Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Pollen in water of unstable salinity: Evolution and function of dynamic apertures in monocot aquatics.

PREMISE: The sporoderm of seed-plant pollen grains typically has apertures in which the outer sporopollenin-bearing layer is relatively sparse. The apertures allow regulation of the internal volume of the pollen grain during desiccation and rehydration (harmomegathy) and also serve as sites of pollen germination. A small fraction of angiosperms undergo pollination in water or at the water surface, where desiccation is unlikely. Their pollen grains commonly lack apertures, though with some notable exceptions. We tested a hypothesis that in some angiosperm aquatics that inhabit water of unstable salinity, the pollen apertures accommodate osmotic effects that occur during pollination in such conditions. METHODS: Pollen grains of the tepaloid clade of the monocot order Alismatales, which contains ecologically diverse aquatic and marshy plants, were examined using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. We used Ruppia as a model to test pollen grain response in water of various salinities. Pollen aperture evolution was also analyzed using molecular tree topologies. RESULTS: Phylogenetic optimizations demonstrated an evolutionary loss and two subsequent regains of the aperturate condition in the tepaloid clade of Alismatales. Both of the taxa that have reverted to aperturate pollen (Ruppia, Ruppiaceae; Althenia, Potamogetonaceae) are adapted to changeable water salinity. Direct experiments with Ruppia showed that the pollen apertures have a role in a harmomegathic response to differences in water salinity. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the inferred regain of pollen apertures represents an adaptation to changeable water salinity. We invoke a loss-and-regain scenario, prompting questions that are testable using developmental genetics and plant physiology.

Near-ground effect of height on pollen exposure.

The effect of height on pollen concentration is not well documented and little is known about the near-ground vertical profile of airborne pollen. This is important as most measuring stations are on roofs, but patient exposure is at ground level. Our study used a big data approach to estimate the near-ground vertical profile of pollen concentrations based on a global study of paired stations located at different heights. We analyzed paired sampling stations located at different heights between 1.5 and 50 m above ground level (AGL). This provided pollen data from 59 Hirst-type volumetric traps from 25 different areas, mainly in Europe, but also covering North America and Australia, resulting in about 2,000,000 daily pollen concentrations analyzed. The daily ratio of the amounts of pollen from different heights per location was used, and the values of the lower station were divided by the higher station. The lower station of paired traps recorded more pollen than the higher trap. However, while the effect of height on pollen concentration was clear, it was also limited (average ratio 1.3, range 0.7-2.2). The standard deviation of the pollen ratio was highly variable when the lower station was located close to the ground level (below 10 m AGL). We show that pollen concentrations measured at >10 m are representative for background near-ground levels.

Phenological Analysis of Grasses (Poaceae) in Comparison with Aerobiological Data in Moscow (Russia).

Grasses (Poaceae) produce large amounts of pollen and are among the main causes of pollinosis worldwide. Despite their morphological similarity, pollen grains of different grass species may have different allergenicities. Therefore, quantification of the roles of individual species in airborne pollen is an important task. There are very few studies on this topic, and none of them have been conducted in a temperate continental climate. Our study was carried out for three years (2020-2022) in the urban territory of Moscow (Russia) and aimed to understand what grass species contribute the most to the total pollen load of the atmosphere. The comparison of aerobiological and phenological data was based on calculating the phenological index, which is a combination of phenological parameters, pollen productivity of individual species, and their abundance. Our data showed that the decomposition of pollination curves based on the phenological index was sometimes very efficient but not always possible in temperate continental climates. The main reasons for disagreement between aerobiological and phenological data were weather conditions and lawn mowing. Not all grasses were equally important as sources of allergenic pollen. The greatest contribution to the pollen load at the beginning of the season in Moscow was made by Dactylis glomerata, and to a lesser extent by Phleum pratense and Festuca pratensis. These are the most common species, which are widespread throughout Europe. The contribution of minor components is insignificant.

Kazakhstan Has an Unexpected Diversity of Medicinal Plants of the Genus Acorus (Acoraceae) and Could Be a Cradle of the Triploid Species A. calamus.

The Acorus calamus group, or sweet flag, includes important medicinal plants and is classified into three species: A. americanus (diploid), A. verus (tetraploid), and A. calamus (sterile triploid of hybrid origin). Members of the group are famous as components of traditional Indian medicine, and early researchers suggested the origin of the sweet flag in tropical Asia. Subsequent research led to an idea of the origin of the triploid A. calamus in the Amur River basin in temperate Asia, because this was the only region where both diploids and tetraploids were known to co-occur and be capable of sexual reproduction. Contrary to this hypothesis, triploids are currently very rare in the Amur basin. Here, we provide the first evidence that all three species occur in Kazakhstan. The new records extend earlier data on the range of A. verus for c. 1800 km. Along the valley of the Irtysh River in Kazakhstan and the adjacent Omsk Oblast of Russia, A. verus is recorded in the south, A. americanus in the north, and A. calamus is common in between. We propose the Irtysh River valley as another candidate for a cradle of the triploid species A. calamus. It is possible that the range of at least one parent species (A. americanus) has contracted through competition with its triploid derivative species, for which the Irtysh River floods provide a tool for downstream range expansion. We refine our earlier data and show that the two parent species have non-overlapping ranges of variation in a quantitative metric of leaf aerenchyma structure.

Aerobiological Monitoring and Metabarcoding of Grass Pollen.

Grass pollen is one of the leading causes of pollinosis, affecting 10-30% of the world's population. The allergenicity of pollen from different Poaceae species is not the same and is estimated from moderate to high. Aerobiological monitoring is a standard method that allows one to track and predict the dynamics of allergen concentration in the air. Poaceae is a stenopalynous family, and thus grass pollen can usually be identified only at the family level with optical microscopy. Molecular methods, in particular the DNA barcoding technique, can be used to conduct a more accurate analysis of aerobiological samples containing the DNA of various plant species. This study aimed to test the possibility of using the ITS1 and ITS2 nuclear loci for determining the presence of grass pollen from air samples via metabarcoding and to compare the analysis results with the results of phenological observations. Based on the high-throughput sequencing data, we analyzed the changes in the composition of aerobiological samples taken in the Moscow and Ryazan regions for three years during the period of active flowering of grasses. Ten genera of the Poaceae family were detected in airborne pollen samples. The representation for most of them for ITS1 and ITS2 barcodes was similar. At the same time, in some samples, the presence of specific genera was characterized by only one sequence: either ITS1 or ITS2. Based on the analysis of the abundance of both barcode reads in the samples, the following order could describe the change with time in the dominant species in the air: Poa, Alopecurus, and Arrhenatherum in early mid-June, Lolium, Bromus, Dactylis, and Briza in mid-late June, Phleum, Elymus in late June to early July, and Calamagrostis in early mid-July. In most samples, the number of taxa found via metabarcoding analysis was higher compared to that in the phenological observations. The semi-quantitative analysis of high-throughput sequencing data well reflects the abundance of only major grass species at the flowering stage.

A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Pollen Production of Selected Grass Species in Russia and India at the Levels of Anther, Flower and Inflorescence.

Grasses produce large amounts of pollen and are among the main causes of pollen allergy worldwide. Quantification of the roles of individual grass species in airborne pollen is an important task, because morphologically indistinguishable pollen grains of different species may differ in allergenicity. This requires knowledge of the pollen production of individual grass species; however, accumulated data are insufficient in this respect. Attempting to fill this gap, we studied pollen production per inflorescence in 29 grass species which are widespread in Middle Russia and India. Pollen production per inflorescence is determined by the number of grains per anther, the number of flowers in a spikelet and the number of spikelets per inflorescence, with the latter parameter being the most variable. We support the hypothesis that pollen production per inflorescence differs significantly between annual and perennial grasses. The greater pollen production of perennials can be interpreted as a tendency to guarantee cross-fertilization of species with self-incompatibility. The inferred pollen/ovule (P/O) ratios suggest the occurrence of facultative xenogamy in all annuals and obligate xenogamy in most perennials in the present dataset, though some self-incompatible annuals exist outside our sampling. Earlier data indicated that the P/O ratio of the annual cereal crop rye (Secale cereale) is higher than in any annual or perennial species sampled here. A ratio of pollen production to seed set (P/S ratio) is suggested to be another efficient parameter in reproductive biology of grasses. We highlight a need for detailed studies of reproductive biology in grasses that include both pollen and seed production. We found a correlation between pollen production per anther and anther length. A rough approximation of c. 1000 pollen grains per 1 mm of the length of an anther provides an instrument for estimates of pollen production in plant communities.

Ornithogenic vegetation: How significant has the seabird influence been on the Aleutian Island vegetation during the Holocene?

In the Aleutian Islands during the Holocene, terrestrial predators were actually absent; as a result, large seabird colonies thrived along the coasts or across entire islands. Bird guano enriches the soil with nitrogen, which can lead to the formation of highly modified ornithogenic (bird-formed) ecosystems. For a more detailed investigation of avian influence, we reconstructed more than 10,000-year-old vegetation dynamics of the coast of Shemya Island (Near Islands) by pollen analysis. At the initial stages of vegetation development (10,000-4,600 cal year BP), sedge-heather tundra grew in the studied area. A seabird colony existed on Shemya from 4,600 to 2,400 cal year BP according to stable isotope analysis. During a period of at least 2,200 years, nitrogen enrichment led to the development of ornithogenic herb meadows with a high presence of Apiaceae. A long-term increase in δ15N above 9-10‰ led to radical shifts in vegetation. Noticeable reduction of seabird colonies due to human hunting led to grass-meadows spreading. After a prolonged decrease δ15N below 9-10‰ (2,400 cal year BP to present), there was a shift toward less productive sedge-tundra communities. However, the significant enrichment of guano affected only the coastal vegetation and did not alter the inland Shemya Island.

Suggested mechanisms underlying pollen wall development in Ambrosia trifida (Asteraceae: Heliantheae).

By a detailed ontogenetic study of Ambrosia trifida pollen, tracing each stage of development with TEM, we aim to understand the establishment of the pollen wall and to unravel the mechanisms underlying sporoderm development. The main steps of exine ontogeny in Ambrosia trifida, observed in the microspore periplasmic space, are as follows: spherical units, gradually transforming into columns, then to rod-like units; the appearance of the initial reticulate tectum; growth of columellae under the tectum and initial sporopollenin accumulation on them; the appearance of the endexine lamellae, first in fragments, then in long laminae; the cessation of the glycocalyx growth and its detachment from the plasma membrane, resulting in the appearance of gaps; massive accumulation of sporopollenin on the tectum, columellae, and endexine, and the appearance of the foot layer at the young post-tetrad stage, accompanied by establishment of caveae in sites of the former gaps; and final massive sporopollenin accumulation. This sequence of developmental events in all probability corresponds to the sequence of self-assembling micellar mesophases. This gives (together with earlier findings and experimental modeling of exine) strong evidence that the genome and self-assembly share control of exine formation. In this sense, self-assembly itself can be seen as an inherent mechanism of evolution.

Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes. METHODS: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to Tmax, cumulative degree day Tmax, Tmin, cumulative degree day Tmin, and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations. FINDINGS: 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0·9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in Tmax over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0·52, p=0·034) as were annual cumulative increases in Tmin (r=0·61, p=0·010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for Tmax (r=0·53, p=0·030) and Tmin (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations. INTERPRETATION: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (Tmin and Tmax) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health-one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase. FUNDING: None.

A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe.

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and Norway, where the lack of data did not allow for conclusive analysis. The constructed model was capable of predicting the SPI with correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.9 for some stations, odds ratio is infinitely high for 50% of sites inside the region and the fraction of prediction falling within factor of 2 from observations, stays within 40-70%. In particular, model successfully reproduced both the bi-annual cycle of the SPI and years when this cycle breaks down.