RESUMO
Decarbonisation of the iron and steel (I&S) industry is crucial in the efforts to meet the EU GHG emission reduction objectives in 2030 2050. Promoting decarbonisation in this sector will necessarily require the identification, development, and diffusion of breakthrough technologies for I&S production. This paper uses an approach inspired by the Technology Innovation System (TIS) to analyse the development of technology in the EU I&S industry and identify potential avenues of its decarbonisation. We have described key elements of the TIS, analyse the functioning of these elements and their interactions in a more general context of innovation dynamics and policy design; The focus has been put on the role of actors and the identification of the main specific blocking and inducement mechanism in the TIS to better explain its functioning. Risks and uncertainties have also been discussed. We argue that deep decarbonisation in the I&S industry is feasible but its TIS requires firm support, mostly political, to finance intensive R&D and reduce the business risk. To this end, all actors shall support more effectively the invention and implementation of new radical production technologies. The recommendations are mostly addressed to politicians although stressing the importance of collaboration of all actors.
RESUMO
This article addresses the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on Poland's conventional energy sector in 2008-2020 and further till 2050. Poland is a country with over 80% dependence on coal in the power sector being under political pressure of the European Union's (EU) ambitious climate policy. The impact of the increase of the European Emission Allowance (EUA) price on fossil fuel power sector has been modelled for different scenarios. The innovation of this article consists in proposing a methodology of estimation actual costs and benefits of power stations in a country with a heavily coal-dependent power sector in the process of transition to a low-carbon economy. Strong political and economic interdependence of coal and power sector has been demonstrated as well as the impact caused by the EU ETS participation in different technology groups of power plants. It has been shown that gas-fuelled combined heat and power units are less vulnerable to the EU ETS-related costs, whereas the hard coal-fired plants may lose their profitability soon after 2020. Lignite power plants, despite their high emissivity, may longer remain in operation owing to low operational costs. Additionally, the results of long-term, up to 2050, modelling of Poland's energy sector supported an unavoidable need of deep decarbonisation of the power sector to meet the post-Paris climate objectives. It has been concluded that investing in coal-based power capacity may lead to a carbon lock-in of the power sector. Finally, the overall costs of such a transformation have been discussed and confronted with the financial support offered by the EU. The whole consideration has been made in a wide context of changes ongoing globally in energy markets and compared with some other countries seeking transformation paths from coal. Poland's case can serve as a lesson for all countries trying to reduce coal dependence in power generation. Reforms in the energy sector shall from the very beginning be an essential part of a sustainable transition of the whole nation's economy. They must scale the power capacity to the future demand avoiding stranded costs. The reforms must be wide-ranging, based on a wide political consensus and not biased against the coal sector. Future energy mix and corresponding technologies shall be carefully designed, matched and should remain stable in the long-term perspective. Coal-based power capacity being near the end of its lifetime provides an economically viable option to commence a fuel switch and the following technology replacement. Real benefits and costs of the energy transition shall be fairly allocated to all stakeholders and communicated to the society. The social costs and implications in coal-dependent regions may be high, especially in the short-term perspective, but then the transformation will bring profits to the whole society.