Accuracy of State-Level Surveillance during Emerging Outbreaks of Respiratory Viruses: A Model-Based Assessment.

It is long perceived that the more data collection, the more knowledge emerges about the real disease progression. During emergencies like the H1N1 and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemics, public health surveillance requested increased testing to address the exacerbated demand. However, it is currently unknown how accurately surveillance portrays disease progression through incidence and confirmed case trends. State surveillance, unlike commercial testing, can process specimens based on the upcoming demand (e.g., with testing restrictions). Hence, proper assessment of accuracy may lead to improvements for a robust infrastructure. Using the H1N1 pandemic experience, we developed a simulation that models the true unobserved influenza incidence trend in the State of Michigan, as well as trends observed at different data collection points of the surveillance system. We calculated the growth rate, or speed at which each trend increases during the pandemic growth phase, and we performed statistical experiments to assess the biases (or differences) between growth rates of unobserved and observed trends. We highlight the following results: 1) emergency-driven high-risk perception increases reporting, which leads to reduction of biases in the growth rates; 2) the best predicted growth rates are those estimated from the trend of specimens submitted to the surveillance point that receives reports from a variety of health care providers; and 3) under several criteria to queue specimens for viral subtyping with limited capacity, the best-performing criterion was to queue first-come, first-serve restricted to specimens with higher hospitalization risk. Under this criterion, the lab released capacity to subtype specimens for each day in the trend, which reduced the growth rate bias the most compared to other queuing criteria. Future research should investigate additional restrictions to the queue.

Multistate outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes infection linked to delicatessen turkey meat.

BACKGROUND: Despite a decreasing incidence of listeriosis in the United States, molecular subtyping has increased the number of recognized outbreaks. In September 2000, the New York City Department of Health identified a cluster of infections caused by Listeria monocytogenes isolates with identical molecular subtypes by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and ribotyping. METHODS: To determine the magnitude of the outbreak and identify risk factors for infection, we notified state health departments and conducted a case-control study. A case was defined as a patient or mother-infant pair infected with Listeria monocytogenes whose isolate yielded the outbreak PFGE pattern. Controls were patients infected with Listeria monocytogenes whose isolate yielded a different PFGE pattern. Patients were asked about food and drink consumed during the 30 days before the onset of illness. RESULTS: Between May and December 2000, there were 30 clinical isolates of Listeria monocytogenes with identical PFGE patterns identified in 11 US states. Cases of infection caused by these isolates were associated with 4 deaths and 3 miscarriages. A case-control study implicated sliced processed turkey from a delicatessen (Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio, 8.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-43.3). A traceback investigation identified a single processing plant as the likely source of the outbreak, and the company voluntarily recalled 16 million pounds of processed meat. The same plant had been identified in a Listeria contamination event that had occurred more than a decade previously. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of persistent L. monocytogenes contamination in food processing plants presents a critical challenge to food safety professionals.

Susceptibility to antimicrobial agents among bovine mastitis pathogens isolated from North American dairy cattle, 2002-2010.

Approximately 8,000 isolates of Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Streptococcus uberis, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli, isolated by 25 veterinary laboratories across North America between 2002 and 2010, were tested for in vitro susceptibility to beta-lactam, macrolide, and lincosamide drugs. The minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of the beta-lactam drugs remained low against most of the Gram-positive strains tested, and no substantial changes in the MIC distributions were seen over time. Of the beta-lactam antimicrobial agents tested, only ceftiofur showed good in vitro activity against E. coli. The MICs of the macrolides and lincosamides also remained low against Gram-positive mastitis pathogens. While the MIC values given by 50% of isolates (MIC50) for erythromycin and pirlimycin and the streptococci were all low (≤0.5 µg/ml), the MIC values given by 90% of isolates (MIC90) were higher and more variable, but with no apparent increase over time. Staphylococcus aureus showed little change in erythromycin susceptibility over time, but there may be a small, numerical increase in pirlimycin MIC50 and MIC90 values. Overall, the results suggest that mastitis pathogens in the United States and Canada have not shown any substantial changes in the in vitro susceptibility to beta-lactam, macrolide, and lincosamide drugs tested over the 9 years of the study.

A ten-year (2000-2009) study of antimicrobial susceptibility of bacteria that cause bovine respiratory disease complex--Mannheimia haemolytica, Pasteurella multocida, and Histophilus somni--in the United States and Canada.

Bovine isolates of Mannheimia haemolytica, Pasteurella multocida, and Histophilus somni, collected from 2000 to 2009, were tested for in vitro susceptibility to ceftiofur, penicillin, danofloxacin, enrofloxacin, florfenicol, tetracycline, tilmicosin, and tulathromycin. Ceftiofur remained very active against all isolates. Penicillin retained good activity against P. multocida and H. somni isolates with no appreciable changes in susceptibility or minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) distributions with time. While there was no obvious trend, the percent of M. haemolytica that were susceptible to penicillin ranged from 40.9% to 66.7%. Danofloxacin MIC(50) and MIC(90) values for M. haemolytica and P. multocida did not change beyond a single dilution over the 6 years it was included in the testing panel. The MIC(90) for H. somni increased beyond 1 dilution. Enrofloxacin MIC(50) values for the 3 pathogens also did not change over time, unlike the MIC(90) values, which increased by at least 4-doubling dilutions. Ninety percent or more of M. haemolytica and H. somni isolates were susceptible to florfenicol, while susceptibility among P. multocida was 79% or greater. Less than 50% of the isolates tested as susceptible to tetracycline in many of the years. All 3 organisms showed declines in tilmicosin and tulathromycin MIC(50) and MIC(90) values over the years in which they were tested.

Impact of the thimerosal controversy on hepatitis B vaccine coverage of infants born to women of unknown hepatitis B surface antigen status in Michigan.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatitis B vaccine is recommended for all infants, and the series may be started during the delivery admission. For infants who are born either to women who are positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) or to women whose HBsAg status is unknown, vaccination should be started within 12 hours of birth to prevent perinatal and early childhood hepatitis B virus infection. Because of concerns about mercury exposures from vaccines that contain thimerosal, the United States Public Health Service (USPHS) and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) recommended in July 1999 that the first dose of hepatitis B vaccine be deferred until 2-6 months of age but only for infants who are born to HBsAg-negative women. To assess the impact on birth-dose vaccine coverage for infants who are born to women with unknown HBsAg status, we measured coverage before and after July 1999. METHODS: A sample of Michigan infants who were born to women whose HBsAg status was either unknown or missing were identified by reviewing newborn screening cards for infants who were born during 1) March-April 1999 (before recommendation changes [T1]); 2) July 15-September 15, 1999 (immediately after recommendation changes [T2]); and 3) March-April 2000 (6 months after resumption of pre-1999 practices were recommended [T3]). We verified maternal HBsAg screening and newborn hepatitis B vaccination by reviewing infant and maternal hospital records. RESULTS: Of 1201 infants who were born to women whose HBsAg status was indicated as unknown or missing on the newborn screening card during the 3 time periods, 216 (18%) were born to women whose status was truly unknown at the time of delivery, as determined by medical record review. During T1, 53% of these 216 infants received hepatitis B vaccine before hospital discharge, compared with 7% of infants who were born during T2 and 57% of infants who were born during T3. During T1, 19% of these infants received hepatitis B vaccine within 12 hours of birth compared with 1% of infants who were born during T2 and 14% of infants who were born during T3. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis B vaccine birth-dose coverage for infants who were born to women whose HBsAg status was unknown at the time of delivery was already low in Michigan before the July 1999 USPHS/AAP Joint Statement but decreased significantly during the 2 months after the USPHS/AAP Joint Statement. Abrupt changes in established vaccination recommendations for lower risk children may lead to decreased coverage among higher risk children. Increases in hepatitis B vaccine coverage at birth are necessary to reduce the risk of perinatal infection for infants who are born to women with unknown HBsAg status.