Validation of randomized controlled trial-derived models for the prediction of postintervention outcomes in chronic limb-threatening ischemia.

BACKGROUND: Chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) represents the most severe form of peripheral artery disease and has a large impact on quality of life, morbidity, and mortality. Interventions are aimed at improving tissue perfusion and averting amputation and secondary cardiovascular complications with an optimal risk-benefit ratio. Several prediction models regarding postprocedural outcomes in CLTI patients have been developed on the basis of randomized controlled trials to improve clinical decision-making. We aimed to determine model performance in predicting clinical outcomes in selected CLTI cohorts. METHODS: This study validated the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular registry (FINNVASC), and Prevention of Infrainguinal Vein Graft Failure (PREVENT III) models in data sets from a peripheral artery disease registry study (Athero-Express) and two randomized controlled trials of CLTI in The Netherlands, Rejuvenating Endothelial Progenitor Cells via Transcutaneous Intra-arterial Supplementation (JUVENTAS) and Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty and Drug-eluting Stents for Infrapopliteal Lesions in Critical Limb Ischemia (PADI). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to calculate their predictive capacity. The primary outcome was amputation-free survival (AFS); secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and amputation at 12 months after intervention. RESULTS: The BASIL and PREVENT III models showed predictive values regarding postintervention mortality in the JUVENTAS cohort with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 81% and 70%, respectively. Prediction of AFS was poor to fair (AUC, 0.60-0.71) for all models in each population, with the highest predictive value of 71% for the BASIL model in the JUVENTAS population. The FINNVASC model showed the highest predictive value regarding amputation risk in the PADI population with AUC of 78% at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: In general, all models performed poor to fair in predicting mortality and amputation. Because the BASIL model performed best in predicting AFS, we propose use of the BASIL model to aid in the clinical decision-making process in CLTI. However, improvements in performance have to be made for any of these models to be of real additional value in clinical practice.

High and immeasurable ankle-brachial index as predictor of poor amputation-free survival in critical limb ischemia.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the prognostic value of a high or immeasurable ankle-brachial index (ABI) at baseline for major amputation and amputation-free survival (AFS) in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI). METHODS: Data from two recent trials in patients with CLI and proven infrapopliteal arterial obstructive disease were pooled. Patients were allocated to the low (<0.7), intermediate (0.7-1.4), or high (>1.4)/immeasurable ABI subgroup. Major amputation and AFS rates were compared. Hazard ratios for major amputation and death were calculated. The net reclassification improvement of incorporating high/immeasurable ABI in the Project of Ex-Vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III) prediction model was derived. RESULTS: There were 146 patients (56.2%) who had a low ABI, 81 patients (31.2%) who had an intermediate ABI, and 33 patients (12.7%) who had a high/immeasurable ABI at baseline. Patients with high/immeasurable ABI showed higher 5-year major amputation (52.1%) and lower 5-year AFS (5.0%) rates than the intermediate (25.5% and 41.6%, respectively) and low ABI patients (23.5% and 46.9%, respectively; both P < .001). This same trend was observed in subgroup analysis of diabetics and nondiabetics. Adjusted hazard ratio of high/immeasurable ABI for major amputation/death risk was 2.93 (P < .001). Adding a high/immeasurable ABI as model factor to the PREVENT III model yielded a net reclassification index of 0.38 (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: A high/immeasurable ABI in patients with CLI and infrapopliteal arterial obstructive disease is an independent risk factor of major amputation and of poor AFS, in both diabetics and nondiabetics. Incorporating high/immeasurable ABI in the PREVENT III prediction model improves its performance.

Arterial calcification and long-term outcome in chronic limb-threatening ischemia patients.

PURPOSE: Within five years after presentation 50-60% of patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLI) have died or had an amputation. We assessed the predictive value of lower extremity arterial calcification on computed tomography (CT) characteristics on both 7-years amputation-free survival and 10-years all-cause mortality in patients with CLI. METHOD: Included were 89 CLI patients (mean age 73.1 ±â€¯11.6 years) who underwent a CT angiography of the lower extremities. In the femoropopliteal and crural arteries based on a CT score the following calcification characteristics were assessed: severity, annularity, thickness and continuity. The predictive value of different arterial calcification characteristics was analysed by age- and sex-adjusted multivariate Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Complete annular calcifications were common (femoropopliteal 43.7%, n = 38; crural, 63.2%, n = 55). Mean survival was 278.4 weeks (95% CI 238.77-318.0 weeks). Patients with complete annular calcifications had a higher all-cause 10-year mortality (femoropopliteal unadjusted HR 1.64, p = 0.04 and adjusted for age and sex HR 1.68, p = 0.04; crural unadjusted HR 1.92, p = 0.02, adjusted for age and sex HR 2.29, p = 0.006) than patients with other calcification characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Annularity of calcification of both femoropopliteal and crural arteries is a predictor for 10-year all-cause survival, its hazard being even higher than the traditional prognostic risk factors for CLI and therefore could be involved in the poor survival of these patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of Drug-Eluting Stents for Infrapopliteal Lesions in Patients with Critical Limb Ischemia: The PADI Trial.

PURPOSE: Drug-eluting stents (DES) improve clinical and morphological long-term results compared to percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) with bailout bare metal stenting (BMS) in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) and infrapopliteal lesions (PADI trial). We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of DES compared to PTA ± BMS in cooperation with Dutch health insurance company VGZ, using data from the PADI trial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the PADI trial, adults with CLI (Rutherford category ≥ 4) and infrapopliteal lesions were randomized to receive DES with paclitaxel or PTA ± BMS. Seventy-four limbs (73 patients) were treated with DES and 66 limbs (64 patients) with PTA ± BMS. The costs were calculated by using the mean costs per stent multiplied by the mean number of stents used per patient (€750 × 1.8 for DES vs €250 × 0.3 for PTA ± BMS). These costs were compared with the costs of major amputation (€16.000) and rehabilitation (first year €15.750, second year €7.375 and third year €3.600). RESULTS: The 5-year major amputation rate was lower in the DES group (19.3% vs 34.0% for PTA ± BMS; p = 0.091). In addition, the 5-year amputation-free survival and event-free survival were significantly higher in the DES group (31.8% vs 20.4%, p=0.043; and 26.2% vs 15.3%, p=0.041, respectively). After 1 year, the cost difference per patient between DES and PTA ± BMS is €1.679 in favor of DES and €2.694 after 3 years. CONCLUSION: In our analysis, DES are cost-effective due to the higher hospital costs of amputation and rehabilitation in the PTA ± BMS group. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 1b, analysis based on clinically sensible costs and randomized controlled trial.

10-Year Paclitaxel Dose-Related Outcomes of Drug-Eluting Stents Treated Below the Knee in Patients with Chronic Limb-Threatening Ischemia (The PADI Trial).

PURPOSE: Recently, two meta-analyses concluded that there appears to be an increased risk of long-term mortality of paclitaxel-coated balloons and stents in the superficial femoral and popliteal artery, and paclitaxel-coated balloons below the knee. In this post hoc study of the PADI Trial, we investigated the long-term safety of first-generation paclitaxel-coated drug-eluting stents (DES) below the knee and the dose-mortality relationships of paclitaxel in patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The PADI Trial compared paclitaxel-coated DES with percutaneous transluminal angioplasty with bail-out bare-metal stents (PTA ± BMS) in patients with CLI treated below the knee. Follow-up was extended to 10 years after the first inclusion, and survival analyses were performed. In addition, dose-related mortality and dose per patient weight-related mortality relations were examined. RESULTS: A total of 140 limbs in 137 patients were included in the PADI Trial. Ten years after the first inclusion, 109/137 (79.6%) patients had died. There was no significant difference between mortality in the DES group compared with the PTA ± BMS group (Log-rank p value = 0.12). No specific dose-related mortality (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.00, p = 0.99) or dose per weight mortality (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.93-1.18, p = 0.46) relationships were identified in the Cox-proportional Hazard models or by Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. CONCLUSIONS: There is a poor 10-year survival in both paclitaxel-coated DES and PTA ± BMS in patients with CLI treated below the knee. No dose-related adverse effects of paclitaxel-coated DES were observed in our study of patients with CLI treated below the knee. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: The PADI Trial: level 1, randomized clinical trial.

Long-Term Follow-up of the PADI Trial: Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty Versus Drug-Eluting Stents for Infrapopliteal Lesions in Critical Limb Ischemia.

BACKGROUND: Clinical outcomes reported after treatment of infrapopliteal lesions with drug-eluting stents (DESs) have been more favorable compared with percutaneous transluminal angioplasty with a bailout bare metal stent (PTA-BMS) through midterm follow-up in patients with critical limb ischemia. In the present study, long-term results of treatment of infrapopliteal lesions with DESs are presented. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults with critical limb ischemia (Rutherford category ≥4) and infrapopliteal lesions were randomized to receive PTA-BMS or DESs with paclitaxel. Long-term follow-up consisted of annual assessments up to 5 years after treatment or until a clinical end point was reached. Clinical end points were major amputation (above ankle level), infrapopliteal surgical or endovascular reintervention, and death. Preserved primary patency (≤50% restenosis) of treated lesions was an additional morphological end point, assessed by duplex sonography. In total, 74 limbs (73 patients) were treated with DESs and 66 limbs (64 patients) were treated with PTA-BMS. The estimated 5-year major amputation rate was lower in the DES arm (19.3% versus 34.0% for PTA-BMS; P=0.091). The 5-year rates of amputation- and event-free survival (survival free from major amputation or reintervention) were significantly higher in the DES arm compared with PTA-BMS (31.8% versus 20.4%, P=0.043; and 26.2% versus 15.3%, P=0.041, respectively). Survival rates were comparable. The limited available morphological results showed higher preserved patency rates after DESs than after PTA-BMS at 1, 3, and 4 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Both clinical and morphological long-term results after treatment of infrapopliteal lesions in patients with critical limb ischemia are improved with DES compared with PTA-BMS. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00471289.

Diabetes Is Associated With Decreased Limb Survival in Patients With Critical Limb Ischemia: Pooled Data From Two Randomized Controlled Trials.

OBJECTIVE: Although never assessed prospectively, diabetes mellitus (DM) is assumed to negatively affect the outcomes of critical limb ischemia (CLI). DM was highly prevalent in two recently conducted randomized controlled trials in CLI patients, the PADI (Percutaneous Transluminal Balloon Angioplasty [PTA] and Drug Eluting Stents for Infrapopliteal Lesions in Critical Limb Ischemia) and JUVENTAS (Rejuvenating Endothelial Progenitor Cells via Transcutaneous Intra-Arterial Supplementation) trials. To determine the implications of DM in a population of patients with infrapopliteal CLI, clinical outcomes were compared in patients with and without DM. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Individual data from patients with CLI (Rutherford category ≥4) were pooled. Patients were considered to have DM when this diagnosis was reported in the hospital electronic medical records. Rates of major amputation (above ankle level) and major events (major amputation or death) were compared between CLI patients with and without DM. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated. RESULTS: Of a total of 281 patients, DM was present in 49.1%. The major amputation rate at 5 years of follow-up was higher in patients with DM than in patients without DM (34.1% vs. 20.4%, P = 0.015). The major event and death rate did not differ. The unadjusted HR of DM for the major amputation risk was 1.87 (95% CI 1.12-3.12). Model factors with significant HRs in the multivariate analysis were baseline Rutherford category (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.24-3.06) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) >1.4 (HR 2.78; 95% CI 1.37-5.64). CONCLUSIONS: CLI patients with DM are at a significantly higher risk of major amputation than CLI patients without DM. This increased risk is associated with a higher prevalence of baseline ABI >1.4 and more severe ischemia at initial presentation in patients with DM.

Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty and Drug-Eluting Stents for Infrapopliteal Lesions in Critical Limb Ischemia (PADI) Trial.

BACKGROUND: Endovascular infrapopliteal treatment of patients with critical limb ischemia using percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) and bail-out bare metal stenting (BMS) is hampered by restenosis. In interventional cardiology, drug-eluting stents (DES) have shown better patency rates and are standard practice nowadays. An investigator-initiated, multicenter, randomized trial was conducted to assess whether DES also improve patency and clinical outcome of infrapopliteal lesions. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults with critical limb ischemia (Rutherford category ≥4) and infrapopliteal lesions were randomized to receive PTA±BMS or DES with paclitaxel. Primary end point was 6-month primary binary patency of treated lesions, defined as ≤50% stenosis on computed tomographic angiography. Stenosis >50%, retreatment, major amputation, and critical limb ischemia-related death were regarded as treatment failure. Severity of failure was assessed with an ordinal score, ranging from vessel stenosis through occlusion to the clinical failures. Seventy-four limbs (73 patients) were treated with DES and 66 limbs (64 patients) received PTA±BMS. Six-month patency rates were 48.0% for DES and 35.1% for PTA±BMS (P=0.096) in the modified-intention-to-treat and 51.9% and 35.1% (P=0.037) in the per-protocol analysis. The ordinal score showed significantly worse treatment failure for PTA±BMS versus DES (P=0.041). The observed major amputation rate remained lower in the DES group until 2 years post-treatment, with a trend toward significance (P=0.066). Less minor amputations occurred after DES until 6 months post-treatment (P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with critical limb ischemia caused by infrapopliteal lesions, DES provide better 6-month patency rates and less amputations after 6 and 12 months compared with PTA±BMS. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00471289.