Ambrosia pollen source inventory for Italy: a multi-purpose tool to assess the impact of the ragweed leaf beetle (Ophraella communa LeSage) on populations of its host plant.

Here, we produce Ambrosia pollen source inventories for Italy that focuses on the periods before and after the accidental introduction of the Ophraella communa beetle. The inventory uses the top-down approach that combines the annual Ambrosia pollen index from a number of monitoring stations in the source region as well as Ambrosia ecology, local knowledge of Ambrosia infestation and detailed land cover information. The final inventory is gridded to a 5 × 5-km resolution using a stereographic projection. The sites with the highest European Infection levels were recorded in the north of Italy at Busto Arsizio (VA3) (European Infection level 2003-2014 = 52.1) and Magenta (MI7) (European Infection level 2003-2014 = 51.3), whereas the sites with the lowest (i.e. around 0.0) were generally located to the south of the country. Analysis showed that the European Infection level in all of Italy was significantly lower in 2013-2014 compared to 2003-2012, and this decrease was even more pronounced at the sites in the area where Ophraella communa was distributed. Cross-validations show that the sensitivity to the inclusion of stations is typically below 1% (for two thirds of the stations) and that the station Magenta (MI7) had the largest impact compared to all other stations. This is the first time that pollen source inventories from different temporal periods have been compared in this way and has implications for simulating interannual variations in pollen emission as well as evaluating the management of anemophilous plants like Ambrosia artemisiifolia.

Spatial and temporal variations in airborne Ambrosia pollen in Europe.

The European Commission Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action FA1203 "SMARTER" aims to make recommendations for the sustainable management of Ambrosia across Europe and for monitoring its efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The goal of the present study is to provide a baseline for spatial and temporal variations in airborne Ambrosia pollen in Europe that can be used for the management and evaluation of this noxious plant. The study covers the full range of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. distribution over Europe (39°N-60°N; 2°W-45°E). Airborne Ambrosia pollen data for the principal flowering period of Ambrosia (August-September) recorded during a 10-year period (2004-2013) were obtained from 242 monitoring sites. The mean sum of daily average airborne Ambrosia pollen and the number of days that Ambrosia pollen was recorded in the air were analysed. The mean and standard deviation (SD) were calculated regardless of the number of years included in the study period, while trends are based on those time series with 8 or more years of data. Trends were considered significant at p < 0.05. There were few significant trends in the magnitude and frequency of atmospheric Ambrosia pollen (only 8% for the mean sum of daily average Ambrosia pollen concentrations and 14% for the mean number of days Ambrosia pollen were recorded in the air). The direction of any trends varied locally and reflected changes in sources of the pollen, either in size or in distance from the monitoring station. Pollen monitoring is important for providing an early warning of the expansion of this invasive and noxious plant.

Mesoscale atmospheric transport of ragweed pollen allergens from infected to uninfected areas.

Allergenic ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen grains, after being released from anthers, can be dispersed by air masses far from their source. However, the action of air temperature, humidity and solar radiation on pollen grains in the atmosphere could impact on the ability of long distance transported (LDT) pollen to maintain allergenic potency. Here, we report that the major allergen of Ambrosia artemisiifolia pollen (Amb a 1) collected in ambient air during episodes of LDT still have immunoreactive properties. The amount of Amb a 1 found in LDT ragweed pollen grains was not constant and varied between episodes. In addition to allergens in pollen sized particles, we detected reactive Amb a 1 in subpollen sized respirable particles. These findings suggest that ragweed pollen grains have the potential to cause allergic reactions, not only in the heavily infested areas but, due to LDT episodes, also in the regions unaffected by ragweed populations.

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula.

Airborne pollen transport at micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales must be studied by atmospheric models, having special relevance in complex terrain. In these cases, the accuracy of these models is mainly determined by the spatial resolution of the underlying meteorological dataset. This work examines how meteorological datasets determine the results obtained from atmospheric transport models used to describe pollen transport in the atmosphere. We investigate the effect of the spatial resolution when computing backward trajectories with the HYSPLIT model. We have used meteorological datasets from the WRF model with 27, 9 and 3 km resolutions and from the GDAS files with 1° resolution. This work allows characterizing atmospheric transport of Olea pollen in a region with complex flows. The results show that the complex terrain affects the trajectories and this effect varies with the different meteorological datasets. Overall, the change from GDAS to WRF-ARW inputs improves the analyses with the HYSPLIT model, thereby increasing the understanding the pollen episode. The results indicate that a spatial resolution of at least 9 km is needed to simulate atmospheric flows that are considerable affected by the relief of the landscape. The results suggest that the appropriate meteorological files should be considered when atmospheric models are used to characterize the atmospheric transport of pollen on micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales. Furthermore, at these scales, the results are believed to be generally applicable for related areas such as the description of atmospheric transport of radionuclides or in the definition of nuclear-radioactivity emergency preparedness.

Exploring the spatio-temporal relationship between two key aeroallergens and meteorological variables in the United Kingdom.

Constructing accurate predictive models for grass and birch pollen in the air, the two most important aeroallergens, for areas with variable climate conditions such as the United Kingdom, require better understanding of the relationships between pollen count in the air and meteorological variables. Variations in daily birch and grass pollen counts and their relationship with daily meteorological variables were investigated for nine pollen monitoring sites for the period 2000-2010 in the United Kingdom. An active pollen count sampling method was employed at each of the monitoring stations to sample pollen from the atmosphere. The mechanism of this method is based on the volumetric spore traps of Hirst design (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 39(2):257-265, 1952). The pollen season (start date, finish date) for grass and birch were determined using a first derivative method. Meteorological variables such as daily rainfall; maximum, minimum and average temperatures; cumulative sum of Sunshine duration; wind speed; and relative humidity were related to the grass and birch pollen counts for the pre-peak, post peak and the entire pollen season. The meteorological variables were correlated with the pollen count data for the following temporal supports: same-day, 1-day prior, 1-day mean prior, 3-day mean prior, 7-day mean prior. The direction of influence (positive/negative) of meteorological variables on pollen count varied for birch and grass, and also varied when the pollen season was treated as a whole season, or was segmented into the pre-peak and post-peak seasons. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of grass pollen in the atmosphere. Both maximum temperature (pre-peak) and sunshine produced a strong positive correlation, and rain produced a strong negative correlation with grass pollen count in the air. Similarly, average temperature, wind speed and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of birch pollen in the air. Both wind speed and rain produced a negative correlation with birch pollen count in the air and average temperature produced a positive correlation.

Pollen season and climate: is the timing of birch pollen release in the UK approaching its limit?

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995-2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of 'sign-switching' when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.

Climate change impact on fungi in the atmospheric microbiome.

The atmospheric microbiome is one of the least studied microbiomes of our planet. One of the most abundant, diverse and impactful parts of this microbiome is arguably fungal spores. They can be very potent outdoor aeroallergens and pathogens, causing an enormous socio-economic burden on health services and annual damages to crops costing billions of Euros. We find through hypothesis testing that an expected warmer and drier climate has a dramatic impact on the atmospheric microbiome, conceivably through alteration of the hydrological cycle impacting agricultural systems, with significant differences in leaf wetness between years (p-value <0.05). The data were measured via high-throughput sequencing analysis using the DNA barcode marker, ITS2. This was complemented by remote sensing analysis of land cover and dry matter productivity based on the Sentinel satellites, on-site detection of atmospheric and vegetation variables, GIS analysis, harvesting analysis and footprint modelling on trajectory clusters using the atmospheric transport model HYSPLIT. We find the seasonal spore composition varies between rural and urban zones reflecting both human activities (e.g. harvest), type and status of the vegetation and the prevailing climate rather than mesoscale atmospheric transport. We find that crop harvesting governs the composition of the atmospheric microbiome through a clear distinction between harvest and post-harvest beta-diversity by PERMANOVA on Bray-Curtis dissimilarity (p-value <0.05). Land cover impacted significantly by two-way ANOVA (p-value <0.05), while there was minimal impact from air mass transport over the 3 years. The hypothesis suggests that the fungal spore composition will change dramatically due to climate change, an until now unforeseen effect affecting both food security, human health and the atmospheric hydrological cycle. Consequently the management of crop diseases and impact on human health through aeroallergen exposure need to consider the timing of crop treatments and land management, including post harvest, to minimize exposure of aeroallergens and pathogens.

The Pannonian plain as a source of Ambrosia pollen in the Balkans.

This study aims to find likely sources of Ambrosia pollen recorded during 2007 at five pollen-monitoring sites in central Europe: Novi Sad, Ruma, Negotin and Nis (Serbia) and Skopje (Macedonia). Ambrosia plants start flowering early in the morning and so Ambrosia pollen grains recorded during the day are likely to be from a local source. Conversely, Ambrosia pollen grains recorded at night or very early in the morning may have arrived via long-range transport. Ambrosia pollen counts were analysed in an attempt to find possible sources of the pollen and to identify Ambrosia pollen episodes suitable for further investigation using back-trajectory analysis. Diurnal variations and the magnitude of Ambrosia pollen counts during the 2007 Ambrosia pollen season showed that Novi Sad and Ruma (Pannonian Plain) and to a lesser degree Negotin (Balkans) were located near to sources of Ambrosia pollen. Mean bi-hourly Ambrosia pollen concentrations peaked during the middle of the day, and concentrations at these sites were notably higher than at Nis and Skopje. Three episodes were selected for further analysis using back-trajectory analysis. Back-trajectories showed that air masses brought Ambrosia pollen from the north to Nis and, on one occasion, to Skopje (Balkans) during the night and early morning after passing to the east of Novi Sad and Ruma during the previous day. The results of this study identified the southern part of the Pannonian Plain around Novi Sad and Ruma as being a potential source region for Ambrosia pollen recorded at Nis and Skopje in the Balkans.

Mapping the birch and grass pollen seasons in the UK using satellite sensor time-series.

Grass and birch pollen are two major causes of seasonal allergic rhinitis (hay fever) in the UK and parts of Europe affecting around 15-20% of the population. Current prediction of these allergens in the UK is based on (i) measurements of pollen concentrations at a limited number of monitoring stations across the country and (ii) general information about the phenological status of the vegetation. Thus, the current prediction methodology provides information at a coarse spatial resolution only. Most station-based approaches take into account only local observations of flowering, while only a small number of approaches take into account remote observations of land surface phenology. The systematic gathering of detailed information about vegetation status nationwide would therefore be of great potential utility. In particular, there exists an opportunity to use remote sensing to estimate phenological variables that are related to the flowering phenophase and, thus, pollen release. In turn, these estimates can be used to predict pollen release at a fine spatial resolution. In this study, time-series of MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI) data were used to predict two key phenological variables: the start of season and peak of season. A technique was then developed to estimate the flowering phenophase of birch and grass from the MTCI time-series. For birch, the timing of flowering was defined as the time after the start of the growing season when the MTCI value reached 25% of the maximum. Similarly, for grass this was defined as the time when the MTCI value reached 75% of the maximum. The predicted pollen release dates were validated with data from nine pollen monitoring stations in the UK. For both birch and grass, we obtained large positive correlations between the MTCI-derived start of pollen season and the start of the pollen season defined using station data, with a slightly larger correlation observed for birch than for grass. The technique was applied to produce detailed maps for the flowering of birch and grass across the UK for each of the years from 2003 to 2010. The results demonstrate that the remote sensing-based maps of onset flowering of birch and grass for the UK together with the pollen forecast from the Meteorology Office and National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit (NPARU) can potentially provide more accurate information to pollen allergy sufferers in the UK.

Ragweed (Ambrosia) pollen source inventory for Austria.

This study improves the spatial coverage of top-down Ambrosia pollen source inventories for Europe by expanding the methodology to Austria, a country that is challenging in terms of topography and the distribution of ragweed plants. The inventory combines annual ragweed pollen counts from 19 pollen-monitoring stations in Austria (2004-2013), 657 geographical observations of Ambrosia plants, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), local knowledge of ragweed ecology and CORINE land cover information from the source area. The highest mean annual ragweed pollen concentrations were generally recorded in the East of Austria where the highest densities of possible growth habitats for Ambrosia were situated. Approximately 99% of all observations of Ambrosia populations were below 745m. The European infection level varies from 0.1% at Freistadt in Northern Austria to 12.8% at Rosalia in Eastern Austria. More top-down Ambrosia pollen source inventories are required for other parts of Europe. CAPSULE ABSTRACT: A method for constructing top-down pollen source inventories for invasive ragweed plants in Austria, a country that is challenging in terms of topography and ragweed distribution.

Common ragweed: a threat to environmental health in Europe.

Common or short ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an annual herb belonging to the Asteraceae family that was described by Carl Linnaeus in the 18th century. It is a noxious invasive species that is an important weed in agriculture and a source of highly allergenic pollen. The importance placed on A. artemisiifolia is reflected by the number of international projects that have now been launched by the European Commission and the increasing number of publications being produced on this topic. This review paper examines existing knowledge about ragweed ecology, distribution and flowering phenology and the environmental health risk that this noxious plant poses in Europe. The paper also examines control measures used in the fight against it and state of the art methods for modelling atmospheric concentrations of this important aeroallergen. Common ragweed is an environmental health threat, not only in its native North America but also in many parts of the world where it has been introduced. In Europe, where the plant has now become naturalised and frequently forms part of the flora, the threat posed by ragweed has been identified and steps are being taken to reduce further geographical expansion and limit increases in population densities of the plant in order to protect the allergic population. This is particularly important when one considers possible range shifts, changes in flowering phenology and increases in the amount of pollen and allergenic potency that could be brought about by changes in climate.

Are the birch trees in Southern England a source of Betula pollen for North London?

Birch pollen is highly allergenic. Knowledge of daily variations, atmospheric transport and source areas of birch pollen is important for exposure studies and for warnings to the public, especially for large cities such as London. Our results show that broad-leaved forests with high birch tree densities are located to the south and west of London. Bi-hourly Betula pollen concentrations for all the days included in the study, and for all available days with high birch pollen counts (daily average birch pollen counts>80 grains/m3), show that, on average, there is a peak between 1400 hours and 1600 hours. Back-trajectory analysis showed that, on days with high birch pollen counts (n=60), 80% of air masses arriving at the time of peak diurnal birch pollen count approached North London from the south in a 180 degree arc from due east to due west. Detailed investigations of three Betula pollen episodes, with distinctly different diurnal patterns compared to the mean daily cycle, were used to illustrate how night-time maxima (2200-0400 hours) in Betula pollen counts could be the result of transport from distant sources or long transport times caused by slow moving air masses. We conclude that the Betula pollen recorded in North London could originate from sources found to the west and south of the city and not just trees within London itself. Possible sources outside the city include Continental Europe and the Betula trees within the broad-leaved forests of Southern England.

Examining Ambrosia pollen episodes at Poznan (Poland) using back-trajectory analysis.

The pollen grains of Ambrosia spp. are considered to be important aeroallergens in parts of southern and central Europe. Back-trajectories have been analysed with the aim of finding the likely sources of Ambrosia pollen grains that arrived at Poznan (Poland). Temporal variations in Ambrosia pollen at Poznan from 1995-2005 were examined in order to identify Ambrosia pollen episodes suitable for further investigation using back-trajectory analysis. The trajectories were calculated using the transport model within the Lagrangian air pollution model, ACDEP (Atmospheric Chemistry and Deposition). Analysis identified two separate populations in Ambrosia pollen episodes, those that peaked in the early morning between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m., and those that peaked in the afternoon between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m.. Six Ambrosia pollen episodes between 2001 and 2005 were examined using back-trajectory analysis. The results showed that Ambrosia pollen episodes that peaked in the early morning usually arrived at Poznan from a southerly direction after passing over southern Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, whereas air masses that brought Ambrosia pollen to Poznan during the afternoon arrived from a more easterly direction and predominantly stayed within the borders of Poland. Back-trajectory analysis has shown that there is a possibility that long-range transport brings Ambrosia pollen to Poznan from southern Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. There is also a likelihood that Ambrosia is present in Poland, as shown by the arrival of pollen during the afternoon that originated primarily from within the country.

The long-range transport of birch (Betula) pollen from Poland and Germany causes significant pre-season concentrations in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Birch pollen is highly allergic and has the potential for episodically long-range transport. Such episodes will in general occur out of the main pollen season. During this time, allergy patients are unprotected and high pollen concentrations will therefore have a full allergenic impact. OBJECTIVE: To show that Denmark obtains significant quantities of birch pollen from Poland or Germany before the local trees start to flower. METHODS: Simultaneous observations of pollen concentrations and phenology in the potential source area in Poland as well as in Denmark were performed in 2006. The Danish pollen records from 2000 to 2006 were analysed for possible long-range transport episodes and analysed with trajectories in combination with a birch tree source map. RESULTS: In 2006, high pollen concentrations were observed in Denmark with bi-hourly concentrations above 500 grains/m(3) before the local trees began to flower. Poland was identified as a source region. The analysis of the historical pollen record from Copenhagen shows significant pre-seasonal pollen episodes almost every year from 2000 to 2006. In all episodes, trajectory analysis identified Germany or Poland as source regions. CONCLUSION: Denmark obtains significant pre-seasonal quantities of birch pollen from either Poland or Germany almost every year. Forecasting of birch pollen quantities relevant to allergy patients must therefore, take into account long-range transport. This cannot be based on measured concentrations in Denmark. The most effective way to improve the current Danish pollen forecasts is to extend the current forecasts with atmospheric transport models that take into account pollen emission and transport from countries such as Germany and Poland. Unless long-range transport is taken into account, pre-seasonal pollen episodes will have a full allergic impact, as the allergy patients in general will be unprotected during that time.