Preparedness and response against diseases with epidemic potential in the European Union: a qualitative case study of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and poliomyelitis in five member states.

BACKGROUND: EU Decision 1082/2013/EU on serious cross-border health threats provides a legal basis for collaboration between EU Member States, and between international and European level institutions on preparedness, prevention, and mitigation in the event of a public health emergency. The Decision provides a context for the present study, which aims to identify good practices and lessons learned in preparedness and response to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) (in UK, Greece, and Spain) and poliomyelitis (in Poland and Cyprus). METHODS: Based on a documentary review, followed by five week-long country visits involving a total of 61 interviews and group discussions with experts from both the health and non-health sectors, this qualitative case study has investigated six issues related to preparedness and response to MERS and poliomyelitis: national plans and overall preparedness capacity; training and exercises; risk communication; linking policy and implementation; interoperability between the health and non-health sectors; and cross-border collaboration. RESULTS: Preparedness and response plans for MERS and poliomyelitis were in place in the participating countries, with a high level of technical expertise available to implement them. Nevertheless, formal evaluation of the responses to previous public health emergencies have sometimes been limited, so lessons learned may not be reflected in updated plans, thereby risking mistakes being repeated in future. The nature and extent of inter-sectoral collaboration varied according to the sectors involved, with those sectors that have traditionally had good collaboration (e.g. animal health and food safety), as well as those that have a financial incentive for controlling infectious diseases (e.g. agriculture, tourism, and air travel) seen as most likely to have integrated public health preparedness and response plans. Although the formal protocols for inter-sectoral collaboration were not always up to date, good personal relations were reported within the relevant professional networks, which could be brought into play in the event of a public health emergency. Cross-border collaboration was greatly facilitated if the neighbouring country was a fellow EU Member State. CONCLUSIONS: Infectious disease outbreaks remain as an ongoing threat. Efforts are required to ensure that core public health capacities for the full range of preparedness and response activities are sustained.

Seasonality and geographical spread of respiratory syncytial virus epidemics in 15 European countries, 2010 to 2016.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is considered the most common pathogen causing severe lower respiratory tract infections among infants and young children. We describe the seasonality and geographical spread of RSV infection in 15 countries of the European Union and European Economic Area. We performed a retrospective descriptive study of weekly laboratory-confirmed RSV detections between weeks 40/2010 and 20/2016, in patients investigated for influenza-like illness, acute respiratory infection or following the clinician's judgment. Six countries reported 4,230 sentinel RSV laboratory diagnoses from primary care and 14 countries reported 156,188 non-sentinel laboratory diagnoses from primary care or hospitals. The median length of the RSV season based on sentinel and non-sentinel surveillance was 16 (range: 9-24) and 18 (range: 8-24) weeks, respectively. The median peak weeks for sentinel and non-sentinel detections were week 4 (range: 48 to 11) and week 4.5 (range: 49 to 17), respectively. RSV detections peaked later (r = 0.56; p = 0.0360) and seasons lasted longer with increasing latitude (r = 0.57; p = 0.0329). Our data demonstrated regular seasonality with moderate correlation between timing of the epidemic and increasing latitude of the country. This study supports the use of RSV diagnostics within influenza or other surveillance systems to monitor RSV seasonality and geographical spread.

Dominant influenza A(H3N2) and B/Yamagata virus circulation in EU/EEA, 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons, respectively.

We use surveillance data to describe influenza A and B virus circulation over two consecutive seasons with excess all-cause mortality in Europe, especially in people aged 60 years and older. Influenza A(H3N2) virus dominated in 2016/17 and B/Yamagata in 2017/18. The latter season was prolonged with positivity rates above 50% among sentinel detections for at least 12 weeks. With a current west-east geographical spread, high influenza activity might still be expected in eastern Europe.

Lessons learned by surveillance during the tail-end of the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, June-October 2015: a case series.

BACKGROUND: By the end of the 2013­2016 West African Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreaks, a total of 3814 cases (probable and confirmed) and 2544 deaths were reported in Guinea. Clearly, surveillance activities aiming at stopping human-to-human transmission have been the breakthrough of EVD outbreak management, but their application has been at times easier said than done. This article presents five confirmed or probable EVD cases that arose in Conakry towards the end of the Guinea epidemic, which demonstrate flaws in surveillance and follow-up. CASE PRESENTATION: For case 1, safe burial requirements were not followed. For cases 1 and 2, negative Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) results were interpreted as no infection. For the first case, the sample may have not been taken properly while for the second the disease was possibly at its early stage. Case 3 was stopped at a border health checkpoint and despite her high temperature she was allowed to continue the bus journey. For case 4, an oral swab sample was supposedly taken after death but could not be found for retrospective testing. Despite characteristic symptomatology, case 5 was not identified as a suspect case for as long as 3 weeks. CONCLUSION: In epidemic contexts, health systems must be able to track all samples of suspect cases and deaths, regardless of their laboratory results. Social mobilization in communities and training in health care facilities must be strengthened at the tail of an outbreak, to avoid the natural slackening of disease surveillance, in particular for long-lasting and deadly epidemics.

Computerized general practice based networks yield comparable performance with sentinel data in monitoring epidemiological time-course of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness.

BACKGROUND: Computerized morbidity registration networks might serve as early warning systems in a time where natural epidemics such as the H1N1 flu can easily spread from one region to another. METHODS: In this contribution we examine whether general practice based broad-spectrum computerized morbidity registration networks have the potential to act as a valid surveillance instrument of frequently occurring diseases. We compare general practice based computerized data assessing the frequency of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) with data from a well established case-specific sentinel network, the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS). The overall frequency and trends of weekly ILI and ARI data are compared using both networks. RESULTS: Detection of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness occurs equally fast in EISS and the computerized network. The overall frequency data for ARI are the same for both networks, the overall trends are similar, but the increases and decreases in frequency do not occur in exactly the same weeks. For ILI, the overall rate was slightly higher for the computerized network population, especially before the increase of ILI, the overall trend was almost identical and the increases and decreases occur in the same weeks for both networks. CONCLUSIONS: Computerized morbidity registration networks are a valid tool for monitoring frequent occurring respiratory diseases and the detection of sudden outbreaks.

Alternating patterns of seasonal influenza activity in the WHO European Region following the 2009 pandemic, 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Influenza virus infections are common and lead to substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. We characterized the first eight influenza epidemics since the 2009 influenza pandemic by describing the distribution of viruses and epidemics temporally and geographically across the WHO European Region. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed laboratory-confirmed influenza detections in ambulatory patients from sentinel sites. Data were aggregated by reporting entity and season (weeks 40-20) for 2010-2011 to 2017-2018. We explored geographical spread using correlation coefficients. RESULTS: There was variation in the regional influenza epidemics during the study period. Influenza A virus subtypes alternated in dominance, except for 2013-2014 during which both cocirculated, and only one season (2017-2018) was B virus dominant. The median start week for epidemics in the Region was week 50, the time to the peak ranged between four and 13 weeks, and the duration of the epidemic ranged between 19 and 25 weeks. There was evidence of a west-to-east spread across the Region during epidemics in 2010-2011 (r = .365; P = .019), 2012-2013 (r = .484; P = .001), 2014-2015 (r = .423; P = .006), and 2017-2018 (r = .566; P < .001) seasons. Variation in virus distribution and timing existed within reporting entities across seasons and across reporting entities for a given season. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated influenza detection data from sentinel surveillance sites by season between 2010 and 2018 have been presented for the European Region for the first time. Substantial diversity exists between influenza epidemics. These data can inform prevention and control efforts at national, sub-national, and international levels. Aggregated, regional surveillance data from early affected reporting entities may provide an early warning function and be helpful for early season forecasting efforts.

European Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning: A Review of National Plans, July 2016.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) commenced in April 2009. Robust planning and preparedness are needed to minimize the impact of a pandemic. This study aims to review if key elements of pandemic preparedness are included in national plans of European countries. Key elements were identified before and during the evaluations of the 2009 pandemic and are defined in this study by 42 items. These items are used to score a total of 28 publicly available national pandemic influenza plans. We found that plans published before the 2009 influenza pandemic score lower than plans published after the pandemic. Plans from countries with a small population size score significantly lower compared to national plans from countries with a big population (P <.05). We stress that the review of written plans does not reflect the actual preparedness level, as the level of preparedness entails much more than the existence of a plan. However, we do identify areas of improvement for the written plans, such as including aspects on the recovery and transition phase and several opportunities to improve coordination and communication, including a description of the handover of leadership from health to wider sector management and communication activities during the pre-pandemic phase. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:582-592).

Determinants of Fatal Outcome in Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Units With Influenza, European Union 2009-2017.

BACKGROUND: Morbidity, severity, and mortality associated with annual influenza epidemics are of public health concern. We analyzed surveillance data on hospitalized laboratory-confirmed influenza cases admitted to intensive care units to identify common determinants for fatal outcome and inform and target public health prevention strategies, including risk communication. METHODS: We performed a descriptive analysis and used Poisson regression models with robust variance to estimate the association of age, sex, virus (sub)type, and underlying medical condition with fatal outcome using European Union data from 2009 to 2017. RESULTS: Of 13 368 cases included in the basic dataset, 2806 (21%) were fatal. Age ≥40 years and infection with influenza A virus were associated with fatal outcome. Of 5886 cases with known underlying medical conditions and virus A subtype included in a more detailed analysis, 1349 (23%) were fatal. Influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 or A(H3N2) infection, age ≥60 years, cancer, human immunodeficiency virus infection and/or other immune deficiency, and heart, kidney, and liver disease were associated with fatal outcome; the risk of death was lower for patients with chronic lung disease and for pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS: This study re-emphasises the importance of preventing influenza in the elderly and tailoring strategies to risk groups with underlying medical conditions.

Influenza surveillance in Europe: comparing intensity levels calculated using the moving epidemic method.

OBJECTIVES: Although influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) surveillance are well established in Europe, the comparability of intensity among countries and seasons remains an unresolved challenge. The objective is to compare the intensity of ILI and ARI in some European countries. DESIGN AND SETTING: Weekly ILI and ARI incidence rates and proportion of primary care consultations were modeled in 28 countries for the 1996/1997-2013/2014 seasons using the moving epidemic method (MEM). We calculated the epidemic threshold and three intensity thresholds, which delimit five intensity levels: baseline, low, medium, high, and very high. The intensity of 2013/2014 season is described and compared by country. RESULTS: The lowest ILI epidemic thresholds appeared in Sweden and Estonia (below 10 cases per 100 000) and the highest in Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Serbia, and Slovakia (above 100 per 100 000). The 2009/2010 season was the most intense, with 35% of the countries showing high or very high intensity levels. The European epidemic period in season 2013/2014 started in January 2014 in Spain, Poland, and Greece. The intensity was between low and medium and only Greece reached the high intensity level, in weeks 7 to 9/2014. Some countries remained at the baseline level throughout the entire surveillance period. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemic and intensity thresholds varied by country. Influenza-like illnesses and ARI levels normalized by MEM in 2013/2014 showed that the intensity of the season in Europe was between low and medium in most of the countries. Comparing intensity among seasons or countries is essential for understanding patterns in seasonal epidemics. An automated standardized model for comparison should be implemented at national and international levels.

Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method.

BACKGROUND: Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. OBJECTIVES: (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. METHODS: The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0-4·5). CONCLUSIONS: The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe.

Surveillance of hospitalised severe cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and related fatalities in nine EU countries in 2010-2011.

A few months into the 2009 influenza pandemic, nine European countries implemented case-based surveillance of hospitalised severe influenza infections. In the present study, we assess the association between patient characteristics, in particular underlying conditions, and the severity level of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection during the 2010-2011 season. Patient age, the presence of underlying conditions, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the need for ventilation were significantly associated with the severity of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. Despite limitations essentially because of the heterogeneity of the data reported, this study provides insight into severe influenza cases.

Lessons learnt from pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 influenza vaccination. Highlights of a European workshop in Brussels (22 March 2010).

This European workshop identified a number of lessons learnt in the field of vaccine licensure, prioritization of target groups, communication on pandemic vaccines, implementation of vaccination and safety monitoring. The mild severity of the pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 influenza virus influenced the perception of pandemic vaccines, as previous pandemic preparedness had anticipated a more virulent virus. This vaccination experience provides an important opportunity for research on the long-term immunogenicity and safety of pandemic vaccines in pregnant women and children, as well as on the long-term safety of adjuvants. Preparedness for future pandemics could involve improved decision-making on target groups and increased communication on vaccine safety.

Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in smuggled Thai eagles, Belgium.

We report the isolation and characterization of a highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 virus from Crested Hawk-Eagles smuggled into Europe by air travel. A screening performed in human and avian contacts indicated no dissemination occurred. Illegal movements of birds are a major threat for the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza.