Timescales for pluton growth, magma-chamber formation and super-eruptions.

Generation of silicic magmas leads to emplacement of granite plutons, huge explosive volcanic eruptions and physical and chemical zoning of continental and arc crust1-7. Whereas timescales for silicic magma generation in the deep and middle crust are prolonged8, magma transfer into the upper crust followed by eruption is episodic and can be rapid9-12. Ages of inherited zircons and sanidines from four Miocene ignimbrites in the Central Andes indicate a gap of 4.6 Myr between initiation of pluton emplacement and onset of super-eruptions, with a 1-Myr cyclicity. We show that inherited zircons and sanidine crystals were stored at temperatures <470 °C in these plutons before incorporation in ignimbrite magmas. Our observations can be explained by silicic melt segregation in a middle-crustal hot zone with episodic melt ascent from an unstable layer at the top of the zone with a timescale governed by the rheology of the upper crust. After thermal incubation of growing plutons, large upper-crustal magma chambers can form in a few thousand years or less by dike transport from the hot-zone melt layer. Instability and disruption of earlier plutonic rock occurred in a few decades or less just before or during super-eruptions.

Chemical differentiation, cold storage and remobilization of magma in the Earth's crust.

The formation, storage and chemical differentiation of magma in the Earth's crust is of fundamental importance in igneous geology and volcanology. Recent data are challenging the high-melt-fraction 'magma chamber' paradigm that has underpinned models of crustal magmatism for over a century, suggesting instead that magma is normally stored in low-melt-fraction 'mush reservoirs'1-9. A mush reservoir comprises a porous and permeable framework of closely packed crystals with melt present in the pore space1,10. However, many common features of crustal magmatism have not yet been explained by either the 'chamber' or 'mush reservoir' concepts1,11. Here we show that reactive melt flow is a critical, but hitherto neglected, process in crustal mush reservoirs, caused by buoyant melt percolating upwards through, and reacting with, the crystals10. Reactive melt flow in mush reservoirs produces the low-crystallinity, chemically differentiated (silicic) magmas that ascend to form shallower intrusions or erupt to the surface11-13. These magmas can host much older crystals, stored at low and even sub-solidus temperatures, consistent with crystal chemistry data6-9. Changes in local bulk composition caused by reactive melt flow, rather than large increases in temperature, produce the rapid increase in melt fraction that remobilizes these cool- or cold-stored crystals. Reactive flow can also produce bimodality in magma compositions sourced from mid- to lower-crustal reservoirs14,15. Trace-element profiles generated by reactive flow are similar to those observed in a well studied reservoir now exposed at the surface16. We propose that magma storage and differentiation primarily occurs by reactive melt flow in long-lived mush reservoirs, rather than by the commonly invoked process of fractional crystallization in magma chambers14.

Formation and dynamics of magma reservoirs.

The emerging concept of a magma reservoir is one in which regions containing melt extend from the source of magma generation to the surface. The reservoir may contain regions of very low fraction intergranular melt, partially molten rock (mush) and melt lenses (or magma chambers) containing high melt fraction eruptible magma, as well as pockets of exsolved magmatic fluids. The various parts of the system may be separated by a sub-solidus rock or be connected and continuous. Magma reservoirs and their wall rocks span a vast array of rheological properties, covering as much as 25 orders of magnitude from high viscosity, sub-solidus crustal rocks to magmatic fluids. Time scales of processes within magma reservoirs range from very slow melt and fluid segregation within mush and magma chambers and deformation of surrounding host rocks to very rapid development of magma and fluid instability, transport and eruption. Developing a comprehensive model of these systems is a grand challenge that will require close collaboration between modellers, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, volcanologists and petrologists. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Magma reservoir architecture and dynamics'.

Hydrothermal alteration of kimberlite by convective flows of external water.

Kimberlite volcanism involves the emplacement of olivine-rich volcaniclastic deposits into volcanic vents or pipes. Kimberlite deposits are typically pervasively serpentinised as a result of the reaction of olivine and water within a temperature range of 130-400 °C or less. We present a model for the influx of ground water into hot kimberlite deposits coupled with progressive cooling and serpentisation. Large-pressure gradients cause influx and heating of water within the pipe with horizontal convergent flow in the host rock and along pipe margins, and upward flow within the pipe centre. Complete serpentisation is predicted for wide ranges of permeability of the host rocks and kimberlite deposits. For typical pipe dimensions, cooling times are centuries to a few millennia. Excess volume of serpentine results in filling of pore spaces, eventually inhibiting fluid flow. Fresh olivine is preserved in lithofacies with initial low porosity, and at the base of the pipe where deeper-level host rocks have low permeability, and the pipe is narrower leading to faster cooling. These predictions are consistent with fresh olivine and serpentine distribution in the Diavik A418 kimberlite pipe, (NWT, Canada) and with features of kimberlites of the Yakutian province in Russia affected by influx of ground water brines. Fast reactions and increases in the volume of solid products compared to the reactants result in self-sealing and low water-rock ratios (estimated at <0.2). Such low water-rock ratios result in only small changes in stable isotope compositions; for example, δO18 is predicted only to change slightly from mantle values. The model supports alteration of kimberlites predominantly by interactions with external non-magmatic fluids.

Kimberlite ascent and eruption.

Wilson and Head model kimberlite ascent and eruption by considering the propagation of a volatile-rich dyke. Wilson and Head's model has features in common with Sparks et al., but it is inconsistent with geological observations and constraints on volatile solubility. Here we show that this may be due to erroneous physical assumptions.

Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has impacted children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to periods of absence and classroom closures. We developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a school classroom that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties. Our approach is based on a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies in suppressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence are considered. COVID-19 infections in primary schools in England in autumn 2020 were re-examined and the model was then used to estimate infection levels in autumn 2021, as the Delta variant was emerging and it was thought likely that school transmission would play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance is more effective than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission and avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of absences, with only modest impact on classroom infections. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major benefit for managing COVID-19 in school settings.

Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent.

A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9-22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.

Pupils returning to primary schools in England during 2020: rapid estimations of punctual COVID-19 infection rates.

Drawing on risk methods from volcano crises, we developed a rapid COVID-19 infection model for the partial return of pupils to primary schools in England in June and July 2020, and a full return in September 2020. The model handles uncertainties in key parameters, using a stochastic re-sampling technique, allowing us to evaluate infection levels as a function of COVID-19 prevalence and projected pupil and staff headcounts. Assuming average national adult prevalence, for the first scenario (as at 1 June 2020) we found that between 178 and 924 [90% CI] schools would have at least one infected individual, out of 16 769 primary schools in total. For the second return (July), our estimate ranged between 336 (2%) and 1873 (11%) infected schools. For a full return in September 2020, our projected range was 661 (4%) to 3310 (20%) infected schools, assuming the same prevalence as for 5 June. If national prevalence fell to one-quarter of that, the projected September range would decrease to between 381 (2%) and 900 (5%) schools but would increase to between 2131 (13%) and 9743 (58%) schools if prevalence increased to 4× June level. When regional variations in prevalence and school size distribution were included in the model, a slight decrease in the projected number of infected schools was indicated, but uncertainty on estimates increased markedly. The latter model variant indicated that 82% of infected schools would be in areas where prevalence exceeded the national average and the probability of multiple infected persons in a school would be higher in such areas. Post hoc, our model projections for 1 September 2020 were seen to have been realistic and reasonable (in terms of related uncertainties) when data on schools' infections were released by official agencies following the start of the 2020/2021 academic year.

A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgement.

Personal contacts drive COVID-19 infections. After being closed (23 March 2020) UK primary schools partially re-opened on 1 June 2020 with social distancing and new risk mitigation strategies. We conducted a structured expert elicitation of teachers to quantify primary school contact patterns and how contact rates changed upon re-opening with risk mitigation measures in place. These rates, with uncertainties, were determined using a performance-based algorithm. We report mean number of contacts per day for four cohorts within schools, with associated 90% confidence ranges. Prior to lockdown, younger children (Reception and Year 1) made 15 contacts per day [range 8.35] within school, older children (Year 6) 18 contacts [range 5.55], teaching staff 25 contacts [range 4.55] and non-classroom staff 11 contacts [range 2.27]. After re-opening, the mean number of contacts was reduced by 53% for young children, 62% for older children, 60% for classroom staff and 64% for other staff. Contacts between teaching and non-teaching staff reduced by 80%. The distributions of contacts per person are asymmetric with heavy tail reflecting a few individuals with high contact numbers. Questions on risk mitigation and supplementary structured interviews elucidated how new measures reduced daily contacts in-school and contribute to infection risk reduction.

Increased rates of large-magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan in the late Neogene and Quaternary.

Tephra layers in marine sediment cores from scientific ocean drilling largely record high-magnitude silicic explosive eruptions in the Japan arc for up to the last 20 million years. Analysis of the thickness variation with distance of 180 tephra layers from a global data set suggests that the majority of the visible tephra layers used in this study are the products of caldera-forming eruptions with magnitude (M) > 6, considering their distances at the respective drilling sites to their likely volcanic sources. Frequency of visible tephra layers in cores indicates a marked increase in rates of large magnitude explosive eruptions at ∼8 Ma, 6-4 Ma, and further increase after ∼2 Ma. These changes are attributed to major changes in tectonic plate interactions. Lower rates of large magnitude explosive volcanism in the Miocene are related to a strike-slip-dominated boundary (and temporary cessation or deceleration of subduction) between the Philippine Sea Plate and southwest Japan, combined with the possibility that much of the arc in northern Japan was submerged beneath sea level partly due to previous tectonic extension of northern Honshu related to formation of the Sea of Japan. Changes in plate motions and subduction dynamics during the ∼8 Ma to present period led to (1) increased arc-normal subduction in southwest Japan (and resumption of arc volcanism) and (2) shift from extension to compression of the upper plate in northeast Japan, leading to uplift, crustal thickening and favorable conditions for accumulation of the large volumes of silicic magma needed for explosive caldera-forming eruptions.

An objective method for the production of isopach maps and implications for the estimation of tephra deposit volumes and their uncertainties.

Characterization of explosive volcanic eruptive processes from interpretation of deposits is a key for assessing volcanic hazard and risk, particularly for infrequent large explosive eruptions and those whose deposits are transient in the geological record. While eruption size-determined by measurement and interpretation of tephra fall deposits-is of particular importance, uncertainties for such measurements and volume estimates are rarely presented. Here, tephra volume estimates are derived from isopach maps produced by modeling raw thickness data as cubic B-spline curves under tension. Isopachs are objectively determined in relation to original data and enable limitations in volume estimates from published maps to be investigated. The eruption volumes derived using spline isopachs differ from selected published estimates by 15-40 %, reflecting uncertainties in the volume estimation process. The formalized analysis enables identification of sources of uncertainty; eruptive volume uncertainties (>30 %) are much greater than thickness measurement uncertainties (~10 %). The number of measurements is a key factor in volume estimate uncertainty, regardless of method utilized for isopach production. Deposits processed using the cubic B-spline method are well described by 60 measurements distributed across each deposit; however, this figure is deposit and distribution dependent, increasing for geometrically complex deposits, such as those exhibiting bilobate dispersion.

Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery.

A key challenge for volcanological science and hazard management is that few of the world's volcanoes are effectively monitored. Satellite imagery covers volcanoes globally throughout their eruptive cycles, independent of ground-based monitoring, providing a multidecadal archive suitable for probabilistic analysis linking deformation with eruption. Here we show that, of the 198 volcanoes systematically observed for the past 18 years, 54 deformed, of which 25 also erupted. For assessing eruption potential, this high proportion of deforming volcanoes that also erupted (46%), together with the proportion of non-deforming volcanoes that did not erupt (94%), jointly represent indicators with 'strong' evidential worth. Using a larger catalogue of 540 volcanoes observed for 3 years, we demonstrate how this eruption-deformation relationship is influenced by tectonic, petrological and volcanic factors. Satellite technology is rapidly evolving and routine monitoring of the deformation status of all volcanoes from space is anticipated, meaning probabilistic approaches will increasingly inform hazard decisions and strategic development.