Medical history predicts phenome-wide disease onset and enables the rapid response to emerging health threats.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed a global deficiency of systematic, data-driven guidance to identify high-risk individuals. Here, we illustrate the utility of routinely recorded medical history to predict the risk for 1883 diseases across clinical specialties and support the rapid response to emerging health threats such as COVID-19. We developed a neural network to learn from health records of 502,460 UK Biobank. Importantly, we observed discriminative improvements over basic demographic predictors for 1774 (94.3%) endpoints. After transferring the unmodified risk models to the All of US cohort, we replicated these improvements for 1347 (89.8%) of 1500 investigated endpoints, demonstrating generalizability across healthcare systems and historically underrepresented groups. Ultimately, we showed how this approach could have been used to identify individuals vulnerable to severe COVID-19. Our study demonstrates the potential of medical history to support guidance for emerging pandemics by systematically estimating risk for thousands of diseases at once at minimal cost.

Neural network-based integration of polygenic and clinical information: development and validation of a prediction model for 10-year risk of major adverse cardiac events in the UK Biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND: In primary cardiovascular disease prevention, early identification of high-risk individuals is crucial. Genetic information allows for the stratification of genetic predispositions and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. However, towards clinical application, the added value over clinical predictors later in life is crucial. Currently, this genotype-phenotype relationship and implications for overall cardiovascular risk are unclear. METHODS: In this study, we developed and validated a neural network-based risk model (NeuralCVD) integrating polygenic and clinical predictors in 395 713 cardiovascular disease-free participants from the UK Biobank cohort. The primary outcome was the first record of a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) within 10 years. We compared the NeuralCVD model with both established clinical scores (SCORE, ASCVD, and QRISK3 recalibrated to the UK Biobank cohort) and a linear Cox-Model, assessing risk discrimination, net reclassification, and calibration over 22 spatially distinct recruitment centres. FINDINGS: The NeuralCVD score was well calibrated and improved on the best clinical baseline, QRISK3 (ΔConcordance index [C-index] 0·01, 95% CI 0·009-0·011; net reclassification improvement (NRI) 0·0488, 95% CI 0·0442-0·0534) and a Cox model (ΔC-index 0·003, 95% CI 0·002-0·004; NRI 0·0469, 95% CI 0·0429-0·0511) in risk discrimination and net reclassification. After adding polygenic scores we found further improvements on population level (ΔC-index 0·006, 95% CI 0·005-0·007; NRI 0·0116, 95% CI 0·0066-0·0159). Additionally, we identified an interaction of genetic information with the pre-existing clinical phenotype, not captured by conventional models. Additional high polygenic risk increased overall risk most in individuals with low to intermediate clinical risk, and age younger than 50 years. INTERPRETATION: Our results demonstrated that the NeuralCVD score can estimate cardiovascular risk trajectories for primary prevention. NeuralCVD learns the transition of predictive information from genotype to phenotype and identifies individuals with high genetic predisposition before developing a severe clinical phenotype. This finding could improve the reprioritisation of otherwise low-risk individuals with a high genetic cardiovascular predisposition for preventive interventions. FUNDING: Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Einstein Foundation Berlin, and the Medical Informatics Initiative.

Metabolomic profiles predict individual multidisease outcomes.

Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with ~1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously.

Alternative Splicing of Pericentrin Contributes to Cell Cycle Control in Cardiomyocytes.

Induction of cardiomyocyte proliferation is a promising option to regenerate the heart. Thus, it is important to elucidate mechanisms that contribute to the cell cycle arrest of mammalian cardiomyocytes. Here, we assessed the contribution of the pericentrin (Pcnt) S isoform to cell cycle arrest in postnatal cardiomyocytes. Immunofluorescence staining of Pcnt isoforms combined with SiRNA-mediated depletion indicates that Pcnt S preferentially localizes to the nuclear envelope, while the Pcnt B isoform is enriched at centrosomes. This is further supported by the localization of ectopically expressed FLAG-tagged Pcnt S and Pcnt B in postnatal cardiomyocytes. Analysis of centriole configuration upon Pcnt depletion revealed that Pcnt B but not Pcnt S is required for centriole cohesion. Importantly, ectopic expression of Pcnt S induced centriole splitting in a heterologous system, ARPE-19 cells, and was sufficient to impair DNA synthesis in C2C12 myoblasts. Moreover, Pcnt S depletion enhanced serum-induced cell cycle re-entry in postnatal cardiomyocytes. Analysis of mitosis, binucleation rate, and cell number suggests that Pcnt S depletion enhances serum-induced progression of postnatal cardiomyocytes through the cell cycle resulting in cell division. Collectively, our data indicate that alternative splicing of Pcnt contributes to the establishment of cardiomyocyte cell cycle arrest shortly after birth.

Hypertension delays viral clearance and exacerbates airway hyperinflammation in patients with COVID-19.

In coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), hypertension and cardiovascular diseases are major risk factors for critical disease progression. However, the underlying causes and the effects of the main anti-hypertensive therapies-angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs)-remain unclear. Combining clinical data (n = 144) and single-cell sequencing data of airway samples (n = 48) with in vitro experiments, we observed a distinct inflammatory predisposition of immune cells in patients with hypertension that correlated with critical COVID-19 progression. ACEI treatment was associated with dampened COVID-19-related hyperinflammation and with increased cell intrinsic antiviral responses, whereas ARB treatment related to enhanced epithelial-immune cell interactions. Macrophages and neutrophils of patients with hypertension, in particular under ARB treatment, exhibited higher expression of the pro-inflammatory cytokines CCL3 and CCL4 and the chemokine receptor CCR1. Although the limited size of our cohort does not allow us to establish clinical efficacy, our data suggest that the clinical benefits of ACEI treatment in patients with COVID-19 who have hypertension warrant further investigation.