Rationale and design of the early valve replacement in severe asymptomatic aortic stenosis trial.

BACKGROUND: Aortic valve replacement in asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis is controversial. The Early valve replacement in severe ASYmptomatic Aortic Stenosis (EASY-AS) trial aims to determine whether early aortic valve replacement improves clinical outcomes, quality of life and cost-effectiveness compared to a guideline recommended strategy of 'watchful waiting'. METHODS: In a pragmatic international, open parallel group randomized controlled trial (NCT04204915), 2844 patients with severe aortic stenosis will be randomized 1:1 to either a strategy of early (surgical or transcatheter) aortic valve replacement or aortic valve replacement only if symptoms or impaired left ventricular function develop, or other cardiac surgery becomes nessessary. Exclusion criteria include other severe valvular disease, planned cardiac surgery, ejection fraction <50%, previous aortic valve replacement or life expectancy <2 years. The primary outcome is a composite of cardiovascular mortality or heart failure hospitalization. The primary analysis will be undertaken when 663 primary events have accrued, providing 90% power to detect a reduction in the primary endpoint from 27.7% to 21.6% (hazard ratio 0.75). Secondary endpoints include disability-free survival, days alive and out of hospital, major adverse cardiovascular events and quality of life. RESULTS: Recruitment commenced in March 2020 and is open in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Serbia. Feasibility requirements were met in July 2022, and the main phase opened in October 2022, with additional international centers in set-up. CONCLUSIONS: The EASY-AS trial will establish whether a strategy of early aortic valve replacement in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis reduces cardiovascular mortality or heart failure hospitalization and improves other important outcomes.

A Risk Model to Predict Statin Non-Adherence Following an Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Patients at risk of statin non-adherence are often not identified during hospital admission with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: In 19,942 patients hospitalised for ACS, statin dispensing was determined from the national pharmaceutical dispensing database. A risk score for non-adherence was developed from a multivariable Poisson regression model of associations between risk factors and the statin Medication Possession Ratio (MPR) <0.8 6-18 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Statin MPR was <0.8 in 4,736 (24%) patients. MPR <0.8 was more likely in patients with a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (RR 3.79, CI 95% 3.42-4.20) and those without known CVD (RR 2.25, 95% CI 2.04-2.48) who were not taking a statin on ACS admission, compared to patients with low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol <2 mmol/L who were on a statin. For patients taking a statin on admission, higher LDL was associated with MPR <0.8 (≥3 versus <2 mmol/L, RR 1.96, 95%CI 1.72-2.24). Other independent risk factors for MPR <0.8 were age <45 years, female, disadvantaged ethnic groups, and no coronary revascularisation during the ACS admission. The risk score, which included nine variables, had a C-statistic of 0.67. MPR was <0.8 in 12% of 5,348 patients with a score ≤5 (lowest quartile) and 45% of 5,858 patients with a score ≥11 (highest quartile). CONCLUSION: A risk score generated from routinely collected data predicts statin non-adherence in patients hospitalised with ACS. This may be used to target inpatient and outpatient interventions to improve medication adherence.

First Identified Case of Fatal Fulminant Necrotizing Eosinophilic Myocarditis Following the Initial Dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2, Comirnaty): an Extremely Rare Idiosyncratic Hypersensitivity Reaction.

RATIONALE: Transient myopericarditis has been recognised as an uncommon and usually mild adverse event predominantly linked to mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines. These have mostly occurred in young males after the second dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. OBJECTIVES: Fulminant necrotising eosinophilic myocarditis triggered by a variety of drugs or vaccines is an extremely rare hypersensitivity reaction carrying a substantial mortality risk. Early recognition of this medical emergency may facilitate urgent hospital admission for investigation and treatment. Timely intervention can lead to complete cardiac recovery, but the non-specific clinical features and rarity make early diagnosis challenging. FINDINGS: The clinical and pathological observations from a case of fatal fulminant necrotising myocarditis in a 57-year-old woman, following the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, are described. Other causes have been discounted with reasonable certainty. CONCLUSION: These extremely rare vaccine-related adverse events are much less common than the risk of myocarditis and other lethal complications from COVID-19 infection. The benefits of vaccination far exceed the risks of COVID-19 infection.

Plasma proteins associated with cardiovascular death in patients with chronic coronary heart disease: A retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Circulating biomarkers are associated with the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) and its complications by reflecting pathophysiological pathways and/or organ dysfunction. We explored the associations between 157 cardiovascular (CV) and inflammatory biomarkers and CV death using proximity extension assays (PEA) in patients with chronic CHD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The derivation cohort consisted of 605 cases with CV death and 2,788 randomly selected non-cases during 3-5 years follow-up included in the STabilization of Atherosclerotic plaque By Initiation of darapLadIb TherapY (STABILITY) trial between 2008 and 2010. The replication cohort consisted of 245 cases and 1,042 non-cases during 12 years follow-up included in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study between 1997 and 2000. Biomarker levels were measured with conventional immunoassays and/or with the OLINK PEA panels CVD I and Inflammation. Associations with CV death were evaluated by Random Survival Forest (RF) and Cox regression analyses. Both cohorts had the same median age (65 years) and 20% smokers, while there were slight differences in male sex (82% and 76%), hypertension (70% and 78%), and diabetes (39% and 30%) in the respective STABILITY and LURIC cohorts. The analyses identified 18 biomarkers with confirmed independent association with CV death by Boruta analyses and statistical significance (all p < 0.0001) by Cox regression when adjusted for clinical characteristics in both cohorts. Most prognostic information was carried by N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), hazard ratio (HR for 1 standard deviation [SD] increase of the log scale of the distribution of the biomarker in the replication cohort) 2.079 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.799-2.402), and high-sensitivity troponin T (cTnT-hs) HR 1.715 (95% CI 1.491-1.973). The other proteins with independent associations were growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) HR 1.728 (95% CI 1.527-1.955), transmembrane immunoglobulin and mucin domain protein (TIM-1) HR 1.555 (95% CI 1.362-1.775), renin HR 1.501 (95% CI 1.305-1.727), osteoprotegerin (OPG) HR 1.488 (95% CI 1.297-1.708), soluble suppression of tumorigenesis 2 protein (sST2) HR 1.478 (95% CI 1.307-1.672), cystatin-C (Cys-C) HR 1.370 (95% CI 1.243-1.510), tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2 (TRAIL-R2) HR 1.205 (95% CI 1.131-1.285), carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA-125) HR 1.347 (95% CI 1.226-1.479), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) HR 1.399 (95% CI 1.255-1.561), interleukin 6 (IL-6) HR 1.478 (95% CI 1.316-1.659), hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) HR 1.259 (95% CI 1.134-1.396), spondin-1 HR 1.295 (95% CI 1.156-1.450), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) HR 1.349 (95% CI 1.237-1.472), chitinase-3 like protein 1 (CHI3L1) HR 1.284 (95% CI 1.129-1.461), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNF-R1) HR 1.486 (95% CI 1.307-1.689), and adrenomedullin (AM) HR 1.750 (95% CI 1.490-2.056). The study is limited by the differences in design, size, and length of follow-up of the 2 studies and the lack of results from coronary angiograms and follow-up of nonfatal events. CONCLUSIONS: Profiles of levels of multiple plasma proteins might be useful for the identification of different pathophysiological pathways associated with an increased risk of CV death in patients with chronic CHD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00799903.

Risk markers of incident atrial fibrillation in patients with coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: In patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We investigated the associations between clinical risk factors and biomarkers with incident AF in patients with CHD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Around 13,153 patients with optimally treated CHD included in the STabilization of Atherosclerotic plaque By Initiation of darapLadIb TherapY (STABILITY) trial with plasma samples obtained at randomization. Mean follow-up time was 3.5 years. The association between clinical risk factors and biomarkers with incident AF was estimated with Cox-regression models. Validation was performed in 1,894 patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome included in the FRISC-II trial. The median (min-max) age was 64 years (range 26-92) and 2,514 (19.1%) were women. A total of 541 patients, annual incidence rate of 1.2%, developed AF during follow-up. In multivariable models, older age, higher levels of NT-proBNP, higher body mass index (BMI), male sex, geographic regions, low physical activity, and heart failure were independently associated with increased risk of incident AF with hazard ratios ranging from 1.04 to 1.79 (P ≤ .05). NT-proBNP improved the C-index from 0.70 to 0.71. In the validation cohort, age, BMI, and NT-proBNP were associated with increased risk of incident AF with similar hazard ratios. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with optimally treated CHD, the incidence of new AF was 1.2% per year. Age, NT-proBNP as a marker of impaired cardiac function, and BMI were the strongest factors, independently and consistently associated with incident AF. Male sex and low physical activity may also contribute to the risk of AF in patients with CHD.

In patients with stable coronary heart disease, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels < 70 mg/dL and glycosylated hemoglobin A1c < 7% are associated with lower major cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: In patients with stable coronary heart disease, it is not known whether achievement of standard of care (SOC) targets in addition to evidence-based medicine (EBM) is associated with lower major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE): cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. METHODS: EBM use was recommended in the STabilisation of Atherosclerotic plaque By Initiation of darapLadIb TherapY trial. SOC targets were blood pressure (BP) <140/90 mm Hg and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) <100 mg/dL and <70 mg/dL. In patients with diabetes, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) < 7% and BP of <130/80 mm Hg were recommended. Feedback to investigators about rates of EBM and SOC was provided regularly. RESULTS: In 13,623 patients, 1-year landmark analysis assessed the association between EBM, SOC targets, and MACE during follow-up of 2.7 years (median) after adjustment in a Cox proportional hazards model. At 1 year, aspirin was prescribed in 92.5% of patients, statins in 97.2%, ß-blockers in 79.0%, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-II receptor blockers in 76.9%. MACE was lower with LDL-C < 100 mg/dL (70-99 mg/dL) compared with LDL-C ≥ 100 mg/dL (hazard ratio [HR] 0.694, 95% CI 0.594-0.811) and lower with LDL-C < 70 mg/dL compared with LDL-C < 100 mg/dL (70-99 mg/dL) (HR 0.834, 95% CI 0.708-0.983). MACE was lower with HbA1c < 7% compared with HbA1c ≥ 7% (HR 0.705, 95% CI 0.573-0.866). There was no effect of BP targets on MACE. CONCLUSIONS: MACE was lower with LDL-C < 100 mg/dL (70-99 mg/dL) and even lower with LDL-C < 70 mg/dL. MACE in patients with diabetes was lower with HbA1c < 7%. Achievement of targets is associated with improved patient outcomes.

Characterization of cardiovascular clinical events and impact of event adjudication on the treatment effect of darapladib versus placebo in patients with stable coronary heart disease: Insights from the STABILITY trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical Endpoint Classification (CEC) in clinical trials allows FOR standardized, systematic, blinded, and unbiased adjudication of investigator-reported events. We quantified the agreement rates in the STABILITY trial on 15,828 patients with stable coronary heart disease. METHODS: Investigators were instructed to report all potential events. Each reported event was reviewed independently by 2 reviewers according to prespecified processes and prespecified end point definitions. Concordance between reported and adjudicated cardiovascular (CV) events was evaluated, as well as event classification influence on final study results. RESULTS: In total, CEC reviewed 7,096 events: 1,064 deaths (696 CV deaths), 958 myocardial infarctions (MI), 433 strokes, 182 transient ischemic attacks, 2,052 coronary revascularizations, 1,407 hospitalizations for unstable angina, and 967 hospitalizations for heart failure. In total, 71.8% events were confirmed by CEC. Concordance was high (>80%) for cause of death and nonfatal MI and lower for hospitalization for unstable angina (25%) and heart failure (50%). For the primary outcome (composite of CV death, MI, and stroke), investigators reported 2,086 events with 82.5% confirmed by CEC. The STABILITY trial treatment effect of darapladib versus placebo on the primary outcome was consistent using investigator-reported events (hazard ratio 0.96 [95% CI 0.87-1.06]) or adjudicated events (hazard ratio 0.94 [95% CI 0.85-1.03]). CONCLUSIONS: The primary outcome results of the STABILITY trial were consistent whether using investigator-reported or CEC-adjudicated events. The proportion of investigator-reported events confirmed by CEC varied by type of event. These results should help improve event identification in clinical trials to optimize ascertainment and adjudication.

Understanding medicines with a propensity to increase the risk of heart failure: Combining existing knowledge with targeted population assessment.

PURPOSE: Existing knowledge of medicines that increase the risk of an adverse event may be corroborated and augmented by population studies specifically assessing the risk associated with the concurrent use of these medicines and use by patients with existing comorbidity. An American Heart Association review recently identified a variety of medicines that may cause or exacerbate heart failure (HF), many with evidence from limited evaluation of population data. We assessed the risk of first-time HF associated with the use of 50 of these medicines by New Zealand's primary care population. METHODS: Case-control study utilising national pharmaceutical use and hospital admissions data 2007-2015; 22,989 patients with first-time HF 2008-2015 were matched with 114 498 control patients. The primary outcome was first-time HF and its association with medicine exposure in the prior 90 days, estimated using conditional logistic regression. We also assessed the risk associated with new use of medicines in the prior month, concurrent use, and in patients with existing comorbidity. RESULTS: Eleven medicines were significantly associated with HF with several other infrequently used medicines providing signals of increased risk. A high risk was associated with the use of salbutamol (adjusted odds ratio 2.63; 95% CI, 2.48-2.78), clozapine (2.70; 2.46-4.98), diltiazem (1.52; 1.44-1.60), indomethacin (2.51; 1.54-4.10), pioglitazone (1.50; 1.16-1.95), and antifungal medicines. New use of medicines and use of medicine combinations increased this risk in many cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides further evidence to inform cautious use of these medicines in patients with HF or at risk of developing HF.

Visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable coronary heart disease. Insights from the STABILITY trial.

AIMS: To study the relation between visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular risk in patients with stable coronary heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 15 828 patients from the STABILITY trial (darapladib vs. placebo in patients with established coronary heart disease), BP variability was assessed by the standard deviation (SD) of systolic BP, the SD of diastolic BP, maximum BP, and minimum BP, from 5 measurements (baseline and months 1, 3, 6, and 12) during the first year after randomisation. Mean (SD) average BP during the first year of study was 131.0 (13.7) mmHg over 78.3 (8.3) mmHg. Mean (SD) of the visit-to-visit SD was 9.8 (4.8) mmHg for systolic and 6.3 (3.0) mmHg for diastolic BP. During the subsequent median follow-up of 2.6 years, 1010 patients met the primary endpoint, a composite of time to cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. In Cox regression models adjusted for average BP during first year of study, baseline vascular disease, treatment, renal function and cardiovascular risk factors, the primary endpoint was associated with SD of systolic BP (hazard ratio for highest vs. lowest tertile, 1.30, 95% CI 1.10-1.53, P = 0.007), and with SD of diastolic BP (hazard ratio for highest vs. lowest tertile, 1.38, 95% CI 1.18-1.62, P < 0.001). Peaks and troughs in BP were also independently associated with adverse events. CONCLUSION: In patients with stable coronary heart disease, higher visit-to-visit variabilities of both systolic and diastolic BP are strong predictors of increased risk of cardiovascular events, independently of mean BP.

Growth Differentiation Factor 15 Predicts All-Cause Morbidity and Mortality in Stable Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Higher growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) concentrations are associated with cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV morbidity and mortality. However, information on associations between GDF-15 and the risk of specific CV and non-CV events in stable coronary heart disease (CHD) patients is limited. METHODS: In 14 577 patients with stable CHD participating in the Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy Trial (STABILITY), GDF-15 and other prognostic biomarkers (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T, cystatin C, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were measured. In adjusted Cox regression models, the associations between GDF-15 and the composite CV end point [CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke], as well as other CV and non-CV events, were assessed. RESULTS: The median concentration (interquartile range) of GDF-15 at baseline was 1253 (915-1827) ng/L. The hazard ratio for the composite end point for the highest compared to the lowest quartile of GDF-15 was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.5-2.2); for CV death, 2.63 (1.9-3.6); for sudden death, 3.06 (1.9-4.8); for heart failure (HF) death, 4.3 (1.3-14); for cancer death, 2.5 (1.3-4.7); for hospitalization for HF, 5.8 (3.2-10); for MI 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.9); and for stroke, 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1-2.8). After adjustment for other prognostic biomarkers, GDF-15 remained significantly associated with all outcomes except for MI. CONCLUSIONS: In stable CHD, GDF-15 was independently associated with CV, non-CV, and cancer mortality, as well as with MI and stroke. When also adjusting for other prognostic biomarkers, the associations to all fatal and nonfatal events were maintained except for MI. Information on GDF-15, therefore, might be helpful when assessing the risk of adverse outcomes in patients with stable CHD. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00799903.

Dietary patterns and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in a global study of high-risk patients with stable coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether dietary pattern assessed by a simple self-administered food frequency questionnaire is associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in high-risk patients with stable coronary artery disease. BACKGROUND: A Mediterranean dietary pattern has been associated with lower cardiovascular (CV) mortality. It is less certain whether foods common in western diets are associated with CV risk. METHODS: At baseline, 15 482 (97.8%) patients (mean age 67 ± 9 years) with stable coronary heart disease from 39 countries who participated in the Stabilisation of atherosclerotic plaque by initiation of darapladib therapy (STABILITY) trial completed a life style questionnaire which included questions on common foods. A Mediterranean diet score (MDS) was calculated for increasing consumption of whole grains, fruits, vegetables, legumes, fish, and alcohol, and for less meat, and a 'Western diet score' (WDS) for increasing consumption of refined grains, sweets and deserts, sugared drinks, and deep fried foods. A multi-variable Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations between MDS or WDS and MACE, defined as CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 3.7 years MACE occurred in 7.3% of 2885 subjects with an MDS ≥15, 10.5% of 4018 subjects with an MDS of 13-14, and 10.8% of 8579 subjects with an MDS ≤12. A one unit increase in MDS >12 was associated with lower MACE after adjusting for all covariates (+1 category HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91, 0.98, P = 0.002). There was no association between WDS (adjusted model +1 category HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97, 1.01) and MACE. CONCLUSION: Greater consumption of healthy foods may be more important for secondary prevention of coronary artery disease than avoidance of less healthy foods typical of Western diets.

The ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) stroke risk score: a biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which is currently estimated by clinical characteristics. The cardiac biomarkers N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin high-sensitivity (cTn-hs) are independently associated with risk of stroke in AF. Our objective was to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve prognostication of stroke in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: A new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 701 patients with AF and biomarkers levels determined at baseline, median follow-up of 1.9 years. Biomarkers and clinical variables significantly contributing to predicting stroke or systemic embolism were assessed by Cox-regression and each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. External validation was performed in 1400 patients with AF, median follow-up of 3.4 years. The most important predictors were prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, NT-proBNP, cTn-hs, and age, which were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) stroke risk score. The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than the widely used CHA2DS2-VASc score in both the derivation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.62, P < 0.001) and the external validation cohort (0.66 vs. 0.58, P < 0.001). Moreover, the ABC-stroke score consistently provided higher c-indices in several important subgroups. CONCLUSION: A novel biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in AF was successfully developed and internally validated in a large cohort of patients with AF and further externally validated in an independent AF cohort. The ABC-stroke score performed better than the presently used clinically based risk score and may provide improved decision support in AF. CLINICALTRIALS GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT00412984, NCT00799903.

Living longer by sitting less and moving more.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Regular exercise, physical fitness and sedentary behaviours are each known to be associated with cardiovascular and total mortality. This review evaluates recent research on these associations and its implications for guidelines on physical activity. RECENT FINDINGS: In several large cohort studies, modest levels of exercise, much less than recommended in current guidelines, were associated with lower mortality. Avoiding prolonged sitting has also been associated with lower mortality risk. Most research suggests graded decreases in long-term mortality with an increase in usual physical activity and fitness. However, at very high exercise levels, these benefits may be attenuated, particularly in patients with known coronary heart disease. SUMMARY: In sedentary persons, a modest increase in physical activity and avoiding prolonged sitting are likely to have important health benefits. Further research is needed to determine the most effective strategies for increasing physical activity.

Real-time aortic pulse wave velocity measurement during exercise stress testing.

BACKGROUND: Pulse wave velocity (PWV), a measure of arterial stiffness, has been demonstrated to be an independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. This can be derived non-invasively using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). Changes in PWV during exercise may reveal further information on vascular pathology. However, most known CMR methods for quantifying PWV are currently unsuitable for exercise stress testing. METHODS: A velocity-sensitive real-time acquisition and evaluation (RACE) pulse sequence was adapted to provide interleaved acquisition of two locations in the descending aorta (at the level of the pulmonary artery bifurcation and above the renal arteries) at 7.8 ms temporal resolution. An automated method was used to calculate the foot-to-foot transit time of the velocity pulse wave. The RACE method was validated against a standard gated phase contrast (STD) method in flexible tube phantoms using a pulsatile flow pump. The method was applied in 50 healthy volunteers (28 males) aged 22-75 years using a MR-compatible cycle ergometer to achieve moderate work rate (38 ± 22 W, with a 31 ± 12 bpm increase in heart rate) in the supine position. Central pulse pressures were estimated using a MR-compatible brachial device. Scan-rescan reproducibility was evaluated in nine volunteers. RESULTS: Phantom PWV was 22 m/s (STD) vs. 26 ± 5 m/s (RACE) for a butyl rubber tube, and 5.5 vs. 6.1 ± 0.3 m/s for a latex rubber tube. In healthy volunteers PWV increased with age at both rest (R(2) = 0.31 p < 0.001) and exercise (R(2) = 0.40, p < 0.001). PWV was significantly increased at exercise relative to rest (0.71 ± 2.2 m/s, p = 0.04). Scan-rescan reproducibility at rest was -0.21 ± 0.68 m/s (n = 9). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the validity of CMR in the evaluation of PWV during exercise in healthy subjects. The results support the feasibility of using this method in evaluating of patients with systemic aortic disease.

Two optimization strategies of multi-stage design in clinical proteomic studies.

We evaluated statistical approaches to facilitate and improve multi-stage designs for clinical proteomic studies which plan to transit from laboratory discovery to clinical utility. To find the design with the greatest expected number of true discoveries under constraints on cost and false discovery, the operating characteristics of the multi-stage study were optimized as a function of sample sizes and nominal type-I error rates at each stage. A nested simulated annealing algorithm was used to find the best solution in the bounded spaces constructed by multiple design parameters. This approach is demonstrated to be feasible and lead to efficient designs. The use of biological grouping information in the study design was also investigated using synthetic datasets based on a cardiac proteomic study, and an actual dataset from a clinical immunology proteomic study. When different protein patterns presented, performance improved when the grouping was informative, with little loss in performance when the grouping was uninformative.

The effects of changing dairy intake on trans and saturated fatty acid levels- results from a randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Dairy food is an important natural source of saturated and trans fatty acids in the human diet. This study evaluates the effect of dietary advice to change dairy food intake on plasma fatty acid levels known to be present in milk in healthy volunteers. METHODS: Twenty one samples of whole fat dairy milk were analyzed for fatty acids levels. Changes in levels of plasma phospholipid levels were evaluated in 180 healthy volunteers randomized to increase, not change or reduce dairy intake for one month. Fatty acids were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and levels are normalized to d-4 alanine. RESULTS: The long chain fatty acids palmitic (13.4%), stearic (16.7%) and myristic (18.9%) acid were most common saturated fats in milk. Four trans fatty acids constituted 3.7% of the total milk fat content. Increased dairy food intake by 3.0 (± 1.2) serves/ day for 1 month was associated with small increases in plasma levels of myristic (+0.05, 95% confidence level-0.08 to 0.13, p = 0.07), pentadecanoic (+0.014, 95% confidence level -0.016 to 0.048, p = 0.02) and margaric acid (+0.02, -0.03 to 0.05, p = 0.03). There was no significant change in plasma levels of 4 saturated, 4 trans and 10 unsaturated fatty acids. Decreasing dairy food intake by 2.5 (± 1.2) serves per day was not associated with change in levels of any plasma fatty acid levels. CONCLUSION: Dietary advice to change dairy food has a minor effect on plasma fatty acid levels. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12612000574842.

Comparison of four risk scores for contemporary isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' (STS) Score have been the most widely used risk scores for cardiac surgery. The revised EuroSCORE II and the AusSCORE, based on an Australasian population, were recently developed. We compared the prognostic utility of these four scores for mortality as well as morbidity in patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: The scores were retrospectively calculated for isolated CABG patients at Auckland City Hospital during July 2010-June 2012. Discrimination and calibration of outcomes were assessed. RESULTS: 818 patients were followed for 1.6+/-0.6 years. Mortality at 30 days was 1.6% and 2.9% on follow up. Median predicted 30 day mortality (Interquartile range) for EuroSCORE I were 2.8% (1.6%, 5.2%), EuroSCORE II 1.6% (1.0%, 2.8%), STS Score 2.3% (1.3%, 4.5%) and AusSCORE 0.5% (0.2%, 1.1%). C-statistics and Hosmer-Lemeshow test p-values for these scores for 30-day mortality were Euro score I 0.675 (95%CI 0.531-0.819)/0.061, EuroSCORE II 0.642 (0.503-0.780)/0.150, STS Score 0.641 (0.507-0.775)/0.243 and AusSCORE 0.661 (0.516-0.807)/0.420. Only EuroSCORE I and STS scores were significant for predicting mortality at follow-up (c=0.639 and 0.666). All scores predicted composite morbidity. C-statistics were EuroSCORE I 0.678, EuroSCORE II 0.634, STS score 0.584 and AusSCORE 0.645. CONCLUSION: EuroSCORE II, STS Score and AusSCORE had slightly improved calibration but similar discrimination for 30-day mortality compared to EuroSCORE I. Revision of risk models to fit contemporary surgical outcomes is important, but there may only be modest room for improvement in discrimination.

Acute idiopathic pericarditis during a national lockdown to prevent transmission of SARS-COVID-19.

Background: Idiopathic acute pericarditis is often presumed to have a viral cause. We hypothesized that if acute viral infection was the cause, the incidence of acute 'idiopathic' pericarditis would decrease during a public health lockdown introduced to prevent the spread of SARS-COVID-19 in New Zealand when acute viral infections decreased by 75% to 99%. Methods: Hospitalization for acute 'idiopathic' pericarditis during 5 months of the national public health lockdown were compared to 54 months before the COVID-19 pandemic from administrative data. Results: The hospitalization rate for acute pericarditis was similar before (n = 1364, 24.8 cases/30 days) compared to during the public health lockdown (n = 132, 25.8 cases/30 days), +4% 95 % confidence interval -25 % to +30 % (P = 0.67). Conclusion: These observations do not support the hypothesis that acute viral infection is the cause for most cases of acute idiopathic pericarditis.