Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Malaria Incidence: A Comparison of Two Ecological Zones in Mali.

Malaria transmission largely depends on environmental, climatic, and hydrological conditions. In Mali, malaria epidemiological patterns are nested within three ecological zones. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between those conditions and the incidence of malaria in Dangassa and Koila, Mali. Malaria data was collected through passive case detection at community health facilities of each study site from June 2015 to January 2017. Climate and environmental data were obtained over the same time period from the Goddard Earth Sciences (Giovanni) platform and hydrological data from Mali hydraulic services. A generalized additive model was used to determine the lagged time between each principal component analysis derived component and the incidence of malaria cases, and also used to analyze the relationship between malaria and the lagged components in a multivariate approach. Malaria transmission patterns were bimodal at both sites, but peak and lull periods were longer lasting for Koila study site. Temperatures were associated with malaria incidence in both sites. In Dangassa, the wind speed (p = 0.005) and river heights (p = 0.010) contributed to increasing malaria incidence, in contrast to Koila, where it was humidity (p < 0.001) and vegetation (p = 0.004). The relationships between environmental factors and malaria incidence differed between the two settings, implying different malaria dynamics and adjustments in the conception and plan of interventions.

AQ-13, an investigational antimalarial, versus artemether plus lumefantrine for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a randomised, phase 2, non-inferiority clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Chloroquine was used for malaria treatment until resistant Plasmodium falciparum was identified. Because 4-aminoquinolines with modified side chains, such as AQ-13, are active against resistant parasites, we compared AQ-13 against artemether plus lumefantrine for treatment of uncomplicated P falciparum malaria. METHODS: We did a randomised, non-inferiority trial. We screened men (≥18 years) with uncomplicated malaria in Missira (northeast Mali) and Bamako (capital of Mali) for eligibility (≥2000 asexual P falciparum parasites per µL of blood). Eligible participants were randomly assigned to either the artemether plus lumefantrine group or AQ-13 group by permuting blocks of four with a random number generator. Physicians and others caring for the participants were masked, except for participants who received treatment and the research pharmacist who implemented the randomisation and provided treatment. Participants received either 80 mg of oral artemether and 480 mg of oral lumefantrine twice daily for 3 days or 638·50 mg of AQ-13 base (two oral capsules) on days 1 and 2, and 319·25 mg base (one oral capsule) on day 3. Participants were monitored for parasite clearance (50 µL blood samples twice daily at 12 h intervals until two consecutive negative samples were obtained) and interviewed for adverse events (once every day) as inpatients during week 1. During the 5-week outpatient follow-up, participants were examined for adverse events and recurrent infection twice per week. All participants were included in the intention-to-treat analysis and per-protocol analysis, except for those who dropped out in the per-protocol analysis. The composite primary outcome was clearance of asexual parasites and fever by day 7, and absence of recrudescent infection by parasites with the same molecular markers from days 8 to 42 (defined as cure). Non-inferiority was considered established if the proportion of patients who were cured was higher for artemether plus lumefantrine than for AQ-13 and the upper limit of the 95% CI was less than the non-inferiority margin of 15%. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01614964. FINDINGS: Between Aug 6 and Nov 18, 2013, and between Sept 18 and Nov 20, 2015, 66 Malian men with uncomplicated malaria were enrolled. 33 participants were randomly assigned to each group. There were no serious adverse events (grade 2-4) and asexual parasites were cleared by day 7 in both groups. 453 less-severe adverse events (≤grade 1) were reported: 214 in the combination group and 239 in the AQ-13 group. Two participants withdrew from the AQ-13 group after parasite clearance and three were lost to follow-up. In the artemether plus lumefantrine group, two participants had late treatment failures (same markers as original isolates). On the basis of the per-protocol analysis, the AQ-13 and artemether plus lumefantrine groups had similar proportions cured (28 [100%] of 28 vs 31 [93·9%] of 33; p=0·50) and AQ-13 was not inferior to artemether plus lumefantrine (difference -6·1%, 95% CI -14·7 to 2·4). Proportions cured were also similar between the groups in the intention-to-treat analysis (28 of 33, 84·8% for AQ-13 vs 31 of 33, 93·9% for artemether and lumefantrine; p=0·43) but the upper bound of the 95% CI exceeded the 15% non-inferiority margin (difference 9·1%, 95% CI -5·6 to 23·8). INTERPRETATION: The per-protocol analysis suggested non-inferiority of AQ-13 to artemether plus lumefantrine. By contrast, the intention-to-treat analysis, which included two participants who withdrew and three who were lost to follow-up from the AQ-13 group, did not meet the criterion for non-inferiority of AQ-13, although there were no AQ-13 treatment failures. Studies with more participants (and non-immune participants) are needed to decide whether widespread use of modified 4-aminoquinolones should be recommended. FUNDING: US Food and Drug Administration Orphan Product Development, National Institutes of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Burroughs-Wellcome Fund, US State Department, and WHO.

Sahel, savana, riverine and urban malaria in West Africa: Similar control policies with different outcomes.

The study sites for the West African ICEMR are in three countries (The Gambia, Senegal, Mali) and are located within 750 km of each other. In addition, the National Malaria Control Programmes of these countries have virtually identical policies: (1) Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) for the treatment of symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection, (2) Long-Lasting Insecticide-treated bed Nets (LLINs) to reduce the Entomololgic Inoculation Rate (EIR), and (3) sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria during pregnancy (IPTp). However, the prevalence of P. falciparum malaria and the status of malaria control vary markedly across the four sites with differences in the duration of the transmission season (from 4-5 to 10-11 months), the intensity of transmission (with EIRs from unmeasurably low to 4-5 per person per month), multiplicity of infection (from a mean of 1.0 to means of 2-5) and the status of malaria control (from areas which have virtually no control to areas that are at the threshold of malaria elimination). The most important priority is the need to obtain comparable data on the population-based prevalence, incidence and transmission of malaria before new candidate interventions or combinations of interventions are introduced for malaria control.

Improving malaria control in West Africa: interruption of transmission as a paradigm shift.

With the paradigm shift from the reduction of morbidity and mortality to the interruption of transmission, the focus of malaria control broadens from symptomatic infections in children ≤5 years of age to include asymptomatic infections in older children and adults. In addition, as control efforts intensify and the number of interventions increases, there will be decreases in prevalence, incidence and transmission with additional decreases in morbidity and mortality. Expected secondary consequences of these changes include upward shifts in the peak ages for infection (parasitemia) and disease, increases in the ages for acquisition of antiparasite humoral and cellular immune responses and increases in false-negative blood smears and rapid diagnostic tests. Strategies to monitor these changes must include: (1) studies of the entire population (that are not restricted to children ≤5 or ≤10 years of age), (2) study sites in both cities and rural areas (because of increasing urbanization across sub-Saharan Africa) and (3) innovative strategies for surveillance as the prevalence of infection decreases and the frequency of false-negative smears and rapid diagnostic tests increases.