Development of Microbiome Biomarkers in Intervention Studies.

AIMS: There has been an increased interest in studying the association between microbial communities and different diseases and in discovering microbiome biomarkers. This association is pivotal to discover such biomarkers. In this paper, we present a unified modelling approach that can be used to detect and develop microbiome biomarkers for different clinical responses of interest at different levels of the microbiome ecosystem. METHODS AND RESULTS: We extended the methodology rooted in the information theory and joint modelling approaches for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials to the high-dimensional microbiome setting. The unified modelling approach introduced in this paper allows for detecting biomarkers associated with a clinical response of interest, adjusting for the intervention applied to the subjects. For some microbiome features, the association is driven by the treatment, while for others, the association reflects the correlation between the microbiome biomarker and the clinical response of interest. CONCLUSIONS: The results have demonstrated that biomarkers can be identified at different levels of the microbiome phylogenetic tree using various measures as biomarkers.

Modelling trends of CD4 counts for patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART): a comprehensive health care clinic in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, changes in CD4 counts constitute an important component in patient monitoring and evaluation of treatment response as these patients do not have access to routine viral load testing. In this study, we quantified trends on CD4 counts in patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in a comprehensive health care clinic in Kenya between 2011 and 2017. We evaluated the rate of change in CD4 cell count in response to antiretroviral treatment. We further assessed factors that influenced time to treatment change focusing on baseline characteristics of the patients and different initial drug regimens used. This was a retrospective study involving 432 naïve HIV patients that had at least two CD4 count measurements for the period. The relationship between CD4 cell count and time was modeled using a semi parametric mixed effects model while the Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess factors associated with the first regimen change. RESULTS: Majority of the patients were females and the average CD4 count at start of treatment was 362.1 [Formula: see text]. The CD4 count measurements increased nonlinearly over time and these trends were similar regardless of the treatment regimen administered to the patients. The change of logarithm CD4 cell count rises fast for in the first 450 days of antiretroviral initiation. The average time to first regimen change was 2142 days. Tenoforvir (TDF) based regimens had a lower drug substitution(aHR 0.2682, 95% CI:0.08263- 0.8706) compared to Zidovudine(AZT). CONCLUSION: The backbone used was found to be associated with regimen changes among the patients with fewer switches being observed, with the use of TDF when compared to AZT. There was however no significant difference between TDF and AZT in terms of the rate of change in logarithm CD4 count over time.

Short-term real-time prediction of total number of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths in South Africa: a data driven approach.

BACKGROUND: The rising burden of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa has motivated the application of modeling strategies to predict the COVID-19 cases and deaths. Reliable and accurate short and long-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, both at the national and provincial level, are a key aspect of the strategy to handle the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. METHODS: In this paper we apply the previously validated approach of phenomenological models, fitting several non-linear growth curves (Richards, 3 and 4 parameter logistic, Weibull and Gompertz), to produce short term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths at the national level as well as the provincial level. Using publicly available daily reported cumulative case and death data up until 22 June 2020, we report 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30-day ahead forecasts of cumulative cases and deaths. All predictions are compared to the actual observed values in the forecasting period. RESULTS: We observed that all models for cases provided accurate and similar short-term forecasts for a period of 5 days ahead at the national level, and that the three and four parameter logistic growth models provided more accurate forecasts than that obtained from the Richards model 10 days ahead. However, beyond 10 days all models underestimated the cumulative cases. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 23,551-26,702 cases in 5 days and an additional 47,449-57,358 cases in 10 days. While the three parameter logistic growth model provided the most accurate forecasts of cumulative deaths within the 10 day period, the Gompertz model was able to better capture the changes in cumulative deaths beyond this period. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 145-437 COVID-19 deaths in 5 days and an additional 243-947 deaths in 10 days. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing both the predictions of deaths and cases to the observed data in the forecasting period, we found that this modeling approach provides reliable and accurate forecasts for a maximum period of 10 days ahead.

Informal mhealth at scale in Africa: Opportunities and challenges.

The extraordinary global growth of digital connectivity has generated optimism that mobile technologies can help overcome infrastructural barriers to development, with 'mobile health' (mhealth) being a key component of this. However, while 'formal' (top-down) mhealth programmes continue to face challenges of scalability and sustainability, we know relatively little about how health-workers are using their own mobile phones informally in their work. Using data from Ghana, Ethiopia and Malawi, we document the reach, nature and perceived impacts of community health-workers' (CHWs') 'informal mhealth' practices, and ask how equitably these are distributed. We implemented a mixed-methods study, combining surveys of CHWs across the three countries, using multi-stage proportional-to-size sampling (N = 2197 total), with qualitative research (interviews and focus groups with CHWs, clients and higher-level stake-holders). Survey data were weighted to produce nationally- or regionally-representative samples for multivariate analysis; comparative thematic analysis was used for qualitative data. Our findings confirm the limited reach of 'formal' compared with 'informal' mhealth: while only 15% of CHWs surveyed were using formal mhealth applications, over 97% reported regularly using a personal mobile phone for work-related purposes in a range of innovative ways. CHWs and clients expressed unequivocally enthusiastic views about the perceived impacts of this 'informal health' usage. However, they also identified very real practical challenges, financial burdens and other threats to personal wellbeing; these appear to be borne disproportionately by the lowest-paid cadre of health-workers, especially those serving rural areas. Unlike previous small-scale, qualitative studies, our work has shown that informal mhealth is already happening at scale, far outstripping its formal equivalent. Policy-makers need to engage seriously with this emergent health system, and to work closely with those on the ground to address sources of inequity, without undermining existing good practice.

A multivariate linear model for investigating the association between gene-module co-expression and a continuous covariate.

A way to enhance our understanding of the development and progression of complex diseases is to investigate the influence of cellular environments on gene co-expression (i.e. gene-pair correlations). Often, changes in gene co-expression are investigated across two or more biological conditions defined by categorizing a continuous covariate. However, the selection of arbitrary cut-off points may have an influence on the results of an analysis. To address this issue, we use a general linear model (GLM) for correlated data to study the relationship between gene-module co-expression and a covariate like metabolite concentration. The GLM specifies the gene-pair correlations as a function of the continuous covariate. The use of the GLM allows for investigating different (linear and non-linear) patterns of co-expression. Furthermore, the modeling approach offers a formal framework for testing hypotheses about possible patterns of co-expression. In our paper, a simulation study is used to assess the performance of the GLM. The performance is compared with that of a previously proposed GLM that utilizes categorized covariates. The versatility of the model is illustrated by using a real-life example. We discuss the theoretical issues related to the construction of the test statistics and the computational challenges related to fitting of the proposed model.

High dimensional surrogacy: computational aspects of an upscaled analysis.

Identification of genomic biomarkers is an important area of research in the context of drug discovery experiments. These experiments typically consist of several high dimensional datasets that contain information about a set of drugs (compounds) under development. This type of data structure introduces the challenge of multi-source data integration. High-Performance Computing (HPC) has become an important tool for everyday research tasks. In the context of drug discovery, high dimensional multi-source data needs to be analyzed to identify the biological pathways related to the new set of drugs under development. In order to process all information contained in the datasets, HPC techniques are required. Even though R packages for parallel computing are available, they are not optimized for a specific setting and data structure. In this article, we propose a new framework, for data analysis, to use R in a computer cluster. The proposed data analysis workflow is applied to a multi-source high dimensional drug discovery dataset and compared with a few existing R packages for parallel computing.

A random effects model for the identification of differential splicing (REIDS) using exon and HTA arrays.

BACKGROUND: Alternative gene splicing is a common phenomenon in which a single gene gives rise to multiple transcript isoforms. The process is strictly guided and involves a multitude of proteins and regulatory complexes. Unfortunately, aberrant splicing events do occur which have been linked to genetic disorders, such as several types of cancer and neurodegenerative diseases (Fan et al., Theor Biol Med Model 3:19, 2006). Therefore, understanding the mechanism of alternative splicing and identifying the difference in splicing events between diseased and healthy tissue is crucial in biomedical research with the potential of applications in personalized medicine as well as in drug development. RESULTS: We propose a linear mixed model, Random Effects for the Identification of Differential Splicing (REIDS), for the identification of alternative splicing events. Based on a set of scores, an exon score and an array score, a decision regarding alternative splicing can be made. The model enables the ability to distinguish a differential expressed gene from a differential spliced exon. The proposed model was applied to three case studies concerning both exon and HTA arrays. CONCLUSION: The REIDS model provides a work flow for the identification of alternative splicing events relying on the established linear mixed model. The model can be applied to different types of arrays.

A joint modeling approach for uncovering associations between gene expression, bioactivity and chemical structure in early drug discovery to guide lead selection and genomic biomarker development.

The modern drug discovery process involves multiple sources of high-dimensional data. This imposes the challenge of data integration. A typical example is the integration of chemical structure (fingerprint features), phenotypic bioactivity (bioassay read-outs) data for targets of interest, and transcriptomic (gene expression) data in early drug discovery to better understand the chemical and biological mechanisms of candidate drugs, and to facilitate early detection of safety issues prior to later and expensive phases of drug development cycles. In this paper, we discuss a joint model for the transcriptomic and the phenotypic variables conditioned on the chemical structure. This modeling approach can be used to uncover, for a given set of compounds, the association between gene expression and biological activity taking into account the influence of the chemical structure of the compound on both variables. The model allows to detect genes that are associated with the bioactivity data facilitating the identification of potential genomic biomarkers for compounds efficacy. In addition, the effect of every structural feature on both genes and pIC50 and their associations can be simultaneously investigated. Two oncology projects are used to illustrate the applicability and usefulness of the joint model to integrate multi-source high-dimensional information to aid drug discovery.

Multi-state models for the analysis of time-to-treatment modification among HIV patients under highly active antiretroviral therapy in Southwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has shown a dramatic change in controlling the burden of HIV/AIDS. However, the new challenge of HAART is to allow long-term sustainability. Toxicities, comorbidity, pregnancy, and treatment failure, among others, would result in frequent initial HAART regimen change. The aim of this study was to evaluate the durability of first line antiretroviral therapy and to assess the causes of initial highly active antiretroviral therapeutic regimen changes among patients on HAART. METHODS: A Hospital based retrospective study was conducted from January 2007 to August 2013 at Jimma University Hospital, Southwest Ethiopia. Data on the prescribed ARV along with start date, switching date, and reason for change was collected. The primary outcome was defined as the time-to-treatment change. We adopted a multi-state survival modeling approach assuming each treatment regimen as state. We estimate the transition probability of patients to move from one regimen to another. RESULT: A total of 1284 ART naive patients were included in the study. Almost half of the patients (41.2%) changed their treatment during follow up for various reasons; 442 (34.4%) changed once and 86 (6.69%) changed more than once. Toxicity was the most common reason for treatment changes accounting for 48.94% of the changes, followed by comorbidity (New TB) 14.31%. The HAART combinations that were robust to treatment changes were tenofovir (TDF) + lamivudine (3TC)+ efavirenz (EFV), tenofovir + lamivudine (3TC) + nevirapine (NVP) and zidovudine (AZT) + lamivudine (3TC) + nevirapine (NVP) with 3.6%, 4.5% and 11% treatment changes, respectively. CONCLUSION: Moving away from drugs with poor safety profiles, such as stavudine(d4T), could reduce modification rates and this would improve regimen tolerability, while preserving future treatment options.

Identification of the minimum effective dose for normally distributed data using a Bayesian variable selection approach.

The identification of the minimum effective dose is of high importance in the drug development process. In early stage screening experiments, establishing the minimum effective dose can be translated into a model selection based on information criteria. The presented alternative, Bayesian variable selection approach, allows for selection of the minimum effective dose, while taking into account model uncertainty. The performance of Bayesian variable selection is compared with the generalized order restricted information criterion on two dose-response experiments and through the simulations study. Which method has performed better depends on the complexity of the underlying model and the effect size relative to noise.

Multiple confidence intervals for selected parameters adjusted for the false coverage rate in monotone dose-response microarray experiments.

Benjamini and Yekutieli () introduced the concept of the false coverage-statement rate (FCR) to account for selection when the confidence intervals (CIs) are constructed only for the selected parameters. Dose-response analysis in dose-response microarray experiments is conducted only for genes having monotone dose-response relationship, which is a selection problem. In this paper, we consider multiple CIs for the mean gene expression difference between the highest dose and control in monotone dose-response microarray experiments for selected parameters adjusted for the FCR. A simulation study is conducted to study the performance of the method proposed. The method is applied to a real dose-response microarray experiment with 16, 998 genes for illustration.

Identification of in vitro and in vivo disconnects using transcriptomic data.

BACKGROUND: Integrating transcriptomic experiments within drug development is increasingly advocated for the early detection of toxicity. This is partly to reduce costs related to drug failures in the late, and expensive phases of clinical trials. Such an approach has proven useful both in the study of toxicology and carcinogenicity. However, general lack of translation of in vitro findings to in vivo systems remains one of the bottle necks in drug development. This paper proposes a method for identifying disconnected genes between in vitro and in vivo toxicogenomic rat experiments. The analytical framework is based on the joint modeling of dose-dependent in vitro and in vivo data using a fractional polynomial framework and biclustering algorithm. RESULTS: Most disconnected genes identified belonged to known pathways, such as drug metabolism and oxidative stress due to reactive metabolites, bilirubin increase, glutathion depletion and phospholipidosis. We also identified compounds that were likely to induce disconnect in gene expression between in vitro and in vivo toxicogenomic rat experiments. These compounds include: sulindac and diclofenac (both linked to liver damage), naphtyl isothiocyanate (linked to hepatoxocity), indomethacin and naproxen (linked to gastrointestinal problem and damage of intestines). CONCLUSION: The results confirmed that there are important discrepancies between in vitro and in vivo toxicogenomic experiments. However, the contribution of this paper is to provide a tool to identify genes that are disconnected between the two systems. Pathway analysis of disconnected genes may improve our understanding of uncertainties in the mechanism of actions of drug candidates in humans, especially concerning the early detection of toxicity.

Maternal perceived stress and green spaces during pregnancy are associated with adult offspring gene (NR3C1 and IGF2/H19) methylation patterns in adulthood: A pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Changes in NR3C1 and IGF2/H19 methylation patterns have been associated with behavioural and psychiatric outcomes. Maternal mental state has been associated with offspring NR3C1 promotor and IGF2/H19 imprinting control region (ICR) methylation patterns. However, there is a lack of prospective studies with long-term follow-up. METHODS: 52 mother-offspring pairs were studied from 12 to 22 weeks of pregnancy and offspring was followed-up until 28-29 years-of-age. During pregnancy, mothers filled in a Life Event Scale and a Daily Hassles Scale measuring perceived stress; i.e., appraisal or subjectively experienced severity of impact of important life events and of daily hassles in several life domains during pregnancy, respectively. Green space was quantified around the residence, using high-resolution (1 m2) map data. Saliva and blood samples were obtained from the adult offspring. Absolute DNA methylation levels were determined in blood and saliva on four NR3C1 amplicons, and one IGF2/H19 ICR amplicon using a bisulfite PCR and sequencing method. Linear mixed effect models were used to test the associations between perceived stress and green spaces during pregnancy, and adult offspring methylation patterns. RESULTS: We found associations between maternal perceived stress during pregnancy and methylation patterns on two out of the four NR3C1 amplicons, measured in blood, from offspring in adulthood, but not with IGF2/H19 methylation. For an interquartile-range (IQR) increase in maternal perceived life event or daily hassles stress scores, absolute methylation levels on several NR3C1 CpG sites were significantly changed (-1.62 % to +5.89 %, p<0.05). Maternal perceived stress scores were not associated with IGF2/H19 methylation, neither in blood nor in saliva. Maternal exposure to green spaces surrounding the residence during the pregnancy was associated with IGF2/H19 ICR methylation (-0.80 % to -1.04 %, p<0.05) in saliva, but not with NR3C1 promotor methylation. CONCLUSION: We observed significant long-term effects of maternal perceived stress during pregnancy on the methylation patterns of the NR3C1 promotor in offspring well into adulthood. This may imply that maternal psychological distress during pregnancy may influence the regulation of the HPA-axis well into adulthood. Additionally, maternal proximity to green spaces was associated with IGF2/H19 ICR methylation patterns, which is a novel finding.

Gene filtering in the analysis of Illumina microarray experiments.

Illumina bead arrays are microarrays that contain a random number of technical replicates (beads) for every probe (bead type) within the same array. Typically around 30 beads are placed at random positions on the array surface, which opens unique opportunities for quality control. Most preprocessing methods for Illumina bead arrays are ported from the Affymetrix microarray platform and ignore the availability of the technical replicates. The large number of beads for a particular bead type on the same array, however, should be highly correlated, otherwise they just measure noise and can be removed from the downstream analysis. Hence, filtering bead types can be considered as an important step of the preprocessing procedure for Illumina platform. This paper proposes a filtering method for Illumina bead arrays, which builds upon the mixed model framework. Bead types are called informative/non-informative (I/NI) based on a trade-off between within and between array variabilities. The method is illustrated on a publicly available Illumina Spike-in data set (Dunning et al., 2008) and we also show that filtering results in a more powerful analysis of differentially expressed genes.

Model-based estimates of long-term persistence of induced HPV antibodies: a flexible subject-specific approach.

In infectious diseases, it is important to predict the long-term persistence of vaccine-induced antibodies and to estimate the time points where the individual titers are below the threshold value for protection. This article focuses on HPV-16/18, and uses a so-called fractional-polynomial model to this effect, derived in a data-driven fashion. Initially, model selection was done from among the second- and first-order fractional polynomials on the one hand and from the linear mixed model on the other. According to a functional selection procedure, the first-order fractional polynomial was selected. Apart from the fractional polynomial model, we also fitted a power-law model, which is a special case of the fractional polynomial model. Both models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Over the observation period, the fractional polynomials fitted the data better than the power-law model; this, of course, does not imply that it fits best over the long run, and hence, caution ought to be used when prediction is of interest. Therefore, we point out that the persistence of the anti-HPV responses induced by these vaccines can only be ascertained empirically by long-term follow-up analysis.

Modeling the positive testing rate of COVID-19 in South Africa using a semi-parametric smoother for binomial data.

Identification and isolation of COVID-19 infected persons plays a significant role in the control of COVID-19 pandemic. A country's COVID-19 positive testing rate is useful in understanding and monitoring the disease transmission and spread for the planning of intervention policy. Using publicly available data collected between March 5th, 2020 and May 31st, 2021, we proposed to estimate both the positive testing rate and its daily rate of change in South Africa with a flexible semi-parametric smoothing model for discrete data. There was a gradual increase in the positive testing rate up to a first peak rate in July, 2020, then a decrease before another peak around mid-December 2020 to mid-January 2021. The proposed semi-parametric smoothing model provides a data driven estimates for both the positive testing rate and its change. We provide an online R dashboard that can be used to estimate the positive rate in any country of interest based on publicly available data. We believe this is a useful tool for both researchers and policymakers for planning intervention and understanding the COVID-19 spread.

The use of semiparametric mixed models to analyze PamChip(R) peptide array data: an application to an oncology experiment.

MOTIVATION: Phosphorylation by protein kinases is a central theme in biological systems. Aberrant protein kinase activity has been implicated in a variety of human diseases (e.g. cancer). Therefore, modulation of kinase activity represents an attractive therapeutic approach for the treatment of human illnesses. Thus, identification of signature peptides is crucial for protein kinase targeting and can be achieved by using PamChip(®) microarray technology. We propose a flexible semiparametric mixed model for analyzing PamChip(®) data. This approach enables the estimation of the phosphorylation rate (Velocity) as a function of time together with pointwise confidence intervals. RESULTS: Using a publicly available dataset, we show that our model is capable of adequately fitting the kinase activity profiles and provides velocity estimates over time. Moreover, it allows to test for differences in the velocity of kinase inhibition between responding and non-responding cell lines. This can be done at individual time point as well as for the entire velocity profile. CONTACT: pushpike@med.kuleuven.be SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Genomic biomarkers for a binary clinical outcome in early drug development microarray experiments.

In this article, we discuss methods to select three different types of genes (treatment related, response related, or both) and investigate whether they can serve as biomarkers for a binary outcome variable. We consider an extension of the joint model introduced by Lin et al. (2010) and Tilahun et al. (2010) for a continuous response. As the model has certain drawbacks in a binary setting, we also present a way to use classical selection methods to identify subgroups of genes, which are treatment and/or response related. We evaluate their potential to serve as biomarkers by applying DLDA to predict the response level.

FABIA: factor analysis for bicluster acquisition.

MOTIVATION: Biclustering of transcriptomic data groups genes and samples simultaneously. It is emerging as a standard tool for extracting knowledge from gene expression measurements. We propose a novel generative approach for biclustering called 'FABIA: Factor Analysis for Bicluster Acquisition'. FABIA is based on a multiplicative model, which accounts for linear dependencies between gene expression and conditions, and also captures heavy-tailed distributions as observed in real-world transcriptomic data. The generative framework allows to utilize well-founded model selection methods and to apply Bayesian techniques. RESULTS: On 100 simulated datasets with known true, artificially implanted biclusters, FABIA clearly outperformed all 11 competitors. On these datasets, FABIA was able to separate spurious biclusters from true biclusters by ranking biclusters according to their information content. FABIA was tested on three microarray datasets with known subclusters, where it was two times the best and once the second best method among the compared biclustering approaches. AVAILABILITY: FABIA is available as an R package on Bioconductor (http://www.bioconductor.org). All datasets, results and software are available at http://www.bioinf.jku.at/software/fabia/fabia.html. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Informative or noninformative calls for gene expression: a latent variable approach.

The strength and weakness of microarray technology can be attributed to the enormous amount of information it is generating. To fully enhance the benefit of microarray technology for testing differentially expressed genes and classification, there is a need to minimize the amount of irrelevant genes present in microarray data. A major interest is to use probe-level data to call genes informative or noninformative based on the trade-off between the array-to-array variability and the measurement error. Existing works in this direction include filtering likely uninformative sets of hybridization (FLUSH; Calza et al., 2007) and I/NI calls for the exclusion of noninformative genes using FARMS (I/NI calls; Talloen et al., 2007; Hochreiter et al., 2006). In this paper, we propose a linear mixed model as a more flexible method that performs equally good as I/NI calls and outperforms FLUSH. We also introduce other criteria for gene filtering, such as, R2 and intra-cluster correlation. Additionally, we include some objective criteria based on likelihood ratio testing, the Akaike information criteria (AIC; Akaike, 1973) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC; Schwarz, 1978 ). Based on the HGU-133A Spiked-in data set, it is shown that the linear mixed model approach outperforms FLUSH, a method that filters genes based on a quantile regression. The linear model is equivalent to a factor analysis model when either the factor loadings are set to a constant with the variance of the latent factor equal to one, or if the factor loadings are set to one together with unconstrained variance of the latent factor. Filtering based on conditional variance calls a probe set informative when the intensity of one or more probes is consistent across the arrays, while filtering using R2 or intra-cluster correlation calls a probe set informative only when average intensity of a probe set is consistent across the arrays. Filtering based on likelihood ratio test AIC and BIC are less stringent compared to the other criteria.