Survival and local recruitment are driven by environmental carry-over effects from the wintering area in a migratory seabird.

We estimated annual apparent survival rates, as well as local recruitment rates in different age groups and for different breeding status in the common tern Sterna hirundo using mark-recapture analysis on a long-term individual-based dataset from a breeding colony in Germany. Strong inter-annual variability in survival rates became apparent, especially in prospectors. Local recruitment also varied strongly between years and age groups. To explain these fluctuations, we linked survival and recruitment estimates to several environmental covariates expected to be limiting during the wintering period and migration, including the global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation, fish abundance indices, and marine primary productivity in the West African wintering area. Contrary to expectations, global indices did not seem to be linked strongly to vital rates. Results showed that primary productivity had the strongest effect on annual survival, especially in young and inexperienced individuals. Primary productivity in the wintering area was also strongly associated with the probability of recruitment in the following breeding season, indicating that conditions during winter can have carry-over effects on the life cycle of individuals.

Immigrants are attracted by local pre-breeders and recruits in a seabird colony.

Immigration is a major demographic factor shaping population dynamics. However, due to methodological difficulties, the extent of immigration and factors affecting immigration are insufficiently studied. This is also true for seabird colonies. We estimated annual immigration based on a long-term study of a colony of common terns Sterna hirundo marked with transponders, using a Bayesian integrated population model that links colony size and productivity with individual life histories. Strong annual fluctuations in the number of immigrants were found. To identify whether colony-specific covariates influenced immigration, we related the number of immigrants to various proxy variables for breeding site quality, specifically colony size, productivity, number of local subadults and local recruits. Numbers of local recruits and local subadults showed strong positive correlations with number of immigrants. We found that variation in immigration rate had strongly contributed to variation in colony growth rate, more so than variation in local recruitment or adult survival. Collectively, results suggest that immigration strongly affects colony growth rate, that the driving force behind immigration is natal dispersal and that immigrants were attracted by local recruits.

Migratory restlessness in captive individuals predicts actual departure in the wild.

In captivity, migratory birds show increased activity during the time that they would normally migrate. The phenology and intensity of such 'migratory restlessness' has been shown to mirror species- and population-specific migration patterns observed in the wild and has consequently been used as a proxy for the motivation to migrate. Many studies doing so, however, were aiming to explain among-individual variation in migratory behaviour or traits, and not species- or population-specific traits. These studies thus assumed that, also at the level of the individual, migratory restlessness is an accurate proxy for the motivation to migrate. We tested this assumption for the first time and found that it holds; individuals showing very little migratory restlessness remained at stopover for longer than one night, whereas most individuals showing more restlessness departed sooner. This finding validates the use of migratory restlessness as a proxy for the motivation to migrate, thereby justifying the conclusions made in a large body of research on avian migration.