Importance of Transplant Era on Post-Heart Transplant Predictive Models: A UNOS Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The application of posttransplant predictive models is limited by their poor statistical performance. Neglecting the dynamic evolution of demographics and medical practice over time may be a key issue. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to develop and validate era-specific predictive models to assess whether these models could improve risk stratification compared to non-era-specific models. METHODS: We analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database including first noncombined heart transplantations (2001-2018, divided into four transplant eras: 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015, 2016-2018). The endpoint was death or retransplantation during the 1st-year posttransplant. We analyzed the dynamic evolution of major predictive variables over time and developed era-specific models using logistic regression. We then performed a multiparametric evaluation of the statistical performance of era-specific models and compared them to non-era-specific models in 1000 bootstrap samples (derivation set, 2/3; test set, 1/3). RESULTS: A total of 34 738 patients were included, 3670 patients (10.5%) met the composite endpoint. We found a significant impact of transplant era on baseline characteristics of donors and recipients, medical practice, and posttransplant predictive models, including significant interaction between transplant year and major predictive variables (total serum bilirubin, recipient age, recipient diabetes, previous cardiac surgery). Although the discrimination of all models remained low, era-specific models significantly outperformed the statistical performance of non-era-specific models in most samples, particularly concerning discrimination and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Era-specific models achieved better statistical performance than non-era-specific models. A regular update of predictive models may be considered if they were to be applied for clinical decision-making and allograft allocation.

Cold pressor test using strain-gauge plethysmography.

This laboratory activity is designed to teach students how to measure forearm muscle blood flow (FBF) to describe the mechanisms of peripheral blood flow thermal regulation in healthy subjects. The cold pressor test (CPT) is the clinical procedure used in the experiment to induce arterial vasoconstriction. Strain-gauge plethysmography is applied on the patient's forearm to noninvasive monitor vasoconstriction effects on local blood perfusion and physiological parameters such as blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR). Patients with an altered peripheral vascular resistance (e.g., in hypertension) have different responses to the CPT from healthy subjects. To date, experimental evidence remains unexplained, as we do not know if the BP and HR increase is caused by a decrease in flow rate or an increase in peripheral vascular resistance during the test. To clarify this situation, we have to quantify the parameter we assume is being conditioned by the regulatory physiological intervention, i.e., peripheral vascular resistance. Peripheral vascular resistance quantification can be calculated as the ratio between muscle flow and mean arterial pressure. Students will learn how to apply the instrumental procedure to collect and analyze data before, during, and after the CPT and to describe the physiological responses of the peripheral vascular system to external stressors. They will also learn how to distinguish healthy from pathological responses on the basis of how sympathetic nervous system reactions influence the biomechanics of peripheral vessels.

Effect of a Fourth Dose of mRNA Vaccine and of Immunosuppression in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections in Heart Transplant Patients.

Patients with heart transplantation (HT) have an increased risk of COVID-19 disease and the efficacy of vaccines on antibody induction is lower, even after three or four doses. The aim of our study was to assess the efficacy of four doses on infections and their interplay with immunosuppression. We included in this retrospective study all adult HT patients (12/21-11/22) without prior infection receiving a third or fourth dose of mRNA vaccine. The endpoints were infections and the combined incidence of ICU hospitalizations/death after the last dose (6-month survival rate). Among 268 patients, 62 had an infection, and 27.3% received four doses. Following multivariate analysis, three vs. four doses, mycophenolate (MMF) therapy, and HT < 5 years were associated with an increased risk of infection. MMF ≥ 2000 mg/day independently predicted infection, together with the other variables, and was associated with ICU hospitalization/death. Patients on MMF had lower levels of anti-RBD antibodies, and a positive antibody response after the third dose was associated with a lower probability of infection. In HT patients, a fourth dose of vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 reduces the risk of infection at six months. Mycophenolate, particularly at high doses, reduces the clinical effectiveness of the fourth dose and the antibody response to the vaccine.