Predicting the Outcome of the Buckwheat Oral Challenge Test: A First Evaluation Assuming a Single Serving of Boiled Buckwheat Noodles.

Summary: Background. Global increase in buckwheat consumption has led to a surge in buckwheat allergy reports. However, studies scrutinizing the predictive accuracy of buckwheat-specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibody levels in correlation with symptom manifestation remain limited. A critical concern is the discrepancy between the total buckwheat amount featured in prior studies and the quantity consumed per occasion. We aimed to determine open Oral Food Challenge (OFC) positivity rates with buckwheat, using a single serving of boiled buckwheat noodles, and assess the predictability of positive responses using buckwheat-specific IgE levels. Methods. Patients aged 20 years or younger, suspected of buckwheat allergy, were subjected to an OFC involving consumption of 100 g (4800 mg of protein) of boiled buckwheat noodles for those under six years, and 200 g (9600 mg of protein) for those six years or older. The predictive accuracy of the OFC, corresponding with buckwheat-specific IgE antibody levels, was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results. Our study involved 80 patients who undertook a buckwheat OFC. Among these, 14 (17.5%) tested positive for a buckwheat allergy, with 3 (3.8%) developing anaphylaxis. The comparative analysis of buckwheat-specific IgE antibody levels did not offer a reliable predictive measure for OFC outcomes. However, a past history of symptom manifestation following buckwheat consumption was significantly correlated with a positive OFC. Conclusions. Forecasting OFC outcomes based on buckwheat-specific IgE antibody levels poses a challenge, even when taking into account the total quantity of buckwheat that can be consumed in a single occasion.

Ground-water radon anomaly before the kobe earthquake in Japan.

Radon concentration in ground water increased for several months before the 1995 southern Hyogo Prefecture (Kobe) earthquake on 17 January 1995. From late October 1994, the beginning of the observation, to the end of December 1994, radon concentration increased about fourfold. On 8 January, 9 days before the earthquake, the radon concentration reached a peak of more than 10 times that at the beginning of the observation, before starting to decrease. These radon changes are likely to be precursory phenomena of the disastrous earthquake.

Neutral theory of molecular evolution.

DNA sequence data are generally interpreted as favouring Kimura's neutral theory but not without dissent and often with a great deal of controversy with respect to molecular clocks, DNA polymorphism, adaptive evolution, and gene genealogy. Although the theory serves as a guiding principle, many issues concerning mutation, recombination, and selection remain unsettled. Of particular importance is the need for more knowledge about the function and structure of molecules.

Thermal and impact histories of 25143 Itokawa recorded in Hayabusa particles.

Understanding the origin and evolution of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) is an issue of scientific interest and practical importance because NEAs are potentially hazardous to the Earth. However, when and how NEAs formed and their evolutionary history remain enigmas. Here, we report the U-Pb systematics of Itokawa particles for the first time. Ion microprobe analyses of seven phosphate grains from a single particle provide an isochron age of 4.64 ± 0.18 billion years (1σ). This ancient phosphate age is thought to represent the thermal metamorphism of Itokawa's parent body, which is identical to that of typical LL chondrites. In addition, the incorporation of other particles suggests that a significant shock event might have occurred 1.51 ± 0.85 billion years ago (1σ), which is significantly different from the shock ages of 4.2 billion years of the majority of shocked LL chondrites and similar to that of the Chelyabinsk meteorite. Combining these data with recent Ar-Ar studies on particles from a different landing site, we conclude that a globally intense impact, possibly a catastrophic event, occurred ca. 1.4 Ga ago. This conclusion enables us to establish constraints on the timescale of asteroid disruption frequency, the validity of the crater chronology and the mean lifetime of small NEAs.

Comparative analysis of human masculinity.

To study rapidly evolving male specific Y (MSY) genes we retrieved and analyzed nine such genes. VCY, HSFY and RBMY were found to have functional X gametologs, but the rest did not. Using chimpanzee orthologs for XKRY, CDY, HSFY, PRY, and TSPY, the average silent substitution is estimated as 0.017 +/- 0.006/site and the substitution rate is 1.42 x 10(-9)/site/year. Except for VCY, all other loci possess two or more pseudogenes on the Y chromosome. Sequence differences from functional genes show that BPY2, DAZ, XKRY, and RBMY each have one pseudogene for each one that is human specific, while others were generated well before the human-chimpanzee split, by means of duplication, retro-transposition or translocation. Some functional MSY gene duplication of VCY, CDY and HSFY, as well as X-linked VCX and HSFX duplication, occurred in the lineage leading to humans; these duplicates have accumulated nucleotide substitutions that permit their identification.

On the overdispersed molecular clock.

Rates of molecular evolution at some loci are more irregular than described by simple Poisson processes. Three situations under which molecular evolution would not follow simple Poisson processes are reevaluated from the viewpoint of the neutrality hypothesis: concomitant or multiple substitutions in a gene, fluctuating substitution rates in time caused by coupled effects of deleterious mutations and bottlenecks, and changes in the degree of selective constraints against a gene (neutral space) caused by successive substitutions. The common underlying assumption that these causes are lineage nonspecific excludes the case where mutation rates themselves change systematically among lineages or taxonomic groups, and severely limits the extent of variation in the number of substitutions among lineages. Even under this stringent condition, however, the third hypothesis, the fluctuating neutral space model, can generate fairly large variation. This is described by a time-dependent renewal process, which does not exhibit any episodic nature of molecular evolution. It is argued that the observed elevated variances in the number of nucleotide or amino acid substitutions do not immediately call for positive Darwinian selection in molecular evolution.

Genetic Variability and Rate of Gene Substitution in a Finite Population under Mutation and Fluctuating Selection.

By using a numerical method of solving stochastic difference equations, the level of genetic variability maintained in a finite population and the rate of gene substitution under several models of fluctuating selection intensities were studied. It is shown that mutation and random genetic drift both play an important role in determining genetic variability and the rate of gene substitution. Compared with the case of neutral mutations, the fluctuation of selection intensity caused by temporal and spatial heterogeneity of environments generally increases the rate of gene substitution, but the level of genetic variability may be increased or decreased, depending upon the model and the parameters used. Although such a type of selection per se can not be ruled out, when mutation is taken into account, it is difficult to explain both the observed amount of genetic variability and the rough constancy of evolutionary rate within a framework of fluctuating selection models.

Genealogy of neutral genes and spreading of selected mutations in a geographically structured population.

In a geographically structured population, the interplay among gene migration, genetic drift and natural selection raises intriguing evolutionary problems, but the rigorous mathematical treatment is often very difficult. Therefore several approximate formulas were developed concerning the coalescence process of neutral genes and the fixation process of selected mutations in an island model, and their accuracy was examined by computer simulation. When migration is limited, the coalescence (or divergence) time for sampled neutral genes can be described by the convolution of exponential functions, as in a panmictic population, but it is determined mainly by migration rate and the number of demes from which the sample is taken. This time can be much longer than that in a panmictic population with the same number of breeding individuals. For a selected mutation, the spreading over the entire population was formulated as a birth and death process, in which the fixation probability within a deme plays a key role. With limited amounts of migration, even advantageous mutations take a large number of generations to spread. Furthermore, it is likely that these mutations which are temporarily fixed in some demes may be swamped out again by non-mutant immigrants from other demes unless selection is strong enough. These results are potentially useful for testing quantitatively various hypotheses that have been proposed for the origin of modern human populations.

Gene genealogy in three related populations: consistency probability between gene and population trees.

A genealogical relationship among genes at a locus (gene tree) sampled from three related populations was examined with special reference to population relatedness (population tree). A phylogenetically informative event in a gene tree constructed from nucleotide differences consists of interspecific coalescences of genes in each of which two genes sampled from different populations are descended from a common ancestor. The consistency probability between gene and population trees in which they are topologically identical was formulated in terms of interspecific coalescences. It was found that the consistency probability thus derived substantially increases as the sample size of genes increases, unless the divergence time of populations is very long compared to population sizes. Hence, there are cases where large samples at a locus are very useful in inferring a population tree.

Gene identity and genetic differentiation of populations in the finite island model.

A formula for the variance of gene identity (homozygosity) was derived for the case of neutral mutations using diffusion approximations for the changes of gene frequencies in a subdivided population. It is shown that when gene flow is extremely small, the variance of gene identity for the entire population at equilibrium is smaller than that of the panmictic population with the same mean gene identity. On the other hand, although a large amount of gene flow makes a subdivided population equivalent to a panmictic population, there is an intermediate range of gene flow in which population subdivision can increase the variance. This increase results from the increased variance between colonies. In such a case, each colony has a predominant allele, but the predominant type may differ from colony to colony. The formula for obtaining the variance allows us to study such statistics as the coefficient of gene differentiation and the correlation of heterozygosity. Computer simulations were conducted to study the distribution of gene identity as well as to check the validity of the analytical formulas. Effects of selection were also studied by simulations.

A model of evolutionary base substitutions and its application with special reference to rapid change of pseudogenes.

A model of evolutionary base substitutions that can incorporate different substitutional rates between the four bases and that takes into account unequal composition of bases in DNA sequences is proposed. Using this model, we derived formulae that enable us to estimate the evolutionary distances in terms of the number of nucleotide substitutions through comparative studies of nucleotide sequences. In order to check the validity of various formulae, Monte Carlo experiments were performed. These formulae were applied to analyze data on DNA sequences from diverse organisms. Particular attention was paid to problems concerning a globin pseudogene in the mouse and the time of its origin through duplication. We obtained a result suggesting that the evolutionary rates of substitution in the first and second codon positions of the pseudogene were roughly 10 times faster than those in the normal globin genes; whereas, the rate in the third position remained almost unchanged. Application of our formulae to histone genes H2B and H3 of the sea urchin showed that, in each of these genes, the rate in the third codon position is tremendously higher than that in the second position. All of these observations can easily and consistently be interpreted by the neutral theory of molecular evolution.

Allelic genealogy under overdominant and frequency-dependent selection and polymorphism of major histocompatibility complex loci.

To explain the long-term persistence of polymorphic alleles (trans-specific polymorphism) at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) loci in rodents and primates, a computer simulation study was conducted about the coalescence time of different alleles sampled under various forms of selection. At the same time, average heterozygosity, the number of alleles in a sample, and the rate of codon substitution were examined to explain the mechanism of maintenance of polymorphism at the MHC loci. The results obtained are as follows. (1) The coalescence time for neutral alleles is too short to explain the trans-specific polymorphism at the MHC loci. (2) Under overdominant selection, the coalescence time can be tens of millions of years, depending on the parameter values used. The average heterozygosity and the number of alleles observed are also high enough to explain MHC polymorphism. (3) The pathogen adaptation model proposed by Snell is incapable of explaining MHC polymorphism, since the coalescence time for this model is too short and the expected heterozygosity and the expected number of alleles are too small. (4) From the mathematical point of view, the minority advantage model of frequency-dependent selection is capable of explaining a high degree of polymorphism and trans-specific polymorphism. (5) The molecular mimicry hypothesis also gives a sufficiently long coalescence time when the mutation rate is low in the host but very high in the parasite. However, the expected heterozygosity and the expected number of alleles tend to be too small. (6) Consideration of the molecular mechanism of the function of MHC molecules and other biological observations suggest that the most important factor for the maintenance of MHC polymorphism is overdominant selection. However, some experiments are necessary to distinguish between the overdominance and frequency-dependent selection hypotheses.

Gene genealogy and variance of interpopulational nucleotide differences.

A mathematical theory is developed for computing the probability that m genes sampled from one population (species) and n genes sampled from another are derived from l genes that existed at the time of population splitting. The expected time of divergence between the two most closely related genes sampled from two different populations and the time of divergence (coalescence) of all genes sampled are studied by using this theory. It is shown that the time of divergence between the two most closely related genes can be used as an approximate estimate of the time of population splitting (T) only when T identical to t/(2N) is small, where t and N are the number of generations and the effective population size, respectively. The variance of Nei and Li's estimate (d) of the number of net nucleotide differences between two populations is also studied. It is shown that the standard error (Sd) of d is larger than the mean when T is small (T much less than 1). In this case, Sd is reduced considerably by increasing sample size. When T is large (T greater than 1), however, a large proportion of the variance of d is caused by stochastic factors, and increase in the sample size does not help to reduce Sd. To reduce the stochastic variance of d, one must use data from many independent unlinked gene loci.

Polymorphism and balancing selection at major histocompatibility complex loci.

Amino acid replacements in the peptide-binding region (PBR) of the functional major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) genes appear to be driven by balancing selection. Of the various types of balancing selection, we have examined a model equivalent to overdominance that confers heterozygote advantage. As discussed by A. Robertson, overdominance selection tends to maintain alleles that have more or less the same degree of heterozygote advantage. Because of this symmetry, the model makes various testable predictions about the genealogical relationships among different alleles and provides ways of analyzing DNA sequences of Mhc alleles. In this paper, we analyze DNA sequences of 85 alleles at the HLA-A, -B, -C, -DRB1 and -DQB1 loci with respect to the number of alleles and extent of nucleotide differences at the PBR, as well as at the synonymous (presumably neutral) sites. Theory suggests that the number of alleles that differ at the sites targeted by selection (presumably the nonsynonymous sites in the PBR) should be equal to the mean number of nucleotide substitutions among pairs of alleles. We also demonstrate that the nucleotide substitution rate at the targeted sites relative to that of neutral sites may be much larger than 1. The predictions of the presented model are in surprisingly good agreement with the actual data and thus provide means for inferring certain population parameters. For overdominance selection in a finite population at equilibrium, the product of selection intensity (s) against homozygotes and the effective population size (N) is estimated to be 350-3000, being largest at the B locus and smallest at the C locus. We argue that N is of the order of 10(5) and s is several percent at most, if the mutation rate per site per generation is 10(-8).

Extranuclear differentiation and gene flow in the finite island model.

Use of sequence information from extranuclear genomes to examine deme structure in natural populations has been hampered by lack of clear linkage between sequence relatedness and rates of mutation and migration among demes. Here, we approach this problem in two complementary ways. First, we develop a model of extranuclear genomes in a population divided into a finite number of demes. Sex-dependent migration, neutral mutation, unequal genetic contribution of separate sexes and random genetic drift in each deme are incorporated for generality. From this model, we derive the relationship between gene identity probabilities (between and within demes) and migration rate, mutation rate and effective deme size. Second, we show how within- and between-deme identity probabilities may be calculated from restriction maps of mitochondrial (mt) DNA. These results, when coupled with our results on gene flow and genetic differentiation, allow estimation of relative interdeme gene flow when deme sizes are constant and genetic variants are selectively neutral. We illustrate use of our results by reanalyzing published data on mtDNA in mouse populations from around the world and show that their geographic differentiation is consistent with an island model of deme structure.

Gene Flow in Natural Populations of DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER with Special Reference to Lethal Allelism Rates and Protein Variation.

A simultaneous survey of 14 protein loci, together with frequencies and within- and between-population allelism rates of lethal chromosomes, was carried out in five (four Japanese and one Korean) natural populations and one cage population of Drosophila melanogaster. It was found that lethal allelism rates decrease rapidly as geographic distance between two populations increases, while variation at protein loci shows a remarkable similarity over all populations examined. These findings suggest that there are very high levels of gene flow in these natural populations and that selection at protein loci which can maintain substantial geographic variation, if present, is overshadowed by gene flow. There is no indication that invasion of D. melanogaster to the Far East occurred so recently that the frequencies of lethal chromosomes are still in nonequilibrium.

Incomplete maternal transmission of mitochondrial DNA in Drosophila.

The possibility of incomplete maternal transmission of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in Drosophila, previously suggested by the presence of heteroplasmy, was examined by intra- and interspecific backcrosses of Drosophila simulans and its closest relative, Drosophila mauritiana. mtDNAs of offspring in these crosses were characterized by Southern hybridization with two alpha-32P-labeled probes that are specific to paternal mtDNAs. This method could detect as little as 0.03% paternal mtDNA, if present, in a sample. Among 331 lines that had been backcrossed for ten generations, four lines from the interspecific cross D. simulans (female) x D. mauritiana (male) showed clear evidence for paternal leakage of mtDNA. In three of these the maternal type was completely replaced while the fourth was heteroplasmic. Since in this experiment the total number of fertilization is known to be 331 x 10 = 3310, the proportion of paternal mtDNA per fertilization was estimated as about 0.1%. The mechanisms and evolutionary significance for paternal leakage are discussed in light of this finding.

Familial chorea and myoclonus epilepsy.

A familial disorder was characterized by chorea, ataxia, myoclonus, convulsions, dementia, and mental retardation. In five cases, the main lesion affected cerebellar dentate nuclei, with nerve cell loss, gliosis, chromatolysis, and grumose degeneration. Fibrous glial cell proliferation was detected in the globus pallidus.

The neutral theory and natural selection in the HLA region.

Based on available DNA sequence data in the HLA region of 4 Mb, we review the degree of polymorphism at 39 loci of which most are involved in the immune system. The extent of nucleotide differences per silent site differs greatly from locus to locus. It is exceptionally high at classical MHC loci, intermediate at six MHC-related pseudogenes as well as at some loci in class I and II regions, and low in the class III region. Different exons of individual MHC loci show also different degrees of silent polymorphism; high in the exons encoding for the peptide binding region (PBR) and low in the exons encoding for trans-membranes and cytoplasmic tails. The degree of polymorphism within MHC allelic lineages is not much smaller than that between allelic lineages, contrary to the expectation where intra-allelic sequence exchanges are restricted. The observation that many allelic lineages at the HLA-DRB1 locus are combinations of distinct motifs in the beta pleated sheet and alpha helix of PBR indicates that sequence exchanges occur even within exon 2. Semi-quantitative analysis is presented about the rate of sequence exchanges between selected and linked neutral regions, although more sequence information is necessary to make definite conclusions. The extraordinary MHC polymorphism is viewed from the dual function of MHC molecules that controls the acquired immune system.