Projection of extreme heat- and cold-related mortality in Sweden based on the spatial synoptic classification.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is projected to result in increased heat events and decreased cold events. This will substantially impact human health, particularly when compounded with demographic change. This study employed the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) to categorize daily weather into one of seven types. Here we estimated future mortality due to extremely hot and cold weather types under different climate change scenarios for one southern (Stockholm) and one northern (Jämtland) Swedish region. METHODS: Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between extremely hot and cold weather events and daily deaths in the population above 65 years, with cumulative effects (6 days in summer, 28 days in winter), 1991 to 2014. A global climate model (MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to project the occurrence of hot and cold days from 2031 to 2070. Place-specific projected mortality was calculated to derive attributable numbers and attributable fractions (AF) of heat- and cold-related deaths. RESULTS: In Stockholm, for the RCP 4.5 scenario, the mean number of annual deaths attributed to heat increased from 48.7 (CI 32.2-64.2; AF = 0.68%) in 2031-2040 to 90.2 (56.7-120.5; AF = 0.97%) in 2061-2070, respectively. For RCP 8.5, heat-related deaths increased more drastically from 52.1 (33.6-69.7; AF = 0.72%) to 126.4 (68.7-175.8; AF = 1.36%) between the first and the last decade. Cold-related deaths slightly increased over the projected period in both scenarios. In Jämtland, projections showed a small decrease in cold-related deaths but no change in heat-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In rural northern region of Sweden, a decrease of cold-related deaths represents the dominant trend. In urban southern locations, on the other hand, an increase of heat-related mortality is to be expected. With an increasing elderly population, heat-related mortality will outweigh cold-related mortality at least under the RCP 8.5 scenario, requiring societal adaptation measures.

Socioeconomic and geographical inequalities in health care coverage in Mozambique: a repeated cross-sectional study of the 2015 and 2018 national surveys.

BACKGROUND: Over the past years, Mozambique has implemented several initiatives to ensure equitable coverage to health care services. While there have been some achievements in health care coverage at the population level, the effects of these initiatives on social inequalities have not been analysed. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to assess changes in socioeconomic and geographical inequalities (education, wealth, region, place of residence) in health care coverage between 2015 and 2018 in Mozambique. METHODS: The study was based on repeated cross-sectional surveys from nationally representative samples: the Survey of Indicators on Immunisation, Malaria and HIV/AIDS in Mozambique (IMASIDA) 2015 and the 2018 Malaria Indicator survey. Data from women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) were analysed to evaluate health care coverage of three indicators: insecticide-treated net use, fever treatment of children, and use of Fansidar malaria prophylaxis for pregnant women. Absolute risk differences and the slope index of inequality (SII) were calculated for the 2015 survey period and the 2018 survey period, respectively. An interaction term between the socioeconomic and geographical variables and the period was included to assess inequality changes between 2015 and 2018. RESULTS: The non-use of insecticide-treated nets dropped, whereas the proportion of women with children who were not treated for fever and the prevalence of women who did not take the full Fansidar dose during pregnancy decreased between 2015 and 2018. Significant reductions in the inequality related to insecticide-treated net use were observed for all socioeconomic variables. Concerning fever treatment, some reductions in socioeconomic inequalities were observed, though not statistically significant. For malaria prophylaxis, the SII was significant for education, wealth, and residence in both periods, but no significant inequality reductions were observed in any of these variables over time. CONCLUSIONS: We observed significant reductions of socioeconomic inequalities in insecticide-treated net use, but not in fever treatment of children and Fansidar prophylaxis for pregnant women. Decision-makers should target underserved populations, specifically the non-educated, poor, and rural women, to address inequalities in health care coverage.

Climate vulnerability of Swedish newborns: Gender differences and time trends of temperature-related neonatal mortality, 1880-1950.

BACKGROUND: In resource-poor societies, neonatal mortality (death in the first 28 days of life) is usually very high. Young infants are particularly vulnerable to environmental health risks, which are modified by socioeconomic factors that change over time. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and neonatal mortality in northern Sweden during the demographic transition. METHODS: Parish register data and temperature data in coastal Västerbotten, Sweden, between 1880 and 1950 were used. Total and sex-specific neonatal mortality was modelled as a function of mean temperature, adjusting for age, seasonality and calendar time, using discrete-time survival analysis. A linear threshold function was applied with a cut point at 14.5 °C (the minimum mortality temperature). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. Further analyses were stratified by study period (1800-1899, 1900-1929, and 1930-1950). RESULTS: Neonatal mortality was 32.1 deaths/1000 live births, higher in boys than in girls, and decreased between 1880 and 1950, with high inter-annual variability. Mean daily temperature was +2.5 °C, ranging from -40.9 °C to +28.8 °C. At -20 °C, the OR of neonatal death was 1.56 (CI 1.30-1.87) compared to the reference at +14.5 °C. Among girls, the OR of mortality at -20 °C was 1.17 (0.88-1.54), and among boys, it was 1.94 (1.53-2.45). A temperature increase from +14.5 to +20 °C was associated with a 25% increase of neonatal mortality (OR 1.25, CI 1.04-1.50). Heat- and cold-related risks were lowest between 1900 and 1929. CONCLUSIONS: In this remote sub-Arctic region undergoing socio-economic changes, we found an increased mortality risk in neonates related to low but also to high temperature. Climate vulnerability varied across time and was particularly high among boys. This demonstrates that environmental impacts on human health are complex and highly dependent on the specific local context, with many, often unknown, contributing determinants of vulnerability.

Effect of extreme hot and cold weather on cause-specific hospitalizations in Sweden: A time series analysis.

Considering that several meteorological variables can contribute to weather vulnerability, the estimation of their synergetic effects on health is particularly useful. The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) has been used in biometeorological applications to estimate the effect of the entire suite of weather conditions on human morbidity and mortality. In this study, we assessed the relationships between extremely hot and dry (dry tropical plus, DT+) and hot and moist (moist tropical plus, MT+) weather types in summer and extremely cold and dry (dry polar plus, DP+) and cold and moist (moist polar, MP+) weather types in winter and cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations by age and sex. Time-series quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather types and daily hospitalizations over 14 subsequent days in the extended summer (May to August) and 28 subsequent days during the extended winter (November to March) over 24 years in 4 Swedish locations from 1991 to 2014. In summer, exposure to hot weather types appeared to reduce cardiovascular hospitalizations while increased the risk of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases, mainly related to MT+. In winter, the effect of cold weather on both cause-specific hospitalizations was small; however, MP+ was related to a delayed increase in cardiovascular hospitalizations, whilst MP+ and DP + increased the risk of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases. This study provides useful information for the staff of hospitals and elderly care centers who can help to implement protective measures for patients and residents. Also, our results could be helpful for vulnerable people who can adopt protective measures to reduce health risks.

Socio-economic and demographic factors associated with reproductive and child health preventive care in Mozambique: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Reproductive and child health interventions are essential to improving population health in Africa. In Mozambique, although some progress on reproductive and child health has been made, knowledge of social inequalities in health and health care is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate socio-economic and demographic inequalities in reproductive and child preventive health care as a way to monitor progress towards universal health coverage. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted, using data collected from the 2015 Immunization, AIDS and Malaria Indicators Survey (IMASIDA) in Mozambique. The sample included 6946 women aged 15 to 49 years. Outcomes variables were the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) for children under 5 years, full child immunization and modern contraception use, while independent variables included age, marital status, place of residence, region, education, occupation, and household wealth index. Prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by log binomial regression to assess the relationship between the socio-economic and demographic characteristics and the three outcomes of interest. RESULTS: The percentage of mothers with at least one child under 5 years that did not use ITN was 51.01, 46.25% of women had children aged 1 to 4 years who were not fully immunized, and 74.28% of women were not using modern contraceptives. Non-educated mothers (PR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.16-1.51) and those living in the Southern region (PR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.17-1.59) had higher risk of not using ITN, while the poorest quintile (PR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.04-1.71) was more likely to have children who were not fully immunized. Similarly, non-educated women (PR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.10-1.25), non-working women (PR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.16), and those in the poorest quintile (PR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.04-1.24) had a higher risk of not using modern contraceptives. CONCLUSION: Our study showed a low rate of ITN utilization, immunization coverage of children, and modern contraceptive use among women of reproductive age. Several socio-economic and demographics factors (region, education, occupation, and wealth) were associated with these preventive measures. We recommend an equity-oriented resource allocation across regions, knowledge dissemination on the importance of ITN and contraceptives use, and an expansion of immunization services to reach socio-economically disadvantaged families in order to achieve universal health coverage in Mozambique.

Hot and cold weather based on the spatial synoptic classification and cause-specific mortality in Sweden: a time-stratified case-crossover study.

The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is a holistic categorical assessment of the daily weather conditions at specific locations; it is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health. In this study, we assessed (a) the effect of hot weather types and the duration of heat events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in summer and (b) the effect of cold weather types and the duration of cold events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in winter. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was carried out to investigate the association of weather types with cause-specific mortality in two southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and two northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations in Sweden. During summer, in the southern locations, the Moist Tropical (MT) and Dry Tropical (DT) weather types increased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality at shorter lags; both hot weather types substantially increased respiratory mortality mainly in Skåne. The impact of heat events on mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was more important in the southern than in the northern locations at lag 0. The cumulative effect of MT, DT and heat events lagged over 14 days was particularly high for respiratory mortality in all locations except in Jämtland, though these did not show a clear effect on cardiovascular mortality. During winter, the dry polar and moist polar weather types and cold events showed a negligible effect on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. This study provides valuable information about the relationship between hot oppressive weather types with cause-specific mortality; however, the cold weather types may not capture sufficiently effects on cause-specific mortality in this sub-Arctic region.

Intimate partner violence against women in Nigeria: a multilevel study investigating the effect of women's status and community norms.

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women has been recognised as a public health problem with far-reaching consequences for the physical, reproductive, and mental health of women. The ecological framework portrays intimate partner violence as a multifaceted phenomenon, demonstrating the interplay of factors at different levels: individual, community, and the larger society. The present study examined the effect of individual- and community-level factors on IPV in Nigeria, with a focus on women's status and community-level norms among men. METHODS: A cross-sectional study based on the latest Nigerian Demographic Health Survey (2013) was conducted involving 20,802 ever-partnered women aged 15-49 years. Several multilevel logistic regression models were calibrated to assess the association of individual- and community-level factors with IPV. Both measures of association (fixed effect) and measures of variations (random effect) were reported. RESULTS: Almost one in four women in Nigeria reported having ever experienced intimate partner violence. Having adjusted for other relevant covariates, higher women's status reduced the odds of IPV (OR = 0.47; 95% CI = 0.32-0.71). However, community norms among men that justified IPV against women modified the observed protective effect of higher women's status against IPV and reversed the odds (OR = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.26-2.83). CONCLUSIONS: Besides women's status, community norms towards IPV are an important factor for the occurrence of IPV. Thus, addressing intimate partner violence against women calls for community-wide approaches aimed at changing norms among men alongside improving women's status.

Socioenvironmental factors associated with heat and cold-related mortality in Vadu HDSS, western India: a population-based case-crossover study.

Ambient temperatures (heat and cold) are associated with mortality, but limited research is available about groups most vulnerable to these effects in rural populations. We estimated the effects of heat and cold on daily mortality among different sociodemographic groups in the Vadu HDSS area, western India. We studied all deaths in the Vadu HDSS area during 2004-2013. A conditional logistic regression model in a case-crossover design was used. Separate analyses were carried out for summer and winter season. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for total mortality and population subgroups. Temperature above a threshold of 31 °C was associated with total mortality (OR 1.48, CI = 1.05-2.09) per 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature. Odds ratios were higher among females (OR 1.93; CI = 1.07-3.47), those with low education (OR 1.65; CI = 1.00-2.75), those owing larger agricultural land (OR 2.18; CI = 0.99-4.79), and farmers (OR 1.70; CI = 1.02-2.81). In winter, per 1 °C decrease in mean temperature, OR for total mortality was 1.06 (CI = 1.00-1.12) in lag 0-13 days. High risk of cold-related mortality was observed among people occupied in housework (OR = 1.09; CI = 1.00-1.19). Our study suggests that both heat and cold have an impact on mortality particularly heat, but also, to a smaller degree, cold have an impact. The effects may differ partly by sex, education, and occupation. These findings might have important policy implications in preventing heat and cold effects on particularly vulnerable groups of the rural populations in low and middle-income countries with hot semi-arid climate.

The role of psychosocial stress at work for the development of cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: A systematic review was carried out to assess evidence for the association between different models of stress at work, and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. METHODS: A literature search was conducted using five databases (MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PSYNDEX and PsycINFO). Inclusion criteria for studies were the following: self-reported stress for individual workplaces, prospective study design and incident disease (myocardial infarction, stroke, angina pectoris, high blood pressure). Evaluation, according to the criteria of the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network, was done by two readers. In case of disagreement, a third reader was involved. RESULTS: Twenty-six publications were included, describing 40 analyses out of 20 cohorts. The risk estimates for work stress were associated with a statistically significant increased risk of cardiovascular disease in 13 out of the 20 cohorts. Associations were significant for 7 out of 13 cohorts applying the demand-control model, all three cohorts using the effort-reward model and 3 out of 6 cohorts investigating other models. Most significant results came from analyses considering only men. Results for the association between job stress and cardiovascular diseases in women were not clear. Associations were weaker in participants above the age of 55. CONCLUSIONS: In accordance with other systematic reviews, this review stresses the importance of psychosocial factors at work in the aetiology of cardiovascular diseases. Besides individual measures to manage stress and to cope with demanding work situations, organisational changes at the workplace need to be considered to find options to reduce occupational risk factors for cardiovascular diseases.

Wealth inequalities in reproductive and child health preventive care in Mozambique: a decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the gap between rich and poor is important to monitor inequalities in health. Identifying the contribution to that gap can help policymakers to develop interventions towards decreasing that difference. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the wealth inequalities in health preventive measures (bed net use, vaccination, and contraceptive use) to determine the demographic and socioeconomic contribution factors to that inequality using a decomposition analysis. METHODS: Data from the 2015 Immunisation, Malaria and AIDs Indicators Survey were used. The total sample included 6946 women aged 15-49 years. Outcomes were use of insecticide-treated nets (ITN), child vaccination, and modern contraception use. Wealth Index was the exposure variable and age, marital status, place of residence, region, education, occupation, and household wealth index were the explanatory variables. Wealth inequalities were assessed using concentration indexes (Cindex). Wagstaff-decomposition analysis was conducted to assess the determinants of the wealth inequality. RESULTS: The Cindex was -0.081 for non-ITN, -0.189 for lack of vaccination coverage and -0.284 for non-contraceptive use, indicating a pro-poor inequality. The results revealed that 88.41% of wealth gap for ITN was explained by socioeconomic factors, with education and wealth playing the largest roles. Lack of full vaccination, socioeconomic factors made the largest contribution, through the wealth variable, whereas geographic factors came next. Finally, the lack of contraceptive use, socioeconomic factors were the main explanatory factors, but to a lesser degree than the other two outcomes, with wealth and education contributing most to explaining the gap. CONCLUSION: There was a pro-poor inequality in reproductive and child preventive measures in Mozambique. The greater part of this inequality could be attributed to wealth, education, and residence in rural areas. Resources should be channeled into poor and non-educated rural communities to tackle these persistent inequities in preventive care.

Association of occupation with prevalent hypertension in an elderly East German population: an exploratory cross-sectional analysis.

PURPOSE: Hypertension is one of the most relevant risk factors for cardiovascular disease; however, little is known about differences in hypertension by occupation. The aim of this study was to explore the association between occupational group and prevalent hypertension. METHODS: Cross-sectional data of the CARLA study were used, a representative sample of an East German population aged 45-83. Job titles of the current or last held occupation of 967 men and 808 women were coded using the German classification of occupation. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure of ≥140 mmHg (systolic), ≥90 mmHg (diastolic) or use of antihypertensives. Sex-stratified, age-adjusted prevalence risk ratios (PR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for 31 occupational groups. RESULTS: Hypertension was prevalent in 79% of the population. In men, highest age-adjusted prevalence ratios were observed in metal-processing workers, carpenters/painters, and electricians with PRs of 1.31 (CI 1.04-1.65), 1.28 (CI 1.00-1.64), and 1.21 (0.95-1.53), respectively, compared to office clerks. In women, highest PRs were found in technicians/forewomen, scrutinisers/storekeepers, and food-processing occupations with PR 1.28 (1.09-1.49), 1.23 (0.99-1.51), and 1.22 (1.01-1.48), respectively. Adjustment for education, smoking, body mass index, and current work hours did not fully explain occupational differences. Excluding currently non-working subjects lead to decreased PRs in men and to increased PR in women. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the prevalences of hypertension by occupational group were only partly explained by conventional risk factors and may require workplace interventions targeted at high-risk occupations. Longitudinal data with large cohorts and work-related exposure assessment are needed to confirm a temporal relationship between occupation and incident hypertension.

Association of childhood and adult socioeconomic indicators with cardiovascular risk factors and its modification by age: the CARLA Study 2002-2006.

BACKGROUND: The influence of socioeconomic status (SES) on cardiovascular diseases and risk factors is widely known, although the role of different SES indicators is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of different SES indicators for cardiovascular disease risk factors in a middle and old aged East German population. METHODS: Cross-sectional data of an East German population-based cohort study (1779 men and women aged 45 to 83) were used to assess the association of childhood and adulthood SES indicators (childhood SES, education, occupational position, income) with cardiovascular risk factors. Adjusted means and odds ratios of risk factors by SES indicators with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by linear and logistic regression models, stratified by sex. The interaction effect of education and age on cardiovascular risk factors was tested by including an interaction term. RESULTS: In age-adjusted models, education, occupational position, and income were statistically significantly associated with abdominal obesity in men, and with smoking in both sexes. Men with low education had a more than threefold risk of being a smoker (OR 3.44, CI 1.58-7.51). Low childhood SES was associated with higher systolic blood pressure and abdominal obesity in women (OR 2.27, CI 1.18-4.38 for obesity); a non-significant but (in terms of effect size) relevant association of childhood SES with smoking was observed in men. In women, age was an effect modifier for education in the risk of obesity and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: We found considerable differences in cardiovascular risk factors by education, occupational position, income, and partly by childhood social status, differing by sex. Some social inequalities levelled off in higher age. Longitudinal studies are needed to differentiate between age and birth cohort effects.

Ambient temperature and stillbirth risks in northern Sweden, 1880-1950.

BACKGROUND: Climate vulnerability of the unborn can contribute to adverse birth outcomes, in particular, but it is still not well understood. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and stillbirth risk among a historical population in northern Sweden (1880-1950). METHODS: We used digitized parish records and daily temperature data from the study region covering coastal and inland communities some 600 km north of Stockholm, Sweden. The data included 141,880 births, and 3,217 stillbirths, corresponding to a stillbirth rate of 22.7 (1880-1950). The association between lagged temperature (0-7 days before birth) and stillbirths was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover design. Incidence risk ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals were computed, and stratified by season and sex. RESULTS: We observed that the stillbirth risk increased both at low and high temperatures during the extended summer season (April to September), at -10°C, and the IRR was 2.3 (CI 1.28, 4.00) compared to the minimum mortality temperature of +15°C. No clear effect of temperature during the extended winter season (October to March) was found. Climate vulnerability was greater among the male fetus compared to the female counterparts. CONCLUSION: In this subarctic setting before and during industrialization, both heat and cold during the warmer season increased the stillbirth risk. Urbanization and socio-economic development might have contributed to an uneven decline in climate vulnerability of the unborn.

Association of health behaviour with heart rate variability: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Reduced heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive marker of autonomic dysfunction, and an unhealthy lifestyle are associated with an increased morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The autonomic dysfunction is a potential mediator of the association of behavioural risk factors with adverse health outcomes. We studied the association of HRV with behavioural risk factors in an elderly population. METHODS: This analysis was based on the cross-sectional data of 1671 participants (age range, 45-83 years) of the prospective, population-based Cardiovascular Disease, Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) Study. Physical activity, smoking habits, alcohol consumption and dietary patterns were assessed in standardized interviews. Time and frequency domain measures of HRV were computed from 5-min segments of highly standardized 20-min electrocardiograms. Their association with behavioural risk factors was determined by linear and non-parametric regression modelling. RESULTS: There were only weak and inconsistent associations of higher physical activity, moderate consumption of alcohol, and non-smoking with higher time and frequency domain HRV in both sexes, and no association with dietary pattern. Results changed only marginally by excluding subjects with CVD, diabetes mellitus and use of cardioactive medication. CONCLUSION: We hypothesized that HRV is associated with behavioural factors and therefore might be a mediator of the effect of behavioural risk factors on CVD, but this hypothesis was not confirmed by our results. These findings support the interpretation that there may be no true causal association of behavioural factors with HRV.

Neonatal Mortality and Temperature in Two Northern Swedish Rural Parishes, 1860-1899-The Significance of Ethnicity and Gender.

The aim of this study was to analyze the association between season of birth and daily temperature for neonatal mortality in two Swedish rural parishes between 1860 and 1899. Further, we aimed to study whether the association varied according to ethnicity (indigenous Sami reindeer herders and non-Sami settlers) and gender. The source material for this study comprised digitized parish records from the Demographic Data Base, Umeå University, combined with local weather data provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Using a time event-history approach, we investigated the association between daily temperature (at birth and up to 28 days after birth) and the risk of neonatal death during the coldest months (November through March). The results showed that Sami neonatal mortality was highest during winter and that the Sami neonatal mortality risk decreased with higher temperatures on the day of birth. Male neonatal risk decreased with higher temperatures during the days following birth, while no effect of temperature was observed among female neonates. We conclude that weather vulnerability differed between genders and between the indigenous and non-indigenous populations.

Health Status and Health Care Needs of Drought-Related Migrants in the Horn of Africa-A Qualitative Investigation.

Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, situated in the Horn of Africa, are highly vulnerable to climate change, which manifests itself through increasing temperatures, erratic rains and prolonged droughts. Millions of people have to flee from droughts or floods either as cross-border refugees or as internally displaced persons (IDPs). The aim of this study was to identify knowledge status and gaps regarding public health consequences of large-scale displacement in these countries. After a scoping review, we conducted qualitative in-depth interviews during 2018 with 39 stakeholders from different disciplines and agencies in these three countries. A validation workshop was held with a selection of 13 interviewees and four project partners. Malnutrition and a lack of vaccination of displaced people are well-known challenges, while mental health problems and gender-based violence (GBV) are less visible to stakeholders. In particular, the needs of IDPs are not well understood. The treatment of mental health and GBV is insufficient, and IDPs have inadequate access to essential health services in refugee camps. Needs assessment and program evaluations with a patients' perspective are either lacking or inadequate in most situations. The Horn of Africa is facing chronic food insecurity, poor population health and mass displacement. IDPs are an underserved group, and mental health services are lacking. A development approach is necessary that moves beyond emergency responses to the building of long-term resilience, the provision of livelihood support and protection to reduce displacement by droughts.

Cardiovascular diseases, risk factors and short-term heart rate variability in an elderly general population: the CARLA study 2002-2006.

BACKGROUND: A reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with worse prognosis, increased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. There are conflicting results and a lack of population-based data regarding the association of HRV with CVD risk factors and its potential role as independent cause or mediator of CVD risk. METHODS: Cross-sectional data of a population-based cohort including 1,779 women and men aged 45-83 years were used to analyse associations of time and frequency domain measures of HRV (derived from 5-min ECG segments) with age, behavioural and biomedical risk factors and disease in the whole sample and in a "healthy" subgroup. RESULTS: Age was inversely associated with all measures of HRV (mean standard deviation of normal intervals across 10-year age-groups 32.1, 26.9, 27.1 and 24.8 ms in women, 29.3, 25.9, 23.8 and 25.7 ms in men). There was no association of physical activity, current smoking or alcohol with HRV. In age-adjusted models, triglycerides, glucose, waist-to-hip ratio and diabetes were inversely associated with HRV in men and women, and low/high density cholesterol and hypertension in men only (up to 43% difference across risk factor quartiles). Multivariable adjustment and restriction to the "healthy" subgroup attenuated the associations. CONCLUSIONS: We found only weak and inconsistent associations of HRV with cardiovascular risk factors. However, these results as well as those from previous studies are still compatible with the hypothesis that short-term HRV may be a marker of ill health or a mediator of the effect of selected biomedical risk factors on CVD.

Cumulative occupational lumbar load and lumbar disc disease--results of a German multi-center case-control study (EPILIFT).

BACKGROUND: The to date evidence for a dose-response relationship between physical workload and the development of lumbar disc diseases is limited. We therefore investigated the possible etiologic relevance of cumulative occupational lumbar load to lumbar disc diseases in a multi-center case-control study. METHODS: In four study regions in Germany (Frankfurt/Main, Freiburg, Halle/Saale, Regensburg), patients seeking medical care for pain associated with clinically and radiologically verified lumbar disc herniation (286 males, 278 females) or symptomatic lumbar disc narrowing (145 males, 206 females) were prospectively recruited. Population control subjects (453 males and 448 females) were drawn from the regional population registers. Cases and control subjects were between 25 and 70 years of age. In a structured personal interview, a complete occupational history was elicited to identify subjects with certain minimum workloads. On the basis of job task-specific supplementary surveys performed by technical experts, the situational lumbar load represented by the compressive force at the lumbosacral disc was determined via biomechanical model calculations for any working situation with object handling and load-intensive postures during the total working life. For this analysis, all manual handling of objects of about 5 kilograms or more and postures with trunk inclination of 20 degrees or more are included in the calculation of cumulative lumbar load. Confounder selection was based on biologic plausibility and on the change-in-estimate criterion. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated separately for men and women using unconditional logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, region, and unemployment as major life event (in males) or psychosocial strain at work (in females), respectively. To further elucidate the contribution of past physical workload to the development of lumbar disc diseases, we performed lag-time analyses. RESULTS: We found a positive dose-response relationship between cumulative occupational lumbar load and lumbar disc herniation as well as lumbar disc narrowing among men and women. Even past lumbar load seems to contribute to the risk of lumbar disc disease. CONCLUSION: According to our study, cumulative physical workload is related to lumbar disc diseases among men and women.

The association between cold extremes and neonatal mortality in Swedish Sápmi from 1800 to 1895.

Background: Studies in which the association between temperature and neonatal mortality (deaths during the first 28 days of life) is tracked over extended periods that cover demographic, economic and epidemiological transitions are quite limited. From previous research about the demographic transition in Swedish Sápmi, we know that infant and child mortality was generally higher among the indigenous (Sami) population compared to non-indigenous populations. Objective: The aim of this study was to analyse the association between extreme temperatures and neonatal mortality among the Sami and non-Sami population in Swedish Sápmi (Lapland) during the nineteenth century. Methods: Data from the Demographic Data Base, Umeå University, were used to identify neonatal deaths. We used monthly mean temperature in Tornedalen and identified cold and warm month (5th and 95th) percentiles. Monthly death counts from extreme temperatures were modelled using negative binomial regression. We computed relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for time trends and seasonality. Results: Overall, the neonatal mortality rate was higher among Sami compared to non-Sami infants (62/1,000 vs 35/1,000 live births), although the differences between the two populations decreased after 1860. For the Sami population prior 1860, the results revealed a higher neonatal incidence rate during cold winter months (<-15.4°C, RR = 1.60, CI 1.14-2.23) compared to infants born during months of medium temperature. No association was found between extreme cold months and neonatal mortality for non-Sami populations. Warm months (+15.1°C) had no impact on Sami or non-Sami populations. Conclusions: This study revealed the role of environmental factors (temperature extremes) on infant health during the demographic transition where cold extremes mainly affected the Sami population. Ethnicity and living conditions contributed to differential weather vulnerability.

Season of birth, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality in Sweden: the Sami and non-Sami population, 1800-1899.

Seasonal patterns of neonatal mortality and stillbirths have been found around the world. However, little is known about the association between season of birth and infant mortality of pre-industrial societies in a subarctic environment. In this study, we compared how season of birth affected the neonatal and stillbirth risk among the Sami and non-Sami in Swedish Sápmi during the nineteenth century. Using digitised parish records from the Demographic Data Base at Umeå University, we applied logistic regression models for estimating the association of season of birth with stillbirths and neonatal mortality, respectively. Higher neonatal mortality was found among the winter- and autumn-born Sami, compared to summer-born infants. Stillbirth risk was higher during autumn compared to summer among the Sami, whereas we found no seasonal differences in mortality among the non-Sami population. We relate the higher neonatal mortality risk among winter-born Sami to differences in seasonality of living conditions associated with reindeer herding.