Population dynamic regulators in an empirical predator-prey system.

Capelin (Mallotus villosus) is a short-lived (1-4 years) fish species, that plays a crucial role by dominating the intermediate trophic level in the Barents Sea. Several episodes of extreme biomass decline (collapse) have been observed during the last three decades. We postulate that these collapses might be regulated by food availability (bottom-up effect) and/or by time discrepancy between capelin feeding and abundance of its prey (match-mismatch hypothesis). This paper investigates our postulate using a model consisting of a set of coupled differential equations to describe the predator-prey system, with a single delay term, τ, in description of the predator dynamics. We derive theoretical conditions on τ, as well as determine how changes in these conditions define different stability regimes of the system. Unconstrained optimization is used to calculate optimal model parameters by fitting the predator-prey model to empirical data. The optimization results are combined with those from the theoretical analysis, to make inference about the empirical system stability. Our results show that Hopf bifurcation occurs in the predatory-prey system when τ exceeds a theoretically derived value τ∗>0. This value represents the critical time for prey availability in advance of the optimal predator growth period.Set into an ecological context, our findings provide mathematical evidence for validity of the match-mismatch hypothesis and a bottom-up effect for capelin.

Analysing migrations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua in the north-east Atlantic Ocean: then, now and the future.

The application of data storage tags bears the potential for a quantum leap in the research on fish migrations, because not only first-capture and recapture positions are known, but at least theoretically, the migration path during the period at large can be reconstructed. Position, however, cannot be measured directly but has to be estimated using the available data on light, temperature, pressure and salinity. The reconstructed locations based on advanced estimation techniques have been termed geolocations. Examples are discussed which illustrate the applicability of geolocations in individual path descriptions, separation of reproductively isolated populations, timing and areas of spawning, tidal transport and use of protected areas. The examples are based on archival tag data from the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea and Faroese and Icelandic Waters. Besides presenting the state-of-the-art geolocations for cod Gadus morhua in the north-east Atlantic Ocean, the major aim of this review is to raise awareness of gaps in knowledge and to identify ideas for new research.