Association of Patient and Tumor Characteristics With Outcomes in Young Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients.

INTRODUCTION: We retrospectively studied young patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) to identify factors associated with disease-specific survival (DSS). METHODS: Patient and tumor characteristics of patients aged ≤45 who received treatments for non-metastatic HNSCC were collected to identify factors associated with DSS. Proportional hazards regression was applied separately for surgical and non-surgical patients. RESULTS: 230 patients were included. Surgical and non-surgical patients had similar DSS. Higher pathologic stages, positive margins, perineural invasion (PNI), extranodal extension and negative HPV status were associated with worse DSS for surgical patients and negative HPV status for non-surgical patients. In the multivariate analysis, pathologic stages, positive margins, and PNI were associated with worse DSS in surgical patients. CONCLUSION: Pathologic stages, positive margins, and PNI are independently associated with worse DSS in young surgical HNSCC patients. PNI is a uniquely strong prognostic factor for young patients.

Evolution of cisplatin resistance through coordinated metabolic reprogramming of the cellular reductive state.

BACKGROUND: Cisplatin (CDDP) is a mainstay treatment for advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) despite a high frequency of innate and acquired resistance. We hypothesised that tumours acquire CDDP resistance through an enhanced reductive state dependent on metabolic rewiring. METHODS: To validate this model and understand how an adaptive metabolic programme might be imprinted, we performed an integrated analysis of CDDP-resistant HNSCC clones from multiple genomic backgrounds by whole-exome sequencing, RNA-seq, mass spectrometry, steady state and flux metabolomics. RESULTS: Inactivating KEAP1 mutations or reductions in KEAP1 RNA correlated with Nrf2 activation in CDDP-resistant cells, which functionally contributed to resistance. Proteomics identified elevation of downstream Nrf2 targets and the enrichment of enzymes involved in generation of biomass and reducing equivalents, metabolism of glucose, glutathione, NAD(P), and oxoacids. This was accompanied by biochemical and metabolic evidence of an enhanced reductive state dependent on coordinated glucose and glutamine catabolism, associated with reduced energy production and proliferation, despite normal mitochondrial structure and function. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis identified coordinated metabolic changes associated with CDDP resistance that may provide new therapeutic avenues through targeting of these convergent pathways.

Oropharyngeal cancer outcomes correlate with p16 status, multinucleation and immune infiltration.

Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), largely fueled by the human papillomavirus (HPV), has a complex biological and immunologic phenotype. Although HPV/p16 status can be used to stratify OPSCC patients as a function of survival, it remains unclear what drives an improved treatment response in HPV-associated OPSCC and whether targetable biomarkers exist that can inform a precision oncology approach. We analyzed OPSCC patients treated between 2000 and 2016 and correlated locoregional control (LRC), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) with conventional clinical parameters, risk parameters generated using deep-learning algorithms trained to quantify tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) (OP-TIL) and multinucleated tumor cells (MuNI) and targeted transcriptomics. P16 was a dominant determinant of LRC, DFS and OS, but tobacco exposure, OP-TIL and MuNI risk features correlated with clinical outcomes independent of p16 status and the combination of p16, OP-TIL and MuNI generated a better stratification of OPSCC risk compared to individual parameters. Differential gene expression (DEG) analysis demonstrated overlap between MuNI and OP-TIL and identified genes involved in DNA repair, oxidative stress response and tumor immunity as the most prominent correlates with survival. Alteration of inflammatory/immune pathways correlated strongly with all risk features and oncologic outcomes. This suggests that development of OPSCC consists of an intersection between multiple required and permissive oncogenic and immunologic events which may be mechanistically linked. The strong relationship between tumor immunity and oncologic outcomes in OPSCC regardless of HPV status may provide opportunities for further biomarker development and precision oncology approaches incorporating immune checkpoint inhibitors for maximal anti-tumor efficacy.

Gain-of-function mutant p53 promotes cell growth and cancer cell metabolism via inhibition of AMPK activation.

Many mutant p53 proteins (mutp53s) exert oncogenic gain-of-function (GOF) properties, but the mechanisms mediating these functions remain poorly defined. We show here that GOF mutp53s inhibit AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) signaling in head and neck cancer cells. Conversely, downregulation of GOF mutp53s enhances AMPK activation under energy stress, decreasing the activity of the anabolic factors acetyl-CoA carboxylase and ribosomal protein S6 and inhibiting aerobic glycolytic potential and invasive cell growth. Under conditions of energy stress, GOF mutp53s, but not wild-type p53, preferentially bind to the AMPKα subunit and inhibit AMPK activation. Given the importance of AMPK as an energy sensor and tumor suppressor that inhibits anabolic metabolism, our findings reveal that direct inhibition of AMPK activation is an important mechanism through which mutp53s can gain oncogenic function.

Knowledge-based planning for the radiation therapy treatment plan quality assurance for patients with head and neck cancer.

This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of using a knowledge-based planning technique to detect poor quality VMAT plans for patients with head and neck cancer. We created two dose-volume histogram (DVH) prediction models using a commercial knowledge-based planning system (RapidPlan, Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) from plans generated by manual planning (MP) and automated planning (AP) approaches. DVHs were predicted for evaluation cohort 1 (EC1) of 25 patients and compared with achieved DVHs of MP and AP plans to evaluate prediction accuracy. Additionally, we predicted DVHs for evaluation cohort 2 (EC2) of 25 patients for which we intentionally generated plans with suboptimal normal tissue sparing while satisfying dose-volume limits of standard practice. Three radiation oncologists reviewed these plans without seeing the DVH predictions. We found that predicted DVH ranges (upper-lower predictions) were consistently wider for the MP model than for the AP model for all normal structures. The average ranges of mean dose predictions among all structures was 9.7 Gy (MP model) and 3.4 Gy (AP model) for EC1 patients. RapidPlan models identified 7 MP plans as outliers according to mean dose or D1% for at least one structure, while none of AP plans were flagged. For EC2 patients, 22 suboptimal plans were identified by prediction. While re-generated AP plans validated that these suboptimal plans could be improved, 40 out of 45 structures with predicted poor sparing were also identified by oncologist reviews as requiring additional planning to improve sparing in the clinical setting. Our study shows that knowledge-based DVH prediction models can be sufficiently accurate for plan quality assurance purposes. A prediction model built by a small cohort automatically-generated plans was effective in detecting suboptimal plans. Such tools have potential to assist the plan quality assurance workflow for individual patients in the clinic.

Perspectives in immunotherapy: meeting report from the "Immunotherapy Bridge" (December 4th-5th, 2019, Naples, Italy).

Over the last few years, numerous clinical trials and real-world experience have provided a large amount of evidence demonstrating the potential for long-term survival with immunotherapy agents across various malignancies, beginning with melanoma and extending to other tumours. The clinical success of immune checkpoint blockade has encouraged increasing development of other immunotherapies. It has been estimated that there are over 3000 immuno-oncology trials ongoing, targeting hundreds of disease and immune pathways. Evolving topics on cancer immunotherapy, including the state of the art of immunotherapy across various malignancies, were the focus of discussions at the Immunotherapy Bridge meeting (4-5 December, 2019, Naples, Italy), and are summarised in this report.

Late and Long-Term Treatment-Related Effects and Survivorship for Head and Neck Cancer Patients.

OPINION STATEMENT: The demographics of head and neck cancer (HNC) survivors are changing, contributing to a growing number of survivors and a greater length of survivorship. Curative treatment involves intense multimodal therapy, which contributes to both short-term toxicities and long-term treatment-related effects. Delivering high-quality, relevant cancer survivorship care is a growing national priority. Various survivorship models and tools, such as survivorship care plans, have been utilized in an attempt to enhance care and optimize outcomes. However, an essential, yet understudied, component of high-quality survivorship care is the identification and management of late and long-term treatment-related effects. In this article, we will describe the current advancements in survivorship care as well as the research related to late and long-term treatment effects. While there is a growing body of literature that describes the prevalence of treatment-related effects and their impact on quality of life, more work is needed. Research that investigates the interplay of these complex treatment effects, the biological mechanisms that contribute to their variability, and interventions designed to mitigate them are desperately needed. While de-intensification offers the potential to alleviate these effects for future survivors, we need clinically meaningful assessment tools and therapies to provide the survivors we evaluate and treat daily. Targeted patient-reported outcomes and objective measures validated through clinical research are needed to help us systematically identify and treat late and long-term effects. In order to tailor and optimize the care we provide to our HNC survivors, we will need to leverage these tools as well as the expertise of all members of our multidisciplinary survivorship teams.

Radiographic retropharyngeal lymph node involvement in HPV-associated oropharyngeal carcinoma: Patterns of involvement and impact on patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The objective of the current study was to characterize the incidence, pattern, and impact on oncologic outcomes of retropharyngeal lymph node (RPLN) involvement in HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). METHODS: Data regarding patients with HPV-associated OPC who were treated at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center with intensity-modulated radiotherapy from 2004 through 2013 were analyzed retrospectively. RPLN status was determined by reviewing pretreatment imaging and/or reports. Outcomes analysis was restricted to patients with lymph node-positive (+) disease. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were generated and survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. Bayesian information criterion assessed model performance changes with the addition of RPLN status to current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging. Competing risk analysis compared modes of disease recurrence. RESULTS: The incidence of radiographic RPLN involvement was 9% (73 of 796 patients) and was found to vary by primary tumor site. The 5-year rates of freedom from distant metastases (FDM) and overall survival were lower in patients with RPLN(+) status compared with those with RPLN-negative (-) status (84% vs 93% [P = .0327] and 74% vs 87% [P = .0078], respectively). RPLN(+) status was not found to be associated with outcomes on multivariate analysis. Bayesian information criterion analysis demonstrated that current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging was not improved with the inclusion of RPLN. Locoregional and distant disease recurrence probabilities for those patients with RPLN(+) status were 8% and 13%, respectively, compared with 10% and 6%, respectively, for those with RPLN(-) status. RPLN(+) status portended worse 5-year FDM in the low-risk subgroup (smoking history of <10 pack-years) and among patients who received concurrent chemotherapy but not induction chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: RPLN(+) status was associated with worse overall survival and FDM on univariate but not multivariate analysis. In subgroup analyses, RPLN(+) status was associated with poorer FDM in both patients with a smoking history of <10 pack-years and those who received concurrent chemotherapy, suggesting that RPLN(+) status could be considered an exclusion criteria in treatment deintensification efforts seeking to omit chemotherapy.

Usefulness of surveillance imaging in patients with head and neck cancer who are treated with definitive radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The current study was performed to assess the efficacy of surveillance imaging in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) who are treated definitively with radiotherapy. METHODS: Eligible patients included those with a demonstrable disease-free interval (≥1 follow-up imaging procedure without evidence of disease and a subsequent visit/imaging procedure) who underwent treatment of HNC from 2000 through 2010. RESULTS: A total of 1508 patients were included. The median overall survival was 99 months, with a median imaging follow-up period of 59 months. Of the 1508 patients, 190 patients (12.6%) experienced disease recurrence (107 patients had locoregional and 83 had distant disease recurrence). A total of 119 patients (62.6%) in the group with disease recurrence were symptomatic and/or had an adverse clinical finding associated with the recurrence. Approximately 80% of patients with locoregional disease recurrences presented with a clinical finding, whereas 60% of distant disease recurrences were detected by imaging in asymptomatic patients. Despite the earlier detection of disease recurrence via imaging, those patients in the group of patients with clinically detected disease recurrence were significantly more likely to undergo salvage therapy compared with those whose recurrence was detected on imaging (odds ratio, 0.35). There was no difference in overall survival noted between those patients with disease recurrences that were detected clinically or with imaging alone. Approximately 70% of disease recurrences occurred within the first 2 years. In those patients who developed disease recurrence after 2 years, the median time to recurrence was 51 months. After 2 years, the average number of imaging procedures per patient for the detection of a salvageable recurrence for the imaging-detected group was 1539. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance imaging in asymptomatic patients with HNC who are treated definitively with radiotherapy without clinically suspicious findings beyond 2 years has a low yield and a high cost. Physicians ordering these studies must use judicious consideration and discretion.

Outcomes of patients diagnosed with carcinoma metastatic to the neck from an unknown primary source and treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy.

BACKGROUND: There are few published studies to guide the treatment of carcinoma metastatic to the neck from an unknown primary (CUP). In this regard, the objective of the current study was to share the authors' current experience treating patients with CUP using intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), which principally targeted both sides of the neck, the nasopharynx, and the oropharynx. METHODS: This was a retrospective study in which an institutional database search was conducted to identify patients with CUP who received IMRT. Data analysis included frequency tabulation, survival analysis, and multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Two-hundred sixty patients met inclusion criteria. The most common lymph node category was N2b (54%). IMRT volumes included the entire pharyngolaryngeal mucosa in 78 patients, the nasopharynx and oropharynx in 167 patients, and treatment limited to the involved neck in 11 patients. Eighty-four patients underwent neck dissections. The 5-year overall survival, regional control, and distant metastases-free survival rates were 84%, 91%, and 94%, respectively. Over 40% of patients had gastrostomy tubes during therapy, and 7% patients were diagnosed with chronic radiation-associated dysphagia. Higher lymph node burden was associated with worse disease-related outcomes, and in subgroup analysis, patients with human papillomavirus-associated disease had better outcomes. No therapeutic modality was statistically associated with either disease-related outcomes or toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive IMRT with treatment to both sides of the neck and to the oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal mucosa results in high rates of disease control and survival. The investigators were unable to demonstrate that treatment intensification with chemotherapy or surgery added benefit or excessive toxicity. Cancer 2018;124:1415-27. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Influence of induction chemotherapy in trimodality therapy-eligible oesophageal cancer patients: secondary analysis of a randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: A randomised phase 2 trial of trimodality with or without induction chemotherapy (IC) in oesophageal cancer (EC) patients showed no advantage in overall survival (OS) or pathologic complete response rate. To identify subsets that might benefit from IC, a secondary analysis was done. METHODS: The trial had accrued 126 patients (NCT 00525915). Recursive partitioning and proportional hazards regression with interactions were performed. RESULTS: The median follow-up of surviving patients was 6.7 years and the median OS duration was 3.8 years (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.6-5.8 years). OS was associated with tumour length (P=0.03), cT (P=0.02), cN (P=0.04), clinical stage (P=0.01), and tumour grade (P<0.001). The effect of IC differed according to tumour grade. Among patients with well or moderately differentiated (WMD) ECs (n=59), the 5-year survival rate was 74% with IC and 50% without IC, P=0.001. IC had no effect on OS of patients with poorly differentiated (PD) ECs (31% and 28%, respectively; interaction, P=0.04; IC, P=0.03). In the multivariate reduced model, WMD with IC was an independent prognosticator for better OS (HR=0.41, 95% CI, 0.25-0.67; P=<0.001). The following four EC phenotypes emerged for OS: (1) very high risk (PD, cN2/N3), (2) high risk (PD, cN0/N1, stage cIII), (3) moderate risk (PD, cN0/N1, stage cI/II or WMD without IC), and (4) low risk (WMD with IC). The 5-year survival rates were 11%, 27%, 48%, and 74%, respectively (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that IC significantly prolonged OS of WMD EC patients who undergo trimodality; prospective evaluation is needed.

Actionable Locoregional Relapses after Therapy of Localized Esophageal Cancer: Insights from a Large Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of surveillance after therapy of localized esophageal cancer (LEC) is to identify actionable relapses amenable to salvage; however, the current surveillance algorithms are not optimized. We report on a large cohort of LEC patients with actionable locoregional relapses (LRRs). METHODS: Between 2000 and 2013, 127 (denominator = 752) patients with actionable LRR were identified. Histologic/cytologic confirmation was the gold standard. All surveillance tools (imaging, endoscopy, fine needle aspiration) were assessed. RESULTS: Most patients were men (89%), had adenocarcinoma (79%), and had no new symptoms (72%) when diagnosed with LRR. In trimodality patients, endoscopic confirmation of positron emission tomography-computed tomography-suspected LRR occurred in only 44%, and 56% required additional tools (e.g., fine needle aspiration). Alternatively, in bimodality patients, endoscopy confirmed LRRs in 81%. Trimodality patients had a higher risk of subsequent LRR/distant metastases after the first LRR than the bimodality patients (p = 0.03). In all patients, 78% of the subsequent relapses were distant. For patients who were salvaged, survival was significantly prolonged (50.6 vs. 25.1 months, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Patients live longer after successful salvage of the LRR than if salvage is not possible. After LRR, patients have a high risk of subsequent distant metastasis and whether the second relapse is local or distant, survival is uniformly poor.

Predicting treatment Response based on Dual assessment of magnetic resonance Imaging kinetics and Circulating Tumor cells in patients with Head and Neck cancer (PREDICT-HN): matching 'liquid biopsy' and quantitative tumor modeling.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has improved capacity to visualize tumor and soft tissue involvement in head and neck cancers. Using advanced MRI, we can interrogate cell density using diffusion weighted imaging, a quantitative imaging that can be used during radiotherapy, when diffuse inflammatory reaction precludes PET imaging, and can assist with target delineation as well. Correlation of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) measurements with 3D quantitative tumor characterization could potentially allow selective, patient-specific response-adapted escalation or de-escalation of local therapy, and improve the therapeutic ratio, curing the greatest number of patients with the least toxicity. METHODS: The proposed study is designed as a prospective observational study and will collect pretreatment CT, MRI and PET/CT images, weekly serial MR imaging during RT and post treatment CT, MRI and PET/CT images. In addition, blood sample will be collected for biomarker analysis at those time intervals. CTC assessments will be performed on the CellSave tube using the FDA-approved CellSearch® Circulating Tumor Cell Kit (Janssen Diagnostics), and plasma from the EDTA blood samples will be collected, labeled with a de-identifying number, and stored at - 80 °C for future analyses. DISCUSSION: The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the prognostic value and correlation of weekly tumor response kinetics (gross tumor volume and MR signal changes) and circulating tumor cells of mucosal head and neck cancers during radiation therapy using MRI in predicting treatment response and clinical outcomes. This study will provide landmark information as to the utility of CTCs ('liquid biopsy) and tumor-specific functional quantitative imaging changes during treatment to guide personalization of treatment for future patients. Combining the biological information from CTCs and the structural information from MRI may provide more information than either modality alone. In addition, this study could potentially allow us to determine the optimal time to obtain MR imaging and/ or CTCs during radiotherapy to assess tumor response and provide guidance for patient selection and stratification for future dose escalation or de-escalation strategies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03491176 ). Date of registration: 9th April 2018. (retrospectively registered). Date of enrolment of the first participant: 30th May 2017.

Pathological complete response in patients with esophageal cancer after the trimodality approach: The association with baseline variables and survival-The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center experience.

BACKGROUND: Reports are limited regarding clinical and pretreatment features that might predict a pathological complete response (pathCR) after treatment in patients with esophageal cancer (EC). This might allow patient selection for different strategies. This study examines the association of a pathCR with pretreatment variables, overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and patterns of recurrence in a large cohort from a single institution. METHODS: The baseline clinical features of 911 consecutive patients with EC who were treated with trimodality therapy from January 2000 to November 2013 were analyzed. A pathCR was defined as a surgical specimen with no residual carcinoma (primary or nodes). Logistic regressions were used to identify independent baseline features associated with a pathCR. We applied log-rank testing and Cox models to determine the association between a pathCR and the time-to-event outcomes (OS and RFS). RESULTS: Of 911 patients, 218 (23.9%) achieved a pathCR. The pathCR rate was 23.1% for adenocarcinoma and 32.2% for squamous cell carcinoma. A lower pathCR rate was observed for 1) older patients (>60 years), 2) patients with poorly differentiated tumors, 3) patients with signet ring cells (SRCs), and 4) patients with a higher T stage. Patients with a pathCR had longer OS and RFS than those without a pathCR (P = .0021 and P = .0011, respectively). Recurrences occurred more in non-pathCR patients. Distant metastases were the most common type of recurrence. PathCR patients developed brain metastases at a marginally higher rate than non-pathCR patients (P = .051). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort study, a pathCR is confirmed to be associated with better OS and RFS. The presence of a poorly differentiated tumor or SRCs reduces the likelihood of a pathCR. Future research should focus on molecular classifiers. Cancer 2017;123:4106-4113. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Nuclear expression of Gli-1 is predictive of pathologic complete response to chemoradiation in trimodality treated oesophageal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Predictive biomarkers or signature(s) for oesophageal cancer (OC) patients undergoing preoperative therapy could help administration of effective therapy, avoidance of ineffective ones, and establishment new strategies. Since the hedgehog pathway is often upregulated in OC, we examined its transcriptional factor, Gli-1, which confers therapy resistance, we wanted to assess Gli-1 as a predictive biomarker for chemoradiation response and validate it. METHODS: Untreated OC tissues from patients who underwent chemoradiation and surgery were assessed for nuclear Gli-1 by immunohistochemistry and labelling indices (LIs) were correlated with pathologic complete response (pathCR) or

101 Long-Term Survivors Who Had Metastatic Gastroesophageal Cancer and Received Local Consolidative Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Through a multidisciplinary decision-making process, we developed a strategy of systemic therapy followed by local consolidative therapy (chemoradiation with/without surgery) in selected patients with metastatic gastroesophageal carcinoma (mGEAC). Only after a consensus during multidisciplinary discussions, local therapy was initiated. METHODS: We identified 101 patients with mGEAC who had local consolidation. We evaluated the association between various clinical variables (location of the primary, location of metastases, duration of initial chemotherapy, histologic grade, and radiation dose) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Of 101 patients, 71 had a proximal primary (esophageal, Siewert type I or II), and 30 patients had a distal primary (Siewert type III or distal). The median OS was 25.7 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3-32.8). The OS rates at 2 and 5 years were 53.8% (95% CI 44.7-64.8) and 20.7% (95% CI 13.4-31.9), respectively. OS was highly associated with the location of the primary (median of 22.8 months for Siewert I/II vs. 41.5 months for Siewert III or distal, p = 0.03). The duration of initial chemotherapy was highly associated with OS (median of 21.8 months for <3 months vs. 32.5 months for ≥3 months, p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Some mGEAC patients with a favorable clinical course can achieve a ∼20% 5-year survival rate with an approach that uses initial chemotherapy followed by multidisciplinary discussion to proceed with consolidation with local therapy. Patients with distal GEAC and those who receive initial chemotherapy for ≥3 months are the maximum beneficiaries.

Metastatic Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma Patients Treated with Systemic Therapy Followed by Consolidative Local Therapy: A Nomogram Associated with Long-Term Survivors.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with metastatic gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (MGEAC) have a poor but heterogeneous clinical course. Some patients have an unusually favorable outcome. We sought to identify clinical variables associated with more favorable outcomes. METHODS: Of 246 patients with MGEAC, we identified 64 who received systemic therapy and eventually received local consolidation therapy. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used, and a nomogram was developed. RESULTS: Of these 64 patients, 61% had received consolidation chemoradiation (CRT) with doses of 50-55 Gy and 78% did not undergo surgery. The median follow-up time of survivors was 3.9 years, and the median overall survival (OS) from CRT start was 1.5 years (95% CI, 1.2-2.2). Surgery (as local consolidation) was an independent prognosticator for longer OS in the multivariate analysis (p = 0.02). The 5-year OS rate was 25% (SE = 6%). The contributors to the nomogram were longer duration of systemic therapy before CRT and the type of local therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that a subset of patients with MGEAC have an excellent prognosis (OS >5 years). However, these patients need to be identified during their clinical course so that local consolidation (CRT, surgery, or both) may be offered.

A Nomogram to Predict Distant Metastases After Multimodality Therapy for Patients With Localized Esophageal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with localized esophageal cancer (LEC), 35% or more develop distant metastases (DM) as first relapse, most in the first 24 months after local therapy. Implementation of novel strategies may be possible if DM can be predicted reliably. We hypothesized that clinical variables could help generate a DM nomogram. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with LEC who completed multimodality therapy were analyzed. Various statistical methods were used, including multivariate analysis to generate a nomogram. A concordance index (c-index) was established and validated using the bootstrap method. RESULTS: Among 629 patients analyzed (356 trimodality/273 bimodality), 36% patients developed DM as first relapse. The median overall survival from DM was only 8.6 months (95% CI, 7.0-10.2). In a multivariate analysis, the variables associated with a higher risk for developing DM were poorly differentiated histology (hazard ratio [HR], 1.76; P<.0001), baseline T3/T4 primary (HR, 3.07; P=.0006), and baseline N+ LEC (HR, 2.01; P<.0001). Although variables associated with a lower risk for DM were age of 60 years or older (HR, 0.75; P=.04), squamous cell carcinoma (HR, 0.54; P=.013), and trimodality therapy (HR, 0.58; P=.0001), the bias-corrected c-index was 0.67 after 250 bootstrap resamples. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram identified patients with LEC who developed DM with a high probability. The model needs to be refined (tumor and blood biomarkers) and validated. This type of model will allow implementation of novel strategies in patients with LEC.

Pre-Radiation Therapy Fluorine 18 Fluorodeoxyglucose PET Helps Identify Patients with Esophageal Cancer at High Risk for Radiation Pneumonitis.

PURPOSE: To examine the association between pre-radiation therapy (RT) fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake and post-RT symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In accordance with the retrospective study protocol approved by the institutional review board, 228 esophageal cancer patients who underwent FDG PET/CT before chemotherapy and RT were examined. RP symptoms were evaluated by using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0, from the consensus of five clinicians. By using the cumulative distribution of standardized uptake values (SUVs) within the lungs, those values greater than 80%-95% of the total lung voxels were determined for each patient. The effect of pre-chemotherapy and RT FDG uptake, dose, and patient or treatment characteristics on RP toxicity was studied by using logistic regression. RESULTS: The study subjects were treated with three-dimensional conformal RT (n = 36), intensity-modulated RT (n = 135), or proton therapy (n = 57). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated elevated FDG uptake at pre-chemotherapy and RT was related to expression of RP symptoms. Study subjects with elevated 95% percentile of the SUV (SUV95) were more likely to develop symptomatic RP (P < .000012); each 0.1 unit increase in SUV95 was associated with a 1.36-fold increase in the odds of symptomatic RP. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis resulted in area under the ROC curve of 0.676 (95% confidence interval: 0.58, 0.77), sensitivity of 60%, and specificity of 71% at the 1.17 SUV95 threshold. CT imaging and dosimetric parameters were found to be poor predictors of RP symptoms. CONCLUSION: The SUV95, a biomarker of pretreatment pulmonary metabolic activity, was shown to be prognostic of symptomatic RP. Elevation in this pretreatment biomarker identifies patients at high risk for posttreatment symptomatic RP.