Assessment for Antibodies to Rifapentine and Isoniazid in Persons Developing Flu-like Reactions During Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection.

BACKGROUND: Flu-like reactions can occur after exposure to rifampin, rifapentine, or isoniazid. Prior studies have reported the presence of antibodies to rifampin, but associations with underlying pathogenesis are unclear. METHODS: We evaluated PREVENT TB study participants who received weekly isoniazid + rifapentine for 3 months (3HP) or daily isoniazid for 9 months (9H) as treatment for M. tuberculosis infection. Flu-like reaction was defined as a grade ≥2 of any of flu-like symptoms. Controls (3HP or 9H) did not report flu-like reactions. We developed a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) to detect antibodies against rifapentine, isoniazid, rifampin, and rifapentine metabolite. RESULTS: Among 128 participants, 69 received 3HP (22 with flu-like reactions; 47 controls) and 59 received 9H (12 with flu-like reactions; 47 controls). In participants receiving 3HP, anti-rifapentine IgG was identified in 2/22 (9%) participants with flu-like reactions and 6/47 (13%) controls (P = 0.7), anti-isoniazid IgG in 2/22 (9%) participants with flu-like reactions and 4/47 (9%) controls (P = 0.9), and anti-rifapentine metabolite IgG in 2/47 (4%) controls (P = 0.9). Among participants receiving 9H, IgG and IgM anti-isoniazid antibodies were each present in 4/47 (9%) controls, respectively, but none among participants with flu-like reactions; anti-rifapentine IgG antibodies were not present in any participants with flu-like reactions or controls. CONCLUSIONS: We detected anti-rifapentine, anti-isoniazid, and anti-rifapentine metabolite antibodies, but the proportions of participants with antibodies were low, and did not differ between participants with flu-like reactions and those without such reactions. This suggests that flu-like reactions associated with 3HP and 9H were not antibody-mediated.

Effect of Smoking on Longitudinal Interferon-ϒ Release Assay Results among Close Contacts of People with Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

Diagnosis of M. tuberculosis (Mtb) infection in close contacts is critical for TB control. Smoking is a risk factor for Mtb infection and TB disease but its effect on longitudinal interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) results remains unknown. We conducted a multi-site prospective study in Brazil between 2015-2019, among close contacts of adults with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB. IGRA was performed at baseline, month 6 if negative at baseline, and month 24-30 after enrollment. IGRA results were categorized as IGRA-positive (maintained from baseline to last visit), IGRA-conversion (from negative to positive at any time), IGRA-reversion (from positive to negative at any time), and IGRA-negative (maintained from baseline to last visit). Associations between IGRA results and smoking status at baseline (current/former vs never) in contacts were evaluated using propensity score-adjusted logistic regression models. Estimated propensity score was used as a covariate in models, which regressed the outcome (IGRA-positive, IGRA-conversion, IGRA-reversion) on smoking status. Of 430 close contacts, 89 (21%) were IGRA-positive, 30 (7%) were converters, 30 (7%) were reverters and 22 were indeterminate. Smoking frequency was 26 (29%) among IGRA-positive contacts, 7 (23%) in converters, and 3 (10%) in reverters. Smoking in contacts was associated with lower odds of IGRA-reversion (adjusted odds ratio = 0.16; 95% confidence interval = [0.03-0.70]). We did not detect associations between smoking and IGRA-positive or IGRA-conversion. Our findings highlight the importance of smoking on longitudinal IGRA results. This has implications for clinical care and clinical trials in which IGRA status is monitored or used as an outcome.

Prediction Models for Adverse Drug Reactions During Tuberculosis Treatment in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) treatment-related adverse drug reactions (TB-ADRs) can negatively affect adherence and treatment success rates. METHODS: We developed prediction models for TB-ADRs, considering participants with drug-susceptible pulmonary TB who initiated standard TB therapy. TB-ADRs were determined by the physician attending the participant, assessing causality to TB drugs, the affected organ system, and grade. Potential baseline predictors of TB-ADR included concomitant medication (CM) use, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), age, body mass index (BMI), sex, substance use, and TB drug metabolism variables (NAT2 acetylator profiles). The models were developed through bootstrapped backward selection. Cox regression was used to evaluate TB-ADR risk. RESULTS: There were 156 TB-ADRs among 102 of the 945 (11%) participants included. Most TB-ADRs were hepatic (n = 82 [53%]), of moderate severity (grade 2; n = 121 [78%]), and occurred in NAT2 slow acetylators (n = 62 [61%]). The main prediction model included CM use, HbA1c, alcohol use, HIV seropositivity, BMI, and age, with robust performance (c-statistic = 0.79 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .74-.83) and fit (optimism-corrected slope and intercept of -0.09 and 0.94, respectively). An alternative model replacing BMI with NAT2 had similar performance. HIV seropositivity (hazard ratio [HR], 2.68 [95% CI, 1.75-4.09]) and CM use (HR, 5.26 [95% CI, 2.63-10.52]) increased TB-ADR risk. CONCLUSIONS: The models, with clinical variables and with NAT2, were highly predictive of TB-ADRs.

Transcriptomic signatures of progression to TB disease among close contacts in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 5% of people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis progress to tuberculosis (TB) disease without preventive therapy. There is a need for a prognostic test to identify those at highest risk of incident TB, so that therapy can be targeted. We evaluated host blood transcriptomic signatures for progression to TB disease. METHODS: Close contacts (≥4 hours exposure per week) of adult patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB were enrolled in Brazil. Investigation for incident, microbiologically-confirmed or clinically-diagnosed pulmonary or extra-pulmonary TB disease through 24 months of follow-up was symptom-triggered. Twenty previously validated blood TB transcriptomic signatures were measured at baseline by real-time quantitative PCR. Prognostic performance for incident TB was tested using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis at 6, 9, 12, and 24 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Between June 2015 and June 2019, 1,854 close contacts were enrolled; Twenty-five progressed to incident TB, of whom 13 had microbiologically-confirmed disease. Baseline transcriptomic signature scores were measured in 1,789 close contacts. Prognostic performance for all signatures was best within 6 months of diagnosis. Seven signatures (Gliddon4, Suliman4, Roe3, Roe1, Penn-Nicholson6, Francisco2, and Rajan5) met the minimum World Health Organization target product profile (TPP) for a prognostic test through 6 months; three (Gliddon4, Rajan5, and Duffy9) through 9 months. None met the TPP threshold through 12 or more months of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Blood transcriptomic signatures may be useful for predicting TB risk within 9 months of measurement among TB-exposed contacts, to target preventive therapy administration.

Misclassification of Loss to Care Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Improved Capture of Silent Transfers Through Surveillance Linkage Using Statewide Mandatorily Reported Laboratory Measures.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-positive individuals lost to follow-up from particular clinics may not be lost to care (LTC). After linking Vanderbilt's Comprehensive Care Clinic cohort to Tennessee's statewide HIV surveillance database, LTC decreased from 48.4% to 35.0% at 10 years. Routine surveillance linkage by domestic HIV clinics would improve LTC and retention measure accuracy.

The Xpert® MTB/RIF cycle threshold value predicts M. tuberculosis transmission to close contacts in a Brazilian prospective multicenter cohort.

BACKGROUND: The Xpert® MTB/RIF rapid molecular test provides a quantitative measure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) DNA in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values. This information can be translated into mycobacterial load and used as a potential risk measure of bacterial spread for tuberculosis cases, which can impact infection control. However, the role of Ct values in assessing Mtb transmission to close contacts has not yet been demonstrated. METHODS: A prospective study was performed to investigate the association between Xpert® MTB/RIF Ct values and Mtb transmission to close contacts of patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB in a multi-center Brazilian cohort. We evaluated clinical and laboratory data, such as age, sex, race, smoking habits, drug use, alcohol use, chest radiograph, Xpert® MTB/RIF results among pulmonary tuberculosis cases, and QuantiFERON(QFT)-Plus results at baseline and after six months for close contacts who had a negative result at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 1,055 close contacts of 382 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were included in the study. The median Ct values from pulmonary tuberculosis cases of QFT-Plus positive (at baseline or six months) close contacts were lower compared with those who were QFT-Plus negative. An adjusted logistic regression demonstrated that reduced Ct values from the index cases were independently associated with QFT-Plus conversion from negative to positive (OR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.12-2.32) after adjusting for clinical characteristics. CONCLUSION: Close contacts of pulmonary TB index cases exhibiting low Xpert MTB/RIF Ct values displayed higher rates of TB infection, reflecting Mtb transmission.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Machine learning algorithms using national registry data to predict loss to follow-up during tuberculosis treatment.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at increased risk of loss to follow-up (LTFU) is key to developing strategies to optimize the clinical management of tuberculosis (TB). The use of national registry data in prediction models may be a useful tool to inform healthcare workers about risk of LTFU. Here we developed a score to predict the risk of LTFU during anti-TB treatment (ATT) in a nationwide cohort of cases using clinical data reported to the Brazilian Notifiable Disease Information System (SINAN). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of all TB cases reported to SINAN between 2015 and 2022; excluding children (< 18 years-old), vulnerable groups or drug-resistant TB. For the score, data before treatment initiation were used. We trained and internally validated three different prediction scoring systems, based on Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Light Gradient Boosting. Before applying our models we splitted our data into training (~ 80% data) and test (~ 20%) sets, and then compared the model metrics using the test data set. RESULTS: Of the 243,726 cases included, 41,373 experienced LTFU whereas 202,353 were successfully treated. The groups were different with regards to several clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. The directly observed treatment (DOT) was unbalanced between the groups with lower prevalence in those who were LTFU. Three models were developed to predict LTFU using 8 features (prior TB, drug use, age, sex, HIV infection and schooling level) with different score composition approaches. Those prediction scoring systems exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) ranging between 0.71 and 0.72. The Light Gradient Boosting technique resulted in the best prediction performance, weighting specificity and sensitivity. A user-friendly web calculator app was developed ( https://tbprediction.herokuapp.com/ ) to facilitate implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Our nationwide risk score predicts the risk of LTFU during ATT in Brazilian adults prior to treatment commencement utilizing schooling level, sex, age, prior TB status, and substance use (drug, alcohol, and/or tobacco). This is a potential tool to assist in decision-making strategies to guide resource allocation, DOT indications, and improve TB treatment adherence.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Gene Expression Associated With Fluoroquinolone Resistance and Efflux Pump Inhibition.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the relationship between response to efflux pump inhibition in fluoroquinolone-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) isolates and differences in gene expression and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL). METHODS: We determined ofloxacin minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for ofloxacin-resistant and -susceptible Mtb isolates without and with the efflux pump inhibitor verapamil. We performed RNA sequencing (RNA-seq), whole genome sequencing (WGS), and eQTL analysis, focusing on efflux pump, transport, and secretion-associated genes. RESULTS: Of 42 ofloxacin-resistant Mtb isolates, 27 had adequate WGS coverage and acceptable RNA-seq quality. Of these 27, 7 had >2-fold reduction in ofloxacin MIC with verapamil; 6 had 2-fold reduction, and 14 had <2-fold reduction. Five genes (including Rv0191) had significantly increased expression in the MIC fold change >2 compared to <2 groups. Among regulated genes, 31 eQTLs (without ofloxacin) and 35 eQTLs (with ofloxacin) had significant allele frequency differences between MIC fold change >2 and <2 groups. Of these, Rv1410c, Rv2459, and Rv3756c (without ofloxacin) and Rv0191 and Rv3756c (with ofloxacin) have previously been associated with antituberculosis drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: In this first reported eQTL analysis in Mtb, Rv0191 had increased gene expression and significance in eQTL analysis, making it a candidate for functional evaluation of efflux-mediated fluoroquinolone resistance in Mtb.

Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in Brazil: Different Predictors for Each Type of Unsuccessful Outcome.

BACKGROUND: Successful tuberculosis (TB) treatment is necessary for disease control. The World Health Organization (WHO) has a target TB treatment success rate of ≥90%. We assessed whether the different types of unfavorable TB treatment outcome had different predictors. METHODS: Using data from Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis-Brazil, we evaluated biological and behavioral factors associated with each component of unsuccessful TB outcomes, recently updated by WHO (death, loss to follow-up [LTFU], and treatment failure). We included culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible, pulmonary TB participants receiving standard treatment in 2015-2019. Multinomial logistic regression models with inverse probability weighting were used to evaluate the distinct determinants of each unsuccessful outcome. RESULTS: Of 915 participants included, 727 (79%) were successfully treated, 118 (13%) were LTFU, 44 (5%) had treatment failure, and 26 (3%) died. LTFU was associated with current drug-use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-9.4), current tobacco use (aOR = 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9), and being a person with HIV (PWH) (aOR = 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5). Treatment failure was associated with PWH (aOR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.2-6.2) and having diabetes (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.4). Death was associated with anemia (aOR = 5.3; 95% CI, 1.4-19.7), diabetes (aOR = 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-6.7), and PWH (aOR = 3.9; 95% CI, 1.3-11.4). Direct observed therapy was protective for treatment failure (aOR = 0.5; 95% CI, .3-.9) and death (aOR = 0.5; 95% CI, .2-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment success rate was below the WHO target. Behavioral factors were most associated with LTFU, whereas clinical comorbidities were correlated with treatment failure and death. Because determinants of unsuccessful outcomes are distinct, different intervention strategies may be needed to improve TB outcomes.

Optimizing Treatment for Human Immunodeficiency Virus to Improve Clinical Outcomes Using Precision Medicine.

In first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, some subgroups of patients may respond better to an efavirenz-based regimen than an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimen, or vice versa, due to patient characteristics modifying treatment effects. Using data based on nearly 16,000 patients from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design from 2009-2016, statistical methods for precision medicine were employed to estimate an optimal treatment rule that minimizes the 5-year risk of the composite outcome of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses, serious non-AIDS events, and all-cause mortality. The treatment rules considered were functions that recommend either an efavirenz- or InSTI-based regimen conditional on baseline patient characteristics such as demographic information, laboratory results, and health history. The estimated 5-year risk under the estimated optimal treatment rule was 10.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6, 11.3), corresponding to an absolute risk reduction of 2.3% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.8) when compared with recommending an efavirenz-based regimen for all patients and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.0, 4.2) when compared with recommending an InSTI-based regimen for all. Tailoring ART to individual patient characteristics may reduce 5-year risk of the composite outcome compared with assigning all patients the same drug regimen.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Initial Prescription of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People With HIV in the US.

Importance: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes. Objectives: To estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Exposures: Combined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens. Results: Of 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, -1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, -1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, -6% [95% CI, -8% to -4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

The Effect of Diabetes and Prediabetes on Antituberculosis Treatment Outcomes: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diabetes or prediabetes affects unfavorable treatment outcomes and death in people with tuberculosis (PWTB). METHODS: Culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible PWTB, enrolled in the Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil cohort between 2015 and 2019 (N = 643) were stratified based on glycemic status according to baseline glycated hemoglobin. Unfavorable tuberculosis (TB) outcome was defined as treatment failure or modification, recurrence, or death; favorable outcome was cure or treatment completion. We corroborated the findings using data from PWTB reported to the Brazilian National System of Diseases Notification (SINAN) during 2015-2019 (N = 20 989). Logistic regression models evaluated associations between glycemic status and outcomes. RESULTS: In both cohorts, in univariate analysis, unfavorable outcomes were more frequently associated with smoking, illicit drug use, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. Diabetes, but not prediabetes, was associated with unfavorable outcomes in the RePORT-Brazil (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 2.45; P < .001) and SINAN (aRR, 1.76; P < .001) cohorts. Furthermore, diabetes was associated with high risk of death (during TB treatment) in both RePORT-Brazil (aRR, 2.16; P = .040) and SINAN (aRR, 1.93; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcomes and mortality in Brazilian PWTB. Interventions to improve TB treatment outcomes in persons with diabetes are needed.

Five-Year Mortality for Adults Entering Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Under Universal Early Treatment Compared With the General US Population.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains elevated over those in the US general population, even in the years after entry into HIV care. We explore whether the elevation in 5-year mortality would have persisted if all adults with HIV had initiated antiretroviral therapy within 3 months of entering care. METHODS: Among 82 766 adults entering HIV care at North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration clinical sites in the United States, we computed mortality over 5 years since entry into HIV care under observed treatment patterns. We then used inverse probability weights to estimate mortality under universal early treatment. To compare mortality with those for similar individuals in the general population, we used National Center for Health Statistics data to construct a cohort representing the subset of the US population matched to study participants on key characteristics. RESULTS: For the entire study period (1999-2017), the 5-year mortality among adults with HIV was 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6%-8.2%) higher than expected based on the US general population. Under universal early treatment, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV would have been 7.2% (95% CI: 5.8%-8.6%). In the most recent calendar period examined (2011-2017), the elevation in mortality for people with HIV was 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0%-3.3%) under observed treatment patterns and 2.1% (.0%-4.2%) under universal early treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding early treatment may modestly reduce, but not eliminate, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV.

A Clinical Prediction Model for Unsuccessful Pulmonary Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread availability of curative therapy, tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes remain suboptimal. Clinical prediction models can inform treatment strategies to improve outcomes. Using baseline clinical data, we developed a prediction model for unsuccessful TB treatment outcome and evaluated the incremental value of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related severity and isoniazid acetylator status. METHODS: Data originated from the Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis Brazil cohort, which enrolled newly diagnosed TB patients in Brazil from 2015 through 2019. This analysis included participants with culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible pulmonary TB who started first-line anti-TB therapy and had ≥12 months of follow-up. The end point was unsuccessful TB treatment: composite of death, treatment failure, regimen switch, incomplete treatment, or not evaluated. Missing predictors were imputed. Predictors were chosen via bootstrapped backward selection. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated with c-statistics and calibration plots, respectively. Bootstrap internal validation estimated overfitting, and a shrinkage factor was applied to improve out-of-sample prediction. Incremental value was evaluated with likelihood ratio-based measures. RESULTS: Of 944 participants, 191 (20%) had unsuccessful treatment outcomes. The final model included 7 baseline predictors: hemoglobin, HIV infection, drug use, diabetes, age, education, and tobacco use. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.77; 95% confidence interval, .73-.80) and was well calibrated (optimism-corrected intercept and slope, -0.12 and 0.89, respectively). HIV-related factors and isoniazid acetylation status did not improve prediction of the final model. CONCLUSIONS: Using information readily available at treatment initiation, the prediction model performed well in this population. The findings may guide future work to allocate resources or inform targeted interventions for high-risk patients.

Isoniazid Preventive Therapy in HIV-Infected Pregnant and Postpartum Women.

BACKGROUND: The safety, efficacy, and appropriate timing of isoniazid therapy to prevent tuberculosis in pregnant women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection who are receiving antiretroviral therapy are unknown. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, noninferiority trial, we randomly assigned pregnant women with HIV infection to receive isoniazid preventive therapy for 28 weeks, initiated either during pregnancy (immediate group) or at week 12 after delivery (deferred group). Mothers and infants were followed through week 48 after delivery. The primary outcome was a composite of treatment-related maternal adverse events of grade 3 or higher or permanent discontinuation of the trial regimen because of toxic effects. The noninferiority margin was an upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval for the between-group difference in the rate of the primary outcome of less than 5 events per 100 person-years. RESULTS: A total of 956 women were enrolled. A primary outcome event occurred in 72 of 477 women (15.1%) in the immediate group and in 73 of 479 (15.2%) in the deferred group (incidence rate, 15.03 and 14.93 events per 100 person-years, respectively; rate difference, 0.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.77 to 4.98, which met the criterion for noninferiority). Two women in the immediate group and 4 women in the deferred group died (incidence rate, 0.40 and 0.78 per 100 person-years, respectively; rate difference, -0.39; 95% CI, -1.33 to 0.56); all deaths occurred during the postpartum period, and 4 were from liver failure (2 of the women who died from liver failure had received isoniazid [1 in each group]). Tuberculosis developed in 6 women (3 in each group); the incidence rate was 0.60 per 100 person-years in the immediate group and 0.59 per 100 person-years in the deferred group (rate difference, 0.01; 95% CI, -0.94 to 0.96). There was a higher incidence in the immediate group than in the deferred group of an event included in the composite adverse pregnancy outcome (stillbirth or spontaneous abortion, low birth weight in an infant, preterm delivery, or congenital anomalies in an infant) (23.6% vs. 17.0%; difference, 6.7 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.8 to 11.9). CONCLUSIONS: The risks associated with initiation of isoniazid preventive therapy during pregnancy appeared to be greater than those associated with initiation of therapy during the postpartum period. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; IMPAACT P1078 TB APPRISE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01494038.).

High mortality among patients hospitalized for drug-resistant tuberculosis with acquired second-line drug resistance and high HIV prevalence.

OBJECTIVES: We compared mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative South African adults with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) and high incidence of acquired second-line drug resistance. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of DR-TB patients with serial second-line TB drug susceptibility tests (2008-2015) who were hospitalized at a specialized TB hospital. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox models to examine associations with mortality. RESULTS: Of 245 patients, the median age was 33 years, 54% were male and 40% were HIV-positive, 96% of whom had ever received antiretroviral therapy (ART). At initial drug resistance detection, 99% of patients had resistance to at least rifampicin and isoniazid, and 18% had second-line drug resistance (fluoroquinolones and/or injectable drugs). At later testing, 88% of patients had acquired additional second-line drug resistance. Patient-initiated treatment interruptions (> 2 months) occurred in 47%. Mortality was 79%. Those with HIV had a shorter time to death (p = 0.02; log-rank): median survival time from DR-TB treatment initiation was 2.44 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.09-3.15] versus 3.99 years (95% CI: 3.12-4.75) for HIV-negative patients. HIV-positive patients who received ART within 6 months before DR-TB treatment had a higher mortality hazard than HIV-negative patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) ratio = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.21-2.74]. By contrast, HIV-positive patients who did not receive ART within 6 months before DR-TB treatment did not have a significantly higher mortality hazard than HIV-negative patients (aHR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.72-1.65), although those on ART had lower median CD4 counts than those not on ART (157 vs. 281 cells/µL, respectively; p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: A very high incidence of acquired second-line drug resistance and high overall mortality were observed, reinforcing the need to reduce the risk of acquired resistance and for more effective treatment.

Risk of HCC With Hepatitis B Viremia Among HIV/HBV-Coinfected Persons in North America.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic HBV is the predominant cause of HCC worldwide. Although HBV coinfection is common in HIV, the determinants of HCC in HIV/HBV coinfection are poorly characterized. We examined the predictors of HCC in a multicohort study of individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included persons coinfected with HIV/HBV within 22 cohorts of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (1995-2016). First occurrence of HCC was verified by medical record review and/or cancer registry. We used multivariable Cox regression to determine adjusted HRs (aHRs [95% CIs]) of factors assessed at cohort entry (age, sex, race, body mass index), ever during observation (heavy alcohol use, HCV), or time-updated (HIV RNA, CD4+ percentage, diabetes mellitus, HBV DNA). Among 8,354 individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV (median age, 43 years; 93% male; 52.4% non-White), 115 HCC cases were diagnosed over 65,392 person-years (incidence rate, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5-2.1] events/1,000 person-years). Risk factors for HCC included age 40-49 years (aHR, 1.97 [1.22-3.17]), age ≥50 years (aHR, 2.55 [1.49-4.35]), HCV coinfection (aHR, 1.61 [1.07-2.40]), and heavy alcohol use (aHR, 1.52 [1.04-2.23]), while time-updated HIV RNA >500 copies/mL (aHR, 0.90 [0.56-1.43]) and time-updated CD4+ percentage <14% (aHR, 1.03 [0.56-1.90]) were not. The risk of HCC was increased with time-updated HBV DNA >200 IU/mL (aHR, 2.22 [1.42-3.47]) and was higher with each 1.0 log10 IU/mL increase in time-updated HBV DNA (aHR, 1.18 [1.05-1.34]). HBV suppression with HBV-active antiretroviral therapy (ART) for ≥1 year significantly reduced HCC risk (aHR, 0.42 [0.24-0.73]). CONCLUSION: Individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV on ART with detectable HBV viremia remain at risk for HCC. To gain maximal benefit from ART for HCC prevention, sustained HBV suppression is necessary.

Tuberculosis treatment intermittency in the continuation phase and mortality in HIV-positive persons receiving antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Some tuberculosis (TB) treatment guidelines recommend daily TB treatment in both the intensive and continuation phases of treatment in HIV-positive persons to decrease the risk of relapse and acquired drug resistance. However, guidelines vary across countries, and treatment is given 7, 5, 3, or 2 days/week. The effect of TB treatment intermittency in the continuation phase on mortality in HIV-positive persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART), is not well-described. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study among HIV-positive adults treated for TB between 2000 and 2018 and after enrollment into the Caribbean, Central, and South America network for HIV epidemiology (CCASAnet; Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico and Peru). All received standard TB therapy (2-month initiation phase of daily isoniazid, rifampin or rifabutin, pyrazinamide ± ethambutol) and continuation phase of isoniazid and rifampin or rifabutin, administered concomitantly with ART. Known timing of ART and TB treatment were also inclusion criteria. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods compared time to death between groups. Missing model covariates were imputed via multiple imputation. RESULTS: 2303 patients met inclusion criteria: 2003(87%) received TB treatment 5-7 days/week and 300(13%) 2-3 days/week in the continuation phase. Intermittency varied by site: 100% of patients from Brazil and Haiti received continuation phase treatment 5-7 days/week, followed by Honduras (91%), Peru (42%), Mexico (7%), and Chile (0%). The crude risk of death was lower among those receiving treatment 5-7 vs. 2-3 days/week (HR = 0.68; 95% CI = 0.51-0.91; P = 0.008). After adjusting for age, sex, CD4, ART use at TB diagnosis, site of TB disease (pulmonary vs. extrapulmonary), and year of TB diagnosis, mortality risk was lower, but not significantly, among those treated 5-7 days/week vs. 2-3 days/week (HR 0.75, 95%CI 0.55-1.01; P = 0.06). After also stratifying by study site, there was no longer a protective effect (HR 1.42, 95%CI 0.83-2.45; P = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: TB treatment 5-7 days/week was associated with a marginally decreased risk of death compared to TB treatment 2-3 days/week in the continuation phase in multivariable, unstratified analyses. However, little variation in TB treatment intermittency within country meant the results could have been driven by other differences between study sites. Therefore, randomized trials are needed, especially in heterogenous regions such as Latin America.

Do contemporary antiretrovirals increase the risk of end-stage liver disease? Signals from patients starting therapy in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.

PURPOSE: Despite effective antiretroviral therapy, rates of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) remain high. It is not clear whether contemporary antiretrovirals contribute to the risk of ESLD. METHODS: We included patients from cohorts with validated ESLD data in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Patients had to initiate antiretroviral therapy after 1 January 2004 with a nucleos(t)ide backbone of either abacavir/lamivudine or tenofovir/emtricitabine and a contemporary third (anchor) drug. Patients were followed until a first ESLD event, death, end of a cohort's ESLD validation period, loss to follow-up or 31 December 2015. We estimated associations between cumulative exposure to each drug and ESLD using a hierarchical Bayesian survival model with weakly informative prior distributions. RESULTS: Among 10 564 patients included from 12 cohorts, 62 had an ESLD event. Of the nine anchor drugs, boosted protease inhibitors atazanavir and darunavir had the strongest signals for ESLD, with increasing hazard ratios (HR) and narrowing credible intervals (CrI), from a prior HR of 1.5 (95% CrI 0.32-7.1) per 5 year's exposure to posterior HRs respectively of 1.8 (95% CrI 0.82-3.9) and 2.0 (95% CrI 0.86-4.7). Both backbones and efavirenz showed no signal. Hepatitis C coinfection was the most important covariate risk factor (HR 4.4, 95% CrI 2.6-7.0). CONCLUSIONS: While contemporary antiretrovirals pose less risk for ESLD than hepatitis coinfection, atazanavir and darunavir had a toxicity signal. We show how hierarchical Bayesian modelling can be used to detect toxicity signals in cohort event monitoring data even with complex treatments and few events.