p = 0.001) and other physical comorbidities ( p = 0.001) were found at significantly lower rates. CONCLUSION: The profile of schizophrenia found here suggests some subtle differences in the demographic profile and distribution of medical comorbidities in the older population with schizophrenia. The results also suggest that this group continues to experience social disadvantage into old age. This requires the attention of policy-makers to ensure that services are tailored to the high social needs of these individuals.

Integrating health, education and culture in predicting Pacific children's English receptive vocabulary at 6 years: A classification tree approach.

AIM: Pacific children fare poorly on health and educational outcomes, including literacy. Early interventions are considered critical in reducing educational disparities. A prediction model was constructed to analyse the factors associated with Pacific children's English receptive vocabulary, an important component of English language development. METHODS: A birth cohort study of Pacific children was used to construct a classification tree model and predict the proportions of Pacific children who performed strongly in a standardised test of English receptive vocabulary at 6 years of age (n = 1019). Classification trees were constructed using 10-fold cross-validation (CV) and pruned using the one-standard-error rule. Prediction errors were directly estimated using leave-one-out CV. RESULTS: Analyses of misclassification errors from the pruned model gave false negative and positive rates of 19 and 19% from re-substitution and 54 and 21% from leave-one-out CV estimation, respectively. Of the predictors, maternal acculturation, small birthweight and performance in early developmental screening test at 4 years of age were found to have the highest goodness of split. CONCLUSIONS: The cultural environment to which Pacific children were exposed in early childhood, indicated by the maternal acculturation, was more crucial in distinguishing children with strong English-receptive vocabulary skills than socio-economic or prenatal conditions. This highlights the importance of integrating the cultural environment into designing measures for facilitating Pacific children's language development.

Hearing and ear status of Pacific children aged 11 years living in New Zealand: the Pacific Islands families hearing study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of hearing loss and ear problems in Pacific children, and investigate current and past demographic, health and social factors potentially associated with hearing and ear problems. DESIGN: A cross-sectional observational study design nested within a birth cohort was employed. STUDY SAMPLE: Nine-hundred-twenty Pacific children aged 11 years were audiologically assessed. Using average hearing thresholds at 500, 1k and 2k Hz, 162 (18%) right and 197 (21%) left ears had ≥20 dB hearing loss. Hearing loss was mild (20-39 dB) in most cases; 2% of ears had moderate to moderate-severe (40-69 dB) hearing loss. However, only 101 (11%) children had normal peripheral hearing defined by passing hearing threshold, tympanogram and distortion product otoacoustic emission assessments. Those with confirmed middle ear disease at age 2 years had significantly increased odds of a non-Type A tympanogram (adjusted odds ratio: 2.00; 95% confidence interval: 1.56, 2.50) when re-assessed at age 11 years. CONCLUSIONS: Hearing loss, abnormal tympanograms, and auditory processing difficulties were present in many Pacific children. Interventions are also urgently needed to mitigate the effect of the longstanding ear disease likely to be present for many Pacific children.

Falls and hip fractures associated with urinary incontinence among older men and women with complex needs: A national population study.

AIMS: To determine if urinary incontinence (UI) was an independent risk factor for falls and hip fractures in community-dwelling older men and women with complex needs, after controlling for confounders. METHODS: Since 2012, all community care recipients in New Zealand have undergone standardized needs assessments using the Home Care International Residential Assessment Instrument (interRAI-HC). The interRAI-HC elicits information over multiple domains, including UI frequency and falls. Those aged 65+ years with assessment between July 1, 2012 and May 31, 2014 without collection devices or indwelling catheters were matched to hospital, mortality, and pharmaceutical databases, and apposite regression models applied. RESULTS: Overall, 25 257 (37.5%) men and 42 032 (62.5%) women were eligible, with average age of 82.7 years (range: 65, 106 years). Incontinence was reported by 34.3% of men and 42.6% of women, falls within 90 days by 42.7% of men and 39.1% of women; and fractures recorded for 2.5% of men and 3.7% of women. In multivariable analysis, UI was significantly associated with falls (P < 0.001), and differentially related by sex (P < 0.001). Compared to continent participants, the odds of increasing falls risk was 1.69 (95% CI: 1.57, 1.82) for men with frequent incontinence and 1.53 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.64) for men with occasional continence; higher than the 1.39 (95% CI: 1.32, 1.46) and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.26, 1.39), respectively, for women. UI was not associated with hip fractures. CONCLUSION: UI is a common independent risk factor for falls but not hip fractures. Patterns are different between men and women with complex needs.

A frailty index derived from a standardized comprehensive geriatric assessment predicts mortality and aged residential care admission.

BACKGROUND: Frailty in older adults is a condition characterised by a loss or reduction in physiological reserve resulting in increased clinical vulnerability. However, evidence suggests that frailty may be modifiable, and identifying frail older people could help better target specific health care interventions and services. METHODS: This was a regional longitudinal study to develop a frailty index for older adults living in Canterbury New Zealand. Participants included 5586 community dwelling older people that had an interRAI Minimum Data Set (MDS-HC) Home Care assessment completed between 2008 and 2012. The outcome measures were mortality and entry into aged residential care (ARC), after five years. RESULTS: Participants were aged between 65 and 101 (mean age was 82 years). The five-year mortality rate, including those who entered ARC, for this cohort was 67.1% (n = 3747). The relationship between the frailty index and both mortality and entry into ARC was significant (P < 0.001). At five years, 25.1% (n = 98) of people with a baseline frailty of < 0.1 had died compared with 28.2% (n = 22) of those with a frailty index of ≥0.5 (FS 5). Furthermore, 43.7% (n = 171) of people with a frailty index of < 0.1 were still living at home compared to 2.6% (n = 2) of those with a frailty index of ≥0.5. CONCLUSION: A frailty index was created that predicts mortality, and admission into ARC. This index could help healthcare professionals and clinicians identify older people at risk of health decline and mortality, so that appropriate services and interventions may be put in place.