Predicting asthma morbidity in Harlem emergency department patients.

OBJECTIVES: To determine predictors of asthma morbidity in African American patients with asthma. Proxies for asthma morbidity were emergency department (ED) visits for asthma and hospitalizations for asthma. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study that evaluated baseline predictors of asthma morbidity in adults in an urban, predominantly African American community in New York City. Potential predictors of asthma morbidity evaluated were education, gender, employment status, current smoking status, asthma severity, duration of asthma, daily use of a peak flow meter, presence or absence of pets at home, presence or absence of a significant other, presence or absence of medical insurance, and previous hospitalization for asthma in the past year. Follow-up consisted of a repeat questionnaire obtained between nine and 15 months after the baseline questionnaire. Follow-up data collection was limited to the last three-month history of ED visits or hospitalizations before the follow-up visit. At follow-up, the baseline predictors were related to the presence or absence of ED visits for asthma or hospitalizations for asthma. All predictors were evaluated individually (crude odds ratio [OR]) and simultaneously (adjusted OR) in a logistic regression model with the dichotomous outcome variable ED visits or hospitalization. RESULTS: Return ED visits on follow-up were more likely to occur in asthma patients hospitalized in the previous year (adjusted OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7 to 9.0) and were less likely to occur in asthma patients with pets (OR, 0.4; 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.9). Patients with moderate/severe asthma, relative to patients with mild asthma, were more likely to be seen in the ED on follow-up on initial analysis (crude OR, 2.4; 95% CI = 1.1 to 1.5), but the adjusted OR was not significant. Follow-up hospitalizations were significantly more likely to occur only in subjects reporting daily use of a peak flow meter (OR, 6.8; 95% CI = 1.3 to 34.5). Subjects hospitalized for asthma in the previous year were more likely to be hospitalized subsequently on initial analysis (crude OR, 2.9; 95% CI = 1.0 to 8.1), but the adjusted OR was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: It appears that African American patients with asthma who had previous hospitalizations for asthma within the past year or use a peak flow meter daily (a marker for more severe asthma) are more likely to visit the ED in the future or to be hospitalized for asthma, respectively. These patients need to be targeted and treated more aggressively to improve asthma care and decrease morbidity. The apparent protective effect of the presence of pets on reducing ED visits is unclear at this time, and the findings need to be replicated and evaluated further.

Early continuity of care and immunization coverage.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the relationship between early and exclusive continuity of care at the initial source of care and immunization coverage. METHODS: We used a cohort study design with 641 randomly selected children initiating care before 3 months and making 2 or more visits to an inner-city practice network. We used 2 complementary data sources: medical records and the New York City Department of Health Citywide Immunization Registry. Immunization measures were cumulative age appropriate and up-to-date at 18 months (UTD18). RESULTS: There was a gradual attrition from the initial source of care. By 18 months, less than half the children (46%) remained in care. Regardless of continuity, nearly half (42%) had used other immunization providers. The initial source of care contributed most immunizations (89%-94%); however, across all levels of continuity, children who also used other providers had higher immunization rates. We found a threshold effect of continuity beginning at 12 months: children in care from 12 to 14 months were 17.5 times more likely to be UTD18 than those in care less than 6 months. Each additional period in care increased the time remaining current with immunizations. Among children UTD18, 88% were in care at 11 months compared with 38% among those not UTD18, a 50% difference. CONCLUSIONS: Continuity of care at the initial source of care had a significant and lasting impact on immunization coverage, even if not used exclusively. Interventions promoting continued use of the medical home over the first 2 years of life may help improve immunization coverage.

Evolution of epidemiologic methods and concepts in selected textbooks of the 20th century.

Textbooks are an expression of the state of development of a discipline at a given moment in time. By reviewing eight epidemiology textbooks published over the course of a century, we have attempted to trace the evolution of five epidemiologic concepts and methods: study design (cohort studies and case-control studies), confounding, bias, interaction and causal inference. Overall, these eight textbooks can be grouped into three generations. Greenwood (1935) and Hill (first edition 1937; version reviewed 1961)'s textbooks belong to the first generation, "early epidemiology", which comprise early definitions of bias and confounding. The second generation, "classic epidemiology", represented by the textbooks of Morris (first edition 1957; version reviewed 1964), MacMahon & Pugh (first edition 1960; version reviewed 1970), Susser (1973), and Lilienfeld & Lilienfeld (first edition 1976; version reviewed 1980), clarifies the properties of cohort and case-control study designs and the theory of disease causation. Miettinen (1985) and Rothman (1986)'s textbooks belong to a third generation, "modern epidemiology", presenting an integrated perspective on study designs and their measures of outcome, as well as distinguishing and formalizing the concepts of confounding and interaction. Our review demonstrates that epidemiology, as a scientific discipline, is in constant evolution and transformation. It is likely that new methodological tools, able to assess the complexity of the causes of human health, will be proposed in future generations of textbooks.

Community-provider partnerships to reduce immunization disparities: field report from northern Manhattan.

In 1996 we launched a community-provider partnership to raise immunization coverage for children aged younger than 3 years in Northern Manhattan, New York City. The partnership was aimed at fostering provider knowledge and accountability, practice improvements, and community outreach. By 1999 the partnership included 26 practices and 20 community groups. Between 1996 and 1999, immunization coverage rates increased in Northern Manhattan 5 times faster than in New York City and 8 times faster than in the United States (respectively, 3.4% vs 0.4% [t = 6.05, p < 0.001] and vs 0.6% [t = 5.65, p < 0.001]). The coverage rate for Northern Manhattan stayed constant through 2000, although it declined during this period for the United States and New York City. We attribute the success at reducing the gap to the effectiveness of our partnership.