Global, regional, and subregional classification of abortions by safety, 2010-14: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model.

BACKGROUND: Global estimates of unsafe abortions have been produced for 1995, 2003, and 2008. However, reconceptualisation of the framework and methods for estimating abortion safety is needed owing to the increased availability of simple methods for safe abortion (eg, medical abortion), the increasingly widespread use of misoprostol outside formal health systems in contexts where abortion is legally restricted, and the need to account for the multiple factors that affect abortion safety. METHODS: We used all available empirical data on abortion methods, providers, and settings, and factors affecting safety as covariates within a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the global, regional, and subregional distributions of abortion by safety categories. We used a three-tiered categorisation based on the WHO definition of unsafe abortion and WHO guidelines on safe abortion to categorise abortions as safe or unsafe and to further divide unsafe abortions into two categories of less safe and least safe. FINDINGS: Of the 55·â€ˆ7 million abortions that occurred worldwide each year between 2010-14, we estimated that 30·6 million (54·9%, 90% uncertainty interval 49·9-59·4) were safe, 17·1 million (30·7%, 25·5-35·6) were less safe, and 8·0 million (14·4%, 11·5-18·1) were least safe. Thus, 25·1 million (45·1%, 40·6-50·1) abortions each year between 2010 and 2014 were unsafe, with 24·3 million (97%) of these in developing countries. The proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in developing countries than developed countries (49·5% vs 12·5%). When grouped by the legal status of abortion, the proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in countries with highly restrictive abortion laws than in those with less restrictive laws. INTERPRETATION: Increased efforts are needed, especially in developing countries, to ensure access to safe abortion. The paucity of empirical data is a limitation of these findings. Improved in-country data for health services and innovative research to address these gaps are needed to improve future estimates. FUNDING: UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction; David and Lucile Packard Foundation; UK Aid from the UK Government; Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation.

Abortion incidence between 1990 and 2014: global, regional, and subregional levels and trends.

BACKGROUND: Information about the incidence of induced abortion is needed to motivate and inform efforts to help women avoid unintended pregnancies and to monitor progress toward that end. We estimate subregional, regional, and global levels and trends in abortion incidence for 1990 to 2014, and abortion rates in subgroups of women. We use the results to estimate the proportion of pregnancies that end in abortion and examine whether abortion rates vary in countries grouped by the legal status of abortion. METHODS: We requested abortion data from government agencies and compiled data from international sources and nationally representative studies. With data for 1069 country-years, we estimated incidence using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the overall abortion rate is a function of the modelled rates in subgroups of women of reproductive age defined by their marital status and contraceptive need and use, and the sizes of these subgroups. FINDINGS: We estimated that 35 abortions (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 33 to 44) occurred annually per 1000 women aged 15-44 years worldwide in 2010-14, which was 5 points less than 40 (39-48) in 1990-94 (90% UI for decline -11 to 0). Because of population growth, the annual number of abortions worldwide increased by 5.9 million (90% UI -1.3 to 15.4), from 50.4 million in 1990-94 (48.6 to 59.9) to 56.3 million (52.4 to 70.0) in 2010-14. In the developed world, the abortion rate declined 19 points (-26 to -14), from 46 (41 to 59) to 27 (24 to 37). In the developing world, we found a non-significant 2 point decline (90% UI -9 to 4) in the rate from 39 (37 to 47) to 37 (34 to 46). Some 25% (90% UI 23 to 29) of pregnancies ended in abortion in 2010-14. Globally, 73% (90% UI 59 to 82) of abortions were obtained by married women in 2010-14 compared with 27% (18 to 41) obtained by unmarried women. We did not observe an association between the abortion rates for 2010-14 and the grounds under which abortion is legally allowed. INTERPRETATION: Abortion rates have declined significantly since 1990 in the developed world but not in the developing world. Ensuring access to sexual and reproductive health care could help millions of women avoid unintended pregnancies and ensure access to safe abortion. FUNDING: UK Government, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

Diversity and divergence: the dynamic burden of poor maternal health.

Maternal health is a big issue and is central to sustainable development. Each year, about 210 million women become pregnant and about 140 million newborn babies are delivered-the sheer scale of maternal health alone makes maternal well being and survival vital concerns. In this Series paper, we adopt primarily a numerical lens to illuminate patterns and trends in outcomes, but recognise that understanding of poor maternal health also warrants other perspectives, such as human rights. Our use of the best available evidence highlights the dynamic burden of maternal health problems. Increased diversity in the magnitude and causes of maternal mortality and morbidity between and within populations presents a major challenge to policies and programmes aiming to match varying needs with diverse types of care across different settings. This diversity, in turn, contributes to a widening gap or differences in levels of maternal mortality, seen most acutely in vulnerable populations, predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa. Strong political and technical commitment to improve equity-sensitive information systems is required to monitor the gap in maternal mortality, and robust research is needed to elucidate major interactions between the broad range of health problems. Diversity and divergence are defining characteristics of poor maternal health in the 21st century. Progress on this issue will be an ultimate judge of sustainable development.

Integrating multiple data sources in species distribution modeling: a framework for data fusion.

The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of species distribution models (SDMs) to characterize patterns of species' occurrence and abundance. Efforts to parameterize SDMs often create a tension between the quality and quantity of data available to fit models. Estimation methods that integrate both standardized and non-standardized data types offer a potential solution to the tradeoff between data quality and quantity. Recently several authors have developed approaches for jointly modeling two sources of data (one of high quality and one of lesser quality). We extend their work by allowing for explicit spatial autocorrelation in occurrence and detection error using a Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive (MVCAR) model and develop three models that share information in a less direct manner resulting in more robust performance when the auxiliary data is of lesser quality. We describe these three new approaches ("Shared," "Correlation," "Covariates") for combining data sources and show their use in a case study of the Brown-headed Nuthatch in the Southeastern U.S. and through simulations. All three of the approaches which used the second data source improved out-of-sample predictions relative to a single data source ("Single"). When information in the second data source is of high quality, the Shared model performs the best, but the Correlation and Covariates model also perform well. When the information quality in the second data source is of lesser quality, the Correlation and Covariates model performed better suggesting they are robust alternatives when little is known about auxiliary data collected opportunistically or through citizen scientists. Methods that allow for both data types to be used will maximize the useful information available for estimating species distributions.

The estimated incidence of induced abortion in Kenya: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The recently promulgated 2010 constitution of Kenya permits abortion when the life or health of the woman is in danger. Yet broad uncertainty remains about the interpretation of the law. Unsafe abortion remains a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in Kenya. The current study aimed to determine the incidence of induced abortion in Kenya in 2012. METHODS: The incidence of induced abortion in Kenya in 2012 was estimated using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology (AICM) along with the Prospective Morbidity Survey (PMS). Data were collected through three surveys, (i) Health Facilities Survey (HFS), (ii) Prospective Morbidity Survey (PMS), and (iii) Health Professionals Survey (HPS). A total of 328 facilities participated in the HFS, 326 participated in the PMS, and 124 key informants participated in the HPS. Abortion numbers, rates, ratios and unintended pregnancy rates were calculated for Kenya as a whole and for five geographical regions. RESULTS: In 2012, an estimated 464,000 induced abortions occurred in Kenya. This translates into an abortion rate of 48 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, and an abortion ratio of 30 per 100 live births. About 120,000 women received care for complications of induced abortion in health facilities. About half (49%) of all pregnancies in Kenya were unintended and 41% of unintended pregnancies ended in an abortion. CONCLUSION: This study provides the first nationally-representative estimates of the incidence of induced abortion in Kenya. An urgent need exists for improving facilities' capacity to provide safe abortion care to the fullest extent of the law. All efforts should be made to address underlying factors to reduce risk of unsafe abortion.

Trends in contraceptive need and use in developing countries in 2003, 2008, and 2012: an analysis of national surveys.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in contraceptive use and need are necessary to guide programme and policy decisions and to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5, which calls for universal access to contraceptive services. We therefore aimed to estimate trends in contraceptive use and unmet need in developing countries in 2003, 2008, and 2012 . METHODS: We obtained data from national surveys for married and unmarried women aged 15-49 years in regions and subregions of developing countries. We estimated trends in the numbers and proportions of women wanting to avoid pregnancy, according to whether they were using modern contraceptives, or had unmet need for modern methods (ie, using no methods or a traditional method). We used comparable data sources and methods for three reference years (2003, 2008, and 2012). National survey data were available for 81-98% of married women using and with unmet need for modern methods. FINDINGS: The number of women wanting to avoid pregnancy and therefore needing effective contraception increased substantially, from 716 million (54%) of 1321 million in 2003, to 827 million (57%) of 1448 million in 2008, to 867 million (57%) of 1520 million in 2012. Most of this increase (108 million) was attributable to population growth. Use of modern contraceptive methods also increased, and the overall proportion of women with unmet need for modern methods among those wanting to avoid pregnancy decreased from 29% (210 million) in 2003, to 26% (222 million) in 2012. However, unmet need for modern contraceptives was still very high in 2012, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (53 million [60%] of 89 million), south Asia (83 million [34%] of 246 million), and western Asia (14 million [50%] of 27 million). Moreover, a shift in the past decade away from sterilisation, the most effective method, towards injectable drugs and barrier methods, might have led to increases in unintended pregnancies in women using modern methods. INTERPRETATION: Achievement of the desired number and healthy timing of births has important benefits for women, families, and societies. To meet the unmet need for modern contraception, countries need to increase resources, improve access to contraceptive services and supplies, and provide high-quality services and large-scale public education interventions to reduce social barriers. Our findings confirm a substantial and unfinished agenda towards meeting of couples' reproductive needs. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the UN Population Fund (UNFPA).

Intended and unintended pregnancies worldwide in 2012 and recent trends.

Periodic estimation of the incidence of global unintended pregnancy can help demonstrate the need for and impact of family planning programs. We draw upon multiple sources of data to estimate pregnancy incidence by intention status and outcome at worldwide, regional, and subregional levels in 2012 and to assess recent trends using previously published estimates for 2008 and 1995. We find that 213 million pregnancies occurred in 2012, up slightly from 211 million in 2008. The global pregnancy rate decreased only slightly from 2008 to 2012, after declining substantially between 1995 and 2008. Eighty-five million pregnancies, representing 40 percent of all pregnancies, were unintended in 2012. Of these, 50 percent ended in abortion, 13 percent ended in miscarriage, and 38 percent resulted in an unplanned birth. The unintended pregnancy rate continued to decline in Africa and in the Latin America and Caribbean region. If the aims of the London Summit on Family Planning are carried out, the incidence of unwanted and mistimed pregnancies should decline in the coming years.

Induced abortion: incidence and trends worldwide from 1995 to 2008.

BACKGROUND: Data of abortion incidence and trends are needed to monitor progress toward improvement of maternal health and access to family planning. To date, estimates of safe and unsafe abortion worldwide have only been made for 1995 and 2003. METHODS: We used the standard WHO definition of unsafe abortions. Safe abortion estimates were based largely on official statistics and nationally representative surveys. Unsafe abortion estimates were based primarily on information from published studies, hospital records, and surveys of women. We used additional sources and systematic approaches to make corrections and projections as needed where data were misreported, incomplete, or from earlier years. We assessed trends in abortion incidence using rates developed for 1995, 2003, and 2008 with the same methodology. We used linear regression models to explore the association of the legal status of abortion with the abortion rate across subregions of the world in 2008. FINDINGS: The global abortion rate was stable between 2003 and 2008, with rates of 29 and 28 abortions per 1000 women aged 15-44 years, respectively, following a period of decline from 35 abortions per 1000 women in 1995. The average annual percent change in the rate was nearly 2·4% between 1995 and 2003 and 0·3% between 2003 and 2008. Worldwide, 49% of abortions were unsafe in 2008, compared to 44% in 1995. About one in five pregnancies ended in abortion in 2008. The abortion rate was lower in subregions where more women live under liberal abortion laws (p<0·05). INTERPRETATION: The substantial decline in the abortion rate observed earlier has stalled, and the proportion of all abortions that are unsafe has increased. Restrictive abortion laws are not associated with lower abortion rates. Measures to reduce the incidence of unintended pregnancy and unsafe abortion, including investments in family planning services and safe abortion care, are crucial steps toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation.

Financing gaps for Pakistan's contraceptive prevalence goals: Analyses using the Guttmacher adding-it-up methodology.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the paper is to identify levels of and gaps in family planning financing in Pakistan and to assess whether current funding is sufficient to meet national and FP2030 goals to increase contraceptive use to 60% by 2030. STUDY DESIGN: We estimate the cost of family planning services nationally and by province based on the Essential Services Package and WHO/UNFPA cost by applying the existing Guttmacher global Adding-It-Up methodology. Additional data are also analyzed to assess trends in expenditures on family planning between 2017 and 2021. RESULTS: The estimated cost of family planning services provided in Pakistan in 2017 was US$81 million, equivalent to US$0.38 per capita. The estimated gap in costs to provide contraceptive services to the additional 8.6 million women with unmet need for modern contraception was US$93 million. While we found evidence of an upward trend in overall government expenditure on family planning services over the period 2017-21, the pace of increase was slow and uneven across regions. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence highlights the persistent inadequacy of financing for contraceptive services especially if Pakistan intends to achieve its ambitious national and FP2030 goal of increasing contraceptive prevalence to 60% by 2030. IMPLICATIONS: A doubling of current funding for contraceptive services is required in Pakistan. Additional financing needs to be directed towards the poorest women with unmet need to avoid unintended pregnancies and to improve equity in reproductive health outcomes.

Key drivers of fertility levels and differentials in India, at the national, state and population subgroup levels, 2015-2016: An application of Bongaarts' proximate determinants model.

OBJECTIVES: The transition to small family size is at an advanced phase in India, with a national TFR of 2.2 in 2015-16. This paper examines the roles of four key determinants of fertility-marriage, contraception, abortion and postpartum infecundability-for India, all 29 states and population subgroups. METHODS: Data from the most recent available national survey, the National Family Health Survey, conducted in 2015-16, were used. The Bongaarts proximate determinants model was used to quantify the roles of the four key factors that largely determine fertility. Methodological contributions of this analysis are: adaptations of the model to the Indian context; measurement of the role of abortion; and provision of estimates for sub-groups nationally and by state: age, education, residence, wealth status and caste. RESULTS: Nationally, marriage is the most important determinant of the reduction in fertility from the biological maximum, contributing 36%, followed by contraception and abortion, contributing 24% and 23% respectively, and post-partum infecundability contributed 16%. This national pattern of contributions characterizes most states and subgroups. Abortion makes a larger contribution than contraception among young women and better educated women. Findings suggest that sterility and infertility play a greater than average role in Southern states; marriage practices in some Northeastern states; and male migration for less-educated women. The absence of stronger relationships between the key proximate fertility determinants and geography or socio-economic status suggests that as family size declined, the role of these determinants is increasingly homogenous. CONCLUSIONS: Findings argue for improvements across all states and subgroups, in provision of contraceptive care and safe abortion services, given the importance of these mechanisms for implementing fertility preferences. In-depth studies are needed to identify policy and program needs that depend on the barriers and vulnerabilities that exist in specific areas and population groups.

Impacts of COVID-19 on contraceptive and abortion services in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionate effects on people living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), exacerbating weak health systems. We conducted a scoping review to identify, map, and synthesise studies in LMICs that measured the impact of COVID-19 on demand for, provision of, and access to contraceptive and abortion-related services, and reproductive outcomes of these impacts. Using a pre-established protocol, we searched bibliographic databases (December 2019-February 2021) and key grey literature sources (December 2019-April 2021). Of 71 studies included, the majority (61%) were not peer-reviewed, and 42% were based in Africa, 35% in Asia, 17% were multi-region, and 6% were in Latin America and the Caribbean. Most studies were based on data through June 2020. The magnitude of contraceptive service-related impacts varied widely across 55 studies (24 of which also included information on abortion). Nearly all studies assessing changes over time to contraceptive service provision noted declines of varying magnitude, but severe disruptions were relatively uncommon or of limited duration. Twenty-six studies addressed the impacts of COVID-19 on abortion and postabortion care (PAC). Overall, studies found increases in demand, reductions in provision and increases in barriers to accessing these services. The use of abortion services declined, but the use of PAC was more mixed with some studies finding increases compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. The impacts of COVID-19 varied substantially, including the country context, health service, and population studied. Continued monitoring is needed to assess impacts on these key health services, as the COVID-19 pandemic evolves.

Global Developments in Laws on Induced Abortion: 2008-2019.

CONTEXT: Evidence shows that laws that restrict abortion do not eliminate its practice, but instead result in women having clandestine abortions, which are likely to be unsafe. It is important to periodically assess changes in the legal status of abortion around the world. METHODS: The criteria for legal abortion as of 2019 for 199 countries and territories were used to distribute them along a continuum of six mutually exclusive categories, from prohibited to permitted without restriction as to reason. The three most common additional legal grounds that fall outside of this continuum-rape, incest and fetal anomaly-were also quantified. Patterns by region and per capita gross national income were examined. Changes resulting from law reform and judicial decisions since 2008 were assessed, as were changes in policies and guidelines that affect access. RESULTS: Legality correlated positively with income: The proportions of countries in the two most-liberal categories rose uniformly with gross national income. From 2008 to 2019,27 countries expanded the number of legal grounds for abortion; of those, 21 advanced to another legality category, and six added at least one of the most common additional legal grounds. Reform resulted from a range of strategies, generally involving multiple stakeholders and calls for compliance with international human rights norms. CONCLUSIONS: The global trend toward liberalization continued over the past decade; however, even greater progress is needed to guarantee all women's right to legal abortion and to ensure adequate access to safe services in all countries.

RESUMEN Contexto: La evidencia muestra que las leyes que restringen el aborto no eliminan su práctica, sino que dan como resultado que las mujeres se sometan a abortos clandestinos, que probablemente no sean seguros. Es importante evaluar periódicamente los cambios en la situación legal del aborto en todo el mundo. Métodos: Se utilizaron los criterios que definen el aborto legal aplicados en 199 países y territorios a partir de 2019 para distribuirlos a lo largo de un continuo de seis categorías mutuamente excluyentes, desde prohibido totalmente hasta permitido sin restricción en cuanto a razón. También se cuantificaron las tres causales legales adicionales más comunes que caen fuera de este continuo: violación, incesto y anomalía fetal. Se examinaron los patrones por región y el ingreso nacional bruto per cápita. Se evaluaron los cambios resultantes de la reforma legal y las decisiones judiciales a partir de 2008, así como los cambios en las políticas y lineamientos que afectan el acceso a los servicios. Resultados: La legalidad se correlacionó positivamente con el ingreso: las proporciones de países en las dos categorías más liberales aumentaron uniformemente con el INB. De 2008 a 2019, 27 países ampliaron el número de causales legales para el aborto; de ellos, 21 avanzaron a otra categoría de legalidad y seis agregaron al menos una de las causales legales adicionales más comunes. La reforma fue el resultado de una variedad de estrategias, que generalmente involucran a múltiples partes interesadas y exigen el cumplimiento de las normas internacionales de derechos humanos. Conclusiones: La tendencia mundial hacia la liberalización continuó durante la última década; sin embargo, se necesitan avances aún mayores para garantizar el derecho de todas las mujeres al aborto legal y para asegurar un acceso adecuado a servicios seguros en todos los países.

RÉSUMÉ Contexte: Les données montrent que les lois restrictives de l'avortement n'éliminent pas sa pratique, mais qu'elles conduisent plutôt les femmes à l'avortement clandestin, souvent non médicalisé. Il importe d'évaluer régulièrement l'évolution de la légalité de l'avortement dans le monde. Méthodes: Les critères de l'avortement légal en 2019 concernant 199 pays et territoires ont servi de base à leur répartition le long d'un continuum de six catégories mutuellement exclusives, de l'interdiction absolue à l'autorisation sans restriction de motivation. Les trois raisons légales supplémentaires les plus courantes en dehors de ce continuum ­ le viol, l'inceste et la malformation fœtale ­ ont aussi été quantifées. Les tendances par région et en fonction du revenu national brut par habitant ont été examinées. Les changements survenus du fait de la réforme légale et de décisions judiciaires depuis 2008 ont été évalués, de même que l'évolution des politiques et des directives qui affectent l'accès. Résultats: La légalité présente une corrélation positive avec le revenu: les proportions de pays compris dans les deux catégories les plus libérales augmentent uniformément avec le RNB. De 2008 à 2019, 27 pays ont accru le nombre de raisons d'admission légale de l'avortement. Parmi eux, 21 ont progressé vers une autre catégorie de légalité, tandis que six ajoutaient au moins une des raisons supplémentaires les plus courantes. La réforme est le produit de diverses stratégies, impliquant généralement plusieurs intervenants et l'appel au respect des normes internationales en matière de droits humains. Conclusions: La tendance mondiale à la libéralisation s'est poursuivie ces 10 dernières années. Plus de progrès encore sont cependant nécessaires pour garantir le droit de toutes les femmes à l'avortement légal et assurer un accès adéquat à des services sécurisés dans tous les pays.

Incidence of treatment for postabortion complications in India, 2015.

Abortion has been legal under broad criteria in India since 1971. However, access to legal abortion services remains poor. In the past decade, medication abortion (MA) has become widely available in India and use of this method outside of health facilities accounts for over 70% of all abortions. Morbidity from unsafe abortion remains an important health issue. The informal providers who are the primary source of MA may have poor knowledge of the method and may offer inadequate or inaccurate advice on use of the method. Misuse of the method can result in women seeking treatment for true complications as well as during the normal processes of MA. An estimated 5% of all abortions are done using highly unsafe methods and performed by unskilled providers, also contributing to abortion morbidity. This paper provides new representative abortion-related morbidity measures at the national and subnational levels from a large-scale 2015 study of six Indian states-Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. The outcomes include the number and treatment rates of women with complications resulting from induced abortion and the type of complications. The total number of women treated for abortion complications at the national level is 5.2 million, and the rate is 15.7 per 1000 women of reproductive age per year. In all six study states, a high proportion of all women receiving postabortion care were admitted with incomplete abortion from use of MA-ranging from 33% in Tamil Nadu to 65% in Assam. The paper fills an important gap by providing new evidence that can inform policy-makers and health planners at all levels and lead to improvements in the provision of postabortion care and legal abortion services-improvements that would greatly reduce abortion-related morbidity and its costs to Indian women, their families and the healthcare system.

Abortion service provision in South Asia: A comparative study of four countries.

OBJECTIVES: Nationally representative evidence on abortion service provision is scarce in South Asia. To inform improvements in service provision, this paper assesses the availability of facility-based postabortion services in Nepal, India (six states), Bangladesh and Pakistan, and legal abortion services in India and Nepal and Bangladesh (where the official term used is menstrual regulation or MR). STUDY DESIGN: The paper presents comparable indicators on three aspects of abortion service provision from representative surveys of public and private sector facilities, conducted over 2012-2015. Indicators cover three areas: (a) need for abortion-related care (total number of abortions and percent of abortions that are legal and the postabortion treatment rate); (b) availability and accessibility of facility-based abortion-related services (percent of facilities offering only one of the two services, percent which are public and percent located in rural areas); (c) quality of facility-based abortion care (percent of legal abortions using procedures not recommended by WHO and percent of women turned away when seeking abortion or MR services). RESULTS: The proportion of all abortions that are illegal ranges from 58% to almost 78% in the three countries where abortion is permitted under broad criteria. The annual treatment rate for abortion complications ranges from about 4 to 26 per 1000 women ages 15-49 across the countries and states covered. In India and Nepal, less than 40% of public sector facilities that are permitted to provide abortion services do so; in Bangladesh, the situation is somewhat better, at 53% providing MR. Across the six Indian states, 4-43% of facilities that offer abortion care are located in rural areas, disproportionately lower than the proportion of women living in rural areas (49-87%). About 30-60% of facilities offered only postabortion care and did not offer legal services in the three countries where legal services are permitted (with the sole exception of Tamil Nadu where this proportion was only 11%); of the remaining facilities, the large majority offered both services. Medication abortion is offered by the large majority of facilities that provide induced abortion and accounts for 40-45%, of facility-based abortions in Nepal and four of the states of India; in Assam and Bihar, this proportion was much lower (13% and 27% respectively). Invasive procedures that are not recommended by WHO are more widely used in India (up to 25-37% of facility-based abortions are D&C procedures; the large majority of this group are D&C, and a small proportion may be D&E, a WHO-recommended abortion procedure, that could not be separated out in this study because providers use the two labels interchangeably); by comparison, the proportion is much smaller in Nepal (5%). Between 22% to a little over half of facilities turned away some women who would otherwise be eligible for an abortion or MR procedure in Nepal, the six Indian states, and Bangladesh. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need to increase access to abortion, MR and postabortion services, especially for rural women. Greater access to legal abortion/MR services in the three countries that permit these procedures would increase the proportion of abortions that are legal and safe, reduce morbidity and the need for facility-based treatment for complications. Broadening the legal criteria under which abortion is permitted in Pakistan, and implementing access under such broader criteria, is needed to achieve the same improvements in Pakistan. Ensuring that these services are of high quality and comprehensive-meeting WHO-recommended standards-is essential to protect women's reproductive health and rights. IMPLICATIONS: To improve access to abortion, MR and postabortion care in South Asia, all facilities (public and private) permitted to provide these services should do so, and should include medication abortion. Improvements in quality of care are critical: invasive procedures (D&C) should be eliminated through adherence to WHO's standards of safe abortion care and women seeking abortions should not be turned away because of providers' biases.

Estimating the Incidence of Induced Abortion in Java, Indonesia, 2018.

CONTEXT: In Indonesia, maternal mortality is high and abortion is restricted. Reliable information on induced abortion is needed; however, the difficulty of measuring abortion in settings where it is legally restricted and highly stigmatized calls for innovation in approaches to measuring abortion incidence. METHODS: The data were from three original surveys conducted in Java among health facilities, knowledgeable informants and women aged 15-49, fielded in April 2018-January 2019. Two methods were used to estimate the one-year induced abortion incidence rate in Java: the standard Abortion Incidence Complications Method (AICM) and a modified AICM. Each method was evaluated on the basis of data quality, and what is known about sexual and reproductive health indicators related to abortion rates, to determine which performed best in measuring abortion incidence in Java. RESULTS: Estimates of complications resulting from induced abortion from knowledgeable informants and the women differed substantially. The modified AICM produced an estimate of 42.5 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49, while the standard AICM estimate was lower (25.8 per 1,000). A comparison of the distribution of abortion methods used revealed that knowledgeable informants believed abortion was less safe than indicated by women's reports of their own experiences. Therefore, the standard AICM likely underestimates abortion. CONCLUSIONS: The modified AICM performed better than the standard AICM and indicates that abortion is common in Java. Increased access to contraceptives and high-quality postabortion care is needed. Future research should investigate the safety of abortion, especially with respect to self-managed abortion.

RESUMEN Contexto: La mortalidad materna en Indonesia es alta y el aborto está restringido. Se necesita información confiable sobre el aborto inducido; sin embargo, la dificultad de medir el aborto en entornos donde está restringido legalmente y es fuertemente estigmatizado, requiere esfuerzos de innovación en los enfoques para medir la incidencia del aborto. Métodos: Los datos se obtuvieron de tres encuestas originales realizadas en Java entre instituciones de salud, informantes conocedores del tema y mujeres en edades de 15 a 49 años y que fueron aplicadas entre abril de 2018 y enero de 2019. Se usaron dos métodos para estimar la tasa de incidencia de aborto inducido en un año en Java: el método estándar de estimación de aborto por complicaciones (AICM, por sus siglas en inglés) y el AICM modificado. Cada método se evaluó con base en la calidad de los datos y en lo que se sabe sobre indicadores de salud sexual y reproductiva relacionados con las tasas de aborto, para determinar cuál método se desempeñó mejor en la medición de la incidencia de aborto en Java. Resultados: Las estimaciones de complicaciones derivadas del aborto inducido según informantes conocedores del tema y según las mujeres, difirieron sustancialmente. El AICM modificado produjo una estimación de 42.5 abortos por 1,000 mujeres en edades de 15 a 49 años, mientras que la estimación del AICM estándar fue más baja (25.8 por 1,000). Una comparación de la distribución de los métodos de aborto usados reveló que los informantes conocedores creían que el aborto era menos seguro que lo indicado en los informes de las mujeres basados en sus propias experiencias. Por lo tanto, es probable que el método AICM estándar subestime la incidencia del aborto. Conclusiones: El método AICM modificado funcionó mejor que el AICM estándar e indica que el aborto es una práctica común en Java. Son necesarios un mayor acceso a los anticonceptivos y a una atención postaborto de alta calidad. Las futuras investigaciones deben investigar la seguridad del aborto, especialmente en relación con el aborto autoadministrado.

RÉSUMÉ Contexte: En Indonésie, la mortalité maternelle est élevée et l'avortement est limité par la loi. Il existe un besoin d'information fiable concernant l'avortement provoqué. La difficulté de mesurer l'avortement dans les contextes où il est strictement limité et fortement stigmatisé demande cependant des approches innovantes. Méthodes: Les données proviennent de trois enquêtes initiales menées à Java auprès de structures de santé, de sources bien informées et de femmes âgées de 15 à 49 ans, entre avril 2018 et janvier 2019. Le taux d'incidence de l'avortement provoqué à l'échelle d'une année à Java a été estimé selon deux méthodes: la méthode AICM standard d'évaluation de l'incidence de l'avortement en fonction des complications traitées et une méthode AICM modifiée. Chaque méthode a été évaluée en fonction de la qualité des données et de l'information connue sur les indicateurs de santé sexuelle et reproductive relatifs aux taux d'avortement, afin de déterminer celle qui avait le mieux mesuré l'incidence de l'avortement à Java. Résultats: Les estimations des complications résultant de l'avortement provoqué obtenues des sources informées et des femmes consultées se sont avérées nettement différentes. La méthode AICM modifiée a produit une estimation de 42,5 avortements pour 1 000 femmes âgées de 15 à 49 ans, tandis que la méthode AICM standard produisait une estimation inférieure (25,8 pour 1 000). En comparant la distribution des méthodes d'avortement pratiquées, on a constaté que les sources informées estimaient l'avortement moins sùr que ne l'indiquaient les déclarations des femmes concernant leur propre expérience. Il est dès lors probable que la méthode AICM standard sous-estime l'avortement. Conclusions: La méthode AICM modifiée, plus efficace que la méthode standard, fait état d'une pratique courante de l'avortement à Java. Un meilleur accès à la contraception et à des soins après avortement de qualité est nécessaire. La recherche future devrait se pencher sur la sécurité de l'avortement, en ce qui concerne en particulier les interventions autogérées.

Trends in abortion in the United States.

The US abortion rate peaked soon after 1973, remained fairly constant through the 1980s, and began a steady decline to 2005. A substantial drop in the abortion rates of teenagers and women ages 20 to 24 accounts for much of the decline from 1989 to 2004. All race and ethnic groups experienced declines in abortion rates over the past 30 years, but the rate of black, and to a lesser extent Hispanic, women remains higher than that of non-Hispanic whites. The number of abortion providers has declined in recent decades, but the introduction of early medical abortion may have slowed this trend.

Provision of medical methods of abortion in facilities in India in 2015: A six state comparison.

Medical methods of abortion, MMA, has been legal in India since 2002. Guidelines stipulate that it should be administered by a provider or acquired via prescription. 1.2 million women having abortions in India use MMA acquired from health facilities [Singh, S., Shekhar, C., Acharya, R., Moore, A. M., Stillman, M., Pradhan, M. R., … Browne, A. (2018). The incidence of abortion and unintended pregnancy in India, 2015. The Lancet Global Health, 6(1), e111-e120. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30453-9 ]. We undertook a study of abortion in Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh in 2015 to better understand under what conditions and how MMA is being administered in facilities. The majority of facilities that provide MMA are in the private sector and located in urban areas. Most facilities offer MMA both at the facility and as a prescription, although some facilities only offer MMA as a prescription. A high proportion of facilities report that women typically take the medication at home. (Re)training providers in MMA protocols and counselling, increasing the number of facilities offering MMA, and stocking of the drugs would help improve women's access to MMA and the information they need to be able to use this method safely. Key Messages: In the six states in our sample, Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, 8% of abortions in 2015 were done using medical methods of abortion (MMA) acquired from health facilities. The majority of facilities that provide MMA in the six states are in the private sector and are located in urban areas. Health facilities in Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are comparatively better in their provision of MMA with Assam, Bihar, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh demonstrating poorer provision of MMA. There are many opportunities for improvement in the practices of MMA provision through improved training of providers, accessibility to the medications and better support of women using MMA.

Induced abortion: estimated rates and trends worldwide.

BACKGROUND: Information on incidence of induced abortion is crucial for identifying policy and programmatic needs aimed at reducing unintended pregnancy. Because unsafe abortion is a cause of maternal morbidity and mortality, measures of its incidence are also important for monitoring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5. We present new worldwide estimates of abortion rates and trends and discuss their implications for policies and programmes to reduce unintended pregnancy and unsafe abortion and to increase access to safe abortion. METHODS: The worldwide and regional incidences of safe abortions in 2003 were calculated by use of reports from official national reporting systems, nationally representative surveys, and published studies. Unsafe abortion rates in 2003 were estimated from hospital data, surveys, and other published studies. Demographic techniques were applied to estimate numbers of abortions and to calculate rates and ratios for 2003. UN estimates of female populations and livebirths were the source for denominators for rates and ratios, respectively. Regions are defined according to UN classifications. Trends in abortion rates and incidences between 1995 and 2003 are presented. FINDINGS: An estimated 42 million abortions were induced in 2003, compared with 46 million in 1995. The induced abortion rate in 2003 was 29 per 1000 women aged 15-44 years, down from 35 in 1995. Abortion rates were lowest in western Europe (12 per 1000 women). Rates were 17 per 1000 women in northern Europe, 18 per 1000 women in southern Europe, and 21 per 1000 women in northern America (USA and Canada). In 2003, 48% of all abortions worldwide were unsafe, and more than 97% of all unsafe abortions were in developing countries. There were 31 abortions for every 100 livebirths worldwide in 2003, and this ratio was highest in eastern Europe (105 for every 100 livebirths). INTERPRETATION: Overall abortion rates are similar in the developing and developed world, but unsafe abortion is concentrated in developing countries. Ensuring that the need for contraception is met and that all abortions are safe will reduce maternal mortality substantially and protect maternal health.