A comparison of Spectral Angle Mapper and Artificial Neural Network classifiers combined with Landsat TM imagery analysis for obtaining burnt area mapping.

Satellite remote sensing, with its unique synoptic coverage capabilities, can provide accurate and immediately valuable information on fire analysis and post-fire assessment, including estimation of burnt areas. In this study the potential for burnt area mapping of the combined use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classifiers with Landsat TM satellite imagery was evaluated in a Mediterranean setting. As a case study one of the most catastrophic forest fires, which occurred near the capital of Greece during the summer of 2007, was used. The accuracy of the two algorithms in delineating the burnt area from the Landsat TM imagery, acquired shortly after the fire suppression, was determined by the classification accuracy results of the produced thematic maps. In addition, the derived burnt area estimates from the two classifiers were compared with independent estimates available for the study region, obtained from the analysis of higher spatial resolution satellite data. In terms of the overall classification accuracy, ANN outperformed (overall accuracy 90.29%, Kappa coefficient 0.878) the SAM classifier (overall accuracy 83.82%, Kappa coefficient 0.795). Total burnt area estimates from the two classifiers were found also to be in close agreement with the other available estimates for the study region, with a mean absolute percentage difference of ≈ 1% for ANN and ≈ 6.5% for SAM. The study demonstrates the potential of the examined here algorithms in detecting burnt areas in a typical Mediterranean setting.

Increased water-use efficiency and reduced CO2 uptake by plants during droughts at a continental-scale.

Severe droughts in the Northern Hemisphere cause widespread decline of agricultural yield, reduction of forest carbon uptake, and increased CO2 growth rates in the atmosphere. Plants respond to droughts by partially closing their stomata to limit their evaporative water loss, at the expense of carbon uptake by photosynthesis. This trade-off maximizes their water-use efficiency, as measured for many individual plants under laboratory conditions and field experiments. Here we analyze the 13C/12C stable isotope ratio in atmospheric CO2 (reported as δ13C) to provide new observational evidence of the impact of droughts on the water-use efficiency across areas of millions of km2 and spanning one decade of recent climate variability. We find strong and spatially coherent increases in water-use efficiency along with widespread reductions of net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere during severe droughts that affected Europe, Russia, and the United States in 2001-2011. The impact of those droughts on water-use efficiency and carbon uptake by vegetation is substantially larger than simulated by the land-surface schemes of six state-of-the-art climate models. This suggests that drought induced carbon-climate feedbacks may be too small in these models and improvements to their vegetation dynamics using stable isotope observations can help to improve their drought response.

A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems.

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2 degrees C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2-3 degrees C, and >3 degrees C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50 degrees N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3 degrees C than for <2 degrees C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of approximately 1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3 degrees C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.