Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions.

Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.

Genome-wide analyses reveal drivers of penguin diversification.

Penguins are the only extant family of flightless diving birds. They currently comprise at least 18 species, distributed from polar to tropical environments in the Southern Hemisphere. The history of their diversification and adaptation to these diverse environments remains controversial. We used 22 new genomes from 18 penguin species to reconstruct the order, timing, and location of their diversification, to track changes in their thermal niches through time, and to test for associated adaptation across the genome. Our results indicate that the penguin crown-group originated during the Miocene in New Zealand and Australia, not in Antarctica as previously thought, and that Aptenodytes is the sister group to all other extant penguin species. We show that lineage diversification in penguins was largely driven by changing climatic conditions and by the opening of the Drake Passage and associated intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Penguin species have introgressed throughout much of their evolutionary history, following the direction of the ACC, which might have promoted dispersal and admixture. Changes in thermal niches were accompanied by adaptations in genes that govern thermoregulation and oxygen metabolism. Estimates of ancestral effective population sizes (Ne ) confirm that penguins are sensitive to climate shifts, as represented by three different demographic trajectories in deeper time, the most common (in 11 of 18 penguin species) being an increased Ne between 40 and 70 kya, followed by a precipitous decline during the Last Glacial Maximum. The latter effect is most likely a consequence of the overall decline in marine productivity following the last glaciation.

Phylogeography, Population Structure, and Species Delimitation in Rockhopper Penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome and Eudyptes moseleyi).

Rockhopper penguins are delimited as 2 species, the northern rockhopper (Eudyptes moseleyi) and the southern rockhopper (Eudyptes chrysocome), with the latter comprising 2 subspecies, the western rockhopper (Eudyptes chrysocome chrysocome) and the eastern rockhopper (Eudyptes chrysocome filholi). We conducted a phylogeographic study using multilocus data from 114 individuals sampled across 12 colonies from the entire range of the northern/southern rockhopper complex to assess potential population structure, gene flow, and species limits. Bayesian and likelihood methods with nuclear and mitochondrial DNA, including model testing and heuristic approaches, support E. moseleyi and E. chrysocome as distinct species lineages with a divergence time of 0.97 Ma. However, these analyses also indicated the presence of gene flow between these species. Among southern rockhopper subspecies, we found evidence of significant gene flow and heuristic approaches to species delimitation based on the genealogical diversity index failed to delimit them as species. The best-supported population models for the southern rockhoppers were those where E. c. chrysocome and E. c. filholi were combined into a single lineage or 2 lineages with bidirectional gene flow. Additionally, we found that E. c. filholi has the highest effective population size while E. c. chrysocome showed similar effective population size to that of the endangered E. moseleyi. We suggest that the current taxonomic definitions within rockhopper penguins be upheld and that E. chrysocome populations, all found south of the subtropical front, should be treated as a single taxon with distinct management units for E. c. chrysocome and E. c. filholi.

Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics.

Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time-area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly of assessing management interventions in marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, modelled increases in population growth rates exceeded 1% at one colony; i.e. the threshold considered biologically meaningful by fisheries management in South Africa. Fishing closures evidently can improve the population trend of a forage-fish-dependent predator-we therefore recommend they continue in South Africa and support their application elsewhere. However, detecting demographic gains for mobile marine predators from small no-take zones requires experimental time frames and scales that will often exceed those desired by decision makers.

Patterns of respiration in diving penguins: is the last gasp an inspired tactic?

Humboldt penguins Spheniscus humboldti in captivity and free-living Magellanic penguins S. magellanicus were fitted with loggers to determine beak angles during breathing. The Humboldt penguins were also fitted with masks for determining rates of air flow during breathing. During periods of higher gas exchange requirement, Humboldt penguins opened their beaks during inspiration, where tidal volume was linearly correlated with both change in beak angle and maximum beak angle, closed them slightly during the final stages of inspiration and finally closed them during expiration. Substantial differences were apparent between individuals. Contrary to the condition proposed for most birds, our data suggest that expiration is passive during periods of high respiratory tidal volumes, and that the increased resistance of the respiratory pathway serves to slow air flow so as to maximize gas exchange in the lungs. During foraging, Magellanic penguins at the surface between dives showed similar breathing patterns but maximum beak angles were much higher and breath cycle time shorter, as would be expected for animals attempting to maximize gas exchange. Both maximum beak angle per breath and breath frequency changed systematically over the surface pause; both were initially high, then decreased to a low before rising again to a maximum just before diving. Based on known changes in tidal volume with beak angle derived from Humboldt penguins, a simple model is proposed to examine rates of gas exchange over the surface pause. This indicates that the observed patterns do not maximize the rate of transfer of oxygen over the whole of the surface pause but are rather concerned with an initial rapid accumulation of oxygen in the tissues followed by effective carbon dioxide release.