Longitudinal Follow-Up of Fibrosis-4 in Patients at Risk of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease Receiving Low-Dose Methotrexate Treatment.

Several noninvasive liver fibrosis tests have been developed and appear to predict the severity of fibrosis, possibly replacing invasive liver biopsy as a monitoring tool.1 The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score originally was proposed to help assess liver fibrosis in patients with human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus co-infection.1 FIB-4 has been used widely to monitor the severity of liver fibrosis, especially in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease,2 now termed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).3.

Identifying the association between serum urate levels and gout flares in patients taking urate-lowering therapy: a post hoc cohort analysis of the CARES trial with consideration of dropout.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate gout flare rates based on repeated serum urate (SU) measurements in a randomised controlled trial of urate-lowering therapy (ULT), accounting for dropout and death. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis using data from Cardiovascular Safety of Febuxostat or Allopurinol in Patients with Gout, which randomised participants to febuxostat or allopurinol, titrated to target SU <6 mg/dL with flare prophylaxis for 6 months. SU was categorised as ≤3.9, 4.0-5.9, 6.0-7.9, 8.0-9.9 or ≥ 10 mg/dL at each 3-6 month follow-up. The primary outcome was gout flare. Poisson regression models, adjusted for covariates and factors related to participant retention versus dropout, estimated gout flare incidence rate ratios by time-varying SU category. RESULTS: Among 6183 participants, the median age was 65 years and 84% were male. Peak gout flare rates for all SU categories were observed in months 0-6, coinciding with the initiation of ULT and months 6-12 after stopping prophylaxis. Flare rates were similar across SU groups in the initial year of ULT. During months 36-72, a dose-response relationship was observed between the SU category and flare rate. Lower flare rates were observed when SU ≤3.9 mg/dL and greater rates when SU ≥10 mg/dL, compared with SU 4.0-5.9 mg/dL (p for trend <0.01). CONCLUSION: Gout flare rates were persistently higher when SU ≥6 mg/dL after the first year of ULT after accounting for censoring. The spike in flares in all categories after stopping prophylaxis suggests a longer duration of prophylaxis may be warranted.

Gout risk in adults with pre-diabetes initiating metformin.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the strong association between gout and pre-diabetes, the role of metformin in gout among individuals with pre-diabetes remains uncertain. We compared the incidence rates of gout in adults with pre-diabetes starting metformin with those not using antidiabetic treatments. METHODS: We conducted a new-user, propensity score-matched cohort study using electronic health records from an academic health system (2007-2022). Pre-diabetes was defined based on haemoglobin A1c levels. Metformin users were identified and followed from the first metformin prescription date. Non-users of antidiabetic medications were matched to metformin users based on propensity score and the start of follow-up. The primary outcome was incident gout. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the HR for metformin. Linear regression analyses assessed the association between metformin use and changes in serum urate (SU) or C-reactive protein (CRP). RESULTS: We identified 25 064 individuals with pre-diabetes and propensity score-matched 1154 metformin initiators to 13 877 non-users. Baseline characteristics were well balanced (all standardised mean differences <0.1). The median follow-up was 3.9 years. The incidence rate of gout per 1000 person-years was lower in metformin users 7.1 (95% CI 5.1 to 10) compared with non-users 9.5 (95% CI 8.8 to 10.2). Metformin initiation was associated with a reduced relative risk of gout (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.96). No relationship was found between metformin and changes in SU or CRP. CONCLUSIONS: Metformin use was associated with a reduced risk of gout among adults with pre-diabetes, suggesting that metformin may be important in lowering gout risk in individuals with pre-diabetes.

Disease activity of rheumatoid arthritis and kidney function decline: a large prospective registry study.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common comorbidity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The association of longitudinal RA disease activity with long-term kidney function has remained uncertain. METHOD: We analysed a multicentre prospective RA registry in the USA from 2001 to 2022. The exposure was updated time-averaged Clinical Disease Activity Index (TA-CDAI) categories from study enrolment. The primary outcome was a longitudinal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change. Secondary outcomes included developments of CKD stage G3a (eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and stage G3b (eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73 m2). Results were adjusted for relevant time-fixed and time-varying covariates. RESULTS: 31 129 patients (median age: 58.0 years, female: 76.3%, median eGFR: 90.7 mL/min/1.73 m2) contributed 234 973 visits and 146 778 person-years of follow-up. Multivariable mixed-effect linear model showed an average annual eGFR decline during follow-up in the TA-CDAI-remission group of -0.83 mL/min/1.73 m2 and estimated additional annual declines (95% CI) of -0.09 (-0.15 to -0.03) in low, -0.17 (-0.23 to -0.10) in moderate and -0.18 (-0.27 to -0.08) mL/min/1.73 m2 in high disease activity patients. Compared with TA-CDAI remission, adjusted HRs (95% CI) for CKD stage G3a during follow-up were 1.15 (1.01 to 1.30) in low, 1.22 (1.06 to 1.40) in moderate and 1.27 (1.05 to 1.52) in high disease activity; for CKD stage G3b, 1.22 (0.84 to 1.76) in low, 1.66 (1.12 to 2.45) in moderate and 1.93 (1.16 to 3.20) in high disease activity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher RA disease activity was associated with accelerated eGFR decline and increased risk of clinically relevant kidney dysfunction. Future intervention studies should attempt to replicate the association between RA disease activity and eGFR.

Changes in alcohol intake and serum urate changes: longitudinal analyses of annual medical examination database.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the established cross-sectional association between alcohol intake and serum urate (SU), its longitudinal association remains unknown. This study aimed to determine whether changes in alcohol intake have a clinically relevant association with SU change. METHOD: We conducted retrospective analyses using systematically collected annual medical examination data from October 2012 to October 2022 in a Japanese preventive medicine centre. The exposure was changes in alcohol intake between two consecutive visits. The association of SU changes with alcohol intake changes was estimated by mixed-effect linear regression with adjustment for relevant covariates. RESULTS: We analysed 63 486 participants (median age, 47.0 years; 55% women; 58.6% regular alcohol drinkers with a median of 1.4 drinks/day) with 370 572 visits. The median SU level was 5.3 mg/dL, and 506 (0.8%) participants had diagnoses of gout or hyperuricemia without medication use during the study period. Decreasing one daily alcohol intake had a clinically small association with SU changes (-0.019 (95% CI: -0.021 to -0.017) mg/dL). Beer had the largest association with SU (-0.036 (95% CI: -0.039 to -0.032) mg/dL for one beer decrease). Complete discontinuation of any alcohol from a mean of 0.8 drinks/day was associated with -0.056 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.068 to -0.043) decrease in SU; the association became larger in hyperuricemic participants (-0.110 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.154 to -0.066) for alcohol discontinuation from a mean of 1.0 drinks/day). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed changes in alcohol intake had small associations with SU change at the general Japanese population level. Complete discontinuation of alcohol in hyperuricemic participants had only modest improvement in SU.

Earlier vs. later time period of COVID-19 infection and emergent autoimmune signs, symptoms, and serologies.

OBJECTIVE: Autoantibodies and autoimmune diseases after SARS-CoV-2 infection are widely reported. Given evolving variants, milder infections, and increasing population vaccination, we hypothesized that SARS-CoV-2 infection earlier in the pandemic would be associated with more autoimmune connective tissue disease (CTD) symptoms and immunologic abnormalities. METHODS: Patients ≥18 years old with COVID-19 3/1/2020-8/15/2022 completed the CTD Screening Questionnaire and were tested for 27 autoimmune serologies, SARS-CoV-2 serologies, cell-bound complement activation products (CB-CAPs), and T and B lymphocyte immunophenotypes by flow cytometry. We assessed relationships between symptoms, serologies, and immunophenotypes in earlier (3/1/2020-1/31/2021) vs. later (2/1/2021-8/15/2022) periods, with different predominating SARS-CoV-2 viruses. RESULTS: 57 subjects had earlier and 23 had later pandemic COVID-19. 35 % of earlier vs. 17 % of later pandemic patients had CTD symptoms (p 0.18). More patients were antinuclear antibody (ANA) positive (44 % vs. 13 %, p 0.01) and had lupus anticoagulant (11 % vs. 4 %, p 0.67). After adjustment for age, race, and sex, earlier (vs. later) COVID-19 was associated with increased ANA positivity (OR 4.60, 95%CI 1.17, 18.15). No subjects had positive CB-CAPs. T and B cell immunophenotypes and SARS-CoV-2 serologies did not differ by group. In heatmap analyses, higher autoantibody variety was seen among those with infection in the early pandemic. CONCLUSION: In this sample, having COVID-19 infection in the earlier (pre-2/1/2021) vs. later pandemic was associated with more CTD symptoms, ANA positivity, and autoantibody reactivities. Earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in a less vaccinated population with less natural immunity may have been more immunogenic.

Prevalence and Characteristics of Adults with Difficult-to-Treat Rheumatoid Arthritis in a Large Patient Registry.

OBJECTIVES: An estimated 5-20% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) fail multiple treatments and are considered "difficult-to-treat" (D2T), posing a substantial clinical challenge for rheumatologists. A European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) task force proposed a definition of D2T-RA in 2021. We applied EULAR's D2T definition in a cohort of patients with established RA to assess prevalence and we compared clinical characteristics of participants with D2T-RA with matched comparisons. METHODS: Data from the longitudinal Brigham and Women's Hospital Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study (BRASS) registry was used. Participants were classified as D2T if they met EULAR's definition. A comparison group of non-D2T RA patients were matched 2:1 to every D2T patient, and differences in characteristics were evaluated in descriptive analyses. Prevalence rates of D2T were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We estimated the prevalence of D2T-RA to be 14.4 (95% CI: 12.8-16.3 per 100 persons) among 1,581 participants with RA, and 22.3 (95% CI: 19.9-25.0 per 100 persons) among 1,021 who were biologic/targeted synthetic DMARD experienced. We observed several differences in demographics, comorbidities, and RA disease activity between D2T-RA and non-D2T RA comparisons. Varying EULAR sub-criteria among all participants in BRASS resulted in a range of D2T-RA prevalence rates, from 0.6-17.5 per 100 persons. CONCLUSION: EULAR's proposed definition of D2T-RA identifies patients with RA who have not achieved treatment targets. Future research should explore heterogeneity in these patients and evaluate outcomes to inform the design of future studies aimed at developing more effective RA management protocols.

Longitudinal analysis of serum urate in prediabetic phase.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the well-established association between prediabetes and hyperuricaemia, knowledge about serum urate (SU) trends during the prediabetic phase is limited. Therefore, we aimed to assess the longitudinal changes of SU in individuals with prediabetes. METHODS: Individuals with prediabetes, defined by initial haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels between 5.7% and 6.4%, were identified using electronic health records from an academic health system (2007-2022). We required at least one SU test before and after the prediabetes diagnosis. The primary outcome was the longitudinal SU trends during the follow-up period, estimated with a multivariable mixed-effects model. Patients were censored at diabetes onset. Marginal effects of covariates on SU changes were estimated. Subsequent analyses examined SU variations in subgroups stratified by age, sex, body mass index (BMI), HbA1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and metformin use. RESULTS: Out of 25 526 individuals with prediabetes, 1,521 met the SU cohort requirements, contributing to 6,832 SU observations. At baseline, median age was 63 years and 40% were female. Median values were SU 6.3 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.9% and BMI 30 kg/m2. Median follow-up was 7.4 years. Older age, male sex, greater BMI, and higher HbA1c were significant predictors of increased longitudinal SU levels. Individuals with a BMI ≥30 kg/m2 exhibited higher SU levels compared with those with lower BMI values. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with prediabetes, several baseline variables were significant predictors of increased SU levels over time. These longitudinal trends in SU, support the potential for early intervention during the prediabetic phase, possibly reducing the risk of gout.

Association of the multi-biomarker disease activity score with arterial 18-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and atherosclerosis share many common inflammatory pathways. We studied whether a multi-biomarker panel for RA disease activity (MBDA) would associate with changes in arterial inflammation in an interventional trial. METHODS: In the TARGET Trial, RA patients with active disease despite methotrexate were randomly assigned to the addition of either a TNF inhibitor or sulfasalazine+hydroxychloroquine (triple therapy). Baseline and 24-week follow-up 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography scans were assessed for change in arterial inflammation measured as the maximal arterial target-to-blood background ratio of FDG uptake in the most diseased segment of the carotid arteries or aorta (MDS-TBRmax). The MBDA test, measured at baseline and weeks 6, 18, and 24, was assessed for its association with the change in MDS-TBRmax. RESULTS: Interpretable scans were available at baseline and week 24 for n = 112 patients. The MBDA score at week 24 was significantly correlated with the change in MDR-TBRmax (Spearman's rho = 0.239; p= 0.011) and remained significantly associated after adjustment for relevant confounders. Those with low MBDA at week 24 had a statistically significant adjusted reduction in arterial inflammation of 0.35 units vs no significant reduction in those who did not achieve low MBDA. Neither DAS28-CRP nor CRP predicted change in arterial inflammation. The MBDA component with the strongest association with change in arterial inflammation was serum amyloid A (SAA). CONCLUSIONS: Among treated RA patients, achieved MBDA predicts of changes in arterial inflammation. Achieving low MBDA at 24 weeks was associated with clinically meaningful reductions in arterial inflammation, regardless of treatment.

The effect of starting metformin on bone mineral density among women with type 2 diabetes in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN).

We examined longitudinal changes in BMD among women in the mid-life starting metformin. Study subjects were 57 years old (mean), and 36% were White. Women initiating metformin were similar to noninitiators. During the 3-year follow-up, BMD loss at all anatomic areas was similar between groups and in subgroups including baseline fasting blood glucose. PURPOSE/INTRODUCTION: Women with type 2 diabetes have higher bone mineral density (BMD), experience slower BMD loss, but have increased fracture risk. Data regarding the effect of metformin on BMD remain discordant. We examined longitudinal changes in BMD among women in the mid-life starting metformin. METHODS: Participants in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a diverse community-based US cohort, with BMD measurements were evaluated. Propensity score matching helped balance baseline characteristics of metformin initiators versus noninitiators. Mixed model regression tested the change in BMD between groups. RESULTS: Subjects (n = 248) were 57.4 years old (mean), and 35.9% were White. Women initiating metformin (n = 124) were similar to noninitiators (n = 124) in age and race/ethnicity. During the median 3-year follow-up, BMD loss at all anatomic areas was similar between the metformin initiators and nonusers (all p > 0.3). Subgroup analyses including baseline fasting blood glucose showed no between-group differences. Initiation of metformin (vs. not) in peri-menopausal women was not associated with BMD changes. CONCLUSIONS: Women in the mid-life starting metformin had longitudinal changes in BMD very similar to other women not starting metformin.

Improving the accuracy of automated gout flare ascertainment using natural language processing of electronic health records and linked Medicare claims data.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine whether integrating concepts from the notes from the electronic health record (EHR) data using natural language processing (NLP) could improve the identification of gout flares. METHODS: Using Medicare claims linked with EHR, we selected gout patients who initiated the urate-lowering therapy (ULT). Patients' 12-month baseline period and on-treatment follow-up were segmented into 1-month units. We retrieved EHR notes for months with gout diagnosis codes and processed notes for NLP concepts. We selected a random sample of 500 patients and reviewed each of their notes for the presence of a physician-documented gout flare. Months containing at least 1 note mentioning gout flares were considered months with events. We used 60% of patients to train predictive models with LASSO. We evaluated the models by the area under the curve (AUC) in the validation data and examined positive/negative predictive values (P/NPV). RESULTS: We extracted and labeled 839 months of follow-up (280 with gout flares). The claims-only model selected 20 variables (AUC = 0.69). The NLP concept-only model selected 15 (AUC = 0.69). The combined model selected 32 claims variables and 13 NLP concepts (AUC = 0.73). The claims-only model had a PPV of 0.64 [0.50, 0.77] and an NPV of 0.71 [0.65, 0.76], whereas the combined model had a PPV of 0.76 [0.61, 0.88] and an NPV of 0.71 [0.65, 0.76]. CONCLUSION: Adding NLP concept variables to claims variables resulted in a small improvement in the identification of gout flares. Our data-driven claims-only model and our combined claims/NLP-concept model outperformed existing rule-based claims algorithms reliant on medication use, diagnosis, and procedure codes.

Disagreement between pharmacy claims and direct interview to identify patients with non-adherence to chronic cardiometabolic medications.

BACKGROUND: Accurate methods of identifying patients with suboptimal adherence to cardiometabolic medications are needed, and each approach has benefits and tradeoffs. METHODS: We used data from a large trial of patients with poorly controlled cardiometabolic disease and evidence of medication non-adherence measured using pharmacy claims data whose adherence was subsequently assessed during a telephone consultation with a clinical pharmacist. We then evaluated if the pharmacist assessment agreed with the non-adherence measured using claims. When pharmacist and claims assessments disagreed, we identified reasons why claims were insufficient and used multivariable modified Poisson regression to identify patient characteristics associated with disagreement. RESULTS: Of 1,069 patients identified as non-adherent using claims (proportion of days covered [PDC] <80%), 646 (60.4%) were confirmed as non-adherent on pharmacist interview. For the 423 patients (39.6%) where the interview disagreed with the claims, the most common reasons were paying cash or using an alternate insurance (36.6%), medication discontinuation or regimen change (32.8%), and recently becoming adherent (26.7%). Compared to patients whose claims and interview both showed non-adherence, patients whose interview disagreed with claims were less likely to miss outpatient office visits (RR:0.91, 95%CI:0.85-0.97) and more likely to have a baseline PDC above the median (RR:1.35, 95%CI:1.10-1.64). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients identified as non-adherent by claims, 39.6% were observed to be adherent when assessed during pharmacist consultation. This discrepancy was largely driven by paying out-of-pocket, using alternative insurance, or medication discontinuation or change. These findings have important implications for using pharmacy claims to identify and intervene upon medication non-adherence.

Reducing cardiovascular risk with immunomodulators: a randomised active comparator trial among patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Recent large-scale randomised trials demonstrate that immunomodulators reduce cardiovascular (CV) events among the general population. However, it is uncertain whether these effects apply to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and if certain treatment strategies in RA reduce CV risk to a greater extent. METHODS: Patients with active RA despite use of methotrexate were randomly assigned to addition of a tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor (TNFi) or addition of sulfasalazine and hydroxychloroquine (triple therapy) for 24 weeks. Baseline and follow-up 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/CT scans were assessed for change in arterial inflammation, an index of CV risk, measured as an arterial target-to-background ratio (TBR) in the carotid arteries and aorta. RESULTS: 115 patients completed the protocol. The two treatment groups were well balanced with a median age of 58 years, 71% women, 57% seropositive and a baseline disease activity score in 28 joints of 4.8 (IQR 4.0, 5.6). Baseline TBR was similar across the two groups. Significant TBR reductions were observed in both groups-ΔTNFi: -0.24 (SD=0.51), Δtriple therapy: -0.19 (SD=0.51)-without difference between groups (difference in Δs: -0.02, 95% CI -0.19 to 0.15, p=0.79). While disease activity was significantly reduced across both treatment groups, there was no association with change in TBR (ß=0.04, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.10). CONCLUSION: We found that addition of either a TNFi or triple therapy resulted in clinically important improvements in vascular inflammation. However, the addition of a TNFi did not reduce arterial inflammation more than triple therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02374021.

Effect of tapered versus stable treatment with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors on disease flares in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in remission: a randomised, open label, non-inferiority trial.

OBJECTIVES: Many patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) require treatment with tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) to reach remission. It is debated whether tapering of TNFi to discontinuation should be considered in sustained remission. The aim of ARCTIC REWIND TNFi was to assess the effect of tapering TNFi to withdrawal compared with stable treatment on the risk of disease activity flares in patients with RA in remission ≥1 year. METHODS: This randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial was undertaken at nine Norwegian rheumatology departments. Patients with RA in remission ≥12 months on stable TNFi therapy were allocated by computer-based block-randomisation to tapering to discontinuation of TNFi or stable TNFi. Conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic co-medication was unchanged. The primary endpoint was disease flare during the 12-month study period (non-inferiority margin 20%), assessed in the per-protocol population. RESULTS: Between June 2013 and January 2019, 99 patients were enrolled and 92 received the allocated treatment strategy. Eighty-four patients were included in the per-protocol population. In the tapering TNFi group, 27/43 (63%) experienced a flare during 12 months, compared with 2/41 (5%) in the stable TNFi group; risk difference (95% CI) 58% (42% to 74%). The tapering strategy was not non-inferior to continued stable treatment. The number of total/serious adverse events was 49/3 in the tapering group, 57/2 in the stable group. CONCLUSION: In patients with RA in remission for more than 1 year while using TNFi, an increase in flare rate was reported in those who tapered TNFi to discontinuation. However, most regained remission after reinstatement of full-dose treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: EudraCT: 2012-005275-14 and clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01881308.

Effect Measure Modification by Covariates in Mediation: Extending Regression-based Causal Mediation Analysis.

Existing methods for regression-based mediation analysis assume that the exposure-mediator effect, exposure-outcome effect, and mediator-outcome effect are constant across levels of the baseline characteristics of patients. However, investigators often have insight into how these underlying effects may be modified by baseline characteristics and are interested in how the resulting mediation effects, such as the natural direct effect (NDE), the natural indirect effect. (NIE), and the proportion mediated, are modified by these baseline characteristics. Motivated by an empirical example of anti-interleukin-1 therapy's benefit on incident anemia reduction and its mediation by an early change in an inflammatory biomarker, we extended the closed-form regression-based causal mediation analysis with effect measure modification (EMM). Using a simulated numerical example, we demonstrated that naive analysis without considering EMM can give biased estimates of NDE and NIE and visually illustrated how baseline characteristics affect the presence and magnitude of EMM of NDE and NIE. We then applied the extended method to the empirical example informed by pathophysiologic insights into potential EMM by age, diabetes, and baseline inflammation. We found that the proportion modified through the early post-treatment inflammatory biomarker was greater for younger, nondiabetic patients with lower baseline level of inflammation, suggesting differential usefulness of the early post-treatment inflammatory biomarker in monitoring patients depending on baseline characteristics. To facilitate the adoption of EMM considerations in causal mediation analysis by the wider clinical and epidemiologic research communities, we developed a free- and open-source R package, regmedint.

Comparative Safety of Gout Treatment Strategies on Cardiovascular Outcomes Using Observational Data: Clone-censor-weight Target Trial Emulation Approach.

BACKGROUND: We sought to examine the cardiovascular safety of intensive treat-to-target serum urate strategies for gout using Medicare claims data linked to electronic health record laboratory data. METHODS: We selected patients with gout who initiated urate-lowering therapy. We emulated a hypothetical trial comparing the rate of major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and cardiovascular death) among seven different strategies over 24 months. Three aspects were considered in defining increasingly intensive strategies: (1) continuation of urate-lowering therapy, (2) serum urate monitoring, and (3) modification of urate-lowering therapy when serum urate >6 mg/dl. We applied the "clone-censor-weight" method to account for baseline and time-varying confounding. RESULTS: We identified 4402 patients with gout who initiated urate-lowering therapy (mean age 77; male 60%). During a total of 6611 person-years (PY) of follow-up under usual care, the rate of major cardiovascular events (first and recurrent) was 4.5/100 PY (95% CI = 4.0, 5.1). The rate ratios (RRs) suggested reductions (RR point estimates 0.88-0.84) compared with usual care. All 95% CIs were imprecise, but their upper bounds excluded substantial increase in RRs. RRs were closer to 1.0 for the analysis focusing on the first major adverse cardiovascular event during follow-up and on comparison to the strategy requiring continuation of urate-lowering therapy (but not necessarily titration). CONCLUSIONS: Our treatment strategy trial emulation did not find increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events with intensive urate-lowering strategies. Results may provide reassurance of the cardiovascular safety of intensive treat-to-target serum urate strategies recommended by rheumatology societies.

Examining the potential direct cardiovascular benefit of tumor-necrosis factor inhibitor in rheumatoid arthritis: Natural and controlled direct effect analyses.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) may have a direct benefit on cardiovascular (CV) disease beyond reducing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity measured by the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI). METHODS: We compared TNFi initiators and methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy initiators from the CorEvitas RA registry. Two approaches to the "direct effect" of TNFi beyond CDAI were used. In the natural direct effect (NDE) analysis, the potential CV benefit of TNFi was partitioned into NDE and the natural indirect effect (NIE) mediated by CDAI during the first 6 months. We also estimated the controlled direct effects (CDE), corresponding to the direct benefit of TNFi when CDAI trajectories were hypothetically equalized between the initiators of TNFi and MTX monotherapy at a constant value. Estimates were given on the hazard ratio scale. RESULTS: We identified 5764 initiators of TNFi and 3588 initiators of MTX monotherapy. TNFi initiators were younger (58 vs. 64 years) with a shorter disease duration. Our total effect estimates (TNFi vs. MTX [reference]) were protective in direction (0.76-0.91). The NDE estimate was 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59, 0.98], whereas the NIE estimate was 1.00 [95%CI 1.00, 1.00]. In the CDE analyses accounting for longitudinal CDAI, the CDE estimates was 1.27 [95%CI 0.60, 2.69]. CONCLUSIONS: We could not convincingly demonstrate a direct benefit of TNFi outside its impact on CDAI. At present, the emphasis should be on the stringent control of RA disease activity, a known important CV risk factor, regardless of medication choice.

Patterns of Involvement of the Hand Joints in Classical Rheumatoid Arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Symmetrical involvement of the hand joints is described as characteristic of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Quantitative data on specific patterns of involvement are lacking. OBJECTIVE: The Brigham Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study was created for observational studies of patients with RA and afforded a unique opportunity to answer these questions. METHODS: Of 1598 subjects in the Brigham Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study cohort, 535 met the following criteria: (1) disease duration of 7 years or greater, (2) seropositive, and (3) hand radiographs available. Patterns in specific hand joints based on physical examination and radiographic findings obtained at entry were identified. The level of symmetry of involvement of the metacarpophalangeal (MCP) and wrist joints was determined, as was the correlation between findings on physical examination and radiographic changes in the hand joints. RESULTS: The prevalence of joint space narrowing and/or erosions in each proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints ranged between 11% and 18%. Joint space narrowing and/or erosions in the MCPs increased radially from the fifth to the second finger. Swelling and tenderness on physical examination of both the PIPs and MCPs also increased radially although the positive predictive value of physical examination as an indicator of joint damage decreased radially. The wrist was the most common joint involved both by physical examination (67%) and radiographically (70%). The right side was more involved radiographically. Analysis of radiographic changes in individual patients revealed that symmetrical findings in the wrists and MCPs occurred in only 67% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The study describes the pattern of involvement of the hand joints in patients with long standing RA. Findings of interest include symmetrical involvement in only 67% of patients and a discordancy between physical findings and radiographic changes most marked in the more radial PIP joints.

Low-Dose Methotrexate for the Prevention of Atherosclerotic Events.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is causally related to atherothrombosis. Treatment with canakinumab, a monoclonal antibody that inhibits inflammation by neutralizing interleukin-1ß, resulted in a lower rate of cardiovascular events than placebo in a previous randomized trial. We sought to determine whether an alternative approach to inflammation inhibition with low-dose methotrexate might provide similar benefit. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of low-dose methotrexate (at a target dose of 15 to 20 mg weekly) or matching placebo in 4786 patients with previous myocardial infarction or multivessel coronary disease who additionally had either type 2 diabetes or the metabolic syndrome. All participants received 1 mg of folate daily. The primary end point at the onset of the trial was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. Near the conclusion of the trial, but before unblinding, hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization was added to the primary end point. RESULTS: The trial was stopped after a median follow-up of 2.3 years. Methotrexate did not result in lower interleukin-1ß, interleukin-6, or C-reactive protein levels than placebo. The final primary end point occurred in 201 patients in the methotrexate group and in 207 in the placebo group (incidence rate, 4.13 vs. 4.31 per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79 to 1.16). The original primary end point occurred in 170 patients in the methotrexate group and in 167 in the placebo group (incidence rate, 3.46 vs. 3.43 per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.25). Methotrexate was associated with elevations in liver-enzyme levels, reductions in leukocyte counts and hematocrit levels, and a higher incidence of non-basal-cell skin cancers than placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable atherosclerosis, low-dose methotrexate did not reduce levels of interleukin-1ß, interleukin-6, or C-reactive protein and did not result in fewer cardiovascular events than placebo. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; CIRT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01594333.).

Risk of cardiovascular events in patients having had acute calcium pyrophosphate crystal arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Calcium pyrophosphate deposition (CPPD) disease, broadly defined, has been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. We investigated risk of CV events in patients with acute CPP crystal arthritis, the acute manifestation of CPPD. METHODS: Cohort study using Mass General Brigham electronic health record (EHR) data, 1991-2017. Patients with acute CPP crystal arthritis were identified using a published machine learning algorithm with positive predictive value 81%. Comparators were matched on year of EHR entry and index date of patients with acute CPP crystal arthritis (first positive synovial fluid CPP result or mention of 'pseudogout', or matched encounter). Major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) was a composite of non-fatal CV event (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, stroke) and death. We estimated incidence rates (IRs) and adjusted hazard ratios for MACE, non-fatal CV event and death, allowing for differential estimates during years 0-2 and 2-10. Sensitivity analyses included: (1) patients with acute CPP crystal arthritis diagnosed during outpatient visits, (2) patients with linked Medicare data, 2007-2016 and (3)patients matched on number of CV risk factors. RESULTS: We matched 1200 acute CPP crystal arthritis patients to 3810 comparators. IR for MACE in years 0-2 was 91/1000 person-years (p-y) in acute CPP crystal arthritis and 59/1000 p-y in comparators. In years 2-10, IR for MACE was 58/1000 p-y in acute CPP crystal arthritis and 53/1000 p-y in comparators. Acute CPP crystal arthritis was significantly associated with increased risk for MACE in years 0-2 (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.73) and non-fatal CV event in years 0-2 (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.12 to 3.28) and years 2-10 (HR 2.18, 95% CI 1.27 to 3.75), but not death. Results of sensitivity analyses were similar to the primary analysis; in the outpatient-only analysis, risk of non-fatal CVE was significantly elevated in years 2-10 but not in years 0-2. CONCLUSIONS: Acute CPP crystal arthritis was significantly associated with elevated short and long-term risk for non-fatal CV event.