Improving the clinical meaning of surrogate endpoints: An empirical assessment of clinical progression in phase III oncology trials.

Disease progression in clinical trials is commonly defined by radiologic measures. However, clinical progression may be more meaningful to patients, may occur even when radiologic criteria for progression are not met, and often requires a change in therapy in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to determine the utilization of clinical progression criteria within progression-based trial endpoints among phase III trials testing systemic therapies for metastatic solid tumors. The primary manuscripts and protocols of phase III trials were reviewed for whether clinical events, such as refractory pain, tumor bleeding, or neurologic compromise, could constitute a progression event. Univariable logistic regression computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI for associations between trial-level covariates and clinical progression. A total of 216 trials enrolling 148,190 patients were included, with publication dates from 2006 through 2020. A major change in clinical status was included in the progression criteria of 13% of trials (n = 27), most commonly as a secondary endpoint (n = 22). Only 59% of trials (n = 16) reported distinct clinical progression outcomes that constituted the composite surrogate endpoint. Compared with other disease sites, genitourinary trials were more likely to include clinical progression definitions (16/33 [48%] vs. 11/183 [6%]; OR, 14.72; 95% CI, 5.99 to 37.84; p < .0001). While major tumor-related clinical events were seldom considered as disease progression events, increased attention to clinical progression may improve the meaningfulness and clinical applicability of surrogate endpoints for patients with metastatic solid tumors.

Lost in the plot: missing visual elements in Kaplan-Meier plots of phase III oncology trials.

Missing visual elements (MVE) in Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves can misrepresent data, preclude curve reconstruction, and hamper transparency. This study evaluated KM plots of phase III oncology trials. MVE were defined as an incomplete y-axis range or missing number at risk table in a KM curve. Surrogate endpoint KM curves were additionally evaluated for complete interpretability, defined by (1) reporting the number of censored patients and (2) correspondence of the disease assessment interval with the number at risk interval. Among 641 trials enrolling 518 235 patients, 116 trials (18%) had MVE in KM curves. Industry sponsorship, larger trials, and more recently published trials were correlated with lower odds of MVE. Only 3% of trials (15 of 574) published surrogate endpoint KM plots with complete interpretability. Improvements in the quality of KM curves of phase III oncology trials, particularly for surrogate endpoints, are needed for greater interpretability, reproducibility, and transparency in oncology research.

Prevalence, trends, and characteristics of trials investigating local therapy in contemporary phase 3 clinical cancer research.

BACKGROUND: Although most patients with cancer are treated with local therapy (LT), the proportion of late-phase clinical trials investigating local therapeutic interventions is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the proportion, characteristics, and trends of phase 3 cancer clinical trials assessing the therapeutic value of LT over time. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis of interventional randomized controlled trials in oncology published from 2002 through 2020 and registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. Trends and characteristics of LT trials were compared to all other trials. RESULTS: Of 1877 trials screened, 794 trials enrolling 584,347 patients met inclusion criteria. A total of 27 trials (3%) included a primary randomization assessing LT compared with 767 trials (97%) investigating systemic therapy or supportive care. Annual increase in the number of LT trials (slope [m] = 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15-0.39; p < .001) was outpaced by the increase of trials testing systemic therapy or supportive care (m = 7.57; 95% CI, 6.03-9.11; p < .001). LT trials were more often sponsored by cooperative groups (22 of 27 [81%] vs. 211 of 767 [28%]; p < .001) and less often sponsored by industry (5 of 27 [19%] vs. 609 of 767 [79%]; p < .001). LT trials were more likely to use overall survival as primary end point compared to other trials (13 of 27 [48%] vs. 199 of 767 [26%]; p = .01). CONCLUSIONS: In contemporary late-phase oncology research, LT trials are increasingly under-represented, under-funded, and evaluate more challenging end points compared to other modalities. These findings strongly argue for greater resource allocation and funding mechanisms for LT clinical trials. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Most people who have cancer receive treatments directed at the site of their cancer, such as surgery or radiation. We do not know, however, how many trials test surgery or radiation compared to drug treatments (that go all over the body). We reviewed trials testing the most researched strategies (phase 3) completed between 2002 and 2020. Only 27 trials tested local treatments like surgery or radiation compared to 767 trials testing other treatments. Our study has important implications for funding research and understanding cancer research priorities.

Management of chordoma and chondrosarcoma with definitive dose-escalated single-fraction spine stereotactic radiosurgery.

PURPOSE: The management of chordoma or chondrosarcoma involving the spine is often challenging due to adjacent critical structures and tumor radioresistance. Spine stereotactic radiosurgery (SSRS) has radiobiologic advantages compared with conventional radiotherapy, though there is limited evidence on SSRS in this population. We sought to characterize the long-term local control (LC) of patients treated with SSRS. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients with chordoma or chondrosarcoma treated with dose-escalated SSRS, defined as 24 Gy in 1 fraction to the gross tumor volume. Overall survival (OS) was calculated by Kaplan-Meier functions. Competing risk analysis using the cause-specific hazard function estimated LC time. RESULTS: Fifteen patients, including 12 with chordoma and 3 with chondrosarcoma, with 22 lesions were included. SSRS intent was definitive, single-modality in 95% of cases (N = 21) and post-operative in 1 case (5%). After a median censored follow-up time of 5 years (IQR 4 to 8 years), median LC time was not reached (IQR 8 years to not reached), with LC rates of 100%, 100%, and 90% at 1 year, 2 years, and 5 years. The median OS was 8 years (IQR 3 years to not reached). Late grade 3 toxicity occurred after 23% of treatments (N = 5, fracture), all of which were managed successfully with stabilization. CONCLUSION: Definitive dose-escalated SSRS to 24 Gy in 1 fraction appears to be a safe and effective treatment for achieving durable local control in chordoma or chondrosarcoma involving the spine, and may hold particular importance as a low-morbidity alternative to surgery in selected cases.

Chronic Electroconvulsive Therapy May Induce Calvarial Hyperemia and Marrow Replacement.

ABSTRACT: Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is a treatment option for a number of psychiatric disorders, including refractory major depression and obsessive compulsive disorder. There are no known structural sequelae of ECT. Here we present a patient with severe refractory obsessive compulsive disorder and major depression treated over 2 years with ECT every 2 weeks. Planning magnetic resonance imaging intended for a potential procedural intervention for her psychiatric disease incidentally demonstrated a new area of increased enhancement and loss of marrow signal within the right frontal bone. Imaging findings were suggestive of underlying bone marrow or bone changes, although there was no evidence of bone destruction on bone-windowed computed tomography (CT) and there was no uptake on nuclear bone scan. The CT chest/abdomen/pelvis were also reassuring that this did not represent metastatic disease, and findings were unchanged on repeat magnetic resonance imaging 4 months later. Thus, this area corresponded to the site directly underlying the unilateral ECT electrode placement, suggestive of never-before described ECT-induced hyperemia. We report for the first time that frequent, chronic ECT may induce asymptomatic skull bone marrow hyperemia with radiologic findings. This appears to be a direct consequence of electrical current leading to chronic inflammatory and edematous marrow replacement. Electroconvulsive therapy should be added to the neuroradiological differential diagnosis of calvarial enhancement and loss of marrow signal. Psychiatrists should counsel patients on the possibility of this rare radiological finding, which may be confused for other processes.

An autoimmune-based, paraneoplastic neurologic syndrome following checkpoint inhibition and concurrent radiotherapy for merkel cell carcinoma: case report.

PURPOSE: Merkel cell carcinoma is highly sensitive to both radiation and immunotherapy. Moreover, concurrent radioimmunotherapy may capitalize on anti-tumor immune activity and improve Merkel cell treatment response, although an enhanced immune system may cross-react with native tissues and lead to significant sequelae. METHODS: Here we present a case study of a patient with metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma treated with radiotherapy concurrent with pembrolizumab. RESULTS: After radioimmunotherapy, the patient developed sensory neuropathy, visual hallucinations, and mixed motor neuron findings. Neurologic dysfunction progressed to profound gastrointestinal dysmotility necessitating parenteral nutrition and intubation with eventual expiration. CONCLUSION: This case represents a unique autoimmune paraneoplastic neurologic syndrome, likely specific to neuroendocrine tumors and motivated by concurrent radioimmunotherapy. Recognition of the potential role of radioimmunotherapy may provide an advantage in anticipating these severe sequelae.

Systemic inflammatory dynamics during chemoradiotherapy predict response, relapse, metastasis, and survival in esophageal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Lymphopenia associated with chemoradiotherapy predicts prognosis in esophageal carcinoma. The purpose of our study was to evaluate alterations in hematologic measures of inflammation during chemoradiation. METHODS: We performed an observational study evaluating adults treated with chemoradiation in the neoadjuvant or definitive setting for stage II-III esophageal carcinoma. Multivariable logistic regression evaluated predictors of pathologic response. Survival was analyzed by time-varying multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions. RESULTS: A total of 94 patients were included with median follow-up of 1.6 years. Elevated neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was predictive of incomplete pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (OR, 1.07; P = .0030) as well as shorter distant metastasis-free survival (HR, 1.01; P = .0369) and reduced overall survival (HR, 1.01; P = .0448). An NLR > 5.55 in week two of chemoradiation predicted shorter overall survival (P = .0070). Upon adjusted analysis, NLR was independently associated with reduced probability of complete pathologic response (OR, 0.80; P = .0291), as well as poor histologic response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (OR, 1.05; P = .0303), shorter disease-free survival (HR, 1.02; P = .0077), and reduced overall survival (HR, 1.02; P = .0070). CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic time-dependent changes in NLR during chemoradiation predict response, relapse, metastasis, and survival in esophageal carcinoma. Prospective validation is warranted.

Outcomes of stereotactic radiosurgery and hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy for refractory Cushing's disease.

PURPOSE: Hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (HSRT) for refractory Cushing's disease may offer a condensed treatment schedule for patients with large tumors abutting the optic chiasm unsuitable for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). To-date only four patients have been treated by HSRT in the published literature. We investigated the feasibility, toxicity, and efficacy of HSRT compared to SRS. METHODS: After approval, we retrospectively evaluated patients treated at our institution for refractory Cushing's disease with SRS or HSRT. Study outcomes included biochemical control, time to biochemical control, local control, and late complications. Binary logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression evaluated predictors of outcomes. RESULTS: Patients treated with SRS (n = 9) and HSRT (n = 9) were enrolled with median follow-up of 3.4 years. Clinicopathologic details were balanced between the cohorts. Local control was 100% in both cohorts. Time to biochemical control was 6.6. and 9.5 months in the SRS and HSRT cohorts, respectively (p = 0.6258). Two patients in each cohort required salvage bilateral adrenalectomy. Late complications including secondary malignancy, radionecrosis, cranial nerve neuropathy, and optic pathway injury were minimal for either cohort. CONCLUSIONS: HSRT is an appropriate treatment approach for refractory Cushing's disease, particularly for patients with large tumors abutting the optic apparatus. Prospective studies are needed to validate these findings and identify factors suggesting optimal fractionation approaches.

Feasibility and Tolerability of Adjuvant Capecitabine-Based Chemoradiation in Patients With Breast Cancer and Residual Disease After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: A Prospective Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE: Addition of adjuvant capecitabine improves overall survival for patients with breast cancer lacking pathologic complete response to standard-of-care neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Combining radiosensitizing capecitabine concurrent with radiation may further improve disease control, although the feasibility and tolerability of chemoradiation in this setting is unknown. This study aimed to determine the feasibility of this combination. Secondary objectives included the effect of chemoradiation on physician-reported toxicity, patient-reported skin dermatitis, and patient-reported quality of life compared with patients with breast cancer treated with adjuvant radiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Twenty patients with residual disease following standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled in a prospective single-arm trial and treated with adjuvant capecitabine-based chemoradiation. Feasibility was defined as ≥75% of patients completing chemoradiation as planned. Toxicity was assessed using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 5.0 and the patient-reported radiation-induced skin reaction scale. Quality of life was measured using the RAND Short-Form 36-Item Health Survey. RESULTS: Eighteen patients (90%) completed chemoradiation without interruption or dose reduction. The incidence of grade ≥3 radiation dermatitis was 5% (1 of 20 patients). Patient-reported radiation dermatitis did not show a clinically meaningful difference following chemoradiation (mean increase, 55 points) compared with published reports of patients with breast cancer treated with adjuvant radiation alone (mean increase, 47 points). On the other hand, patient-reported quality of life demonstrated a clinically meaningful decline at the end of chemoradiation (mean, 46; SD, 7) compared with the reference population of patients treated with adjuvant radiation alone (mean, 50; SD, 6). CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvant chemoradiation with capecitabine is feasible and tolerable in patients with breast cancer. Although current studies using adjuvant capecitabine for residual disease following neoadjuvant chemotherapy have specified sequential treatment of capecitabine and radiation, these results support the conduct of randomized trials in this setting to investigate the efficacy of concurrent radiation with capecitabine and provide patient-reported toxicity estimates for trial design.

Increasing Power in Phase III Oncology Trials With Multivariable Regression: An Empirical Assessment of 535 Primary End Point Analyses.

PURPOSE: A previous study demonstrated that power against the (unobserved) true effect for the primary end point (PEP) of most phase III oncology trials is low, suggesting an increased risk of false-negative findings in the field of late-phase oncology. Fitting models with prognostic covariates is a potential solution to improve power; however, the extent to which trials leverage this approach, and its impact on trial interpretation at scale, is unknown. To that end, we hypothesized that phase III trials using multivariable PEP analyses are more likely to demonstrate superiority versus trials with univariable analyses. METHODS: PEP analyses were reviewed from trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated by logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of the 535 trials enrolling 454,824 patients, 69% (n = 368) used a multivariable PEP analysis. Trials with multivariable PEP analyses were more likely to demonstrate PEP superiority (57% [209 of 368] v 42% [70 of 167]; aOR, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.18 to 2.72]; P = .007). Among trials with a multivariable PEP model, 16 conditioned on covariates and 352 stratified by covariates. However, 108 (35%) of 312 trials with stratified analyses lost power by categorizing a continuous variable, which was especially common among immunotherapy trials (aOR, 2.45 [95% CI, 1.23 to 4.92]; P = .01). CONCLUSION: Trials increasing power by fitting multivariable models were more likely to demonstrate PEP superiority than trials with unadjusted analysis. Underutilization of conditioning models and empirical power loss associated with covariate categorization required by stratification were identified as barriers to power gains. These findings underscore the opportunity to increase power in phase III trials with conventional methodology and improve patient access to effective novel therapies.

Bayesian Interim Analysis and Efficiency of Phase III Randomized Trials.

IMPORTANCE: Improving the efficiency of interim assessments in phase III trials should reduce trial costs, hasten the approval of efficacious therapies, and mitigate patient exposure to disadvantageous randomizations. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that in silico Bayesian early stopping rules improve the efficiency of phase III trials compared with the original frequentist analysis without compromising overall interpretation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: 230 randomized phase III oncology trials enrolling 184,752 participants. PARTICIPANTS: Individual patient-level data were manually reconstructed from primary endpoint Kaplan-Meier curves. INTERVENTIONS: Trial accruals were simulated 100 times per trial and leveraged published patient outcomes such that only the accrual dynamics, and not the patient outcomes, were randomly varied. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Early stopping was triggered per simulation if interim analysis demonstrated ≥ 85% probability of minimum clinically important difference/3 for efficacy or futility. Trial-level early closure was defined by stopping frequencies ≥ 0.75. RESULTS: A total of 12,451 simulations (54%) met early stopping criteria. Trial-level early stopping frequency was highly predictive of the published outcome (OR, 7.24; posterior probability of association, >99.99%; AUC, 0.91; P < 0.0001). Trial-level early closure was recommended for 82 trials (36%), including 62 trials (76%) which had performed frequentist interim analysis. Bayesian early stopping rules were 96% sensitive (95% CI, 91% to 98%) for detecting trials with a primary endpoint difference, and there was a high level of agreement in overall trial interpretation (Bayesian Cohen's κ, 0.95; 95% CrI, 0.92 to 0.99). However, Bayesian interim analysis was associated with >99.99% posterior probability of reducing patient enrollment requirements ( P < 0.0001), with an estimated cumulative enrollment reduction of 20,543 patients (11%; 89 patients averaged equally over all studied trials) and an estimated cumulative cost savings of 851 million USD (3.7 million USD averaged equally over all studied trials). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Bayesian interim analyses may improve randomized trial efficiency by reducing enrollment requirements without compromising trial interpretation. Increased utilization of Bayesian interim analysis has the potential to reduce costs of late-phase trials, reduce patient exposures to ineffective therapies, and accelerate approvals of effective therapies. KEY POINTS: Question: What are the effects of Bayesian early stopping rules on the efficiency of phase III randomized oncology trials?Findings: Individual-patient level outcomes were reconstructed for 184,752 patients from 230 trials. Compared with the original interim analysis strategy, in silico Bayesian interim analysis reduced patient enrollment requirements and preserved the original trial interpretation. Meaning: Bayesian interim analysis may improve the efficiency of conducting randomized trials, leading to reduced costs, reduced exposure of patients to disadvantageous treatments, and accelerated approval of efficacious therapies.

Differential Treatment Effects of Subgroup Analyses in Phase 3 Oncology Trials From 2004 to 2020.

Importance: Subgroup analyses are often performed in oncology to investigate differential treatment effects and may even constitute the basis for regulatory approvals. Current understanding of the features, results, and quality of subgroup analyses is limited. Objective: To evaluate forest plot interpretability and credibility of differential treatment effect claims among oncology trials. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included randomized phase 3 clinical oncology trials published prior to 2021. Trials were screened from ClinicalTrials.gov. Main Outcomes and Measures: Missing visual elements in forest plots were defined as a missing point estimate or use of a linear x-axis scale for hazard and odds ratios. Multiplicity of testing control was recorded. Differential treatment effect claims were rated using the Instrument for Assessing the Credibility of Effect Modification Analyses. Linear and logistic regressions evaluated associations with outcomes. Results: Among 785 trials, 379 studies (48%) enrolling 331 653 patients reported a subgroup analysis. The forest plots of 43% of trials (156 of 363) were missing visual elements impeding interpretability. While 4148 subgroup effects were evaluated, only 1 trial (0.3%) controlled for multiple testing. On average, trials that did not meet the primary end point conducted 2 more subgroup effect tests compared with trials meeting the primary end point (95% CI, 0.59-3.43 tests; P = .006). A total of 101 differential treatment effects were claimed across 15% of trials (55 of 379). Interaction testing was missing in 53% of trials (29 of 55) claiming differential treatment effects. Trials not meeting the primary end point were associated with greater odds of no interaction testing (odds ratio, 4.47; 95% CI, 1.42-15.55, P = .01). The credibility of differential treatment effect claims was rated as low or very low in 93% of cases (94 of 101). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of phase 3 oncology trials, nearly half of trials presented a subgroup analysis in their primary publication. However, forest plots of these subgroup analyses largely lacked essential features for interpretation, and most differential treatment effect claims were not supported. Oncology subgroup analyses should be interpreted with caution, and improvements to the quality of subgroup analyses are needed.

Proportional Hazards Violations in Phase 3 Cancer Clinical Trials: A Potential Source of Trial Misinterpretation.

BACKGROUND: Survival analyses of novel agents with long-term responders often exhibit differential hazard rates over time. Such proportional hazards violations (PHVs) may reduce the power of the log-rank test and lead to misinterpretation of trial results. We aimed to characterize the incidence and study attributes associated with PHVs in phase 3 oncology trials and assess the utility of restricted mean survival time (RMST) and MaxCombo as additional analyses. METHODS: Clinicaltrials.gov and PubMed were searched to identify 2-arm, randomized, phase 3 superiority-design cancer trials with time-to-event primary endpoints and published results through 2020. Patient-level data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves. PHVs were assessed using Schoenfeld residuals. RESULTS: Three hundred fifty-seven Kaplan-Meier comparisons across 341 trials were analyzed, encompassing 292,831 enrolled patients. PHVs were identified in 85/357 (23.8%; 95%CI 19.7%, 28.5%) comparisons. In multivariable analysis, non-OS endpoints (odds ratio [OR] 2.16 [95%CI 1.21, 3.87]; P=.009) were associated with higher odds of PHVs, and immunotherapy comparisons (OR 1.94 [95%CI 0.98, 3.86]; P=.058) were weakly suggestive of higher odds of PHVs. Few trials with PHVs (25/85, 29.4%) pre-specified a statistical plan to account for PHVs. Fourteen trials with PHVs exhibited discordant statistical signals with RMST or MaxCombo, of which ten (71%) reported negative results. CONCLUSION: PHVs are common across therapy types, and attempts to account for PHVs in statistical design are lacking despite the potential for results exhibiting non-proportional hazards to be misinterpreted.

Towards Treatment Effect Interpretability: A Bayesian Re-analysis of 194,129 Patient Outcomes Across 230 Oncology Trials.

Most oncology trials define superiority of an experimental therapy compared to a control therapy according to frequentist significance thresholds, which are widely misinterpreted. Posterior probability distributions computed by Bayesian inference may be more intuitive measures of uncertainty, particularly for measures of clinical benefit such as the minimum clinically important difference (MCID). Here, we manually reconstructed 194,129 individual patient-level outcomes across 230 phase III, superiority-design, oncology trials. Posteriors were calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling using standard priors. All trials interpreted as positive had probabilities > 90% for marginal benefits (HR < 1). However, 38% of positive trials had ≤ 90% probabilities of achieving the MCID (HR < 0.8), even under an enthusiastic prior. A subgroup analysis of 82 trials that led to regulatory approval showed 30% had ≤ 90% probability for meeting the MCID under an enthusiastic prior. Conversely, 24% of negative trials had > 90% probability of achieving marginal benefits, even under a skeptical prior, including 12 trials with a primary endpoint of overall survival. Lastly, a phase III oncology-specific prior from a previous work, which uses published summary statistics rather than reconstructed data to compute posteriors, validated the individual patient-level data findings. Taken together, these results suggest that Bayesian models add considerable unique interpretative value to phase III oncology trials and provide a robust solution for overcoming the discrepancies between refuting the null hypothesis and obtaining a MCID.

Secondary Endpoint Utilization and Publication Rate among Phase III Oncology Trials.

Secondary endpoints (SEP) provide crucial information in the interpretation of clinical trials, but their features are not yet well understood. Thus, we sought to empirically characterize the scope and publication rate of SEPs among late-phase oncology trials. We assessed SEPs for each randomized, published phase III oncology trial across all publications and ClinicalTrials.gov, performing logistic regressions to evaluate associations between trial characteristics and SEP publication rates. After screening, a total of 280 trials enrolling 244,576 patients and containing 2,562 SEPs met the inclusion criteria. Only 22% of trials (62/280) listed all SEPs consistently between ClinicalTrials.gov and the trial protocol. The absolute number of SEPs per trial increased over time, and trials sponsored by industry had a greater number of SEPs (median 9 vs. 5 SEPs per trial; P < 0.0001). In total, 69% of SEPs (1,770/2,562) were published. The publication rate significantly varied by SEP category [X2 (5, N = 2,562) = 245.86; P < 0.001]. SEPs that place the most burden on patients, such as patient-reported outcomes and translational correlatives, were published at 63% (246/393) and 44% (39/88), respectively. Trials with more SEPs were associated with lower overall SEP publication rates. Overall, our findings are that SEP publication rates in late-phase oncology trials are highly variable based on the type of SEP. To avoid undue burden on patients and promote transparency of findings, trialists should weigh the biological and clinical relevance of each SEP together with its feasibility at the time of trial design. SIGNIFICANCE: In this investigation, we characterized the utilization and publication rates of SEPs among late-phase oncology trials. Our results draw attention to the proliferation of SEPs in recent years. Although overall publication rates were high, underpublication was detected among endpoints that may increase patient burden (such as translational correlatives and patient-reported outcomes).

Association of differential censoring with survival and suboptimal control arms among oncology clinical trials.

Differential censoring, which refers to censoring imbalance between treatment arms, may bias the interpretation of survival outcomes in clinical trials. In 146 phase III oncology trials with statistically significant time-to-event surrogate primary endpoints, we evaluated the association between differential censoring in the surrogate primary endpoints, control arm adequacy, and the subsequent statistical significance of overall survival results. Twenty-four (16%) trials exhibited differential censoring that favored the control arm, whereas 15 (10%) exhibited differential censoring that favored the experimental arm. Positive overall survival was more common in control arm differential censoring trials (63%) than in trials without differential censoring (37%) or with experimental arm differential censoring (47%; odds ratio = 2.64, 95% confidence interval = 1.10 to 7.20; P = .04). Control arm differential censoring trials more frequently used suboptimal control arms at 46% compared with 20% without differential censoring and 13% with experimental arm differential censoring (odds ratio = 3.60, 95% confidence interval = 1.29 to 10.0; P = .007). The presence of control arm differential censoring in trials with surrogate primary endpoints, especially in those with overall survival conversion, may indicate an inadequate control arm and should be examined and explained.

Genomic and epigenomic analysis of plasma cell-free DNA identifies stemness features associated with worse survival in lethal prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: Metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) resistant to androgen receptor signaling inhibitors (ARSIs) is often lethal. Liquid biopsy biomarkers for this deadly form of disease remain under investigation, and underpinning mechanisms remain ill-understood. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We applied targeted cell-free DNA sequencing to 126 mCRPC patients from three academic cancer centers, and separately performed genome-wide cell-free DNA methylation sequencing on 43 plasma samples collected prior to the initiation of first-line ARSI treatment. To analyze the genome-wide sequencing data, we performed nucleosome-positioning and differential methylated region analysis. We additionally analyzed single-cell and bulk RNA sequencing data from 14 and 80 mCRPC patients, respectively, to develop and validate a stem-like signature, which we inferred from cell-free DNA. RESULTS: Targeted cell-free DNA sequencing detected AR/enhancer alterations prior to first-line ARSIs which correlated with significantly worse PFS (p = 0.01; HR = 2.12) and OS (p = 0.02; HR = 2.48). Plasma methylome analysis revealed that AR/enhancer lethal mCRPC patients have significantly higher promoter-level hypomethylation than AR/enhancer wild-type mCRPC patients (p < 0.0001). Moreover, gene ontology and CytoTRACE analysis of nucleosomally more accessible transcription factors in cell-free DNA revealed enrichment for stemness-associated transcription factors in lethal mCRPC patients. The resulting stemness signature was then validated in a completely held-out cohort of 80 mCRPC patients profiled by tumor RNA sequencing. CONCLUSIONS: We analyzed a total of 220 mCRPC patients, validated the importance of cell-free AR/enhancer alterations as a prognostic biomarker in lethal mCRPC and showed that the underlying mechanism for lethality involves reprogramming developmental states toward increased stemness.

Addition of Metastasis-Directed Therapy to Systemic Therapy for Oligometastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (EXTEND): A Multicenter, Randomized Phase II Trial.

PURPOSE: The EXTEND trial tested the hypothesis that adding comprehensive metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) to chemotherapy would improve progression-free survival (PFS) over chemotherapy alone among patients with oligometastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). METHODS: EXTEND (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03599765) is a multicenter, phase II basket trial randomly assigning patients with ≤five metastases 1:1 to MDT plus systemic therapy versus systemic therapy. Disease progression was defined by radiologic criteria (RECIST v1.1), clinical progression, or death. The primary end point was PFS in the per-protocol population, evaluated after all patients achieved at least 6 months of follow-up. Exploratory end points included systemic immune response measures. RESULTS: Between March 19, 2019, and February 13, 2023, 41 patients were randomly assigned and 40 were eligible for the primary analysis of PFS (19 patients in the MDT arm; 21 patients in the control arm). At a median follow-up time of 17 months, the median PFS time was 10.3 months (95% CI, 4.6 to 14.0) in the MDT arm versus 2.5 months (95% CI, 1.7 to 5.1) in the control arm. PFS was significantly improved by the addition of MDT to systemic therapy (P = .030 for stratified log-rank test) with a hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.94). No grade ≥3 or greater adverse events related to MDT were observed. Systemic immune activation events were associated with MDT and correlated with improved PFS. CONCLUSION: This study supports the addition of MDT to systemic therapy for patients with oligometastatic PDAC. Induction of systemic immunity is a possible mechanism of benefit. These results warrant confirmatory trials to refine treatment strategy and provide external validation.

Challenges, Complexities, and Considerations in the Design and Interpretation of Late-Phase Oncology Trials.

Optimal management of cancer patients relies heavily on late-phase oncology randomized controlled trials. A comprehensive understanding of the key considerations in designing and interpreting late-phase trials is crucial for improving subsequent trial design, execution, and clinical decision-making. In this review, we explore important aspects of late-phase oncology trial design. We begin by examining the selection of primary endpoints, including the advantages and disadvantages of using surrogate endpoints. We address the challenges involved in assessing tumor progression and discuss strategies to mitigate bias. We define informative censoring bias and its impact on trial results, including illustrative examples of scenarios that may lead to informative censoring. We highlight the traditional roles of the log-rank test and hazard ratio in survival analyses, along with their limitations in the presence of nonproportional hazards as well as an introduction to alternative survival estimands, such as restricted mean survival time or MaxCombo. We emphasize the distinctions between the design and interpretation of superiority and noninferiority trials, and compare Bayesian and frequentist statistical approaches. Finally, we discuss appropriate utilization of phase II and phase III trial results in shaping clinical management recommendations and evaluate the inherent risks and benefits associated with relying on phase II data for treatment decisions.

Prevalence and implications of significance testing for baseline covariate imbalance in randomised cancer clinical trials: The Table 1 Fallacy.

BACKGROUND: The 'Table 1 Fallacy' refers to the unsound use of significance testing for comparing the distributions of baseline variables between randomised groups to draw erroneous conclusions about balance or imbalance. We performed a cross-sectional study of the Table 1 Fallacy in phase III oncology trials. METHODS: From ClinicalTrials.gov, 1877 randomised trials were screened. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated predictors of the Table 1 Fallacy. RESULTS: A total of 765 randomised controlled trials involving 553,405 patients were analysed. The Table 1 Fallacy was observed in 25% of trials (188 of 765), with 3% of comparisons deemed significant (59 of 2353), approximating the typical 5% type I error assertion probability. Application of trial-level multiplicity corrections reduced the rate of significant findings to 0.3% (six of 2345 tests). Factors associated with lower odds of the Table 1 Fallacy included industry sponsorship (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.18-0.47; multiplicity-corrected P < 0.0001), larger trial size (≥795 versus <280 patients; aOR 0.32, 95% CI 0.19-0.53; multiplicity-corrected P = 0.0008), and publication in a European versus American journal (aOR 0.06, 95% CI 0.03-0.13; multiplicity-corrected P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the persistence of the Table 1 Fallacy in contemporary oncology randomised controlled trials, with one of every four trials testing for baseline differences after randomisation. Significance testing is a suboptimal method for identifying unsound randomisation procedures and may encourage misleading inferences. Journal-level enforcement is a possible strategy to help mitigate this fallacy.