Risk factors for incident cardiovascular events and their population attributable fractions in rural India: The Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: We prospectively determined incident cardiovascular events and their association with risk factors in rural India. METHODS: We followed up with 7935 adults from the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study to identify incident cardiovascular events. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between potential risk factors and cardiovascular events. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for risk factors were estimated using R ('averisk' package). RESULTS: Of the 4809 participants without prior cardiovascular disease, 57.7% were women and baseline mean age was 45.3 years. At follow-up (median of 4.9 years, 23,180 person-years [PYs]), 202 participants developed cardiovascular events, equating to an incidence of 8.7 cardiovascular events/1000 PYs. Incidence was greater in those with hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.73 [1.21-2.49], adjusted PAF 18%), diabetes (1.96 [1.15-3.36], 4%) or central obesity (1.77 [1.23, 2.54], 9%) which together accounted for 31% of the PAF. Non-traditional risk factors such as night sleeping hours and number of children accounted for 16% of the PAF. CONCLUSIONS: Both traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors are important contributors to incident cardiovascular events in rural India. Interventions targeted to these factors could assist in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular events.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Government Policy to Incentivise Chronic Disease Management following Stroke: A Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of government policies that support primary care physicians to provide comprehensive chronic disease management (CDM). This paper aimed to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of CDM policies over a lifetime for long-time survivors of stroke. METHODS: A Markov model, using three health states (stable, hospitalised, dead), was developed to simulate the costs and benefits of CDM policies over 30 years (with 1-year cycles). Transition probabilities and costs from a health system perspective were obtained from the linkage of data between the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (cohort n = 12,368, 42% female, median age 70 years, 45% had CDM claims) and government-held hospital, Medicare, and pharmaceutical claims datasets. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from a comparable cohort (n = 512, 34% female, median age 69.6 years, 52% had CDM claims) linked with Medicare claims and death data. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs in Australian dollars (AUD, 2016) and QALYs beyond 12 months. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to understand uncertainty. RESULTS: Per-person average total lifetime costs were AUD 142,939 and 8.97 QALYs for those with a claim, and AUD 103,889 and 8.98 QALYs for those without a claim. This indicates that these CDM policies were costlier without improving QALYs. The probability of cost-effectiveness of CDM policies was 26.1%, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY. CONCLUSION: CDM policies, designed to encourage comprehensive care, are unlikely to be cost-effective for stroke compared to care without CDM. Further research to understand how to deliver such care cost-effectively is needed.

Cost-Effectiveness of an Individualised Management Program after Stroke: A Trial-Based Economic Evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of comprehensive post-stroke programs is limited. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of an individualised management program (IMP) for stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). METHODS: A cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial with a 24-month follow-up, from both societal and health system perspectives, was conducted. Adults with stroke/TIA discharged from hospitals were randomised by primary care practice to receive either usual care (UC) or an IMP in addition to UC (intervention). An IMP included stroke-specific nurse-led education and a specialist review of care plans at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months, and telephone reviews by nurses at 6 months and 18 months. Costs were expressed in 2021 Australian dollars (AUD). Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) beyond 12 months were discounted by 5%. The probability of cost-effectiveness of the intervention was determined by quantifying 10,000 bootstrapped iterations of incremental costs and QALYs below the threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY. RESULTS: Among the 502 participants (65% male, median age 69 years), 251 (50%) were in the intervention group. From a health system perspective, the incremental cost per QALY gained was AUD 53,175 in the intervention compared to the UC group, and the intervention was cost-effective in 46.7% of iterations. From a societal perspective, the intervention was dominant in 52.7% of iterations, with mean per-person costs of AUD 49,045 and 1.352 QALYs compared to mean per-person costs of AUD 51,394 and 1.324 QALYs in the UC group. The probability of the cost-effectiveness of the intervention, from a societal perspective, was 60.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Care for people with stroke/TIA using an IMP was cost-effective from a societal perspective over 24 months. Economic evaluations of prevention programs need sufficient time horizons and consideration of costs beyond direct healthcare utilisation to demonstrate their value to society.

Interactions between age, sex and visceral adipose tissue on brain ageing.

AIM: To examine the associations between visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and brain structural measures at midlife and explore how these associations may be affected by age, sex and cardiometabolic factors. METHODS: We used abdominal and brain magnetic resonance imaging data from a population-based cohort of people at midlife in the UK Biobank. Regression modelling was applied to study associations of VAT volume with total brain volume (TBV), grey matter volume (GMV), white matter volume, white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) and total hippocampal volume (THV), and whether these associations were altered by age, sex or cardiometabolic factors. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 17 377 participants (mean age 63 years, standard deviation = 12, 53% female). Greater VAT was associated with lower TBV, GMV and THV (P < .001). We found an interaction between VAT and sex on TBV (P < .001), such that the negative association of VAT with TBV was greater in men (ß = -2.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] -2.32 to -10.15) than in women (ß = -1.32, 95% CI -0.49 to -3.14), with similar findings for GMV. We also found an interaction between VAT and age (but not sex) on WMHV (P < .001). The addition of other cardiometabolic factors or measures of physical activity resulted in little change to the models. CONCLUSIONS: VAT volume is associated with poorer brain health in midlife and this relationship is greatest in men and those at younger ages.

Using a multi-stakeholder co-design process to develop a health service organisation-wide patient reported outcome measure collection system.

PURPOSE: Limited examples exist of successful Patient Reported Outcome Measure (PROM) implementation across an entire healthcare organisation. The aim of this study was to use a multi-stakeholder co-design process to develop a PROM collection system, which will inform implementation of routine collection of PROMs across an entire healthcare organisation. METHODS: Co-design comprised semi-structured interviews with clinicians (n = 11) and workshops/surveys with consumers (n = 320). The interview guide with clinicians focused on their experience using PROMs, preferences for using PROMs, and facilitators/barriers to using PROMs. Co-design activities specific to consumers focused on: (1) how PROMs will be administered (mode), (2) when PROMs will be administered (timing), (3) who will assist with PROMs collection, and (4) how long a PROM will take to complete. Data were analysed using a manifest qualitative content analysis approach. RESULTS: Core elements identified during the co-design process included: PROMs collection should be consumer-led and administered by someone other than a clinician; collection at discharge from the healthcare organisation and at 3-6 months post discharge would be most suitable for supporting comprehensive assessment; PROMs should be administered using a variety of modes to accommodate the diversity of consumer preferences, with electronic as the default; and the time taken to complete PROMs should be no longer than 5-10 min. CONCLUSION: This study provides new information on the co-design of a healthcare organisation-wide PROM collection system. Implementing a clinician and patient informed strategy for PROMs collection, that meets their preferences across multiple domains, should address known barriers to routine collection.

Healthcare consumer acceptability of routine use of the EQ-5D-5L in clinical care: a cross-sectional survey.

PURPOSE: Patient reported outcome measures, such as the EQ-5D-5L, provide a measure of self-perceived health status or health-related quality of life. Understanding the consumer acceptability of a patient reported outcome measure can help to decide about its implementation across a healthcare organisation and possibly increase the likelihood of its use in clinical care. This study established the acceptability of the EQ-5D-5L from the perspective of clients receiving healthcare, and determined if acceptability varied by client sub-types. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey explored clients' experience of the EQ-5D-5L. Eligible clients were aged ≥ 18 years and completed the EQ-5D-5L on admission and discharge to one of two multi-disciplinary community health services. Likert scale items explored acceptability, and open-ended questions determined if the EQ-5D-5L reflects experience of illness. Associations between acceptability and client characteristics were established using χ2 test. Open-ended questions were analysed using content analysis. RESULTS: Most of the 304 clients (mean age 70 years, SD 16) agreed that the EQ-5D-5L: was easy to use/understand (n = 301, 99%) and useful (n = 289, 95%); improved communication with their therapist (n = 275, 90%); and made them feel more in control of their health (n = 276, 91%). Most clients also agreed that they wished to continue using the EQ-5D-5L (n = 285, 93%). Clients aged ≥ 60 years reported lower acceptability. Clients noted that the EQ-5D-5L did not capture experience of illness related to fatigue, balance/falls, cognition, and sleep. CONCLUSION: The EQ-5D-5L is acceptable for use in care but does not capture all aspects of health relevant to clients, and acceptability varies by subgroup.

The implementation of a perioperative medicine for older people undergoing surgery service: a qualitative case study.

BACKGROUND: The international scale and spread of evidence-based perioperative medicine for older people undergoing surgery (POPS) services has not yet been fully realised. Implementation science provides a structured approach to understanding factors that act as barriers and facilitators to the implementation of POPS services. In this study, we aimed to identify factors that influence the implementation of POPS services in the UK. METHODS: A qualitative case study at three UK health services was undertaken. The health services differed across contextual factors (population, workforce, size) and stages of POPS service implementation maturity. Semi-structured interviews with purposively sampled clinicians (perioperative medical, nursing, allied health, and pharmacy) and managers (n = 56) were conducted. Data were inductively coded, then thematically analysed using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). RESULTS: Fourteen factors across all five CFIR domains were relevant to the implementation of POPS services. Key shared facilitators included stakeholders understanding the rationale of the POPS service, with support from their networks, POPS champions, and POPS clinical leads. We found substantial variation and flexibility in the way that health services responded to these shared facilitators and this was relevant to the implementation of POPS services. CONCLUSIONS: Health services planning to implement a POPS service should use health service-specific strategies to respond flexibly to local factors that are acting as barriers or facilitators to implementation. To support implementation of a POPS service, we recommend health services prioritise understanding local networks, identifying POPS champions, and ensuring that stakeholders understand the rationale for the POPS service. Our study also provides a structure for future research to understand the factors associated with 'unsuccessful' implementation of a POPS service, which can inform ongoing efforts to implement evidence-based perioperative models of care for older people.

Factors Associated With Transition From Community to Permanent Residential Aged Care Following Stroke: A Linked Registry Data Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding factors that influence the transition to permanent residential aged care following a stroke or transient ischemic attack may inform strategies to support people to live at home longer. We aimed to identify the demographic, clinical, and system factors that may influence the transition from living in the community to permanent residential care in the 6 to 18 months following stroke/transient ischemic attack. METHODS: Linked data cohort analysis of adults from Queensland and Victoria aged ≥65 years and registered in the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (2012-2016) with a clinical diagnosis of stroke/transient ischemic attack and living in the community in the first 6 months post-hospital discharge. Participant data were linked with primary care, pharmaceutical, aged care, death, and hospital data. Multivariable survival analysis was performed to determine demographic, clinical, and system factors associated with the transition to permanent residential care in the 6 to 18 months following stroke, with death modeled as a competing risk. RESULTS: Of 11 176 included registrants (median age, 77.2 years; 44% female), 520 (5%) transitioned to permanent residential care between 6 and 18 months. Factors most associated with transition included the history of urinary tract infections (subhazard ratio [SHR], 1.41 [95% CI, 1.16-1.71]), dementia (SHR, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.14-2.42]), increasing age (65-74 versus 85+ years; SHR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.31-2.34]), living in regional Australia (SHR, 31 [95% CI, 1.08-1.60]), and aged care service approvals: respite (SHR, 4.54 [95% CI, 3.51-5.85]) and high-level home support (SHR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.30-2.48]). Protective factors included being dispensed antihypertensive medications (SHR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.53-0.87]), seeing a cardiologist (SHR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.57-0.91]) following stroke, and less severe stroke (SHR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.58-0.88]). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide an improved understanding of factors that influence the transition from community to permanent residential care following stroke and can inform future strategies designed to delay this transition.

Prospective associations between pain at multiple sites and falls among community-dwelling older Australians.

BACKGROUND: Pain at multiple sites is prevalent among older people. However, studies investigating the relationship between pain and falls focus largely on single-site pain. AIM: To examine the association between pain at multiple sites and falls among community-dwelling older Australians. METHODS: Participants aged >60 years were randomly selected from the electoral roll. Falls were recorded prospectively over 12 months. Pain at multiple sites was assessed using a questionnaire. The total number of painful sites was calculated. Widespread pain was defined as pain in the upper limb, lower limb and in the axial skeletal region, with moderate to severe pain in at least one region. Log multinomial regression, with adjustment for confounders, was used to estimate whether widespread pain or number of painful sites increased the risk of a single (one fall) and multiple falls (≥2 falls). RESULTS: There were 299 participants (43% women; mean age 72 ± 7.0 years). The mean (standard deviation) of falls was 0.8 ± 1.5. The frequencies of single and multiple falls were 23% (n = 68) and 16% (n = 49) respectively. A higher number of painful sites was associated with an elevated risk of a single fall (relative risk (RR) = 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.96-1.27) and multiple falls (RR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02-1.41). However, the risk of multiple, but not single fall was substantial and statistically significant. Furthermore, compared with those without pain, individuals with widespread pain had an elevated risk of single (RR = 1.87; 95% CI: 0.80-5.09) and multiple falls (RR = 3.94; 95% CI: 1.15-13.51). However, the magnitude of effects of single fall was smaller and not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Falls risk should be ascertained for older people with pain, irrespective of whether they present with a single or multiple sites pain. Nevertheless, older adults with multisite pain may require additional attention as they appear to have a significantly elevated risk of multiple falls.

Targeted care navigation to reduce hospital readmissions in 'at-risk' patients.

BACKGROUND: Care navigation is commonly used to reduce preventable hospitalisation. The use of Electronic Health Record-derived algorithms may enable better targeting of this intervention for greater impact. AIMS: To evaluate if community-based Targeted Care Navigation, supported by an Electronic Health Record-derived readmission risk algorithm, is associated with reduced rehospitalisation. METHODS: A propensity score matching cohort (5 comparison to 1 intervention cohort ratio) study was conducted in an 850-bed Victorian public metropolitan health service, Australia, from May to November 2017. Admitted acute care patients with a non-surgical condition, identified as at-risk of hospital readmission using an Electronic Health Record-derived readmission risk algorithm provide by the state health department, were eligible. Targeted Care Navigation involved telephone follow-up support provided for 30 days post-discharge by a registered nurse. The hazard ratio for hospital readmission was calculated at 30, 60 and 90 days post-discharge using multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards regression. RESULTS: Sixty-five recipients received care navigation and were matched to 262 people who did not receive care navigation. Excellent matching was achieved with standardised differences between groups being <0.1 for all 11 variables included in the propensity score, including the readmission risk score. The Targeted Care Navigation group had a significantly reduced hazard of readmission at 30 days (hazard ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval: 0.12, 0.94) compared with the comparison group. The effect size was reduced at 60 and 90 days post-discharge. CONCLUSION: We provide preliminary evidence that Targeted Care Navigation supported by an Electronic Health Record-derived readmission risk algorithm may reduce 30-day hospital readmissions.

A landscape assessment of the use of patient reported outcome measures in research, quality improvement and clinical care across a healthcare organisation.

BACKGROUND: Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) can be used by healthcare organisations to inform improvements in service delivery. However, routine collection of PROMs is difficult to achieve across an entire healthcare organisation. An understanding of the use of PROMs within an organisation can provide valuable insights on the purpose, scope and practical considerations of PROMs collection, which can inform implementation of PROMs. METHODS: We used multiple research methods to assess the use of PROMs in research projects, data registries and clinical care across a healthcare organisation from January 2014 to April 2021. The methods included an audit of ethics applications approved by the organisation's human research ethics committee and registries which the health organisation had contributed data to; a literature review of peer-reviewed journal articles reporting on research projects conducted at the organisation; and a survey of health professionals use of PROMs in research projects, data registries and clinical care. The scope of PROMs was determined by classifying PROMs as either 'specific' to a particular disease and/or condition, or as a 'generic' measure with further classification based on the health domains they measured, using the World Health Organization International Classification Framework. Practical considerations included mode and timing of PROMs administration. Data were described using frequency and proportion. RESULTS: PROMs were used by 22% of research projects (n = 144/666), 68% of data registries (n = 13/19), and 76% of clinical specialties in their clinical care (n = 16/21). Disease specific PROMs were most commonly used: 83% of research projects (n = 130/144), 69% of clinical registries (n = 9/13), and 75% of clinical specialties (n = 12/16). Greater than 80% of research projects, clinical registries and clinical specialties measured health domains relating to both body impairments and participation in daily life activities. The most commonly used generic PROM was the EQ-5D (research projects n = 56/144, 39%; data registries n = 5/13, 38%; clinical specialties n = 4/16, 25%). PROMs used in clinical care were mostly paper-based (n = 47/55, 85%). CONCLUSIONS: We have elicited information on the use of PROMs to inform a health organisation wide implementation strategy. Future work will determine clinician and patient acceptability of the EQ-5D, and co-design a system for the collection of PROMs.

Prospective application of theoretical implementation frameworks to improve health care in hospitals - a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Health Service implementation projects are often guided by theoretical implementation frameworks. Little is known about the effectiveness of these frameworks to facilitate change in processes of care and patient outcomes within the inpatient setting. The aim of this review was to assess the effectiveness of the application of theoretical implementation frameworks in inpatient healthcare settings to change processes of care and associated patient outcomes. METHOD: We conducted a search in CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, EMCARE and Cochrane Library databases from 1st January 1995 to 15th June 2021. Two reviewers independently applied inclusion and exclusion criteria to potentially eligible studies. Eligible studies: implemented evidence-based care into an in-patient setting using a theoretical implementation framework applied prospectively; used a prospective study design; presented process of care or patient outcomes; and were published in English. We extracted theoretical implementation frameworks and study design against the Workgroup for Intervention Development and Evaluation Research (WIDER) Checklist and implementation strategies mapped to the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) taxonomy. We summarised all interventions using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication (TIDieR) checklist. We appraised study quality using the Item bank on risk of bias and precision of observational studies and the revised Cochrane risk of bias tool for cluster randomised trials. We extracted process of care and patient outcomes and described descriptively. We conducted meta-analysis for process of care and patient outcomes with reference to framework category. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-one used a pre-post (no comparison), two a pre-post with a comparison, and two a cluster randomised trial design. Eleven theoretical implementation frameworks were prospectively applied: six process models; five determinant frameworks; and one classic theory. Four studies used two theoretical implementation frameworks. No authors reported their justification for selecting a particular framework and implementation strategies were generally poorly described. No consensus was reached for a preferred framework or subset of frameworks based on meta-analysis results. CONCLUSIONS: Rather than the ongoing development of new implementation frameworks, a more consistent approach to framework selection and strengthening of existing approaches is recommended to further develop the implementation evidence base. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRD42019119429.

The Role of Daily Step Count in Determining Risk Factors for Falls.

Falls risk is often assessed without considering exposure to risk. We examined the risk factors associated with falls in those with greater and lower levels of daily step count. Falls were recorded over 12 months using bimonthly calendars in community-dwelling older people (mean age 72.0, SD 6.9). Daily step count was measured using a pedometer worn consecutively for 7 days. A cut score of <5,575.5 steps/day was used to identify people with lower step count. Negative binominal models were used to identify cognitive, medical, and sensorimotor factors associated with falls in those with higher versus lower levels of daily step count. In those with lower daily step count, poorer executive function, slower gait speed, and lower steps per day were associated with increased falls risk. In those with higher step count, only mood was associated with increased falls risk. Considering daily step count is important when assessing falls risk in older people.

Topographic Evolution of Anterior Cerebral Artery Infarction and Its Impact on Motor Impairment.

INTRODUCTION: Motor deficit is common following anterior cerebral artery (ACA) stroke. This study aimed to determine the impact on the motor outcome, given the location of descending corticofugal fiber tracts (from the primary motor cortex [M1], dorsal and ventral premotor area [PMdv], and supplementary motor area [SMA]) and the regional variations in collateral support of the ACA territory. METHODS: Patients with ACA vessel occlusion were included. Disruption to corticofugal fibers was inferred by overlap of tracts with a lesion on computed tomography perfusion at the onset and on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) poststroke. The motor outcome was defined by dichotomized and combined National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) sub-scores for the arm and leg. Multivariate hierarchical partitioning was used to analyze the proportional contribution of the corticofugal fibers to the motor outcome. RESULTS: Forty-seven patients with a median age of 77.5 (interquartile range 68.0-84.5) years were studied. At the stroke onset, 96% of patients showed evidence of motor deficit on the NIHSS, and the proportional contribution of the corticofugal fibers to motor deficit was M1-33%, SMA-33%, and PMdv-33%. By day 7, motor deficit was present in <50% of patients and contribution of M1 fiber tracts to the motor deficit was reduced (M1-10.2%, SMA-61.0%, PMdv-28.8%). We confirmed our findings using publicly available high-resolution templates created from Human Connectome Project data. This also showed a reduction in involvement of M1 fiber tracts on initial perfusion imaging (33%) compared to MRI at a median time of 7 days poststroke (11%). CONCLUSION: Improvements in the motor outcome seen in ACA stroke may be due to the relative sparing of M1 fiber tracts from infarction. This may occur as a consequence of the posterior location of M1 fiber tracts and the evolving topography of ACA stroke due to the compensatory capacity of leptomeningeal anastomoses.

Comparison of the predictive ability of clinical frailty scale and hospital frailty risk score to determine long-term survival in critically ill patients: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is the most commonly used frailty measure in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The hospital frailty risk score (HFRS) was recently proposed for the quantification of frailty. We aimed to compare the HFRS with the CFS in critically ill patients in predicting long-term survival up to one year following ICU admission. METHODS: In this retrospective multicentre cohort study from 16 public ICUs in the state of Victoria, Australia between 1st January 2017 and 30th June 2018, ICU admission episodes listed in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database registry with a documented CFS, which had been linked with the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and the Victorian Death Index were examined. The HFRS was calculated for each patient using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes that represented pre-existing conditions at the time of index hospital admission. Descriptive methods, Cox proportional hazards and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) were used to investigate the association between each frailty score and long-term survival up to 1 year, after adjusting for confounders including sex and baseline severity of illness on admission to ICU (Australia New Zealand risk-of-death, ANZROD). RESULTS: 7001 ICU patients with both frailty measures were analysed. The overall median (IQR) age was 63.7 (49.1-74.0) years; 59.5% (n = 4166) were male; the median (IQR) APACHE II score 14 (10-20). Almost half (46.7%, n = 3266) were mechanically ventilated. The hospital mortality was 9.5% (n = 642) and 1-year mortality was 14.4% (n = 1005). HFRS correlated weakly with CFS (Spearman's rho 0.13 (95% CI 0.10-0.15) and had a poor agreement (kappa = 0.12, 95% CI 0.10-0.15). Both frailty measures predicted 1-year survival after adjusting for confounders, CFS (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.21-1.31) and HFRS (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.15). The CFS had better discrimination of 1-year mortality than HFRS (AUROC 0.66 vs 0.63 p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Both HFRS and CFS independently predicted up to 1-year survival following an ICU admission with moderate discrimination. The CFS was a better predictor of 1-year survival than the HFRS.

Care of older people and people requiring palliative care with COVID-19: guidance from the Australian National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce.

INTRODUCTION: Older people living with frailty and/or cognitive impairment who have coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) experience higher rates of critical illness. There are also people who become critically ill with COVID-19 for whom a decision is made to take a palliative approach to their care. The need for clinical guidance in these two populations resulted in the formation of the Care of Older People and Palliative Care Panel of the National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce in June 2020. This specialist panel consists of nursing, medical, pharmacy and allied health experts in geriatrics and palliative care from across Australia. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: The panel was tasked with developing two clinical flow charts for the management of people with COVID-19 who are i) older and living with frailty and/or cognitive impairment, and ii) receiving palliative care for COVID-19 or other underlying illnesses. The flow charts focus on goals of care, communication, medication management, escalation of care, active disease-directed care, and managing symptoms such as delirium, anxiety, agitation, breathlessness or cough. The Taskforce also developed living guideline recommendations for the care of adults with COVID-19, including a commentary to discuss special considerations when caring for older people and those requiring palliative care. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS RESULT OF THE GUIDELINE: The practice points in the flow charts emphasise quality clinical care, with a focus on addressing the most important challenges when caring for older individuals and people with COVID-19 requiring palliative care. The adult recommendations contain additional considerations for the care of older people and those requiring palliative care.

Patient-reported outcome measures to evaluate postoperative quality of life in patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: To appraise the measurement properties of generic patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) measuring postoperative quality of life in adults undergoing elective abdominal surgery. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of PROMs administered after elective abdominal surgery. We systematically searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, the Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature database, and the Cochrane Library from earliest available dates to July 24, 2021, using relevant search terms. Articles were included if they reported assessment of measurement properties of a generic PROM/s measuring postoperative quality of life in adults who had undergone elective abdominal surgery. We used the Consensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) Risk of Bias checklist to assess methodological quality. We synthesized the data and used the COSMIN criteria for good measurement properties and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations criteria to rate the certainty of evidence. RESULTS: Of 12,121 identified articles, nine articles assessing five PROMs (SF-6D, EQ-5D, SF-36, SF-12, PROMIS-10) met inclusion criteria. Measurement properties assessed included internal consistency (n = 2), construct validity (n = 5), and responsiveness (n = 8). Two PROMs had high quality evidence for a single measurement property each. The SF-6D demonstrated high quality evidence for responsiveness and the EQ-5D had high quality evidence for construct validity. CONCLUSION: There is insufficient evidence to support the choice of a specific generic PROM to evaluate quality of life following elective abdominal surgery. Clinicians and researchers should be aware of the current limitations in knowledge of the measurement properties of available PROMs.

Quality of life after stroke: a longitudinal analysis of a cluster randomized trial.

PURPOSE: Health-related quality of life (QoL) is poor after stroke, but may be improved with comprehensive care plans. We aimed to determine the effects of an individualized management program on QoL in people with stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), describe changes in QoL over time, and identify variables associated with QoL. METHODS: This was a multicenter, cluster randomized controlled trial with blinded assessment of outcomes and intention-to-treat analysis. Patients with stroke or TIA aged ≥ 18 years were randomized by general practice to receive usual care or an intervention comprising a tailored chronic disease management plan and education. QoL was assessed at baseline and 3, 12, and 24 months after baseline using the Assessment of Quality of Life instrument. Patient responses were converted to utility scores ranging from - 0.04 (worse than death) to 1.00 (good health). Mixed-effects models were used for analyses. RESULTS: Among 563 participants recruited (mean age 68.4 years, 64.5% male), median utility scores ranged from 0.700 to 0.772 at different time points, with no difference observed between intervention and usual care groups. QoL improved significantly from baseline to 3 months (ß = 0.019; P = 0.015) and 12 months (ß = 0.033; P < 0.001), but not from baseline to 24 months (ß = 0.013; P = 0.140) in both groups combined. Older age, females, lower educational attainment, greater handicap, anxiety and depression were longitudinally associated with poor QoL. CONCLUSION: An individualized management program did not improve QoL over 24 months. Those who are older, female, with lower educational attainment, greater anxiety, depression and handicap may require greater support. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.anzctr.org.au . Unique identifier: ACTRN12608000166370.

Defining ICD-10 surrogate variables to estimate the modified frailty index: a Delphi-based approach.

BACKGROUND: There are currently no validated globally and freely available tools to estimate the modified frailty index (mFI). The widely available and non-proprietary International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) coding could be used as a surrogate for the mFI. We aimed to establish an appropriate set of the ICD-10 codes for comorbidities to be used to estimate the eleven-variable mFI. METHODS: A three-stage, web-based, Delphi consensus-building process among a panel of intensivists and geriatricians using iterative rounds of an online survey, was conducted between March and July 2021. The consensus was set a priori at 75% overall agreement. Additionally, we assessed if survey responses differed between intensivists and geriatricians. Finally, we ascertained the level of agreement. RESULTS: A total of 21 clinicians participated in all 3 Delphi surveys. Most (86%, 18/21) had more than 5-years' experience as specialists. The agreement proportionately increased with every Delphi survey. After the third survey, the panel had reached 75% consensus in 87.5% (112/128) of ICD-10 codes. The initially included 128 ICD-10 variables were narrowed down to 54 at the end of the 3 surveys. The inter-rater agreements between intensivists and geriatricians were moderate for surveys 1 and 3 (κ = 0.728, κ = 0.780) respectively, and strong for survey 2 (κ = 0.811). CONCLUSIONS: This quantitative Delphi survey of a panel of experienced intensivists and geriatricians achieved consensus for appropriate ICD-10 codes to estimate the mFI. Future studies should focus on validating the mFI estimated from these ICD-10 codes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

Modelling STEMI service delivery: a proof of concept study.

BACKGROUND: Access to individual percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) centres has traditionally been determined by historical referral patterns along arbitrarily defined geographic boundaries. We set out to produce predictive models of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) demand and time-efficient access to PCI centres. METHODS: Travel times from random addresses to PCI centres in Melbourne, Australia, were estimated using Google map application programming interface (API). Departures at 08:15 and 17:15 were compared with 23:00 to determine the effect of peak hour traffic congestion. Real-world ambulance travel times were compared with estimated travel times using Google map developer software. STEMI incidence per postcode was estimated by merging STEMI incidence per age group data with age group per postcode census data. PCI centre network configuration changes were assessed for their effect on hospital STEMI loading, catchment size, travel times and the number of STEMI cases within 30 min of a PCI centre. RESULTS: Nearly 10% of STEMI cases travelled more than 30 min to a PCI centre, increasing to 20% by modelling the removal of large outer metropolitan PCI centres (p<0.05). A model of 7 PCI centres compared favourably to the current existing network of 11 PCI centres (p=0.18 (afternoon), p=0.5 (morning and night)). The intraclass correlation between estimated travel times and ambulance travel times was 0.82, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: This paper provides a framework to integrate prehospital environmental variables, existing or altered healthcare resources and health statistics to objectively model STEMI demand and consequent access to PCI. Our methodology can be modified to incorporate other inputs to compute optimum healthcare efficiencies.